Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy

Applied Geochemistry

Volumn 27, Issue 10, 2012, Pages 1899-1919

  Kirk Nordstrom, D ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AQUEOUS GEOCHEMISTRY; COMPUTER CODES; ENGINEERING PRACTICES; ENVIRONMENTAL INVESTIGATION; HAZARDOUS WASTES; HIGH LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES; MODEL CALCULATIONS; MODEL RELIABILITY; MODEL VALIDATION; OPEN PIT MINES; SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS; TEMPORAL PREDICTION;

RADIOACTIVE WASTES; WASTE MANAGEMENT;

GEOCHEMISTRY;

COMMUNICATION; COMPUTER; GEOCHEMISTRY; GUIDELINE; HAZARDOUS WASTE; MODEL VALIDATION; OPEN PIT MINE; PHILOSOPHY; RADIOACTIVE WASTE; SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY;

EID: 84865537247     PISSN: 08832927     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2012.07.007     Document Type: Review

References (149)

1. AAAS, 1990. Science for All Americans. Am. Assoc. Adv. Sci., Project 2061. Oxford University Press, New York.
2. Alpers, C.N., Nordstrom, D.K., Spitzley, J., 2003. Extreme acid drainage from a pyritic massive sulfide deposit: the Iron Mountain end-member. In: Jambor, J.L., Blowes, D.W., Ritchie, A.I.M. (Eds.), Environmental Aspects of Mine Wastes, Mineral. Assoc. Canada, vol. 31, pp. 407-430.
3. Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science 2001, John Wiley & Sons, New York. M.G. Anderson, P.D. Bates (Eds.).
4. Anderson M.G., Burt T.P. Modelling strategies. Hydrological Forecasting 1985, 1-13. Wiley & Sons, New York. M.G. Anderson, T.P. Burt (Eds.).
5. Anderson G.M., Crerar D.A. Thermodynamics and Geochemistry 1993, Oxford University Press, New York.
6. Asimov I. The Relativity of Wrong 1988, Kensington Books, New York.
7. ASTM, 1984. Standard Practice for Evaluating Environmental Fate Models of Chemicals. Am. Soc. Test. Mater. Doc. E978-84.
8. ASTM, 1992. Standard Practice for Evaluating Mathematical Models for the Environmental Fate of Chemicals. Amer. Soc. Test. Mat. Doc. E978-92.
9. Bair E.S. Model (in)validation - a view from the courtroom. Ground Water 1994, 32:530-531.
10. Bair E.S. Models in the courtroom. Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science 2001, 58-76. John Wiley & Sons, New York. M.G. Anderson, P.D. Bates (Eds.).
11. Baker V.R. Geomorphological understanding of floods. Geomorphology 1994, 10:139-156.
12. Balci, O., 1997. Verification, validation and accreditation of simulation models. In: Proc. 29th Conf. Winter, Simulation, pp. 47-52.
13. Bateson G. Steps to an Ecology of Mind 1972, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
14. Bear J., Cheng D.-D. Modeling Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport 2010, Springer, New York.
15. Beck M.B. Model evaluation and performance. Encyclopedia of Environmentrics 2002, Wiley, Chichester, UK. A.H. Al-Shaarawi, W.W. Piegorsch (Eds.).
16. Benfey O.T. August Kekulé and the birth of the structural theory of organic chemistry in 1858. J. Chem. Ed. 1958, 35:21-23.
17. Bethke C.M. The question of uniqueness in geochemical modeling. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1992, 56:4315-4320.
18. Box G.E.P., Draper N.R. Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces 1987, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
19. Boyd R. Confirmation, semantics, and the interpretation of scientific theories. The Philosophy of Science 1991, 3-36. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. R. Boyd, P. Gasper, J.D. Trout (Eds.).
20. Bredehoeft J. From models to performance assessment - the conceptualization problem. Ground Water 2003, 41:571-577.
21. Bredehoeft J. The conceptualization model problem - surprise. Hydrogeol. J. 2005, 13:37-46.
22. Bronowski J. The Common Sense of Science 1951, Heinemann, New York.
23. Bronowski, J., 1956. Science and Human Values. Revised and republished in 1975 by Harper and Row, New York.
24. Bronowski J. The Origins of Knowledge and Imagination 1978, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticutt.
25. Burns D.A., Plummer L.N., McDonnell J.J., Busenberg E., Casile G., Kendall C., Hooper R.P., Freer J.E., Peters N.E., Beven K., Schlosser P. Geochemical evolution of riparian ground water in a forested Piedmont catchment. Ground Water 2003, 41:913-925.
26. Cartwright N. How the Laws of Physics Lie. Clarendon Paperbacks 1983, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
27. Castendyk, D.N., 2009. Conceptual models of pit lakes. In: Castendyk, D.N., Eary, L.E. (Eds.), Mine Pit Lakes: Characteristics, Predictive Modeling, and Sustainability. Soc. Min. Metall. Explor., Littleton, Colorado, pp. 61-76.
28. Castendyk, D.N., Eary, L.E. (Eds.), 2009. Mine Pit Lakes: Characteristics, Predictive Modeling, and Sustainability. Soc. Min. Metall. Explor., Littleton, Colorado.
29. Validation of Geo-hydrological models. Adv. Water Resour. 1992, 15:1-214.
30. Chamberlin T.C. The method of multiple working hypotheses. J. Geol. 1897, 5:837-848.
31. Dalrymple G.B. The Age of the Earth 1991, Stanford University Press, Stanford, California.
32. Derry G.N. What Science Is and How It Works 1999, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
33. DeWitt R. Philosophy of science. Philosophies of the Sciences 2010, 9-37. Wiley-Blackwell, West Sussex, UK. A. Fritz (Ed.).
34. Drever J.I. "Prediction is hard - particularly about the future" (editorial). Elements 2011, 7:363.
35. Duhem, P., 1954. The Aim and Structure of Physical Science. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, (translated from La Théorie Physique: Son Objet, Sa Structure, 2nd ed., 1914, by P.P. Wiener).
36. Dumas L.J. Lethal Arrogance: Human Fallibility and Dangerous Technologies 1999, St. Martin's Press, New York.
37. Einstein, A., 1921. Geometry and experience. Lecture before the Prussian Academy of Sciences, January 27, 1921. In: Seelig, C. (Ed.), 1954, Ideas and Opinions by Albert Einstein. Wings Books, New York.
38. Einstein A. Physics and reality. J. Franklin Inst. 1936, 221:349-382.
39. Einstein A. Considerations concerning the fundaments of theoretical physics. Science 1940, 24:487-492.
40. Einstein A., Infeld L. The Evolution of Physics 1938, Simon and Schuster, New York.
41. Eisenberg D. The discovery of the α-helix and the β-sheet, the principle structural features of proteins. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2003, 100:11207-11210.
42. Fajgelj, A., 2007. Assuring Quality of Analytical Measurement Results: The IUPAC role. Chem. Inter. 29, May-June.
43. Feynman R.P. What Do You Care What Other People Think? 1988, W.W. Norton, New York.
44. Feynman R.P. The Pleasure of Finding Things Out 1999, Perseus Publishing, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
45. Ford A. Modeling the Environment 1999, Island Press, Washington, DC.
46. Frigg, R., Hartmann, S., 2009. Models in Science. In: Zalta, E.N. (Ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2009 ed.). Metaphysics Research Lab, Center for the Study of Language and Information, Stanford University, Stanford, California. (accessed 13.11.11). http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2009/entries/models-science/.
47. Gentil S., Blake G. Validation of complex ecosystems models. Ecol. Model. 1981, 14:21-38.
48. Giere R. Explaining Science: A Cognitive Approach 1988, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
49. Glynn P.D., Plummer L.N. Geochemistry and the understanding of ground-water systems. Hydrogeol. J. 2005, 13:263-287.
50. Gödel K. über formal unentscheidbare Sätze oder Principia Mathematica und verwandter Systeme. Teil I. Monat. Math. Physik 1931, 38:173-189.
51. Gorham G. Philosophy of Science: A Beginner's Guide 2009, Oneworld, Oxford.
52. Greenberger M., Crenson M., Crissey B. Models in the Policy Process 1976, Russell Sage Foundation, New York.
53. Greenwood H. On models and modeling. Can. Mineral. 1989, 27:1-14.
54. Gregory B. Inventing Reality, Physics as Language 1990, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
55. Hall C.W. Laws and Models: Science, Engineering, and Technology 2000, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida.
56. Hassan, A., 2003. A Validation Process for the Groundwater Flow and Transport Model of the Faultless Nuclear Test at Central Nevada Test Area, Publication No. 45197, DOE/NV/136009-27.
57. Helgeson H.C., Garrels R.M., Mackenzie F.T. Evaluation of irreversible reactions in geochemical processes involving aqueous solutions. II. Applications. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1969, 33:455-481.
58. Helgeson H.C., Brown T.H., Nigrini A., Jones T.A. Calculation of mass transfer in geochemical processes involving aqueous solutions. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1970, 34:569-592.
59. Holling C.S. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management 1978, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
60. HSK, 1993. Protection Objectives for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste. HSK-R-21/e, Villigen-HSK, Switzerland.
61. Hughes R.I.G. Models and representation. Philos. Sci. 1997, 64:S325-S336.
62. Hume, D., 1739. A Treatise of Human Nature. John Noon, London.
63. Hutten E.H. The Ideas of Physics 1967, Oliver and Boyd, London.
64. IAEA, 1982. Radioactive Waste Management Glossary. Report IAEA-TECDOC-264.
65. IAEA, 2007. IAEA Safety Glossary 2007 Edition.
66. Iverson, R.M., 2003. How should mathematical models of geomorphic processes be judged? In: Wilcock, P.R., Iverson, R.M. (Eds.), Prediction in Geomorphology, Amer. Geophys. Union Monogr. 135, Washington, DC, pp. 83-94.
67. Judson, H.F., 1980. The Search for Solutions. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, New York.
68. Kierkegaard S. Concluding Unscientific Postscript to the "Philosophical Fragments", (originally published in Danish, 1846) transl. D.F. Swenson 1941, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
69. Kirchner J.W., Hooper R.P., Kendall C., Neal C., Leavesley G. Testing and validating environmental models. Sci. Total Environ. 1996, 183:31-47.
70. Konikow L.F., Bredehoeft J.D. Ground-water models cannot be validated. Adv. Water Resour. 1992, 15:75-84.
71. Konikow, L.F., Glynn, P.D., 2005. Modeling groundwater flow and quality. In: Selinus, O. (Ed.-in-Chief), Essentials of Medical Geology: Impacts of the Natural Environment on Public Health. Elsevier Academic Press, Amsterdam, pp. 737-765.
72. Kuipers, J.R., Maest, A.S., MacHardy, K.A., Lawson, G., 2006. Comparison of Predicted and Actual Water Quality at Hardrock Mines: The Reliability of Predictions in Environmental Impact Statements. Earthworks, Washington, DC.
73. Langmuir D. The geochemistry of some carbonate ground waters in central Pennsylvania. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1971, 35:1023-1045.
74. Larsson A. The international projects INTRACOIN, HYDROCOIN, and INTRAVAL. Adv. Water Resour. 1992, 15:85-87.
75. Lastrucci C.L. The Scientific Approach: Basic Principles of the Scientific Method 1963, Schenkman Publishing Company, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
76. Law A.M., Kelton W.D. Simulation Modeling and Analysis 1991, McGraw-Hill, New York.
77. Lehr J. The scientific process, Part II: Can we learn it? Editorial. Ground Water 1990, 28:850-855.
78. Leiss, W., Chociolko, C., 1994 Risk and Responsibility. McGill-Queen's University Press, Montreal & Kingston, Canada.
79. Levins R. The strategy of modeling building in population biology. Am. Sci. 1966, 54:421-431.
80. Long, J.C.S., 1994. Validation of fracture-flow studies in the Stripa granite. In: In Situ Experiments in Granite, Proc. Inter. Stripa Project, Phase III, OECD/NEA.
81. Lorenz E.N. The Essence of Chaos 1993, University of Washington Press, Seattle.
82. Marini L., Accornero M. Prediction of the thermodynamic properties of metal-arsenate and metal-arsenite aqueous complexes to high temperatures and pressures and some geological consequences. Environ. Geol. 2006, 52:1343-1363.
83. Mayr E. The Growth of Biological Thought 1982, Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
84. McCarl B.A. Model validation: an overnew with some emphasis on risk models. Rev. Market. Agric. Econ. 1984, 52:152-173.
85. Middleton W.E.K. A History of the Thermometer and Its Uses in Meterology 1966, The Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Maryland.
86. Miller W., Alexander R., Chapman N., McKinley I., Smellie J. Natural Analog Studies in the Geological Disposal of Radioactive Wastes 1994, Elsevier, Amsterdam.
87. Moran R.E. Is this number to your liking? Water quality predictions in mining impact studies. Prediction, Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature 2000, 185-198. Island Press, Washington, DC. D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielke, R. Byerly (Eds.).
88. Morgan M.G., Henrion M. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis 1990, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
89. Muir, J., 1909. Three Days with John Muir. The World's Work, vol. 17, Doubleday, pp. 11355-11356.
90. Muir J. My First Summer in the Sierra 1911, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, Massachusetts.
91. Nalimov V.V. Faces of Science 1981, ISI Press, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
92. National Research Council, 2007. Models in Environmental Regulation Decision Making. The National Academies Press, Washington DC.
93. Newton R.G. The Truth of Science: Physical Theories and Reality 1997, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
94. Nordstrom, D.K., 1994. On the evaluation and application of geochemical models. Appendix 2. In: Proc. 5th CEC Natural Analogue Working Group and Alligator Rivers Analogue Project, EUR 15176 EN, pp. 375-385.
95. Nordstrom, D.K., 2003. Modeling low-temperature geochemical processes. In: Drever, J.I. (Ed.), Weathering, Soils, Surface Waters and Groundwaters. In: Holland, H.D., Turekian, K.K. (Ex. Eds.), vol. 5, Treatise on Geochemistry. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 37-72.
96. Nordstrom, D.K., 2008, Questa Baseline and Pre-Mining Ground-Water Quality Investigation. 25. Summary of Results and Baseline and Pre-mining Ground-water Geochemistry, Red River Valley, Taos County, New Mexico, 2001-2005. U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Paper 1728.
97. Nordstrom D.K., Lindblom S., Donahoe R.J., Barton C.C. Fluid inclusions in the Stripa Granite and their possible influence on the groundwater chemistry. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1989, 53:1741-1756.
98. Nordstrom D.K., Olsson T., Carlsson L., Fritz P. Introduction to the hydrogeochemical investigations within the International Stripa Project. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1989, 53:1717-1726.
99. Nye M.J. From Chemical Philosophy to Theoretical Chemistry 1994, University of California Press, Berkeley, California.
100. Odum E.P. Fundamentals of Ecology 1971, W.B. Saunders, Philadelphia. third ed.
101. Oreskes, N., 1997. Testing models of natural systems: Can it be done? In: Dalla Chiara, M.L., Doets, K., Mundici, D. (Eds.), Structures and Norms in Science, pp. 207-217.
102. Oreskes N. Why believe a computer? Models, measures, and meaning in the natural world. The Earth around Us: Maintaining a Livable Planet 2000, 70-82. W.H. Freeman and Company, New York. J.S. Schneiderman (Ed.).
103. Oreskes N. Why predict? Historical perspectives on prediction in earth science. Prediction, Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature 2000, 185-198. Island Press, Washington, DC. D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielke, R. Byerly (Eds.).
104. Oreskes N. Science and public policy: what's proof got to do with it?. Environ. Sci. Policy 2004, 7:369-383.
105. Oreskes N., Belitz K. Philosophical issues in model assessment. Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science 2001, 23-41. John Wiley & Sons, New York. M.G. Anderson, P.D. Bates (Eds.).
106. Oreskes N., Shrader-Frechette K., Belitz K. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in earth sciences. Science 1994, 263:641-646.
107. Pappas T. The Music of Reason 1995, World Wide Publishing/Tetra.
108. Patterson C.C. Age of meteorites and the earth. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 1956, 10:230-237.
109. Pescatore C. Validation: the eluding definition. Radio. Waste Manag. Environ. Restor. 1995, 20:13-22.
110. Petroski H. Failed promises. Am. Sci. 1994, 82:6-9.
111. Pilkey O.H., Pilkey-Jarvis L. Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future 2007, Columbia University Press, New York.
112. Plummer L.N. Geochemical modeling: a comparison of forward and inverse methods. First Canadian/American Conference on Hydrogeology 1984, 149-177. National Well Water Association, Worthington, Ohio. B. Hitchon, E.I. Wallick (Eds.).
113. Popper, K.R., 1959. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Harper & Row, New York (originally published 1934 as Logik der Forschung).
114. Popper K.R. Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach 1972, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
115. Power M. The predictive validation of ecological and environmental models. Ecol. Model. 1993, 68:33-50.
116. Ramspott, L.D., 1993. The Lack of Technical Basis for Requiring a Ten Thousand Year Prediction for Nuclear Waste Management, UCRL-JC-115488 Preprint, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
117. Read, D., Broyd, T.W., 1992. The international CHEMVAL Project: Verification and validation of geochemical model. In: Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. Las Vegas, Nevada, April 12-16, 1992, pp. 1421-1428.
118. Reed, M., Palandri, J., 2010. Ascent and cooling of magmatic fluids: Precipitation of vein and alteration minerals. In: Birkle, P., Torres-Alvarado, I.S. (Eds.), Water-Rock Interaction. Proc. 13th Int. Conf. Water-Rock Interaction, Guanajuato, Mexico, 16-20 August, pp. 37-40.
119. Rothman M.A. The Science Gap: Dispelling the Myths and Understanding the Reality of Science 1992, Prometheus Books, Buffalo, NY.
120. Russell B. The Problems of Philosophy. Home University Library and (1959) 1959, Oxford University Press, UK, Oxford.
121. Russell B. A History of Western Philosophy 1945, Simon and Schuster, New York.
122. Russell B. Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits 1948, Routledge, London.
123. Rykiel E.J. The meaning of models. Letter to the editor. Science 1994, 264:330-331.
124. Rykiel E.J. Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation. Ecol. Model. 1996, 90:229-244.
125. Sanitt N. Science as a Questioning Process 1996, Institute of Physics Publishing, Bristol, UK.
126. Shafer, W.M., Eary, L.E., 2009. Approaches for developing predictive models of pit lake geochemistry and water quality. In: Castendyk, D.N., Eary, L.E. (Eds.), Mine Pit Lakes: Characteristics, Predictive Modeling, and Sustainability. Soc. Min. Metall. Expl., Littleton, Colorado, pp. 115-126.
127. Shrader-Frechette K.S. Burying Uncertainty: Risk and the Case against Geological Disposal of Nuclear Waste 1993, University of California Press, Berkeley, California.
128. Shrader-Frechette K.S. Methodological rules for four classes of scientific uncertainty. Scientific Uncertainty and Environmental Problem Solving 1996, 12-39. Blackwell Science, Cambridge, Massachusetts. J. Lemons (Ed.).
129. Silberstein R.P. Hydrological models are so good, do we still need data?. Environ. Model. Softw. 2006, 21:1340-1352.
130. Spong J.S. Rescuing the Bible from Fundamentalism 1991, Harper, San Francisco.
131. Starfield A.M., Bleloch A.L. Building Models for Conservation and Wildlife Management 1986, Macmillan, New York.
132. Strahler A.N. Understanding Science: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues 1992, Prometheus Books, Buffalo, New York.
133. Tarski, A., 1983. Logic, Semantics, Meta-Mathematics, second ed. Hackett Publishing Company, Indianapolis, Indiana (first published in 1936 as Der Wahrheitsbegriff in den formalisierten Sprachen. Studia, Philosophica, vol. 1, pp. 261-405).
134. Taylor J.K. Validation of analytical methods. Anal. Chem. 1983, 55:600A.
135. Taylor J.K. On validation of analytical data. Mar. Chem. 1986, 18:115-119.
136. Teilhard de Chardin P. The Phenomenon of Man 1959, Harper and Brothers, New York.
137. Thompson M., Ellison S.R.L., Wood R. Harmonized guidelines for single-laboratory validation of methods of analysis. Pure Appl. Chem. 2002, 74:835-855.
138. Tsang C.-F. The modeling process and model validation. Ground Water 1991, 29:825-831.
139. USDOE, 1986. Environmental Assessment: Yucca Mountain Site, Nevada Research and Development Area, Nevada, vol. 2 of DOE/RW-0073.
140. USEPA, 2009. Guidance on the Development, Evaluation, and Application of Environmental Models, EPA/100/K-09/003.
141. USNRC, 1990. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Radioactive Waste Management Program Guidelines. NUREG-0865, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC.
142. Watts A. The Wisdom of Insecurity 1951, Pantheon Books.
143. Watts, A., 1960. Beat Zen, Square Zen, and Zen. In: This is It and Other Essays on Zen and Spiritual Experience, and introductory essay in the 3-in-1 1994 volume: The Wisdom of Insecurity, The Way of Zen, and Tao: The Watercourse Way. Quality Paperback Book Club, New York.
144. White I.D., Mottershead D.N., Harrison S.J. Environmental Systems: An Introductory Text 1992, Chapman & Hall, London.
145. Wilcock, P.R., Iverson, R.M., 2003. Prediction in Geomorphology. Geophysical Monograph 135, Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, DC.
146. Wilson E.O. Consilience 1998, The Unity of Knowledge, Knopf, New York.
147. Wöhler F. über künstliche Bildung des Harnstoffs (On the artificial synthesis of urea). Ann. Phys. Chem. 1828, 88:253-256.
148. Younker J.L., Boak J.M. Geological models. Letter to the editor. Science 1994, 264:1065.
149. Ziman J. Real Science: What it is and What it Means 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.