Assessment of climate change impact on floods using weather generator and continuous rainfall-runoff model

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 32, Issue 13, 2012, Pages 1997-2006

  Khazaei, Mohammad Reza ^a,b   Zahabiyoun, Bagher ^a   Saghafian, Bahram ^c  

^a IRAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Iran)

^b ISLAMIC AZAD UNIVERSITY   (Iran)

^c ISLAMIC AZAD UNIVERSITY   (Iran)

Author keywords

Climate change; Continuous rainfall runoff model; Flood; Weather Generators

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE VARIABLES; CONTINUOUS RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; CONTINUOUS TIME; DOWN-SCALING; EMISSION SCENARIO; EXTREME RAINFALL; FLOOD FREQUENCY; FUTURE CLIMATE; LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; TIME STEP; WEATHER GENERATOR;

FLOODS; RUNOFF;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; DOWNSCALING; EXTREME EVENT; FLOOD FORECASTING; FLOOD FREQUENCY; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING;

IRAN;

EID: 84867927895     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2416     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Abdulla FA, Lettenmaier DP, Liang X. 1999. Estimation of the ARNO model baseflow parameters using daily streamflow data. Journal of Hydrology 222: 37-54.
2. Burlando P, Rosso R. 1993. Stochastic models of temporal rainfall: Reproducibility, estimation and prediction of extreme events. In Stochastic Hydrology in its Use in Water Resources Systems Simulation and Optimization, Salas JD, Harboe R, Marco-Segura J (Editors). Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, 137-173.
3. Burton A, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Cowpertwait PSP, O'Connell PE. 2008. RainSim: A spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system. Environmental Modelling and Software 23: 1356-1369, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.04.003.
4. Caron A, Leconte R, Brissette F. 2008. An Improved Stochastic Weather Generator for Hydrological Impact Studies. Canadian Water Resources Journal 33: 233-255.
5. Cowpertwait PSP. 1991. Further developments of the neyman-scott clustered point process for modeling rainfall. Water Resources Research 27: 1431-1438.
6. Cowpertwait PSP. 1994. Generalized point process model for rainfall. Proceedings of The Royal Society of London, Series A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences 447: 23-37.
7. Cowpertwait PSP, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE. 2002. A space-time Neyman-Scott model of rainfall: Empirical analysis of extremes. Water Resources Research 38:DOI: Artn 1131 DOI 10.1029/2001wr000709.
8. Cowpertwait PSP, OConnell PE, Metcalfe AV, Mawdsley JA. 1996a. Stochastic point process modelling of rainfall. 2. Regionalisation and disaggregation. Journal of Hydrology 175: 47-65.
9. Cowpertwait PSP, OConnell PE, Metcalfe AV, Mawdsley JA. 1996b. Stochastic point process modelling of rainfall. 1. Single-site fitting and validation. Journal of Hydrology 175: 17-46.
10. Dubrovsky M, Buchtele J, Zalud Z. 2004. High-frequency and low-frequency variability in stochastic daily weather generator and its effect on agricultural and hydrologic modelling. Climatic Change 63: 145-179.
11. Evans J, Schreider S. 2002. Hydrological impacts of climate change on inflows to Perth, Australia. Climatic Change 55: 361-393.
12. Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C. 2007. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 27: 1547-1578, DOI: 10.1002/Joc.1556.
13. Hansen JW, Mavromatis T. 2001. Correcting low-frequency variability bias in stochastic weather generators. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 109: 297-310.
14. Holman IP, Tascone D, Hess TM. 2009. A comparison of stochastic and deterministic downscaling methods for modelling potential groundwater recharge under climate change in East Anglia, UK: implications for groundwater resource management. Hydrogeology Journal 17: 1629-1641, DOI: 10.1007/s10040-009-0457-8.
15. IPCC. 1995. In Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds). UK. 878.
16. IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: UK. 1032.
17. Kamali M, Ponnambalam K, Soulis ED 2007. Computationally efficient calibration of WATCLASS Hydrologic models using surrogate optimization. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 4: 2307-2321.
18. Kay A, Davies H, Bell V, Jones R. 2009. Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Climatic Change 92: 41-63.
19. Kay AL, Jones RG, Reynard NS. 2006a. RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change results. Journal of Hydrology 318: 163-172, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.013.
20. Kay AL, Reynard NS, Jones RG. 2006b. RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and validation. Journal of Hydrology 318: 151-162, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.012.
21. Khan MS, Coulibaly P, Dibike Y. 2006. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods using Canadian Global Climate Model predictors. Hydrological Processes 20: 3085-3104, DOI: 10.1002/Hyp.6084.
22. Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL. 2007. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software 22: 1705-1719, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.005.
23. Kilsby CG, Moaven-Hashemi A, O'Connell PE. 2004. Simulation of rainfall extremes: fitting to observed annual maxima, First International Conference on Flood Risk, First International Conference on Flood Risk, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Bath, UK.
24. Leander R, Buishand TA. 2007. Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows. Journal of Hydrology 332: 487-496, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.006.
25. Linde AHT, Aerts JCJH, Bakker AMR, Kwadijk JCJ. 2010. Simulating low-probability peak discharges for the Rhine basin using resampled climate modeling data. Water Resources Research 46:DOI: Artn W03512, 10.1029/2009wr007707.
26. Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Dalezios NR. 2002. Potential climate change impacts on flood producing mechanisms in southern British Columbia, Canada using the CGCMA1 simulation results. Journal of Hydrology 259: 163-188, DOI: Pii S0022-1694(01)00580-7.
27. Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Dalezios N. 2004. Climate Change Implications on Flood Response of a Mountainous Watershed. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution: Focus 4: 331-347.
28. Mareuil A, Leconte R, Brissette F, Minville M. 2007. Impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of floods in the Châteauguay River basin, Canada. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 34: 1048-1060, DOI: 10.1139/l07-022.
29. Mavromatis T, Hansen JW. 2001. Interannual variability characteristics and simulated crop response of four stochastic weather generators. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 109: 283-296.
30. Muzik I. 2002. A first-order analysis of the climate change effect on flood frequencies in a subalpine watershed by means of a hydrological rainfall-runoff model. Journal of Hydrology 267: 65-73, DOI: Pii S0022-1694(02)00140-3.
31. Olsson J, Burlando P. 2002. Reproduction of temporal scaling by a rectangular pulses rainfall model. Hydrological Processes 16: 611-630.
32. Prudhomme C, Jakob D, Svensson C. 2003. Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments. Journal of Hydrology 277: 1-23, DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00065-9.
33. Prudhomme C, Reynard N, Crooks S. 2002. Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrological Processes 16: 1137-1150, DOI: 10.1002/Hyp.1054.
34. Reynard NS, Prudhomme C, Crooks SM. 2001. The flood characteristics of large UK Rivers: Potential effects of changing climate and land use. Climatic Change 48: 343-359.
35. Richter GM, Semenov MA. 2005. Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agricultural Systems 84: 77-97.
36. Roy L, Leconte R, Brissette FP, Marche C. 2001. The impact of climate change on seasonal floods of a southern Quebec River Basin. Hydrological Processes 15: 3167-3179.
37. Semenov MA, Brooks RJ, Barrow EM, Richardson CW. 1998. Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Climate Research 10: 95-107.
38. Sharif M, Burn DH. 2006. Simulating climate change scenarios using an improved K-nearest neighbor model. Journal of Hydrology 325: 179-196.
39. Srikanthan R, McMahon TA. 2001. Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: A review. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 5: 653-670.
40. Todini E. 1988. Il modello afllussi deflussi del fiume Amo. Relazione Generale dello studio per conto della Regione Toscana, Tech. Report, Bologna.
41. Todini E. 1996. The ARNO rainfall-runoff model. Journal of Hydrology 175: 339-382.
42. Wilby RL, Christian WD. 2007. SDSM 4.1- a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts, User Manual. http://co-public.lboro.ac.uk/cocwd/SDSM/SDSMManual.pdf.
43. Wilby RL, Dawson CW, Barrow EM. 2002. SDSM-a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environmental Modelling and Software 17: 147-159, DOI: Pii S1364-8152(01)00060-3.
44. Zhang GP, Savenije HHG. 2005. Rainfall-runoff modelling in a catchment with a complex groundwater flow system: application of the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9: 243-261.