Climate change scenarios to facilitate stakeholder engagement in agricultural adaptation

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Volumn 17, Issue 8, 2012, Pages 957-973

  Webb, N P ^a   Stokes, C J ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Agriculture; Assessment; Climate scenario; Impacts; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT; AGRICULTURAL POLICY; AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE; ASSESSMENT METHOD; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; FACILITATION; FORAGE; GRAZING PRESSURE; LAND MANAGEMENT; LIVESTOCK; PASTURE; PHYSIOLOGICAL RESPONSE; POLICY MAKING; RAINFALL; RANGELAND; SOIL EROSION; STAKEHOLDER; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AUSTRALIA;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 84869145954     PISSN: 13812386     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-011-9355-1     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Ash AJ, Stafford Smith DM (1996) Evaluating stocking rate impacts in rangelands: Animals don't practice what we preach. Rangel J 18: 216-243.
2. Ash AJ, O'Reagain P, McKeon GM et al (2000) Managing climate variability in grazing enterprises: A case study of Dalrymple Shire, North-Eastern Australia. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-270.
3. Baker BB, Hanson JD, Bourbon RM et al (1993) The potential effects of climate change on ecosystems processes and cattle production on U. S. rangelands. Clim Chang 25: 97-117.
4. Bortolussi G, McIvor JG, Hodgkinson JJ et al (2005) The northern Australian beef industry, a snapshot. 1. Regional enterprise activity and structure. Aust J Exp Agric 45: 1057-1073.
5. Burton I, Lim B (2005) Achieving adequate adaptation in agriculture. Clim Chang 70: 191-200.
6. Byjesh K, Kumar SN, Aggarwal PK (2010) Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15: 413-431.
7. Cobon DH, Stone GS, Carter JO et al (2009) The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. Rangel J 31: 31-49.
8. Crimp SJ, Flood NR, Carter JO et al (2002) Evaluation of the potential impacts of climate change on native pasture production-implications for livestock carrying capacity. Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra.
9. Crimp SJ, Stokes CJ, Howden SM et al (2010) Managing Murray-Darling Basin livestock systems in a variable and changing climate: challenges and opportunities. Rangel J 32: 293-304.
10. CSIRO-BoM 2007. Climate Change in Australia. Technical Report (2007) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale.
11. Cullen BR, Johnson IR, Eckard RJ et al (2009) Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia. Crop Pasture Sci 60: 933-942.
12. Day KA, McKeon GM, Carter JO (1997) Evaluating the risks of pasture and land degradation in native pastures in Queensland. Final Report for the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation project DAQ124A, Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Brisbane.
13. Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V et al (2011) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Climate Dynamics (in press). doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
14. Dessai S, Lu X, Risbey JS (2005) On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning. Glob Environ Chang 15: 87-97.
15. Dessai S, Hulme M, Lempert R, Pielke R Jr (2009) Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate? Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 90(13): 111.
16. Hall WB, McKeon GM, Carter JO et al (1998) Climate change in Queensland's grazing lands: II. An assessment of the impact on animal production from native pastures. Rangel J 20: 177-205.
17. Hassett RC, Wood HL, Carter JO et al (2000) A field method for statewide ground-truthing of a spatial pasture growth model. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 40: 1069-1079.
18. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim Dyn 37: 407-418.
19. Hinton AW (1993) Economics of Beef Production in the Dalrymple Shire. Report QO93005, Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Brisbane.
20. Howden SM, McKeon GM, Walker L et al (1999) Global change impacts on native pastures in south-east Queensland, Australia. Environ Model Softw 14: 307-316.
21. Howden SM, Soussana JF, Tubiello FN et al (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104: 19691-19696.
22. Hulme M, Brown O (1998) Portraying climate scenario uncertainties in relation to tolerable regional climate change. Clim Res 10: 1-14.
23. Hulme M, Mitchell J, Ingram W, Lowe J, Johns T, New M, Vinear D (1999) Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies. Glob Environ Chang 9: S3-S19.
24. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
25. IPCC-TGICA (2007) General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 2. Prepared by TR Carter on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment. pp 66.
26. Jeffrey SJ, Carter JO, Moodie KB et al (2001) Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environ Model Assess 16: 309-330.
27. Littleboy M, McKeon GM (1997) Appendix 2-Subroutine GRASP: Grass Production Model. Documentation of the Marcoola Version of Subroutine GRASP. In Final Project Report DAQ124A, for the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation.
28. Lorenzoni I, Nicholson-Cole S, Whitmarsh L (2007) Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications. Glob Environ Chang 17: 445-459.
29. MacLeod ND, Ash AJ (2001) Development of a spreadsheet herd dynamics model to assess the economic value of forecasts in extensive grazing enterprises. CSIRO, Brisbane.
30. MacLeod ND, Ash AJ, McIvor JG (2004) An economic assessment of the impact of grazing land condition on livestock performance in tropical woodlands. Rangel J 26: 49-71.
31. MacLeod ND, Nelson BS, McIvor JG et al (2009) Wet season resting-economic insights from scenario modelling. Rangel J 31: 143-150.
32. McKeon GM, Ash AJ, Hall W et al (2000) Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in North-East Queensland. In: Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp 227-252.
33. McKeon GM, Hall WB, Henry BK et al (eds) (2004) Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia's rangelands: Learning from History. Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, Brisbane.
34. McKeon GM, Stone GS, Syktus JI et al (2009) Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues. Rangel J 31: 1-29.
35. Measham TG, Preston BL, Smith TF et al (2011) Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (in press). doi: 10. 1007/s11027-022-9301-2.
36. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007) Global Climate Projections. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 100.
37. Mitchell TD (2003) Pattern scaling. An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Clim Chang 60: 217-242.
38. Moriondo M, Bindi M, Kundzewicz W et al (2010) Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climate change and variability. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15: 657-679.
39. Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747-756.
40. Nakicenovic NJ, Alcamo J, Davis G et al (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599.
41. Perring MP, Cullen BR, Johnson IR et al (2010) Modelled effects of rising CO2 concentration and climate change on native perennial grass and sown grass-legume pastures. Clim Res 42: 65-78.
42. Preston BL, Brooke C, Measham TG et al (2009) Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 14: 251-283.
43. Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA et al (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316: 709.
44. Rayner DP (2007) Wind run changes: The dominant factor affecting pan evaporation trends in Australia. J Clim 20: 3379-3394.
45. Rickert KG, Stuth JW, McKeon GM (2000) Modelling pasture and animal production. In: 't Mannetje L, Jones RM (eds) Field and laboratory methods for grassland and animal production research. CAB International, Wallingford, pp 29-65.
46. 2. Acta Oecologica 18: 305-311.
47. Rosentrater LD (2010) Representing and using scenarios for responding to climate change. Climate Change 1: 253-259.
48. Slingo JM, Challinor AJ, Hoskins BJ et al (2005) Introduction: food crops in a changing climate. Philos Trans R Soc B 360: 1983-1989.
49. Stokes CJ, Ash AJ, Tibbett M et al (2005) OzFACE: the Australian savanna free air CO2 enrichment facility and its relevance to carbon-cycling issues in a tropical savanna. Aust J Bot 53: 677-687.
50. Stokes CJ, Ash AJ, Holtum JAM (2008) Savannas face the future: windows into a future CO2-rich world. In: Orr D (ed) Australian Rangeland Society 15th Biennial Conference Proceedings-A climate of change in the rangelands, Charters Towers, Queensland, 2008.
51. Stokes CJ, Crimp S, Gifford R et al (2010) Broadacre Grazing. In: Stokes CJ, Howden SM (eds) Adapting agriculture to climate change. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp 153-170.
52. Tebaldi C, Smith RL, Nychka D et al (2005) Quantifying uncertainty in projection of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J Clim 8: 1524-1540.
53. Twyman C, Fraser ED, Stringer LC et al (2011) Climate science, development practice, and policy interactions in dryland agroecological systems. Ecol Soc 16: 14.
54. Visser H, Folkert RJM, Hoekstra J et al (2000) Identifying key sources of uncertainty in climate change projections. Clim Chang 45: 421-457.
55. Webb NP, Stokes CJ, Scanlan JC (2011) Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change. Climatic Change (in press). doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0236-0.
56. Wheaton EE, MacIver DC (1999) A framework and key questions for adapting to climate variability and change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 4: 215-225.
57. Whetton PH, Hennessey K (2010) Potential benefits of a storyline approach to the provision of regional climate projection information. In: Proceedings of the International Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2010, June 29 to July 1, 2010. Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia, p 363-364.
58. Whetton PH, MacInnes KL, Jones RN et al (2005) Australian climate change projections for impact assessment and policy application: A review. CSIRO, Aspendale.
59. Wilby RL, Dessai S (2010) Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather 65: 180-185.
60. Wilby RL, Charles SP, Zorita E et al (2004) Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods. Supporting Material of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 27pp.
61. Xiao X, Ojima DS, Parton WJ et al (1995) Sensitivity of inner Mongolia grasslands to climate change. J Biogeogr 22: 643-648.