메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 17, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 483-493

Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

Author keywords

Compound Poisson model; Ecozone; Large fire occurrence; Large fires; Poisson model; Threshold probability

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; ECOSYSTEMS; PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS; PROBABILITY;

EID: 84865963770     PISSN: 14202026     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-012-9307-5     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (16)

References (54)
  • 2
    • 0347269064 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling the soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska
    • doi:10.1029/2001JD001244
    • Zhuang, Q., McGuire, A. D., O'Neill, K. P., Harden, J. W., Romanovsky, V. E., & Yarie, J. (2002). Modeling the soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 8147. doi: 10. 1029/2001JD001244.
    • (2002) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.107 , pp. 8147
    • Zhuang, Q.1    McGuire, A.D.2    O'Neill, K.P.3    Harden, J.W.4    Romanovsky, V.E.5    Yarie, J.6
  • 3
    • 34548306570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis
    • doi:10.1029/2006JG000380
    • Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Zhuang, Q., Melillo, J., Kicklighter, D. W., Kasischke, E., et al. (2007). The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, G02029. doi: 10. 1029/2006JG000380.
    • (2007) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.112
    • Balshi, M.S.1    McGuire, A.D.2    Zhuang, Q.3    Melillo, J.4    Kicklighter, D.W.5    Kasischke, E.6
  • 4
    • 0035176379 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: Coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
    • Thonicke, K., Venevsky, S., Sitch, S., & Cramer, W. (2001). The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: Coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10, 661-677.
    • (2001) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.10 , pp. 661-677
    • Thonicke, K.1    Venevsky, S.2    Sitch, S.3    Cramer, W.4
  • 7
    • 10644251823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires
    • doi:10.1029/2004GL020876
    • Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., & Flannigan, M. D. (2004). Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L18211. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL020876.
    • (2004) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.31
    • Gillett, N.P.1    Weaver, A.J.2    Zwiers, F.W.3    Flannigan, M.D.4
  • 8
    • 51449118100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of simulated boreal fire dynamics to uncertainties in climate drivers
    • Rupp, T. S., Chen, X., Oleson, M., & McGuire, A. D. (2007). Sensitivity of simulated boreal fire dynamics to uncertainties in climate drivers. Earth Interactions, 11, 1-21.
    • (2007) Earth Interactions , vol.11 , pp. 1-21
    • Rupp, T.S.1    Chen, X.2    Oleson, M.3    McGuire, A.D.4
  • 9
    • 33645325634 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human role in Russian wild fires
    • Mollicone, D., Eva, H. D., & Achard, F. (2006). Human role in Russian wild fires. Nature, 440, 436-437.
    • (2006) Nature , vol.440 , pp. 436-437
    • Mollicone, D.1    Eva, H.D.2    Achard, F.3
  • 10
    • 45849142020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human influences on wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An analysis of the spatial patterns of human impacts
    • Calef, M. P., McGuire, A. D., & Chapin, F. S., III. (2008). Human influences on wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An analysis of the spatial patterns of human impacts. Earth Interactions, 12, 1-17.
    • (2008) Earth Interactions , vol.12 , pp. 1-17
    • Calef, M.P.1    McGuire, A.D.2    Chapin III, F.S.3
  • 11
    • 65549113406 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The vulnerability of carbon storage in boreal North America during the 21st century to increases in wildfire activity
    • Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Duffy, P. A., Flannigan, M., Kicklighter, D. W., & Melillo, J. M. (2009). The vulnerability of carbon storage in boreal North America during the 21st century to increases in wildfire activity. Global Change Biology, 15, 1491-1510.
    • (2009) Global Change Biology , vol.15 , pp. 1491-1510
    • Balshi, M.S.1    McGuire, A.D.2    Duffy, P.A.3    Flannigan, M.4    Kicklighter, D.W.5    Melillo, J.M.6
  • 12
    • 0036207142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada
    • Podur, J., Martell, D. L., & Knight, K. (2002). Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 32, 195-205.
    • (2002) Canadian Journal of Forest Research , vol.32 , pp. 195-205
    • Podur, J.1    Martell, D.L.2    Knight, K.3
  • 13
    • 33745685097 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region-Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska
    • doi:10.1029/2006GL025677
    • Kasischke, E. S., & Turetsky, M. R. (2006). Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region-Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L09703. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL025677.
    • (2006) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.33
    • Kasischke, E.S.1    Turetsky, M.R.2
  • 15
    • 6844260521 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests
    • Stocks, B. J., Fosberg, M. A., Lynham, T. J., Mearns, L., Wotton, B. M., Yang, Q., et al. (1998). Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change, 38, 1-13.
    • (1998) Climatic Change , vol.38 , pp. 1-13
    • Stocks, B.J.1    Fosberg, M.A.2    Lynham, T.J.3    Mearns, L.4    Wotton, B.M.5    Yang, Q.6
  • 16
    • 37649018587 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests
    • 044003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/044003
    • Xiao, J., & Zhuang, Q. (2007). Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests. Environment Research Letters, 2(044003), 6. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/2/4/044003.
    • (2007) Environment Research Letters , vol.2 , pp. 6
    • Xiao, J.1    Zhuang, Q.2
  • 17
    • 0031473213 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of forest fires with Poisson models
    • Mandallaz, D., & Ye, R. (1997). Prediction of forest fires with Poisson models. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 27, 1685-1694.
    • (1997) Canadian Journal of Forest Research , vol.27 , pp. 1685-1694
    • Mandallaz, D.1    Ye, R.2
  • 18
    • 0027786404 scopus 로고
    • Improving extended range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity
    • Elsner, J. B., & Schmertmann, C. P. (1993). Improving extended range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 345-351.
    • (1993) Weather and Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 345-351
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Schmertmann, C.P.2
  • 19
    • 0003027968 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling large forest fires as extreme events
    • Alvarado, E., Sandberg, D. V., & Pickford, S. G. (1998). Modeling large forest fires as extreme events. Northwest Science, 72(Spec. Issue), 66-75.
    • (1998) Northwest Science , vol.72 , Issue.SPEC. ISSUE , pp. 66-75
    • Alvarado, E.1    Sandberg, D.V.2    Pickford, S.G.3
  • 24
    • 20444471429 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids
    • Mitchell, T. D., & Jones, P. D. (2005). An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.
    • (2005) International Journal of Climatology , vol.25 , pp. 693-712
    • Mitchell, T.D.1    Jones, P.D.2
  • 26
    • 0034070666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representation of mean Arctic precipitation from NCEP-NCAR and ERA reanalyses
    • Serreze, M. C., & Hurst, C. M. (2000). Representation of mean Arctic precipitation from NCEP-NCAR and ERA reanalyses. Journal of Climate, 13, 182-201.
    • (2000) Journal of Climate , vol.13 , pp. 182-201
    • Serreze, M.C.1    Hurst, C.M.2
  • 27
    • 0042346378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th Century: A modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics
    • Zhuang, Q., McGuire, A. D., Melillo, J. M., Clein, J. S., Dargaville, R. J., Kicklighter, D. W., et al. (2003). Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th Century: A modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics. Tellus, 55B, 751-776.
    • (2003) Tellus , vol.55 B , pp. 751-776
    • Zhuang, Q.1    McGuire, A.D.2    Melillo, J.M.3    Clein, J.S.4    Dargaville, R.J.5    Kicklighter, D.W.6
  • 28
    • 0003755335 scopus 로고
    • Ecological Stratification Working Group, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON
    • Ecological Stratification Working Group (1995). A national ecological framework for Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON.
    • (1995) A national ecological framework for Canada
  • 29
    • 0037093163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices
    • Saltelli, A. (2002). Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices. Computer Physics Communications, 145, 280-297.
    • (2002) Computer Physics Communications , vol.145 , pp. 280-297
    • Saltelli, A.1
  • 30
    • 45449094504 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology
    • Marino, S., Hogue, I. B., Ray, C. J., & Kirschner, D. E. (2008). A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254, 178-196.
    • (2008) Journal of Theoretical Biology , vol.254 , pp. 178-196
    • Marino, S.1    Hogue, I.B.2    Ray, C.J.3    Kirschner, D.E.4
  • 31
    • 0004256568 scopus 로고
    • New York: Springer
    • Pitman, J. (1993). Probability (p. 559). New York: Springer.
    • (1993) Probability , pp. 559
    • Pitman, J.1
  • 34
    • 80052197185 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extreme value analysis of wildfires in Canadian boreal forest ecosystems
    • Jiang, Y., & Zhuang, Q. (2011). Extreme value analysis of wildfires in Canadian boreal forest ecosystems. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 41, 1836-1851.
    • (2011) Canadian Journal of Forest Research , vol.41 , pp. 1836-1851
    • Jiang, Y.1    Zhuang, Q.2
  • 35
    • 0038713582 scopus 로고
    • Lightning and forest fires in the northern Rocky Mountain Region
    • Gisborne, H. T. (1926). Lightning and forest fires in the northern Rocky Mountain Region. Monthly Weather Review, 54, 281-286.
    • (1926) Monthly Weather Review , vol.54 , pp. 281-286
    • Gisborne, H.T.1
  • 36
    • 33747626323 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires?
    • Running, S. W. (2006). Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires? Science, 313, 927-928.
    • (2006) Science , vol.313 , pp. 927-928
    • Running, S.W.1
  • 37
    • 33747586378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity
    • Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006). Warming and earlier spring increase western U. S. forest wildfire activity. Science, 313, 940-943.
    • (2006) Science , vol.313 , pp. 940-943
    • Westerling, A.L.1    Hidalgo, H.G.2    Cayan, D.R.3    Swetnam, T.W.4
  • 38
    • 0033368643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characteristics of lightning and wildland fire ignition in the Pacific Northwest
    • Rorig, M. L., & Ferguson, S. A. (1999). Characteristics of lightning and wildland fire ignition in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 38, 1565-1575.
    • (1999) Journal of Applied Meteorology , vol.38 , pp. 1565-1575
    • Rorig, M.L.1    Ferguson, S.A.2
  • 40
    • 0033994434 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Toward an integrated classification of ecosystems: Defining opportunities for managing fish and forest health
    • Rieman, B. E., Hessburg, P. F., Lee, D. C., Thurow, R. F., & Sedell, J. R. (2000). Toward an integrated classification of ecosystems: Defining opportunities for managing fish and forest health. Environmental Management, 25, 425-444.
    • (2000) Environmental Management , vol.25 , pp. 425-444
    • Rieman, B.E.1    Hessburg, P.F.2    Lee, D.C.3    Thurow, R.F.4    Sedell, J.R.5
  • 41
    • 0034479796 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range
    • Veblen, T. T., Kitzberger, T., & Donnegan, J. (2000). Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range. Ecological Applications, 10, 1178-1195.
    • (2000) Ecological Applications , vol.10 , pp. 1178-1195
    • Veblen, T.T.1    Kitzberger, T.2    Donnegan, J.3
  • 42
    • 34047231941 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Local-scale controls of a low-severity fire regime (1750-1950), southern British Columbia, Canada
    • Heyerdahl, E. K., Lertzman, K., & Karpuk, S. (2007). Local-scale controls of a low-severity fire regime (1750-1950), southern British Columbia, Canada. Ecoscience, 10, 40-47.
    • (2007) Ecoscience , vol.10 , pp. 40-47
    • Heyerdahl, E.K.1    Lertzman, K.2    Karpuk, S.3
  • 43
    • 23044448453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variability on Alaskan fire season severity
    • Duffy, P. A., Walsh, J. E., Graham, J. M., Mann, D. H., & Rupp, T. S. (2005). Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variability on Alaskan fire season severity. Ecological Applications, 15, 1317-1330.
    • (2005) Ecological Applications , vol.15 , pp. 1317-1330
    • Duffy, P.A.1    Walsh, J.E.2    Graham, J.M.3    Mann, D.H.4    Rupp, T.S.5
  • 44
    • 0034755744 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A parametric model of the fire-size distribution
    • Cumming, S. G. (2001). A parametric model of the fire-size distribution. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 31, 1297-1303.
    • (2001) Canadian Journal of Forest Research , vol.31 , pp. 1297-1303
    • Cumming, S.G.1
  • 45
    • 61449235219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disturbance history affects lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest: Observations and simulations
    • Krawchuk, M., & Cumming, S. (2009). Disturbance history affects lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest: Observations and simulations. Forest Ecology and Management, 257, 1613-1622.
    • (2009) Forest Ecology and Management , vol.257 , pp. 1613-1622
    • Krawchuk, M.1    Cumming, S.2
  • 48
    • 35948931761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fire season precipitation variability influences fire extent and severity in a large southwestern wilderness area, United States
    • doi:10.1029/2007GL030804
    • Holden, Z. A., Morgan, P., Crimmins, M. A., Steinhorst, R. K., & Smith, A. M. S. (2007). Fire season precipitation variability influences fire extent and severity in a large southwestern wilderness area, United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16708. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL030804.
    • (2007) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.34
    • Holden, Z.A.1    Morgan, P.2    Crimmins, M.A.3    Steinhorst, R.K.4    Smith, A.M.S.5
  • 49
    • 34247516790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The spatial and temporal distribution of lightning strikes and their relationship with vegetation type, elevation and fire scars
    • Kilinc, M., & Beringer, J. (2007). The spatial and temporal distribution of lightning strikes and their relationship with vegetation type, elevation and fire scars. Journal of Climate, 20, 1161-1173.
    • (2007) Journal of Climate , vol.20 , pp. 1161-1173
    • Kilinc, M.1    Beringer, J.2
  • 50
    • 0038020129 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fire and riparian ecosystems in landscapes of the western USA
    • Dwire, K. A., & Kauffman, J. B. (2003). Fire and riparian ecosystems in landscapes of the western USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 178, 61-74.
    • (2003) Forest Ecology and Management , vol.178 , pp. 61-74
    • Dwire, K.A.1    Kauffman, J.B.2
  • 52
    • 17944377102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comment-A reexamination of the effects of fire suppression in the boreal forest
    • Miyanishi, K., & Johnson, E. A. (2001). Comment-A reexamination of the effects of fire suppression in the boreal forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 31, 1462-1466.
    • (2001) Canadian Journal of Forest Research , vol.31 , pp. 1462-1466
    • Miyanishi, K.1    Johnson, E.A.2
  • 53
    • 77956415058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects
    • Bentz, B. J., Regniere, J., Fettig, C. J., Hansen, E. M., Hayes, J. L., Hicke, J. A., et al. (2010). Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects. Bioscience, 60, 602-613.
    • (2010) Bioscience , vol.60 , pp. 602-613
    • Bentz, B.J.1    Regniere, J.2    Fettig, C.J.3    Hansen, E.M.4    Hayes, J.L.5    Hicke, J.A.6


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.