Innovative classification of technology foresight methods

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

Volumn 17, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 700-715

  Magruk, Andrzej ^a  

^a BIALYSTOK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Poland)

Author keywords

classification; cluster analysis; research methodology; technology foresight; typology

Indexed keywords

EID: 84866320075     PISSN: 20294913     EISSN: 20294921     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3846/20294913.2011.649912     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Aaltonen, M.; Sanders, T. I. 2006. Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future, Foresight 8 3: 28-35. doi:10.1108/14636680610668054
2. Alexandrova, M.; Marinova, D.; Tchonkova, D.; Keenan, M.; Popper, R.; Havas, A. 2007. Research Infrastructures Foresight. A practical guide for integrating foresight in research infrastructures policy formulation.
3. Amanatidou, E. 2008. Joint foresight: towards a mechanism for joint programming in Europe?, Foresight 10 6: 103-117. doi:10.1108/14636680810918603
4. Armstrong, J.; Armstrong, S. 2006. Findings from evidence-based forecasting: methods for reducing forecast error, International Journal of Forecasting 22: 583-598. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.04.006
5. Bishop, P.; Hines, A.; Collins, T. 2007. The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques, Foresight 9 1: 5-25. doi:10.1108/14636680710727516
6. Blueprints for Foresight Actions in the Regions: Upgrade Foresight Strategy and Actions to Assist Regions of Traditional Industry Towards a More Knowledge Based Community [online], [cited 5 January 2007]. Available from Internet: .
7. Cachia, R.; Compañó, R.; Costa, O. 2007. Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74: 1179-1203. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.05.006
8. Cempel, C. 2002. Nowoczesne zagadnienia metodologii i filozofii badań. Poznań. Available from Internet: .
9. Chamon, M.; Manasse, P.; Alessandro, P. 2007. Can we predict the next capital account crisis?, IMF Staff Papers 54: 270-305. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450012
10. Chrisidu-Budnik, A.; Korczak, J.; Pakuła, A.; Supernat, J. 2005. Nauka organizacji i zarza{ogonek}dzania. Kolonia Limited, Wroclaw.
11. Coates, J.; Durance, P.; Godet, M. 2010. Strategic foresight issue: introduction, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1423-1425. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.08.001
12. Dolby, R. 1998. Niepewność wiedzy, Warszawa: Amber.
13. Gašparíková, J. 2007. Is new economic research more qualitative?. Ekonomicky Casopis, 55(3): 287-296.
14. Gass, S. I. 2005. Model World: the great debate-MAUT versus AHP, Interfaces 35 4: 308-312. doi:10.1287/inte.1050.0152
15. Grabiński, T. and Sokołowski, A. 1984. Z badań nad efektywnościa{ogonek} wybranych procedur taksonomicznych. ZN AE w Krakowie, 181/1984: 63-79.
16. Grupp, H. H.; Linstone, A. 1999. National technology foresight activities around the globe resurrection and new paradigms, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 60: 85-94. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00039-0
17. Havas, A. 2008. Devising futures for universities in a multi-level structure: a methodological experiment, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75: 558-582. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.001
18. Jakuszewicz, I.; Kononiuk, A.; Magruk, A.; Nazarko, J. 2006. Inicjatywy foresight w Polsce i na świecie, in Kiełtyka, L. Multimedia w organizacjach gospodarczych i edukacji. Wyd. Difin, Warszawa.
19. Jasiński, L. J. 2007. Myślenie perspektywiczne. Uwarunkowania badania przyszłości typu foresight. Instytut Nauk Ekonomicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Warszawa.
20. Kildienė, S.; Kaklauskas, A.; Zavadskas, E. K. 2011. COPRAS based comparative analysis of the European country management capabilities within the construction sector in the time of crisis, Journal of Business Economics and Management 12 2: 417-434. doi:10.3846/16111699.2011.575190
21. Könnölä, T.; Brummer, V.; Salo, A. 2007. Diversity in foresight: insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74: 608-626. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.003
22. Lee, H.; Lee, Ch. 2008. On the R&D priority setting in technology foresight: a DEA and ANP approach, International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management 5 2: 201-219. doi:10.1142/S0219877008001333
23. Lüdeke, M. K. B. 2007. Bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in foresight, from Oracles to Dialogue, in Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future COST A22 Conference, Athens, July 9-11, 2007.
24. Magruk, A. 2005. Foresight-Nowa metoda prognozowania heurystycznego, in Kiełtyka, L.; Nazarko, J.Technologie informatyczne i prognozowanie w zarza{ogonek}dzaniu. Wybrane zagadnienia. Wyd. Politechniki Białostockiej, Białystok.
25. Martin, B. R. 2010. The origins of the concept of 'foresight' in science and technology: an insider's perspective, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1438-1447. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.009
26. May, G. 2007. Selecting methods [online], [cited 23 June 2009]. Available from Internet: .
27. Nowak, E. 1980. Metody taksonomiczne w klasyfikacji obiektów społeczno-gospodarczych. PWE, Warszawa.
28. Nowak, S. 2006. Metodologia badań spolecznych. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
29. Okoń-Hordyńska, E. 2006. Foresight-czyli jak określać priorytety rozwoju innowacji, in Szablowski, J. Zarza{ogonek}dzanie innowacjami-teoria i praktyka. Wyd. Wyższej Szkoły Finansów i Zarza{ogonek}dzania w Białymstoku oraz Balikesir Üniversitesi. Białystok.
30. Pawłowski, K.; Pawłowski, E. 2005. Współczesne koncepcje zarza{ogonek}dzania a przedsie{ogonek}biorstwo przyszłości [BBC], in Trzcieliński, S. Nowoczesne przedsie{ogonek}biorstwo [abc]. Politechnika Poznańska, Poznań, 30-39.
31. Pociecha, J.; Podolec, B.; Sokołowski, A.; Zaja{ogonek}c, K. 1988. Metody taksonomiczne w badaniach społeczno-ekonomicznych. PWN, Warszawa.
32. Popper, R. 2008a. "Foresight Methodology". In The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice, Edited by: Georghiou, L., Harper, C. J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and Popper, R. Edward Elgar.
33. Popper, R. 2008b. How are foresight methods selected?, Foresight 10 6: 62-89. doi:10.1108/14636680810918586
34. Popper, R. 2009. Selecting Foresight Methods [online], [cited 23 June 2009]. Available from Internet: .
35. Popper, R.; Korte, W. B. 2004. Xtreme Euforia: combining foresight methods, in EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville May 13-14, 2004.
36. Popper, R.; Keenan, M.; Butter, M. 2006. 2005 Mapping Report. The European Foresight Monitoring Network.
37. Popper, R.; Keenan, M.; Butter, M.; Fuenta, G. S. 2007. Global Foresight Outlook 2007. The European Foresight Monitoring Network.
38. Reger, G. 2001. Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a Network and process perspective. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 13(4): 533-553.
39. Reid, D. M. and Zyglidopoulos, S. C. 2004. Causes and consequences of the lack of strategic foresight in the decisions of multinational enterprises to enter China. Futures, 36(2): 237-252.
40. Rohrbeck, R. 2007. Technology Scouting-a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, in ISPIMAsia Conference. India, New Delhi.
41. Rutkowski, P. 2000. Klasyfikacja rze{ogonek}du orchidales w świetle analizy fenetycznej. Zastosowanie metod statystycznych w badaniach naukowych. StatSoft Polska, Kraków.
42. Sagan, A. 2000. Przykłady zaawansowanych technik analitycznych w badaniach marketingowych. StatSoft Polska, Kraków.
43. Salo, A.; Gustafsson, T.; Ramanathan, R. 2003. Multicriteria methods for technology foresight, Journal of Forecasting 22: 235-255. doi:10.1002/for.850
44. Santos, D. M.; Fellows Filho, L. 2007. The Role of Foresight Experience in the Promotion of Brazil's National Innovation System, Technology Foresight Summit 2007. Water Productivity in Industry, Budapest.
45. Schwarz, J. O. 2007. Business wargaming: developing foresight within a strategic simulation, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 21 3: 291-305. doi:10.1080/09537320902750590
46. Shirai, Y. 2007. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute, in Inc., STPI Seminar at Taipei 24 October 2007.
47. Skawińska, E. 2007. Zarza{ogonek}dzanie przedsie{ogonek}biorstwem. Wyd. Instytut Inżynierii Zarza{ogonek}dzania Politechniki Poznańskiej, Poznań.
48. Slaughter, R. A. 1998. Futures beyond dystopia, Futures 30 10: 993-1002. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00101-3
49. Slaughter, R. A. 2004. Road testinga new model at the Australian Foresight Institute, Futures 36: 837-852. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.010
50. Słownik Je{ogonek}zyka Polskiego PWN. 2007. Available from Internet: .
51. Stout, D. 1995. Technology foresight-a view from the front, Business Strategy Review 6: 1-16.
52. Technology Foresight for Organizers. 2003. Training Course for Black Sea Economic Cooperation Countries and the Newly Independent States, United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Turkey, Ankara.
53. Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group (TFAMWG). 2004. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71: 287-303.
54. Tran, T. A. and Daim, T. 2008. A taxonomic review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 75: 1396-1405.
55. Unido Technology Foresight Manual. 2005. Organizations and Methods. Unido, Vienna.
56. Voros, J. 2006. Introducing a classification framework for prospective methods, Foresight 8 2: 43-56. doi:10.1108/14636680610656174
57. Zavadskas, E. K.; Turskis, Z. 2011. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods in economics: an overview, Technological and Economic Development of Economy 17 2: 397-427. doi:10.3846/20294913.2011.593291