Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 117, Issue 21, 2012, Pages

  Eade, Rosie ^a   Hamilton, Emily ^a   Smith, Doug M ^a   Graham, Richard J ^a   Scaife, Adam A ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY;

DAILY TEMPERATURES; FIRST YEAR; FORCINGS; OBSERVATION DATA SET; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES; PREDICTION SYSTEMS; PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE; RAINFALL EXTREMES; ROOT MEAN SQUARE; SEASONAL PREDICTION; SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS; TEMPERATURE ERROR; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES; TIME-SCALES;

FORECASTING;

CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATOLOGY; DATA SET; DECADAL VARIATION; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL; SEASONAL VARIATION; TIMESCALE;

EUROPE; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84870166190     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2012JD018015     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Alexander, L. V., et al. (2006), Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
2. Arribas, A., et al. (2011), The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting, Mon. Weather Rev., 139(6), 1891-1910, doi:10.1175/ 2010MWR3615.1.
3. Caesar, J., L. Alexander, and R. Vose (2006), Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006280.
4. Clark, R. T., J. M. Murphy, and S. J. Brown (2010), Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043898.
5. Collins, M. (2002), Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: The initial value problem, Clim. Dyn., 19, 671-692, doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0254-8. (Pubitemid 35182200)
6. Collins, M., B. B. B. Booth, G. Harris, J. M. Murphy, D. M. H. Sexton, and M. J. Webb (2006), Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, Clim. Dyn., 27, 127-147, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0. (Pubitemid 43821708)
7. Collins, M., B. B. B. Booth, B. Bhaskaran, G. R. Harris, J. M. Murphy, D. M. H. Sexton, and M. J. Webb (2010), Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles, Clim. Dyn., 36(9-10), 1737-1766, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0808-0.
8. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer, J. M. Murphy, and D. Smith (2010), Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts, ECMWF Tech. Memo. 621, 45 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
9. Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Mara, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson (2002), Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century, Clim. Res., 19, 193-212, doi:10.3354/cr019193. (Pubitemid 34829900)
10. Goddard, L., et al. (2012), A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382- 012-1481-2, in press.
11. Gordon, C, C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, and R. A. Wood (2000), The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dyn., 16, 147-168, doi:10.1007/ s003820050010. (Pubitemid 30192427)
12. Groisman, P. Y., and R. W. Knight (2008), Prolonged dry episodes over the conterminous United States: New tendencies emerging during the last 40 years, J. Clim., 21, 1850-1862, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2013.1. (Pubitemid 351837251)
13. Hamilton, E., R. Eade, R. J. Graham, A. A. Scaife, D. M. Smith, A. Maidens, and C. MacLachlan (2012), Forecasting the number of extreme daily events on seasonal timescales, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03114, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016541.
14. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P. D. Jones, and M. New (2008), A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD010201.
15. Hegerl, G. C, F. W. Zwiers, P. A. Stott, and V. V. Kharin (2004), Detect-ability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes, J. Clim., 17, 3683-3700, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004) 0172.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 39500321)
16. Higgins, R. W., J. E. Janowiak, and Y.-P. Yao (1996), A gridded hourly precipitation data base for the United States (1963-1993), NCEP/Clim. Predict. Cent. Atlas 1, 46 pp., Natl. Cent. for Environ. Predict., College Park, Md.
17. Higgins, R. W., V. E. Kousy, V. B. S. Silva, E. Becker, and P. Xie (2010), intercomparison of daily precipitation statistics over the united states in observations and in NCEP reanalysis products, J. Clim., 23(17), 4637-4650, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3638.1.
18. Kenyon, J., and G. C. Hegerl (2008), Influence of modes of climate variability on global temperature extremes, J. Clim., 21(15), 3872-3889, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2125.1.
19. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers (2000), Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, J. Clim., 13(21), 3760-3788, doi:10.1175/1520-0442 (2000)0132.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 32043285)
20. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers (2005), Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations, J. Clim., 18(8), 1156-1173, doi:10.1175/JCLI3320.1. (Pubitemid 40717074)
21. Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl (2007), Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations, J. Clim., 20(8), 1419-1444, doi:10.1175/JCLI4066.1. (Pubitemid 46681942)
22. Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife (2006), Climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett, 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242. (Pubitemid 44945660)
23. Kunkel, K. E., R. Pielke Jr., and S. A. Changnon (1999), Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: A review, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 80, 1077-1098, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)0802.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 129555586)
24. Kunkel, K. E., X.-Z. Liang, J. Zhu, and Y. Lin (2006), Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth-century "warming hole" in the central United States?, J. Clim., 19, 4137-4153, doi:10.1175/JCLI3848.1. (Pubitemid 44463865)
25. McCabe, G. J., M. A. Palecki, and J. L. Betancourt (2004), Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 101, 4136-4141, doi:10.1073/pnas. 0306738101. (Pubitemid 38405895)
26. McMichael, A., and A. Githeko (2001), Human health, in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, edited by J. McCarthy et al., pp. 451-486, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
27. Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, and D. Nychka (2004), Changes in frost days in simulations of 21st century climate, Clim. Dyn., 23, 495-511, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0442-9. (Pubitemid 39464075)
28. Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel (2009), The relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L23701, doi:10.1029/2009GL040736.
29. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and G. Branstator (2012), Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. east-west differential of heat extremes, J. Clim., 25, 6394-6408, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00655.1.
30. Menéndez, C. G., and A. F. Carril (2010), Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble, Clim. Change, 98(3-4), 359-377, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9735-7.
31. Misra, V., J.-P. Michael, R. Boyles, E. P. Chassignet, M. Griffin, J. J. O'Brien (2012), Reconciling the spatial distribution of the surface temperature trends in the southeastern United States, J. Clim., 25, 3610-3618, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00170.1.
32. Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal (2004), Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a "warming hole," Geophys. Res. Lett, 31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528. (Pubitemid 39583628)
33. Rahmstorf, S., and D. Coumou (2011), Increase of extreme events in a warming world, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 108, 17,905-17,909, doi:10.1073/pnas.1101766108.
34. Robertson, A. W., V. Moron, and Y. Swarinoto (2009), Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall statistics over Indramayu district, Indonesia, Int. J. Climatol, 29(10), 1449-1462, doi:10.1002/joc.1816.
35. Russo, S., and A. Sterl (2011), Global changes in indices describing moderate temperature extremes from the daily output of a climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D03104, doi:10.1029/2010JD014727.
36. Scaife, A. A., C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, A. Moberg, and J. R. Knight (2008), European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Clim., 21(1), 72-83, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1631.1. (Pubitemid 351395659)
37. Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy (2007), Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796-799, doi:10.1126/science. 1139540. (Pubitemid 47257915)
38. Smith, D. M., R. Eade, N. J. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, and A. A. Scaife (2010), Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency, Nat. Geosci., 3, 846-849, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.
39. Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, and B. Kirtman (2012a), What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?, Environ. Res. Lett, 7, 015602, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602.
40. Smith, D. M., R. Eade, and H. Pohlmann (2012b), A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction, Clim. Dyn., in press.
41. Tebaldi, C, K. Hayhoe, J. M. Arblaster, and G. A. Meehl (2006), Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, Clim. Change, 79, 185-211, doi:10.1007/s10584-006- 9051-4. (Pubitemid 44837142)
42. Trenberth, K. E., et al. (2007), Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp., 235-336, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
43. Trewin, B., and H. Vermont (2010), Changes in the frequency of record temperatures in Australia, 1957-2009, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 60, 113-119.
44. Vlcek, O., and R. Huth (2009), Is daily precipitation Gamma-distributed?: Adverse effects of an incorrect use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Atmos. Res., 93(4), 759-766.
45. Walters, D. N., et al. (2011), The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 4(2), 1213-1271, doi:10.5194/gmdd-4-1213-2011.
46. Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller (2009), Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels?, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 1460-1479, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2773.1.
47. Wilks, D. S. (2006), Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd ed., pp. 23-70, Academic, San Diego, Calif.
48. Zeng, Z., W. W. Hsieh, A. Shabbar, and W. R. Burrows (2010), Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7(3), 3521-3550, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-3521-2010.
49. Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth (2006), Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett, 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267. (Pubitemid 44945666)