Application of WRF 3DVAR to operational typhoon prediction in Taiwan: Impact of outer loop and partial cycling approaches

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 27, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 1249-1263

  Hsiao, Ling Feng ^a   Chen, Der Song ^b   Kuo, Ying Hwa ^c   Guo, Yong Run ^c   Yeh, Tien Chiang ^b   Hong, Jing Shan ^b   Fong, Chin Tzu ^b   Lee, Cheng Shang ^d  

^a NATIONAL APPLIED RESEARCH LABORATORIES   (Taiwan)

^b CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU   (Taiwan)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^d NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

Data assimilation; Hurricanes typhoons; Model initialization; Numerical weather prediction forecasting; Regional models

Indexed keywords

ACCURATE ANALYSIS; ADVANCED RESEARCHES; CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAUX; DATA ASSIMILATION; DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS; FORECAST ERRORS; MODEL INITIALIZATION; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; OBSERVATIONAL DATA; OUTER LOOP; PARTIAL CYCLING; PREDICTION MODEL; RADIO OCCULTATIONS; REGIONAL MODEL; SUBTROPICAL OCEAN; SYSTEMATIC MODELS; VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM; WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODELS; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC;

DATA PROCESSING; HURRICANES; THREE DIMENSIONAL;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; DATA ASSIMILATION; ERROR ANALYSIS; GPS; HURRICANE; NUMERICAL MODEL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; STORM TRACK; TYPHOON; VARIANCE ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH); TAIWAN;

EID: 84868323702     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00131.1     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Andersson, E., and H. Järvinen, 1999: Variational quality control. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 697-722.
2. Anthes, R.A., and Coauthors, 2008: The COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 mission: Early results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 313-333.
3. Cavallo, S. M., J. Dudhia, and C. Snyder, 2011: A multilayer upperboundary condition for longwave radiative flux to correct temperature biases in a mesoscalemodel. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1952-1959.
4. Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land-surface/ hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 569-585.
5. Chen, Y., and C. Snyder, 2007: Assimilating vortex position with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1828-1845.
6. Chou, M.-D., and M. J. Suarez, 1994: An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in general circulation models. NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, Vol. 3, 85 pp.
7. Courtier, P., J.-N. Thépaut, and A. Hollingsworth, 1994: A strategy for operational implementation of 4D-Var, using an incremental approach. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1367-1387.
8. Courtier, P., and Coauthors, 1998: TheECMWFimplementation of threedimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation. Part I: Formulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 1-26.
9. Davis, C. A., and Coauthors, 2008: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced HurricaneWRFmodel. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1990-2005.
10. Guo, Y.-R., H.-C. Lin, X. X. Ma, X.-Y. Huang, C. T. Terng, and Y.-H. Kuo, 2006: Impact of WRF-Var (3DVar) background error statistics on typhoon analysis and forecast. WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR, P4.2. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2006/ abstracts/PSession04/P4_2_Guo.pdf.]
11. Hodur, R. M., 1987: Evaluation of a regional model with an update cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2707-2718.
12. Holland, G. J., and R. T. Merrill, 1984: On the dynamics of tropical cyclone structure changes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 110, 723-745.
13. Hong, S.-Y., Y. Noh, and J. Dudhia, 2006: A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2318-2341.
14. Hsiao, L. F., M. S. Peng, D. S. Chen, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh, 2009: Sensitivity of typhoon track predictions in a regional prediction system to initial and lateral boundary conditions. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 1913-1928.
15. Hsiao, L. F., C. S. Liou, T. C. Yeh, Y. R. Guo, D. S. Chen, K. N. Huang, C. T. Terng, and J. H. Chen, 2010: A vortex relocation scheme for tropical cyclone initialization in Advanced Research WRF. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3298-3315.
16. Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/ detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784-2802.
17. Kleist, D. T., D. F. Parrish, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, W.-S. Wu, and S. Lord, 2009: Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1691-1705.
18. Kurihara, Y., M. A. Bender, R. E. Tuleya, and R. J. Ross, 1995: Improvements in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2791-2801.
19. Lin, N., J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, T. P. Marchok, and M. L. Baeck, 2010: Modeling extreme rainfall, winds, and surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003). Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1342-1361.
20. Liu, Y., D.-L. Zhang, and M. K. Yau, 1997: A multiscale study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit simulation and verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3073-3093.
21. Lynch, P., and X.-Y. Huang, 1992: Initialization of the HIRLAM model using a digital filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1019-1034.
22. Marks, F. D., and L. K. Shay, 1998: Landfalling tropical cyclones: Forecast problems and associated research opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 305-323.
23. Massart, S., B. Pajot, A. Piacentini, and O. Pannekoucke, 2010: On the merits of using a 3D-FGAT assimilation scheme with an outer loop for atmospheric situations governed by transport. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 4509-4522.
24. Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (D14), 16 663-16 682.
25. Molinari, J., and D. Vollaro, 1990: External influences on hurricane intensity. Part II: Vertical structure and response of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1902-1918.
26. Rizvi, S. R. H., Y.-R. Guo, H. Shao, M. Demirtas, and X.-Y. Huang, 2008: Impact of outer loop for WRF data assimilation system (WRFDA).WRF Users'Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR, P5.3. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2008/abstracts/P5-03.pdf.]
27. Rogers, E., and Coauthors, 2009: The NCEP North American Mesoscale modeling system: Recent changes and future plans. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2A4. [Available online at http://ams. confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154114.pdf.]
28. Rosmond, T., and L. Xu, 2006: Development of NAVDAS-AR: Non-linear formulation and outer loop tests. Tellus, 58A, 45-58.
29. Ross, R. J., and Y. Kurihara, 1995:Anumerical study on influences of Hurricane Gloria (1985) on the environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 332-346.
30. Skamarock, W. C., and Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751STR, 113 pp.
31. Tao, W.-K., and Coauthors, 2003: Microphysics, radiation and surface processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 82, 97-137.
32. Torn, R. D., 2010: Performance of a mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) during the NOAA High-Resolution Hurricane Test. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 4375-4392.
33. Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, 2009: Ensemble data assimilation applied to RAINEX observations of Hurricane Katrina (2005). Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2817-2829.
34. Torn, R. D., and C. Davis, 2012: The influence of shallow convection on tropical cyclone track forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2188-2197.
35. Veerse, F., and J.-N. Thépaut, 1998: Multiple-truncated incremental approach for four-dimensional variational assimilation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 1889-1908.
36. Wilks, D. S., 1997: Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. J. Climate, 10, 65-82.
37. Wu, C. C., and Y.-H. Kuo, 1999: Typhoons affecting Taiwan: Current understanding and future challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 67-80.
38. Xiao, Q., Y.-H. Kuo, J. Sun, W. C. Lee, E. Lim, Y. R. Guo, and D. M. Barker, 2005: Assimilation of Doppler radar observations with a regional 3DVAR system: Impact of Doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case. J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 768-788.
39. Zhao, Q., J. Cook, Q. Xu, and P. Harasti, 2006: Using radar wind observations to improve mesoscale numerical weather prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 502-522.