Forecasting intentional wildfires using temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelations

International Journal of Wildland Fire

Volumn 21, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 743-754

  Prestemon, Jeffrey P ^a   Chas Amil, Mara L ^b   Touza, Julia M ^c   Goodrick, Scott L ^a  

^a USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF VIGO   (Spain)

Author keywords

arrest; arson; autoregressive; crime; Galicia; incendiary; Poisson; Spain; time series.

Indexed keywords

EID: 84866383078     PISSN: 10498001     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1071/WF11049     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Agnew R, Brezina T, Wright JP, Cullen FT (2002) Strain, personality traits, and delinquency: extending general strain theory. Criminology 40(1), 43-72. doi:10.1111/J.1745-9125.2002.TB00949.X
2. Akers RL (1973) 'Deviant Behavior: a Social Learning Approach.' (Wadsworth Publishing Company, Inc: Bermont, CA)
3. APAS and IDEM (Asociación para la Promoción de Actividades Socioculturales and Instituto de Estudios del Medio) (2005) 'Estado delConocimiento sobre lasCausas de los Incendios Forestales enEspaña.' Available at http://www.idem21.com/descargas/pdfs/CAUSAS-IF.pdf [Verified 10 January 2011]
4. Aptech Systems (2003) 'Gauss 5.0 Software.' (Maple Valley, WA)
5. Associated Press (2003) Catching wildfire arsonists is task that often takes years. North Country Times, 2 November 2003. Available at http://www. nctimes.com/news/article-3b1531e2-3354-5fd8-a747-b7fa6da5c007. html [Verified 7 June 2012]
6. Barrio M, Loureiro M, Chas-Amil ML (2007) Aproximación a las pérdidas económicas ocasionadas a corto plazo por los incendios forestales en Galicia en 2006. Economa Agraria y Recursos Naturales 7(14), 45-64.
7. Becker GS (1968) Crime and punishment: an economic approach. The Journal of Political Economy 76, 169-217. doi:10.1086/259394.
8. Brandt PT, Williams JT (2001) A linear Poisson autoregressive model: the Poisson AR(P) model. Political Analysis 9, 164-184. doi:10.1093/OXFORDJOURNALS. PAN.A004869.
9. Brantingham PL, Brantingham PJ (1993) Environment, routine, and situation: toward a pattern theory of crime. In 'Routine Activity and Rational Choice (Advances in Criminological Theory)'. (Eds RV Clarke, M Felson) Vol. 5, pp. 259-294. (Transaction Publications: New Brunswick, NJ)
10. Burdett K, Lagos R, Wright R (2003) Crime, inequality, and unemployment. The American Economic Review 93, 1764-1777. doi:10.1257/000282803322655536.
11. Burgess R, Akers RL (1966) A differential association-reinforcement theory of criminal behavior. Social Problems 14, 128-147. doi:10.1525/SP.1966. 14.2.03A00020.
12. Butry DT, Prestemon JP (2005) Spatio-temporal wildland arson crime functions. In 'American Agricultural Economics Association 2005. Annual meeting', 24-27 July 2005, Providence, RI. Available at http://purl.umn.edu/ 19197 [Verified 22 February 2011]
13. Castedo Dorado F, Juarez Relaño I, Ramírez Cisneros J, Ruiz Pérez I, Rodríguez Rodríguez C, Velez Fraile L (2007) Utilidad del análisis de la estadística de incendios en las estrategias de prevención y extinción. Un caso de estudio. In 'Proceedings of the 4th International Wildland Fire Conference', 13-17 May 2007, Seville, Spain. (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente: Madrid, Spain)
14. Cernkovich SA, Giordano PC, Rudolph JL (2000) Race, crime, and the American dream. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 37(2), 131-170. doi:10.1177/0022427800037002001.
15. Cohen LE, FelsonM (1979) Social change and crime rate trends: a Routine Activity approach. American Sociological Review 44, 588-605. doi:10.2307/2094589.
16. Cornish D, Clarke RV (Eds) (1986) 'The Reasoning Criminal: Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending.' (Springer-Verlag: New York)
17. Di Tella R, Schargrodsky E (2004) Do police reduce crime? Estimates using the allocation of police forces after a terrorist attack. The American Economic Review 94, 115-133. doi:10.1257/000282804322970733.
18. Goodrick SL (2002) Modification of the Fosberg fire weather index to include drought. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 205-221. doi:10.1071/WF02005.
19. Gould ED, Weinberg BA, Mustard DB (2002) Crime rates and local labor market opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997. The Review of Economics and Statistics 84, 45-61. doi:10.1162/003465302317331919.
20. Griffith DA (2002) A spatial filtering specification for the auto-Poisson model. Statistics & Probability Letters 58(3), 245-251. doi:10.1016/S0167-7152(02)00099-8.
21. Hagan J, Peterson RD (1995) 'Crime and Inequality.' (Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA)
22. Hartkamp AD, De Beurs K, Stein A, White JW (1999) 'Interpolation Techniques for Climate Variables.' Natural Resources Group Geographical Information Series NRG-GIS Series 99-01.
23. (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT): Mexico City, Mexico) Available at http://apps.cimmyt.org/Research/NRG/pdf/NRGGIS%2099-01.pdf [Verified 7 June 2012]
24. Hirschi T (1969) 'Causes of Delinquency.' (University of California Press: Berkeley, CA)
25. Instituto Galego de Estatística (2011) Banco de datos municipal. (Instituto Galego de Estatística) Available at http://www.ige.eu/igebdt/ esq.jsp?paxina=002003003&c=-1&idioma=gl&ruta=navmunicipal. jsp%3FESP%3D [Verified 11 January 2011]
26. Krinsky I, Robb AL (1986) On approximating the statistical properties of elasticities. The Review of Economics and Statistics 68, 715-719. doi:10.2307/1924536.
27. MARM (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino) (2005) Anuario de estadísticas forestales 2005. Available at http://www.mma.es/portal/ secciones/biodiversidad/montes-politica-forestal/estadisticas-forestal/ produccion.htm [Verified 11 January 2011]
28. Martín P (Ed.) (2004) Towards methods for investigating on wildland fire causes. EUFIRELAB, EVR1-CT-2002-40028, Deliverable D-05-02. Available at http://www.eufirelab.org/prive/directory/units-section-5/D-05-03/D- 05-03.pdf [Verified 7 June 2012]
29. Martínez J, Vega-Garcia C, Chuvieco E (2009) Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain. Journal of Environmental Management 90(2), 1241-1252. doi:10.1016/J.JENVMAN. 2008.07.005.
30. Molano FJ, Rodríguez C, Ponte J (2007) 'Informe sobre a Investigación de Incendios Forestais en Galicia. Verán 2006.' (Deputación Provincial de A Coruña: Galicia, Spain)
31. Prestemon JP, Butry DT (2005) Time to burn: modeling wildland arson as an autoregressive crime function. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(3), 756-770. doi:10.1111/J.1467-8276.2005.00760.X
32. Rodríguez y Silva F (2009) La eficiencia económica en la extinción de incendios forestales: una aproximación metodológica desde el diagnóstico del peligro y el registro de la experiencia. In 'Proceedings of Technical Meeting of the Fire Service: Capacity for Managing Forest Fires', 18-19 November 2009, Solsona, Lleida, Spain. Available at http://www.jornadesbombers.ctfc.cat/docs/articles/26-article-F- Rodríguez.pdf [Verified 12 January 2011]
33. SmithSW(2007) 7 detained for arson in Greek fires. CBS News, 11 February 2009. Available at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/24/world/main3202975. shtml [Verified 4 January 2011]
34. Teague B, McLeod R, Pascoe S (2010) 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, Final Report: Volume 1-The Fires and the Fire-Related Deaths. (Government of Victoria: Melbourne, Australia) Available at http://www. royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports [Verified 7 June 2012]
35. USA Department of Justice-Federal Bureau of Investigation (2007) Uniform crime reporting program data (United States): county-level detailed arrest and offense data, 2000-2005. (Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research: Ann Arbor, MI)
36. USDA/USDI (2010) National Interagency Fire Management Integrated Database (NIFMID). Available at http://famweb.nwcg.gov [Verified 30 July 2010]
37. Yatchew A, Griliches Z (1985) Specification error in Probit models. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(1), 134-139. doi:10.2307/1928444.