Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models

GCB Bioenergy

Volumn 4, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 773-783

  Böttcher, Hannes ^a   Verkerk, Pieter Johannes ^b   Gusti, Mykola ^a,c   Havlík, Petr ^a,d   Grassi, Giacomo ^e  

^a INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

^b EUROPEAN FOREST INSTITUTE   (Finland)

^c LVIV POLYTECHNIC NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Ukraine)

^d INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Kenya)

^e JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

Author keywords

Bioenergy; Climate policy; EU; Forest management; Forest sink; Modeling

Indexed keywords

BIOMASS; CARBON DIOXIDE; EMISSION CONTROL; EUROPIUM; GREENHOUSE GASES; MODELS; PLANT EXPANSION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

BIO-ENERGY; BIOENERGY POLICIES; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE POLICY; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; FOREST SINK; MITIGATION MEASURES; PLANT PRODUCTIVITY;

FORESTRY;

EID: 84867366173     PISSN: 17571693     EISSN: 17571707     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01152.x     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Anderl M, Freudenschuß A, Köther T et al. (2009). Austria's National Inventory Report 2009. Submission Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Umweltbundesamt, Vienna.
2. Bellassen V, Viovy N, Luyssaert S, Le Maire G, Schelhaas M-J, Ciais P (2011) Reconstruction and attribution of the carbon sink of European forests between 1950 and 2000. Global Change Biology, 17, 3274-3292.
3. Beurskens LWM, Hekkenberg M (2011) Renewable Energy Projections as Published in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States. Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam.
4. Böttcher H (2008) Forest Management for Climate Change Mitigation: Modeling of Forestry Options, their Impact on the Regional Carbon Balance and Implications for a Future Climate Protocol. Vdm Verlag Dr. Müller, Saarbrücken (September 2008).
5. Böttcher H, Kurz WA, Freibauer A (2008) Accounting of forest carbon sinks and sources under a future climate protocol-factoring out past disturbance and management effects on age-class structure. Environmental Science & Policy, 11, 669-686.
6. Capros P, Mantzos L, Tasios N, De Vita A, Kouvaritakis N (2010) EU Energy Trends to 2030 - Update 2009. European Commission Directorate-General for Energy in collaboration with Climate Action DG and Mobility and Transport DG, Brussels.
7. Ciais P, Schelhaas MJ, Zaehle S et al. (2008) Carbon accumulation in European forests. Nature Geoscience, 1, 425-429.
8. Cramer W, Kicklighter DW, Bondeau A et al. (1999) Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): overview and key results. Global Change Biology, 5, 1-15.
9. EC (2009a) Decision no 406/2009/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of member states to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the community's greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020. Official Journal of the European Union, L 140/136.
10. EC (2009b) Directive 2009/28/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. Official Journal of the European Union, L 140/16.
11. Eggers J, Lindner M, Zudin S, Zaehle S, Liski J (2008) Impact of changing wood demand, climate and land use on European forest resources and carbon stocks during the 21st century. Global Change Biology, 14, 2288-2303.
12. Ellison D, Lundblad M, Petersson H (2011) Carbon accounting and the climate politics of forestry. Environmental Science and Policy, 14, 1062-1078.
13. FAOSTAT (2010) Forestry Data. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome. Available at: http://faostat.fao.org (accessed 17 June 2010).
14. Gallaun H, Zanchi G, Nabuurs GJ, Hengeveld G, Schardt M, Verkerk PJ (2010) EU-wide maps of growing stock and above-ground biomass in forests based on remote sensing and field measurements. Forest Ecology and Management, 260, 252-261.
15. Gusti M (2010) An algorithm for simulation of forest management decisions in the global forest model. Artificial Intelligence, N4, 45-49.
16. Gusti M, Kindermann G, (2011) An approach to modeling landuse change and forest management on a global scale. SIMULTECH-2011. Proceedings of 1st International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, Noordwijkerhout, the Netherlands July 29-31 2011. SciTePress - Science and Technology Publications, Portugal.
17. Haskett J, Schlamadinger B, Brown S (2009) Land-based carbon storage and the European union emissions trading scheme: the science underlying the policy. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15, 127-136.
18. Havlík P, Schneider UA, Schmid E et al. (2011) Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets. Energy Policy, 39, 5690-5702.
19. IPCC (2003) Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan.
20. Karjalainen T, Pussinen A, Liski J, Nabuurs G-J, Eggers T, Lapveteläinen T, Kaipainen T (2003) Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget. Forest Policy and Economics, 5, 141-155.
21. Kindermann G, Obersteiner M, Sohngen B et al. (2008) Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 10302-10307.
22. Lindner M, Maroschek M, Netherer S et al. (2010) Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 698-709.
23. Mantau U, Saal U, Prins K et al. (2010) EUwood - real potential for changes in growth and use of EU forests. Final report to the European Commission DG TREN, University of Hamburg, Hamburg.
24. Marland G, Schlamadinger B (1997) Forests for carbon sequestration or fossil fuel substitution? A sensitivity analysis. Biomass and Bioenergy, 13, 389-397.
25. McKechnie J, Colombo S, Chen J, Mabee W, MacLean HL (2011) Forest bioenergy or forest carbon? Assessing trade-offs in greenhouse gas mitigation with wood-based fuels. Environmental Science and Technology, 45, 789-795.
26. MCPFE (2007) State of Europe's forests 2007: the MCPFE report on sustainable forest management in Europe. Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe. Liaison Unit Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
27. Moiseyev A, Solberg B, Kallio AMI, Lindner M (2011) An economic analysis of the potential contribution of forest biomass to the EU RES target and its implications for the EU forest industries. Journal of Forest Economics, 17, 197-213.
28. Mokany K, Raison RJ, Prokushkin AS (2006) Critical analysis of root: shoot ratios in terrestrial biomes. Global Change Biology, 12, 84-96.
29. Nabuurs G-J, Schelhaas M-J, Mohren G.f.M.J, Field CB (2003) Temporal evolution of the European forest sector carbon sink from 1950 to 1999. Global Change Biology, 9, 152-160.
30. Nabuurs GJ, Pussinen A, van Brusselen J, Schelhaas MJ (2007) Future harvesting pressure on European forests. European Journal of Forest Research, 126, 391-400.
31. Nabuurs GJ, Thurig E, Heidema N et al. (2008) Hotspots of the European forests carbon cycle. Forest Ecology and Management, 256, 194-200.
32. Obersteiner M, Böttcher H, Yamagata Y (2010) Terrestrial ecosystem management for climate change mitigation. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2, 271-276.
33. Rametsteiner E, Nilsson S, Böttcher H et al. (2007) Study of the effects of globalization on the economic viability of EU forestry. Final Report of the AGRI Tender Project: AGRI-G4-2006-06, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg. EC Contract Number 30-CE-0097579/00-89.
34. Rautiainen A, Saikku L, Kauppi PE (2010) Carbon gains and recovery from degradation of forest biomass in European Union during 1990-2005. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 1232-1238.
35. Romano D, Arcarese C, Bernetti A et al. (2009) Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2007. ISPRA, Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome.
36. Russ P, Ciscar J-C, Saveyn B et al. (2009) Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 Models. JRC IPTS, Brussels.
37. Sallnäs O (1990) A matrix model of the Swedish forest. Studia Forestalia Suecica, 183, 1-23.
38. Schelhaas MJ, Cienciala E, Lindner M, Nabuurs GJ, Zanchi G (2007a) Selection and Quantification of Forestry Measures Targeted at the Kyoto Protocol and the Convention on Biodiversity. Alterra, Wageningen.
39. Schelhaas MJ, Eggers J, Lindner M et al. (2007b) Model Documentation for the European Forest Information Scenario Model (EFISCEN 3.1.3). Alterra and European Forest Institute, Wageningen and Joensuu.
40. Schneider UA, Havlík P, Schmid E et al. (2011) Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption. Agricultural Systems, 104, 204-215.
41. Smeets EMW, Faaij APC (2007) Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050: an assessment of the drivers that determine the potentials. Climatic Change, 81, 353-390.
42. Trømborg E, Solberg B (2010) Forest sector impacts of the increased use of wood in energy production in Norway. Forest Policy and Economics, 12, 39-47.
43. UNECE/FAO (2011) European Forest Sector Outlook Study II 2010-2030. ECE/TIM/SP/28. UNECE, Geneva.
44. UNECE-FAO (2000) Forest Resources of Europe, CIS, North America, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Contribution to the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000. UN, New York and Geneva.
45. UNFCCC (2010) FCCC/KP/CMP/2010/12/Add.1. Report of the Conference of the Parties Serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol on its Sixth Session, Held in Cancun from 29 November to 10 December 2010 - Addendum. Decision 2/CMP.6: The Cancun Agreements: Land use, land-use change and forestry. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Cancun, Mexico.
46. Verkerk PJ, Anttila P, Eggers J, Lindner M, Asikainen A (2011) The realisable potential supply of woody biomass from forests in the European union. Forest Ecology and Management, 261, 2007-2015.
47. Vilén T, Meyer J, Thürig E, Lindner M, Green T (2005) Improved regional and national level estimates of the carbon stock and stock change of tree biomass for six European countries, (Deliverable 6.1). Improved national estimates of the carbon stock and stock change of the forest soils for six European countries (Deliverable 6.2). European Forest Institute, Joensuu.