The Elbe river flooding 2002 as seen by an extended regional climate model

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 472-473, Issue , 2012, Pages 169-183

  Kotlarski, Sven ^a   Hagemann, Stefan ^b   Krahe, Peter ^c   Podzun, Ralf ^b   Jacob, Daniela ^b,d  

^a Land Climate Dynamics Group   (Switzerland)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^c FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF HYDROLOGY   (Germany)

^d INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Elbe river flooding; Extreme precipitation; Hydrological climate impact; Regional climate model; Routing scheme

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE IMPACTS; ELBE RIVER; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; ROUTING SCHEME;

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; FLOOD CONTROL; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); RIVERS; ROUTING PROTOCOLS; RUNOFF; SOIL MOISTURE; WATER SUPPLY;

FLOODS;

CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; FLOODING; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; REGIONAL CLIMATE; RIVER DISCHARGE; STREAMFLOW;

ELBE RIVER;

EID: 84868302378     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.020     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Arora V., Boer G. A variable velocity flow routing algorithm for GCMs. J. Geophys. Res. 1999, 104(D24):30965-30979.
2. Bell V.A., Kay A.L., Jones R.G., Moore R.J. Use of a grid-based hydrological model and regional climate model outputs to assess changing flood risk. Int. J. Clim. 2007, 27:1657-1671.
3. Boberg F., Berg P., Thejll P., Gutowski W.J., Christensen J.H. Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models. Clim. Dyn. 2010, 35:1509-1520.
4. Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Görgen, K., Kotlarski, S., Krahe, P., Zappa, M., Schär, C., submitted for publication. Quantifying uncertainty sources in hydrological climate impact scenarios. Water Resour. Res.
5. Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 2002. Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet. Report German Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany, 48 pp.
6. Christensen J.H., Christensen O.B. Climate modelling: severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 2003, 421:805-806.
7. Christensen O.B., Christensen J.H. Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate. Global Planet. Change 2004, 44:107-117.
8. Christensen J.H., Kjellström E., Giorgi F., Lenderink G., Rummukainen M. Weight assignment in regional climate models. Clim. Res. 2010, 44:179-194.
9. Coe M.T. Modeling terrestrial hydrological systems at the continental scale: testing the accuracy of an atmospheric GCM. J. Clim. 2000, 13(4):686-704.
10. Davies H.C. A lateral boundary formulation for multi-level prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 1976, 102:405-418.
11. Ducharne A., Golaz C., Leblois E., Laval K., Polcher J., Ledoux E., de Marsily G. Development of a high resolution runoff routing model, calibration and application to assess runoff from the LMD GCM. J. Hydrol. 2003, 280:207-228.
12. Dümenil, L., Todini, E., 1992. A rainfall-runoff scheme for use in the Hamburg climate model. In: O'Kane, J. (Ed.), Advances in Theoretical Hydrology - A Tribute to James Dooge, European Geophysical Society Series on Hydrological Sciences, no. 1. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 129-157.
13. Durman C.F., Gregory J.M., Hassell D.C., Jones R.G., Murphy J.M. A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2001, 127:1005-1015.
14. DWD, 2011. REGNIE (REGionalisierte NIEederschläge): Verfahrensbeschreibung & Nutzeranleitung. Internal Report German Weather Service DWD, Abteilung Hydrometeorologie, Offenbach 2011.
15. Fischer E.M., Seneviratne S.I., Vidale P.L., Lüthi D., Schär C. Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave. J. Clim. 2007, 20:5081-5099.
16. Fowler H.J., Wilby R.L. Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: implications for managing fluvial flood risk. Water Resour. Res. 2010, 46:W03525.
17. Fowler H.J., Blekinsop S., Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling. Int. J. Clim. 2007, 27:1547-1578.
18. Frei C., Christensen J.H., Déqué M., Jacob D., Jones R.G., Vidale P.L. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J. Geophys. Res 2003, 108(D3):4124.
19. Frei C., Schöll S., Fukutome S., Schmidli J., Vidale P.L. Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D06105.
20. Gibson, J.K., Källberg, P., Uppala, S., Hernandez, A., Nomura, A., Serrano, E., 1997. Era Description. ECMWF Re-Analysis Project Report Series 1, Reading, UK.
21. Graham L.P., Andréasson J., Carlsson B. Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin. Clim. Change 2007, 81:293-307.
22. Grollmann T., Simon S. Flutkatastrophen - Boten des Klimawandels?. Z. Versicher. 2002, 53:682-689.
23. Hagemann S., Dümenil L. A parametrization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale. Clim. Dyn. 1998, 14:17-31.
24. Hagemann S., Dümenil Gates L. Validation of the hydrological cycle of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses using the MPI hydrological discharge model. J. Geophys. Res. 2001, 106:1503-1510.
25. Hagemann S., Dümenil Gates L. Improving a subgrid runoff parameterization scheme for climate models by the use of high resolution data derived from satellite observations. Clim. Dyn. 2003, 21:349-359.
26. Hagemann S., Machenhauer B., Jones R., Christensen O.B., Deque M., Jacob D., Vidale P.L. Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe. Clim. Dyn. 2004, 23:547-567.
27. Hagemann S., Chen C., Haerter J.O., Heinke J., Gerten D., Piani C. Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models. J. Hydrometeorol. 2011, 12:556-578.
28. Hanel M., Buishand T.A. Multi-model analysis of RCM simulated 1-day to 30-day seasonal precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic. J. Hydrol. 2012, 412-413:141-150.
29. Haylock M.R., Hofstra N., Klein Tank A.M.G., Klok E.J., Jones P.D., New M. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:D20119.
30. Herrera S., Fita L., Fernández J., Gutiérrez J.M. Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the ENSEMBLES regional climate multimodel simulations over Spain. J. Geophys. Res. 2010, 115:D21117.
31. Hofstra N., Haylock M., New M., Jones P.D. Testing E-OBS European high-resolution gridded data set of daily precipitation and surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 2009, 114:D21101.
32. Hofstra N., New M., McSweeney C. The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data. Clim. Dyn. 2010, 35:841-858.
33. Hohenegger C., Brockhaus P., Schär C. Towards climate simulations at cloud-resolving scales. Meteorol. Z. 2008, 17(4):383-394.
34. IKSE, 2005. Die Elbe und ihr Einzugsgebiet. Ein Geographisch-Hydrologischer und Wasserwirtschaftlicher überblick. Report IKSE International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe River, Magdeburg, 258 pp. <>. http://www.ikse-mkol.org.
35. Jacob D. A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2001, 77:61-73.
36. Jacob D., Podzun R. Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1997, 63:119-129.
37. Jacob D., Bärring L., Christensen O.B., Christensen J.H., de Castro M., Déqué M., Giorgi F., Hagemann S., Hirschi M., Jones R., Kjellström E., Lenderink G., Rockel B., Sánchez E., Schär C., Seneviratne S.I., Somot S., van Ulden A., van den Hurk B. An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Clim. Change 2007, 81:31-52.
38. Jungclaus J., Keenlyside N., Botzet M., Haak H., Luo J.-J., Latif M., Marotzke J., Mikolajewicz U., Roeckner E. Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J. Clim. 2006, 19:3952-3972.
39. Kleinen T., Petschel-Held G. Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change. Clim. Change 2007, 81:283-312.
40. Kleinn J., Frei C., Gurtz J., Lüthi D., Vidale P.L., Schär C. Hydrologic simulations in the Rhine basin driven by a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110:D04102.
41. Kotlarski, S., 2007. A Subgrid Glacier Parameterisation for Use in Regional Climate Modelling. PhD thesis. Reports on Earth System Science No. 42, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 199 pp.
42. Kyselý J., Beranová R. Climate-change effects on extreme precipitation in central Europe: uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2009, 95:361-374.
43. Leander R., Buishand T.A. Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows. J. Hydrol. 2007, 332:487-496.
44. Lenderink G. Exploring metrics of extreme daily precipitation in a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Clim. Res. 2010, 44:151-166.
45. Lenderink G., Buishand A., van Deursen W. Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2007, 11(3):1145-1159.
46. Lo J.C.-F., Yang Z.-L., Pielke R.A. Assessment of three dynamical climate downscaling methods using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:D09112.
47. Lohmann D., Nolte-Holube R., Raschke E. A large-scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization schemes. Tellus 1996, 48A:708-721.
48. Majewski, D., 1991. The Europa-Modell of the Deutscher Wetterdienst. ECMWF Seminar on Numerical Methods in Atmospheric Models, vol. 2, pp. 147-191.
49. Matsumura S., Yamazaki K., Tokioka T. Summertime land-atmosphere interactions in response to anomalous springtime snow cover in northern Eurasia. J. Geophys. Res. 2010, 115:D20107.
50. Miller J.R., Russell G.L., Caliri G. Continental-scale river flow in climate models. J. Clim. 1994, 7:914-928.
51. Mudelsee M., Börngen M., Tetzlaff G., Grünewald U. Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: role of cyclone pathway " Zugstrasse Vb" J. Geophys. Res. 2004, 109:D23101.
52. Nikulin G., Kjellström E., Hansson U., Strandberg G., Ullerstig A. Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations. Tellus 2011, 63A:41-55.
53. Oki T., Sud Y.C. Design of total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP) - a global river channel network. Earth Interact. 1998, 2:1-37.
54. 2 warming. Clim. Dyn. 2007, 28:351-363.
55. Piani C., Haerter J., Coppola E. Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2011, 99:187-192.
56. Qian J.-H., Seth A., Zebiak S. Reinitialized versus continuous simulations for regional climate downscaling. Mon. Weather Rev. 2003, 131:2857-2874.
57. Rajczak, J., Pall, P., Schär, C., submitted for publication. Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine Region. J. Geophy. Res.
58. Richter, D., 1995. Ergebnisse methodischer Untersuchungen zur Korrektur des systematischen Messfehlers des Hellmann-Niederschlagsmessers. Internal Report German Weather Service DWD, No. 194.
59. Roads J., Chen S.-C., Kanamitsu M. US regional climate simulations and seasonal forecasts. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108(D16):8606.
60. Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., 1996. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Report 218, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
61. Rudolf, B., Rapp, J., 2003: Das Jahrhunderthochwasser der Elbe: Synoptische Wetterentwicklung und klimatologische Aspekte. In: DWD Klimastatusbericht 2002, Offenbach a.M., pp. 172-187.
62. Seneviratne S.I., Lüthi D., Litschi M., Schär C. Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 2006, 443:205-209.
63. Shabalova M.V., van Deursen W.P.A., Buishand T.A. Assessing future discharge of the river Rhine using regional climate model integrations and a hydrological model. Clim. Res. 2003, 23:233-246.
64. Steiner, H., Riediger, U., Gratzki, A., 2011. The HYRAS data set - A high resolution gridded reference data set covering Germany and neighboring river basins. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 8, EMS2011-589, 11th EMS/10thECAM.
65. Suklitsch, M., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Awan, N.K., Göttel, H., Jacob, D., in press. Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area. Clim. Dyn.
66. Themeßl M.J., Gobiet A., Heinrich G. Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal. Clim. Change 2012, 112:449-468.
67. Ulbrich U., Brücher T., Fink A.H., Leckebusch G.C., Krüger A., Pinto J.G. The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 - rainfall periods and flood development. Weather 2003, 58:371-377.
68. Ulbrich U., Brücher T., Fink A.H., Leckebusch G.C., Krüger A., Pinto J.G. The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change. Weather 2003, 58:434-442.
69. van Pelt S.C., Kabat P., ter Maat H.W., van den Hurk B.J.J.M., Weerts A.H. Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias corrected regional climate model input. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 13:2387-2397.
70. Vörösmarty C.J., Moore B., Grace A.L., Gildea M.P., Melillo J.M., Peterson B.J., Rastetter E.B., Steudler P.A. A continental-scale model of water balance and fluvial transport: application to South America. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 1989, 3:241-265.
71. Walter, A., Imbery, F., Steiner, H., Riediger, U., 2011. The E-OBS and HYRAS precipitation data sets - comparison. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, EGU 2011-10896-1, EGU General Assembly 2011.