Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages

Global Change Biology

Volumn 18, Issue 10, 2012, Pages 2995-3003

  Albouy, Camille ^a   Guilhaumon, François ^b   Araújo, Miguel B ^b,c,d   Mouillot, David ^a,e   Leprieur, Fabien ^a  

^a UNIVERSITÉ MONTPELLIER 2   (France)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

^c MUSEO NACIONAL DE CIENCIAS NATURALES   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^e JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Beta diversity; Bioclimatic Envelop Model; Mediterranean coastal fish; Mediterranean Sea; Nestedness; Species Temporal Turnover; Turnover

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE EFFECT; COMMUNITY COMPOSITION; FAUNA; FISH; GLOBAL WARMING; NESTEDNESS; SPECIES RICHNESS;

MEDITERRANEAN SEA;

EID: 84865861757     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02772.x     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon RJ (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of applied ecology, 43, 1223-1232.
2. Anderson MJ, Crist TO, Chase JM et al. (2011) Navigating the multiple meanings of beta diversity: a roadmap for the practicing ecologist. Ecology Letters, 14, 19-28.
3. Araújo MB, New MJ (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology& Evolution, 22, 42-47.
4. Araújo MB, Peterson AT (2012) Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modelling. Ecology, In press, doi: 10.1890/11-1930.1.
5. Araújo MB, Thuiller W, Pearson RG (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1712-1728.
6. Azzurro E, Moschella P, Maynou F (2011) Tracking Signals of Change in Mediterranean Fish Diversity Based on Local Ecological Knowledge. PLoS ONE, 6, e24885, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024885.
7. Baselga A (2010) Partitioning the turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 134-143.
8. Baselga A (2012) The relationship between species replacement, dissimilarity derived from nestedness and nestedness. Global Ecology and Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00756.x.
9. Ben Rais Lasram F, Tomasin JA, Guilhaumon F, Romdhane MS, Do Chi T, Mouillot D (2008) Ecological correlates of dispersal success of Lessepsian fishes. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 363, 273-286.
10. Ben Rais Lasram F, Guilhaumon F, Mouillot D (2009) Fish diversity patterns in the Mediterranean Sea: deviations from a mid-domain model. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 376, 253-267.
11. Ben Rais Lasram F, Guilhaumon F, Albouy C, Somot S, Thuiller W, Mouillot D (2010) The Mediterranean Sea as a 'cul-de-sac' for endemic fishes facing climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, 3233-3245.
12. Beuvier J, Sevault F, Herrmann M et al. (2010) Modeling the Mediterranean Sea interannual variability during 1961-2000: focus on the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 115, C08017, 27.
13. Buisson L, Grenouillet G (2009) Contrasted impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages along an environmental gradient. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 613-626.
14. Buisson L, Thuiller W, Lek S, Lim P, Grenouillet G (2008) Climate change hastens the turnover of stream fish assemblages. Global Change Biology, 14, 2232-2248.
15. Burreson EM, Sypek JP (1981) Cryptobia sp (Mastigophora, Kinetoplastida) from the gills of marine fishes in the Chesapeake Bay. Journal of fish diseases, 4, 519-522.
16. Coll M, Piroddi C, Steenbeek J et al. (2010) The Biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea: estimates, Patterns, and Threats. PLoS ONE, 5, e11842. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0011842.
17. Crain C, Halpern B, Beck MW, Kappel C (2009) Understanding and managing human threats to the coastal marine environment. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1162, 39-62.
18. Dobrovolski R, Melo AS, Cassemiro FAS, Diniz-Filho JAF (2011) Climatic history and dispersal ability explain the relative importance of turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity. Globlal Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 191-197.
19. Dolnicar S, Grabler K, Mazanec JA (1999) Analyzing Destination Images: a Perceptual Charting Approach. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 8, 43-57.
20. Dulvy NK, Rogers SI, Jennings S, Stelzenmuller V, Dye SR, Skjoldal HRJ (2008) Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. Journal of Apllied Ecology, 45, 1029-1039.
21. ETOPO2v2 (2010) Global Gridded 2-minute Database, National Geophysical Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/etopo2.html.
22. Ferrier S, Guisan A (2006) Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level. Journal of applied ecology, 43, 393-404.
23. Froese R, Pauly D (2010) FishBase. World Wide Web electronic publication. www.fishbase.org, version (01/2011).
24. Garcia R, Burgess N, Cabeza M, Rahbek C, Araújo M (2011) Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02605.x.
25. Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, 4.
26. Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.
27. Hillebrand H, Soininen J, Snoeijs P (2010) Warming leads to higher species turnover in a coastal ecosystem. Global Change Biology, 16, 1181-1193.
28. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bruno JF (2010) The Impact of Climate Change on the World's Marine Ecosystems. Science, 328, 1523-1528.
29. ter Hofstede R, Rijnsdorp AD (2011) Comparing demersal fish assemblages between periods of contrasting climate and fishing pressure. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68, 1189-1198.
30. IPCC (2007) The physical science basis summary for policymakers. In: Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth Assessment report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL) 18 pp. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
31. Jackson ST, Sax DF (2010) Balancing biodiversity in a changing environment: extinction debt, immigration credit and species turnover. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 25, 153-160.
32. Koleff P, Gaston KJ, Lennon JJJ (2003) Measuring beta diversity for presence-absence data. Journal of Animal Ecology, 72, 367-382.
33. Legendre P, Legendre L (1998) Numerical Ecology. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
34. Leprieur F, Tedesco PA, Hugueny B, Beauchard O, Durr HH, Brosse S, Oberdorff T (2011) Partitioning global patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity reveals contrasting signatures of past climate changes. Ecology letters, 14, 325-334.
35. Louisy P (2005) Guide d'identification des poissons marins: Europe de l'ouest et Méditerranée. Ulmer, Paris.
36. Mann RHK, Blackburn JH (1991) The biology of the eel Anguilla-anguilla (L) in an english chalk stream and interactions with Juvenile trout Salmo-trutta (L) and salmon Salmo-Salar (L). Hydorobiologia, 218, 65-76.
37. Mouillot D, Albouy C, Guilhaumon F et al. (2011) Protected and Threatened Components of Fish Biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea. Current Biology, 21, 1044-1050.
38. Neuheimer A, Thresher R, Lyle J, Semmens J (2011) Tolerance limit for fish growth exceeded by warming waters. Nature Climate Change, 1, 110-113.
39. Novak M, Moore JW, Leidy RA (2011) Nestedness patterns and the dual nature of community reassembly in California streams: a multivariate permutation-based approach. Global change biology, 17, 3714-3723.
40. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
41. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, Buddemeier RH, Stockwell DRB (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature, 416, 626-629.
42. R Development Core Team (2011) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. Available at www.R-project. Org.
43. Raitsos DE, Beaugrand G, Georgopoulos D, Zenetos A, Pancucci-Papadopoulou AM, Theocharis A, Papathanassiou EJ (2010) Global climate change amplifies the entry of tropical species into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Limnology and Oceanography, 55, 1478-1484.
44. Rosenfeld JS (2002) Functional redundancy in ecology and conservation. Oikos, 98, 156-162.
45. Somero GN (2012) The Physiology of Global Change: Linking Patterns to Mechanisms. In Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol 4 (eds. Carlson CA, Giovannoni SJ), pp. 39-61. Palo Alto, Annual Reviews.
46. Spalding MD, Fox HE, Halpern BS et al. (2007) Marine ecoregions of the world: a bioregionalization of coastal and shelf areas. BioScience, 57, 573-583.
47. Suding KN, Lavorel S, Chapin FS et al. (2008) Scaling environmental change through the community-level: a trait-based response-and-effect framework for plants. Global Change Biology, 14, 1125-1140.
48. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 8245-8250.
49. Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araújo MB (2009) BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography, 32, 369-373.
50. Thuiller W, Lavergne S, Roquet C, Boulangeat I, Lafourcade B, Araújo MB (2011) Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe. Nature, 470, 531-534.
51. Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 19637-19643.
52. Vaughn CC (2010) Biodiversity Losses and Ecosystem Function in Freshwaters: emerging Conclusions and Research Directions. BioScience, 60, 25-35.
53. Wardle DA, Bardgett RD, Callaway RM, Van der Putten WH (2011) Terrestrial ecosystem responses to species gains and losses. Science, 332, 1273-1277.
54. Whitehead PJP, Bauchot L, Hureau JC, Nielsen J, Tortonese E (1986) Fishes of the North-Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean, UNESCO, Paris.
55. Williams PH, de Klerk HM, Crowe TM (1999) Interpreting biogeographical boundaries among Afrotropical birds: spatial patterns in richness gradients and species replacement. Journal of Biogeography, 26, 459-474.