A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 5, Issue 11, 2012, Pages 783-787

  Reichler, Thomas ^a   Kim, Junsu ^a   Manzini, Elisa ^b   Kröger, Jürgen ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; STRATOSPHERE; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; TROPOSPHERE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 84868561436     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1586     Document Type: Article

References (62)

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32. Baldwin, M. P., Thompson, D. W. J., Shuckburgh, E. F., Norton, W. A. & Gillett, N. P. Weather from the stratosphere? Science 301, 317-319 (2003).
33. Manzini, E., Cagnazzo, C., Fogli, P. G., Bellucci, A. & Müller, W. A. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling at inter-decadal time scales: Implications for the North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L05801 (2012).
34. Hasselmann, K. Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory. Tellus 28, 473-485 (1976).
35. Baldwin, M. P. et al. Stratospheric memory and extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301, 636-640 (2003).
36. Cohen, J., Barlow, M. & Saito, K. Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter. J. Clim. 22, 4418-4426 (2009).
37. Gillett, N. P. et al. How linear is the Arctic Oscillation response to greenhouse gases? J. Geophys. Res. 107, 4022 (2002).
38. Butchart, N., Austin, J., Knight, J. R., Scaife, A. A. & Gallani, M. L. The response of the stratospheric climate to projected changes in the concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1992 to 2051. J. Clim. 13, 2142-2159 (2000).
39. Baldwin, M. P. & Dunkerton, T. J. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294, 581-584 (2001).
40. Hakkinen, S. & Rhines, P. B. Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s. Science 304, 555-559 (2004).
41. Delworth, T. L. & Greatbatch, R. J. Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux forcing. J. Clim. 13, 1481-1495 (2000).
42. Eden, C. & Jung, T. North Atlantic interdecadal variability: Oceanic response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865-1997). J. Clim. 14, 676-691 (2001).
43. Wittenberg, A. T. Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12702 (2009).
44. Häkkinen, S. Variability of the simulated meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic for the period 1951-1993. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 10991-11007 (1999).
45. Lohmann, K., Drange, H. & Bentsen, M. A possible mechanism for the strong weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the mid-1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L15602 (2009).
46. Delworth, T., Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J. Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Clim. 6, 1993-2011 (1993).
47. Msadek, R., Frankignoul, C. & Li, L. Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: A model study. Clim. Dynam. 36, 1255-1276 (2011).
48. Mosedale, T. J., Stephenson, D. B., Collins, M. & Mills, T. C. Granger causality of coupled climate processes: Ocean feedback on the North Atlantic oscillation. J. Clim. 19, 1182-1194 (2006).
49. Cohen, J., Barlow, M., Kushner, P. J. & Saito, K. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with Eurasian land surface variability. J. Clim. 20, 5335-5343 (2007).
50. Ottera, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H. & Suo, L. External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nature Geosci. 3, 688-694 (2010).
51. Ineson, S. et al. Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nature Geosci. 4, 753-757 (2011).
52. Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Vallis, G. K. & Folland, C. K. A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18715 (2005).
53. Plumb, R. A. & Semeniuk, K. Downward migration of extratropical zonal wind anomalies. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 4223 (2003).
54. Hakkinen, S., Rhines, P. B. & Worthen, D. L. Atmospheric blocking and Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability. Science 334, 655-659 (2011).
55. Martius, O., Polvani, L. M. & Davies, H. C. Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L14806 (2009).
56. Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L. & Roeckner, E. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453, 84-88 (2008).
57. Smith, D. M. et al. Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nature Geosci. 3, 846-849 (2010).
58. Mehta, V. et al. Decadal climate predictability and prediction: Where are we Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92 637-640
59. Reichler, T. & Kim, J. How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 303-311 (2008).
60. Delworth, T. L. & Mann, M. E. Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dynam. 16, 661-676 (2000).
61. Schlesinger, M. E. & Ramankutty, N. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature 367, 723-726 (1994).
62. Gerber, E. P. et al. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D00M06 (2010).