On the nature of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

Earthquake Spectra

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 1291-1296

  Musson, Roger ^a  

^a BRITISH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTATIONAL COMPLEXITY; SEISMOLOGY;

GROUND MOTION MODEL; KOLMOGOROV; LOGIC TREE; PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT; SEISMIC SOURCE;

COMPUTER CIRCUITS;

EARTHQUAKE EVENT; GROUND MOTION; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; SEISMIC HAZARD; SEISMIC SOURCE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FUZZY LOGIC; PROBABILITY; TREES;

EID: 84866359025     PISSN: 87552930     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1193/1.4000062     Document Type: Review

References (16)

1. Abrahamson, N. A., 2009. The state of the practice of seismic hazard analysis: From the good to the bad, EERI 2009 Distinguished Lecture, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA
2. Abrahamson, N. A., and Bommer, J. J., 2005. Probability and uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis, Earthquake Spectra 21, 603-608.
3. Bommer, J. J., Scherbaum, F., Bungum, H., Cotton, F., Sabetta, F., and Abrahamson, N. A., 2005. On the use of logic trees for ground-motion prediction equations in seismic-hazard analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 95, 377-389.
4. Box, G. P., and Draper, N. R., 1987. Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces, Wiley, New York, 688 pp.
5. Budnitz, R. J., Apostolakis, G., Boore, D. M., Cluft, L. S., Coppersmith, K. J., Cornell, C. A., and Morris, P. A., 1997. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report NUREG/ CR-6372, Washington, D.C.
6. Cotton, F., Scherbaum, F., Bommer, J. J., and Bungum, H., 2006. Criteria for selecting and adjusting ground-motion models for specific target regions: Application to Central Europe and rock sites, Journal of Seismology 10, 137-156.
7. de Finetti, B., 1974. Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment, Wiley, London, 300 pp.
8. Hacking, I., 1975. The Emergence of Probability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 218 pp.
9. Howson, C., and Urbach, P., 2006. Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, Open Court, Chicago, IL
10. McGuire, R. K., Cornell, C. A., and Toro, G. R., 2005. The case for using mean seismic hazard, Earthquake Spectra 21, 879-886.
11. Musson, R. M. W., 2004. Objective validation of seismic hazard source models, in 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, paper 2492, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
12. Musson, R. M. W., 2005. Against fractiles, Earthquake Spectra 21, 887-891.
13. Power, M., Chiou, B., Abrahamson, N. A., Bozorgnia, Y., Shantz, T., and Roblee, C., 2008. An overview of the NGA project, Earthquake Spectra 24, 3-22.
14. Scherbaum, F., and Kuehn, N. M., 2011. Logic tree branch weights and probabilities: Summing up to one is not enough, Earthquake Spectra 27, 1237-1251.
15. von Mises, R., 1957. Probability, Statistics, and Truth, Allen and Unwin, London, 244 pp.
16. Youngs, R., Chiou, S.-J., Silva,W. J., and Humphrey, J. R., 1997. Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes, Seismological Research Letters 68, 58-73.