Competitive dynamics in the operating systems market: Modeling and policy implications

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 80, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 88-105

  Lakka, Spyridoula ^a   Michalakelis, Christos ^a   Varoutas, Dimitris ^a   Martakos, Draculis ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS   (Greece)

Author keywords

Competing species; Ecology modeling; Genetic algorithms; Lotka Volterra model; Market competition; Market structure; Open source software

Indexed keywords

COMPETING SPECIES; ECOLOGY MODELING; LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODELS; MARKET COMPETITION; MARKET STRUCTURES; OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE;

COMPETITION; COMPUTER OPERATING SYSTEMS; DYNAMICS; ECOLOGY; GENETIC ALGORITHMS; PUBLIC POLICY;

COMMERCE;

ECOLOGICAL MODELING; GENETIC ALGORITHM; LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL; MODELING; POLICY ANALYSIS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SOFTWARE;

EID: 84868696137     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.011     Document Type: Article

References (83)

1. Curry B., George K.D. Industrial concentration - a survey. J. Ind. Econ. 1983, 31:203-255.
2. Varian H.R., Shapiro C. Information rules: a strategic guide to the network economy 1999, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts.
3. Lakka S., Varoutas D., Martakos D. Impact of OSS on software markets - an evaluation. 4th Mediteranean Conference on Information Systems Athens University of Economics & Business, Athens 2009, 588-599. A. Poulymenakou, N. Pouloudi, K. Pramatari (Eds.).
4. Lakka S., Stamati T., Michalakelis C., Martakos D. The ontology of OSS Business Model: an exploratory study. International Journal of Open Source Software and Processes 2011, 3:39-59.
5. Capek P.G., Frank S.P., Gerdt S., Shields D. A history of IBM's open-source involvement and strategy. IBM Syst. J. 2005, 44:249-257.
6. Bitzer J. Commercial versus open source software: the role of product heterogeneity in competition. Econ. Syst. 2004, 28:369-381.
7. Casadesus-Masanell R., Ghemawat P. Dynamic mixed duopoly: a model motivated by Linux vs. Windows. Manag. Sci. 2006, 52:1072-1084.
8. Economides N., Katsamakas E. Two-sided competition of proprietary vs. open source technology platforms and the implications for the software industry. Law and Economics 2005, NYU.
9. Lin L. Impact of user skills and network effects on the competition between open source and proprietary software. Electron. Commer. Res. Appl. 2008, 7:68-81.
10. Mustonen M. Copyleft - the economics of Linux and other Open Source software. Info. Econ. Pol. 2003, 15:99-121.
11. Kretchmer T. Upgrading and niche usage of PC operating systems. Int. J. Ind. Organ. 2004, 22:1155-1182.
12. Gaudeul A. Competition between Open Source and Proprietary Software: The LaTeX case study. EconWPA 2004, Industrial Organization.
13. Gaudeul A. Consumer welfare and market structure in a model of competition between open source and proprietary software. Int. J. Open Source Softw. Process. 2009, 1:43-65.
14. Schmidt K.M., Schnitzer M. Public subsidies for open source? Some economic policy issues of the software market. Harv. J. Law Technol. 2003, 16:474-502.
15. Murrey J.D. Mathematical Biology 2002, Springer, New York. 3rd ed.
16. Neal D. Introduction to Population Biology 2004, Cambridge University Press, New York.
17. Bass F.M. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Manag. Sci. 1969, 15:215-227.
18. Bass F.M., Krishnamoorthy A., Prasad A., Sethi S.P. Advertising competition with market expansion for finite horizon firms. J. Ind. Manag. Optim. 2005, 1:1-19.
19. Bass F.M., Krishnan T.V., Jain D.C. Why the bass model fits without decision variables. Mark. Sci. 1994, 13:203-223.
20. Givon M., Mahajan V., Muller E. Software piracy: estimation of lost sales and the impact on software diffusion. J. Mark. 1995, 59:29-37.
21. Givon M., Mahajan V., Muller E. Assessing the relationship between user-based market share and unit sales - based market share for pirated software brands in competitive markets. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1997, 55:131-144.
22. Kim N., Chang D.R., Shocker A.D. Modeling intercategory and generational dynamics for a growing information technology industry. Manag. Sci. 2000, 46:496-512.
23. Shocker A.D., Bayus B.l., Kim N.e.a. Product complements and substitutes in the real world: the relevance of "other products". J. Mark. 2004, 68:28-40.
24. Parker P., Gatignon H. Specifying competitive effects in diffusion models: an empirical analysis. Int. J. Res. Mark. 1994, 11:17-39.
25. Dolfsma W., Leydesdorff L. Lock-in and break-out from technological trajectories: modeling and policy implications. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2009, 76:932-941.
26. Maurer S.M., Huberman B.A. Competitive dynamics of web sites. J. Econ. Dyn. Control. 2003, 27:2195-2206.
27. Chiang S.-Y., Wong G.-G. Competitive diffusion of personal computer shipments in Taiwan. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78:526-535.
28. Michalakelis C., Varoutas D., Sphicopoulos T. Estimating market competition based on concepts of ecology modeling. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C Appl. Rev. 2009, 10.1109/TSMCC.2010.2053923.
29. Lee S.-J., Lee D.-J., Oh H.-S. Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: a dynamic competition analysis using Lotka-Volterra model. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2005, 72:1044-1057.
30. López L., Sanjuán M., A.F. Defining strategies to win in the Internet market. Physica A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 2001, 301:512-534.
31. Kreng V.B., Wang H.T. The competition and equilibrium analysis of LCD TV and PDP TV. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78:448-457.
32. Goldberg D.E. Genetic algorithms in search, optimization, and machine learning 1989, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass.
33. Holland J. Adaption in Natural and Artificial Systems 1975, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
34. Venkatesan R., Krishnan T., Kumar V. Evolutionary estimation of macro-level diffusion models using genetic algorithms: an alternative to nonlinear least squares. Mark. Sci. 2004, 23:451-464.
35. Campbell-Kelly M., Garcia-Swartz D.D. Pragmatism Not Ideology: IBM's Love Affair with Open Source Software 2008, SSRN eLibrary.
36. West J., Dedrick J. Scope and timing of deployment: moderators of organisational adoption of the Linux server platform. IT Stand. Res. 2006, 4(2):1-23.
37. Ågerfalk P.J., Fitzgerald B. Outsourcing to an unknown workforce: exploring opensourcing as a global sourcing strategy. MIS Q. 2008, 32:385-409.
38. Ge L., Scott L., VanderWiele M. Putting Linux reliability to the test. DeveloperWorks, IBM, Software Group 2003.
39. Leibovitch E. The business case for Linux. IEEE Softw. 1999, 16:40-44.
40. Dahlander L., Wallin M.W. A man on the inside: unlocking communities as complementary assets. Res. Policy 2006, 35:1243-1259.
41. Morgan L., Finnegan P. How perceptions of open source software influence adoption: an exploratory study. 15th European Conf. Information Systems (ECIS 07) 2007, 973-984. Univ. of St. Gallen.
42. Feller J., Fitzgerald B. Understanding Open Source Software Development 2002, Addison Wesley, Boston, MA.
43. Ven K., Verelst J. The impact of ideology on the organizational adoption of open source software. J. Database Manage. 2008, 19:58-72.
44. Luening E. Windows users pay for hacker insurance available at:, last accessed February 2011. http://news.com.com/2100-1001-258392.html?legacy=cne.
45. Schwarz M., Takhteyev Y. Half a century of public software institutions: open source as a solution to hold-up problem. J. Public Econ. Theory 2010, 12:609-639.
46. Netcraft SSL Survey available at:, last accessed March 2011. http://news.netcraft.com/ssl-survey/.
47. Gillen A., Waldman B. Linux adoption in a global recession. IDC report 2009.
48. Gruber M., Henkel J. New ventures based on open innovation - an empirical analysis of start-up firms in embedded Linux. Int. J. Technol. Manag. 2006, 33:356-372.
49. Snapshot of the embedded Linux market available at:, last accessed December 2011. http://www.linuxfordevices.com/c/a/Linux-For-Devices-Articles/Snapshot-o f-the-embedded-Linux-market-April-2007/.
50. Mobile/Tablet Operating System Market Share available at:, last accessed March 2012. http://marketshare.hitslink.com/mobile-market-share.
51. Gillen A., Waldman B. Linux Adoption in a Global Recession, IDC report 2009, IDC.
52. Vile D., Atherton M. Linux on the desktop. Lessons from mainstream business adoption available at:, last accessed January 2012. http://www.freeformdynamics.com/fullarticle.asp?aid=678&searchFor=Li nux%20desktop.
53. Miller B.P., Koski D., Lee C.P., Maganty V., Murthy R., Natarajan A., Steidl J. Fuzz Revisited: A Re-examination of the Reliability of UNIX Utilities and Services, in: Computer Sciences Technical Report 1995, University of Wisconsin, Madison.
54. Vaughan-Nichols S.J. Can You Trust This Penguin? available at: Article no longer available from ZDNet site but archived at, last accessed February 2011. http://web.archive.org/web/20010606035231/http://www.zdnet.com/sp/storie s/issue/0,4537,2387282,00.htm.
55. Forrester J.E., Miller B.P. An Empirical Study of the Robustness of Windows NT Applications Using Random Testing. 4th USENIX Windows Systems Symposium, Seattle 2000.
56. Market Share Statistics available at:, last accessed February 2011. http://marketshare.hitslink.com/.
57. W3Schools_OS: OS Platform Statistics available at:, last accessed January 2011. http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp.
58. StatsCounter available at:, last accessed February 2011. http://gs.statcounter.com.
59. West J. How open is open enough? Melding proprietary and open source platform strategies. Res. Policy 2003, 32:1259-1285.
60. Hubbard J. A Brief History of FreeBSD available at:, last accessed March 2011. http://docs.freebsd.org/doc/2.1.7-RELEASE/usr/share/doc/handbook/handboo k3.html.
61. Begon M., Townsend C., Harper J. From individuals to ecosystems 2006, Blackwell Publishing.
62. Modis T. Technological forecasting at the stock market. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1999, 62:173-202.
63. Bhargava S.C. Generalized Lotka-Volterra equations and the mechanism of technological substitution. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1989, 35:319-326.
64. Porter A.L., Roper A.T., Mason T.W., Rossini F.A., Banks J. Forecasting and management of technology 1991, Wiley, New York.
65. Begon M., Townsend C., H.J. From individuals to ecosystems 2006, Blackwell Publishing.
66. Boyce W.E., DiPrima R.C. Elementary differential equations and boundary value problems 2005, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ.
67. Berchtold A. Estimation in the mixture transition distribution model. J. Time Ser. Anal. 2001, 22:379-397.
68. Cosslett S.R. Efficient estimation of discrete-choice models. Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Economic Applications 1981, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. C.F. Manski, D. McFadden (Eds.).
69. Wang F.-K., Chang K.-K. Modified diffusion model with multiple products using a hybrid GA approach. Expert Syst. Appl. 2009, 36:12613-12620.
70. Venkatesan R., Kumar V. A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers. Int. J. Forecast. 2002, 18:625-646.
71. Sim K.M., An B. Evolving Best-Response Strategies for Market-Driven Agents Using Aggregative Fitness GA. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C Appl. Rev. 2009, 39:284-298.
72. Krovi R., Graesser A.C., Pracht W.E. Agent behaviors in virtual negotiation environments. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C 1999, 29:15-25.
73. Guo Z.X., Wong W.K., Leung S.Y.S., Fan J.T., Chan S.F. A genetic-algorithm-based optimization model for solving the flexible assembly line balancing problem with work sharing and workstation revisiting. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C 2008, 38:218-228.
74. Bayir M.A., Toroslu I.H., Cosar A. Genetic algorithm for the multiple-query optimization problem. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C 2007, 37:147-153.
75. Wang Y., Cai Z.X., Guo G.Q., Zhou Y.R. Multiobjective optimization and hybrid evolutionary algorithm to solve constrained optimization problems. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part B 2007, 37:560-575.
76. W3Schools Statistics available at:, last accessed January 2011. http://www.w3schools.com/about/about_pagehits.asp.
77. Relly J.E., Sabharwal M. Perceptions of transparency of government policymaking: A cross-national study. Gov. Inf. Q. 2009, 26:148-157.
78. McDermott P. Building open government. Gov. Inf. Q. 2010, 27:401-413.
79. EU-Ministerial-Declaration, EU Ministerial Declaration on eGovernment. 5th Ministerial eGovernment Conference, Malmoe, Sweden 2009.
80. Comino S., Manenti F.M. Government Policies Supporting Open Source Software for the Mass Market. Rev. Ind. Organ. 2005, 26:217-240.
81. Zissis D., Lekkas D. Securing e-Government and e-Voting with an open cloud computing architecture. Gov. Inf. Q. 2011, 28:239-251.
82. Maldonado E. The Process of Introducing FLOSS in the Public Administration: The Case of Venezuela. J. Assoc. Inf. Syst. 2010, 11:756-783.
83. Lewis J.A. Government Open Source Policies available at:, last accessed January 2011. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/0807218_government_opensource_polici es.pdf.