Grey theory analysis of online population and online game industry revenue in Taiwan

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 80, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 175-185

  Chang, Tsung Sheng ^a   Ku, Cheng Yuan ^a   Fu, Hsin Pin ^b  

^a NATIONAL CHUNG CHENG UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^b NATIONAL KAOHSIUNG UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

Demographics; GM(1,1) model; Grey forecasting; Market forecasting; Online game; Online population

Indexed keywords

DEMOGRAPHICS; GM (1 , 1) MODEL; GREY FORECASTING; MARKET FORECASTING; ON-LINE GAMES; ONLINE POPULATION;

ECONOMICS; FORECASTING; INDUSTRY; SYSTEM THEORY; WORLD WIDE WEB;

COMMERCE;

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION; INTERNET; MARKET CONDITIONS; MODELING; THEORETICAL STUDY;

CHINA; HONG KONG; MACAU; TAIWAN;

EID: 84868201778     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.009     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. The Chinese online games market white book 2009 2010, Ministry of Culture of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, China, Available online at: http://www.ccnt.gov.cn/sjzz/whscs/zhxw/201001/t20100119_76449.html (accessed 2011/3/8).
2. 2008-2009 China online game industry research report brief version 2009, iResearch, Shanghai, China, Available online at: http://english.iresearch.com.cn/reports/Online_Service/detailreports.asp?id=9068 (accessed 2011/3/1).
3. Fogel R.W. Economic growth, population theory, and physiology: the bearing of long-term processes on the making of economic policy. Am. Econ. Rev. 1994, 84(3):369-395.
4. 2010 Survey on the Internet Usage 2010, Korea Internet & Security Agency, Seoul, Korea, Available online at: http://isis.kisa.or.kr/eng/ (accessed 2012/4/11).
5. The 27th China Internet development statistics report 2011, China Internet Network Information Center, Beijing, China, Available online at: http://www.cnnic.cn/research/bgxz/tjbg/201101/P020110221534255749405.pdf (accessed 2012/4/11).
6. Communications usage trend survey in 2010 Compiled 2011, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, Japan, Available online at: http://www.soumu.go.jp/johotsusintokei/statistics/data/110518_1.pdf (accessed 2012/4/14).
7. Wigder Z.D., Johnson C., Sehgal V., McGowan B. Global online population forecast, 2009 to 2014 2010, Forrester Research, Cambridge, MA.
8. What Americans Do Online: Social Media and Games Dominate 2010, Nielsenwire, New York, NY, Available online at: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/what-americans-do-online-social-media-and-games-dominate-activity/ (accessed 2011/3/8).
9. Griffiths M.D., Davies M.N.O., Chappell D. Demographic factors and playing variables in online computer gaming. Cyberpsychol. Behav. 2004, 7(4):479-487.
10. Chambers C., Feng W.C., Sahu S., Saha D., Brandt D. Characterizing online games. IEEE/ACM Trans. Netw. 2010, 18(3):899-910.
11. Adamic L.A., Huberman B.A. The web's hidden order. Commun. ACM 2001, 44(9):55-60.
12. LaPlante D.A., Schumann A., LaBrie R.A., Shaffer H.J. Population trends in Internet sports gambling. Comput. Hum. Behav. 2008, 24(5):2399-2414.
13. Javalgi R., Cutler B., Todd P. An application of an ecological model to explain the growth of strategies of Internet firms: the cases of eBay and Amazon. Eur. Manage. J. 2004, 22(4):464-470.
14. Khemchandani R., Jayadeva C.Suresh Regularized least squares fuzzy support vector regression for financial time series forecasting. Expert Syst. Appl. 2009, 36(1):132-138.
15. Wang Y.H., Dang Y.G., Li Y.Q., Liu S.F. A new method for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model. J. Grey Syst. 2009, 21(3):301-308.
16. Li D.C., Chang C.J., Chen C.C., Chen W.C. Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach-an Asian case. Omega-Int. J. Manage. Sci. 2012, (6):767-773.
17. Wang S.J., Wang W.L., Huang C.T., Chen S.C. Improving inventory effectiveness in RFID-enabled global supply chain with Grey forecasting model. J. Strateg. Inf. Syst. 2011, 20(3):307-322.
18. Hsu L.C. Applying the grey prediction model to the global integrated circuit industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2003, 70(6):563-574.
19. Lin C.T., Wang S.M. Engineering officers of national vessels in Taiwan. Int. J. Inf. Manage. Sci. 2000, 11(4):13-30.
20. Lee S.C., Shih L.H. Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: a case study of renewable energy in Taiwan. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78(7):1242-1253.
21. Tai Y.Y., Lin J.Y., Chen M.S., Lin M.C. A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78(7):1254-1267.
22. Lu X., Lu W. Pre-alarm model of diesel vapour detection and alarm based on grey forecasting. Measurement 2012, 45(4):656-662.
23. The newest research report by IDC/Report of online game marker in Asia/Pacific: The market share of Taiwan only falls behind South Korea 2003, International Data Corporation (IDC), IDC Taiwan Press, Taiwan.
24. Hsu C.L., Lu H.P. Why do people play on-line games? An extended TAM with social influences and flow experience. Inf. Manage. 2004, 41(7):853-868.
25. Ko C.H., Yen J.Y., Chen C.C., Chen S.H., Yen C.F. Gender differences and related factors affecting online gaming addiction among Taiwanese adolescents. J. Nerv. Ment. Dis. 2005, 193(4):273-277.
26. Wan C.S., Chiou W.B. Psychological motives and online games addiction: a test of flow theory and humanistic needs theory for Taiwanese adolescents. Cyberpsychol. Behav. 2006, 9(3):317-324.
27. Taylor T.L. Play Between Worlds: Exploring Online Game Culture 2006, The MIT Press, Massachusetts.
28. Wu J., Li P., Rao S. Why they enjoy virtual game worlds? An empirical investigation. J. Electron. Commer. Res. 2008, 9(3):219-230.
29. Shi Y., Shi K. The research on semiotics applications in the Internet time. Paper presented at the meeting of IEEE 9th International Conference on Computer-Aided Industrial Design and Conceptual Design, Kunming, China 2008, 806-811.
30. Huvila I., Holmberg K., Ek S., Widén-Wulff G. Social capital in second life. Online Inf. Rev. 2010, 34(2):295-316.
31. Hsu C.L., Lu H.P. Consumer behavior in online game communities: a motivational factor perspective. Comput. Hum. Behav. 2007, 23(3):1642-1659.
32. de Freitas S., Neumann T. The use of 'exploratory learning' for supporting immersive learning in virtual environments. Comput. Educ. 2009, 52(2):343-352.
33. Maclnnes L., Hu L. Business models and operational issues in the Chinese online game industry. Telematics Inform. 2007, 24(2):130-144.
34. Bakkes S., Spronck P., van den Herik J. Rapid and reliable adaptation of video game AI. IEEE Trans. Comput. Intell. AI Games 2009, 1(2):93-104.
35. Fattah H., Paul P. Gaming gets serious. Am. Demogr. 2002, 24(5):38-43.
36. Lee M.S., Ko Y.H., Song H.S., Kwon K.H., Lee H.S., Nam M., Jung I.K. Characteristics of Internet use in relation to game genre in Korean adolescents. Cyberpsychol. Behav. 2007, 10(2):278-285.
37. Yee N. The demographics, motivations and derived experiences of users of massively-multiuser online graphical environments. Presence: Teleoper. Virtual Environ. 2006, 15(3):309-329.
38. Williams D., Yee N., Caplan S.E. Who plays, how much, and why? Debunking the stereotypical gamer profile. J. Comput.-Mediat. Commun. 2008, 13(4):993-1018.
39. Wu C.R., Chang C.W., Lin H.L. A forecast model for evaluating physicians' supply and demand in the Taiwanese remote islands. J. Grey Syst. 2009, 21(1):25-34.
40. Mao M., Chirwa E.C. Application of grey model GM(1,1) to vehicle fatality risk estimation. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2006, 73(5):588-605.
41. Akay D., Atak M. Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey. Energy 2007, 32(9):1670-1675.
42. Chen S., Chen B.Y. Applying DEA, MPI, and grey model to explore the operation performance of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78(3):536-546.
43. Deng J.L. Introduction to grey system theory. J. Grey Syst. 1989, 1(1):1-24.
44. Deng J.L. The Theory and Application of Grey System 2000, Gau Lih Books Company, Taiwan.
45. Online games market in Taiwan 2007, Pearl Research, San Francisco, CA.
46. Loomis D.G., Taylor L.D. Forecasting the Internet: understanding the explosive growth of data communications 2001, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
47. Wu J., Liu D. The effects of trust and enjoyment on intention to play online games. J. Electron. Commer. Res. 2007, 8(2):128-140.
48. Mehroof M., Griffiths M.D. Online gaming addiction: the role of sensation seeking, self-control, neuroticism, aggression, state anxiety, and trait anxiety. Cyberpsychol. Behav. Soc. Netw. 2010, 13(3):313-316.
49. Lin C.C., Yang H.J., Kuo L.H. Behaviour analysis of Internet survey completion using decision trees: an exploratory study. Online Inf. Rev. 2009, 33(1):117-134.