Retraction notice to "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan" [Econ. Model. 29 (2012) 2125-2143];Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan

Economic Modelling

Volumn 29, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 2125-2143

  Hassan, Syeda Anam ^a   Zaman, Khalid ^a  

^a COMSATS Institute of Information Technology ^*  (Pakistan)

Author keywords

Bounds testing approach; Exchange rate; Oil prices; Output gap; Pakistan; Trade balance

Indexed keywords

EID: 84865340740     PISSN: 02649993     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.12.010     Document Type: Erratum

References (100)

1. ADB The Challenge of High Oil Prices. Asian Development Outlook Update 2005, Asian Development Bank.
2. ADO (2010). Asian Development Outlook 2010. pp. 1-258. ISSN 0117-0481. Online available at: (accessed on 17 February, 2012). http://www.iberglobal.com/Archivos/ado2010.pdf.
3. AFDB Impact of High Oil Prices on African Economies. Economic Research Working Paper No 93 (December 2007) 2009, Online available at: http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/27968413-EN-ERWP-93.PDF (accessed on 21st March, 2012).
4. Ahmed, I. (2011). "Four alternative energy projects to secure financing in 2007" Finance and Markets- Business Magazine. Online available at: (accessed on 11May, 2012). http://tribune.com.pk/story/163475/four-alternative-energy-projects-to-secure-financing-this-year/.
5. Ahmed V., Donoghue C. External shocks in a small open economy: a CGE-micro simulation analysis. The Lahore Journal of Economics 2010, 15(1):45-90.
6. Akpan E. Oil prices shocks and Nigeria's Macro Economy Online available at:, (accessed on 19June, 2012). http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences/2009-EDiA/papers/252-Akpan.pdf.
7. Akpan E.O. Oil resource management and food insecurity in Nigeria. Paper Presentation at the European Report on Development (ERD) Conference in Accra, Ghana, 21st-23rd May 2009 2009.
8. Appleyard D.R., Field A.J. International Economics 2001, Irwin McGraw-Hill, New York.
9. Aurangzeb Factors affecting the trade balance in Pakistan. Economics and Finance Review 2012, 1(11):25-30.
10. Ayyoub M., Chaudhry I. Does inflation affect economic growth? The case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS) 2011, 31(1):51-64.
11. Backus D., Crucini M. Oil prices and the terms of trade. Journal of International Economics 1998, 50(1):185-213.
12. Bacon R., Kojima M. Coping with High Oil Prices 2006, ESMAP Report 323/06, The World Bank.
13. Bacon R., Kojima M. Phasing out subsidies: Recent experiences with fuel in developing countries. Public Policy for the Private Sector 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
14. Baffes J. Oil spills on other commodities. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4333 2007.
15. Baloch Q.B. Pakistan's Trade Imbalance & Melting down of Economy. Dialogue 2009, 3(2):148-167.
16. Barrell R., Pomerantz O. Oil prices and world economy 2004, Austrian Central Bank Seminar, Online available at: www.cigionline.org/world_economy (accessed on 5th June, 2012).
17. Belkar R., Cockerell L., Kent C. Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate Online available at:, (accessed on 16 December, 2011). http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2007/pdf/rdp2007-02.pdf.
18. Bernanke B.S., Getler M., Watson M. Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1997, 1(1):91-142.
19. Blanchard O., Gali J. The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?. NBER Working Paper No. 13368 2007.
20. Bodenstein M., Erceg C.J., Guerrieri L. Oil shocks and external adjustment. International Finance Discussion Paper No. 897 2007, Online available at: www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/ (accessed on 1st November, 2011).
21. Central Bank of Egypt Main monetary and financial indicators. Economic Review 2011, 51(1):1-181.
22. Chishti A., Zulfiqar M., Naqvi Z. The impact of trade policies on Pakistan's preferential access to the European Union 2008, Centre for the Analysis of Regional Integration at Sussex (CERIS), Reference no: TRADE08/C3/C18.
23. Dash A.K. Bilateral J-Curve between India and Her Trading Partners: A Quantitative Perspective Online available at:, (accessed on 21st March, 2012). http://www.eap-journal.com/archive/forthcoming/forthcoming_Aruna_Kumar_Dash.pdf.
24. Dawson J. The effect of oil prices on exchange rates: a case study of the Dominican Republic. The Park Place Economist 2004, 14(1):23-30.
25. Deserres A., Guay A., St-Amant P. Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Gap Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy. Working Paper: 2 1995, Bank of Canada.
26. Deutch J. Oil and Gas Energy Security Issues Online available at:, (accessed on 9June, 2012). http://nepinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/RFF-NEPI-Deutch-OilGas.pdf.
27. Economic Bulletin National Bank of Pakistan Online available at:, (accessed on March, 2012). http://www.scribd.com/doc/94660755/Economic-Bulletin-January-February-2012-2.
28. Effiong E., Chuku C.A., Sam N. Oil price distortions and their long- and short-run impacts on the Nigerian economy. Paper presented at the 51st Annual Conference of the Nigerian Economic Society, 25-27 October, Nicon Luxury Hotels, Abuja 2010.
29. EIA International Energy outlook, Pakistan Energy Profile retrieved on 22 March, 2012 from:. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=PKS.
30. Elmi Z., Jahadi M. Oil price shocks and economic growth: evidence from OPEC and OECD. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences 2011, 5(6):627-635.
31. Enders W. Applied Econometric Time Series 2004, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY. 2nd ed.
32. Energy Revolution Report A blueprint for revolutionizing a broken energy economy online available at:, (accessed on 14 May, 2012). http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/news-and-blogs/news/energy-revolution-2010/.
33. EViews 5 Econometric Views, User's guide Available online at:. http://openlibrary.org/b/OL16222604M/EViews_5_user's_guide.
34. Gallo A., Mason P., Shapiro Steve, Fabritius M. What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price. Energy 2010, 30(10):4126-4141.
35. Geweke J. Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1982, 77(378):304-313.
36. Gisser M., Goodwin T. Crude oil and the macro economy: tests of some popular notions. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 1986, 18(1):95-103.
37. Government of Pakistan Economic Survey 2005-06 2006, Finance Division, Economic Advisor's Wing, Islamabad.
38. Government of Pakistan Economic Survey 2010-2011 2011, Finance Division, Economic Advisor's Wing, Islamabad.
39. Grabowski R. Import substitution, export promotion, and the state in economic development. The Journal of Developing Areas 1994, 28(4):535-554.
40. Hakura D., Billmeier A. Trade Elasticities in the Middle East and Central Asia: What is the Role of Oil?. IMF working paper WP/08/216 2008.
41. Hanson K., Robinson S., Schluter G. Sectoral effects of a world oil price shock: economy wide linkages to the agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1993, 18(1):96-116.
42. Harri A., Nalley L., Hudson D. The relationship between oil, exchange rates, and commodity prices. Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics 2008, 41(2):501-510.
43. Hoffmann L., Jarass L. The impact of rising oil prices on oil-importing developing countries and the scope for adjustment. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1983, 119(2):297-316.
44. IEA Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy 2004, International Energy Agency, Paris.
45. IEA The impact of financial and Economic crises on Global Energy Investment Online available at:. http://www.iea.org/ebc/files/impact.pdf.
46. IFS (2011). International Financial Statistics 2011, International Monetary Fund, Washington, available online at accessed on Mach 15, 2012. http://www.imfstatistics.org/imf.
47. Islam R. Some macroeconomic implications of higher oil prices for Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Development Studies 1981, 9(2):1-20.
48. Jamali M., Shah A., Shafiq K., Shaikh F., Soomro H. Oil Price Shocks: A Comparative Study on the Impacts in Purchasing Power in Pakistan. Modern Applied Science 2011, 5(2):1-12.
49. Khan F. Alternative energy solution for Pakistan-Solar Power Online available at:, (accessed on 21st January, 2012). http://www.technologicaltimes.pk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/pv_flat_roof_mount-p-copy.png.
50. Khan A.A., Bukhari K.H., Ahmed Q.M. Determinants of recent inflation in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 2007, 35(4):747-759.
51. Kiani A. Impart of high oil prices on Pakistan's Economic Growth. International Journal of Business and Social Science 2009, 2(17):1-8.
52. Kilian L., Rebucci A., Spatafora N. Oil shocks and external balances. Journal of International Economics 2008, 77(2):181-194.
53. Kooros S.K., Sussan A.P., Semetesy M. The impact of oil prices on employment. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 2006, 6(5):136-154.
54. Lane P.R., Milesi-Ferretti G.M. External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate. European Economic Review 2002, 46(6):1049-1071.
55. Lane P., Milesi-Ferretti G. External Adjustment and the Global Crisis. The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp369 2011.
56. Lardic S., Mignon V. The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: an empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy Policy 2006, 34(18):3910-3915.
57. Laugerud T., Mkandawire S., Kantchewa E. Enhancing Food Security and Developing Sustainable Rural Livelihoods Project 2009, NORAD, Oslo.
58. Le T. Oil prices shocks and trade Imbalance. International Finance Discussion Papers Number 897 2011, Online available at: http://www.freit.org/WorkingPapers/Papers/TradePolicyRegional/FREIT382.pdf (accessed on 21st March, 2012).
59. Liew K.S. Which lag length selection criteria should we employ?. Economics Bulletin 2004, 3(33):1-9.
60. Lund Energy Security in Europe. Working paper: Centre for European Studies (CFE) 2008, Online available at: www.cfe.lu.se (accessed on 29th May, 2012).
61. Lütkepohl H. Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis 1991, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
62. MacKinnon J.G. Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics 1996, 11(6):601-618.
63. Mahboob R. Thar coal can energize Pakistan Online available at:, (accessed on 14 April, 2012). http://www.technologicaltimes.pk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/coal52281-p-copy.png.
64. Malik A. Crude oil price, monetary policy and output": case of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 2008, 47(4):425-436.
65. Malik A. How Pakistan is coping with the challenge of High Oil Prices Online available at:, (accessed on 10th March, 2012). http://www.pide.org.pk/psde23/pdf/Afia%20Malik.pdf.
66. Malik A. Oil prices and economic activity in Pakistan. South Asia Economic Journal 2010, 11(2):23-244.
67. Mirza J. Energy supplies lean towards expensive oil Online available at:, (accessed on 4th January, 2012). http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-98702-Energy-supplies-lean-towards-expensive-oil.
68. Mohammad S.D. The impact of oil prices volatility on export earning in Pakistan. European Journal of Scientific Research 2010, 41(4):543-550.
69. Mussa M. The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy 2000, Research Department IMF, Online available at: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/index.htm (accessed on 16 March, 2012).
70. Nakov A., Pescatori A. Inflation-Output Gap Trade-Off with a Dominant Oil Supplier Online available at:, (accessed on 21st March, 2012). http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0723e.pdf.
71. Nakov A., Pescatori A. Inflation- output gap trade-off with dominant oil supplier. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0710 2007, Online available at: www.clevelandfed.org/research/Workpaper/2007/wp0710.pdf (accessed on 27 March, 2012).
72. Narayan P.K. Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Economic Modelling 2005, 22(3):423-438.
73. Nikbakht L. Oil prices and exchange rates: the case of OPEC. Business Intelligence Journal 2010, 3(2):83-92.
74. Otto G. Can an intertemporal model explain Austria's current account deficit?. The Australian Economic Review 2003, 36(3):350-359.
75. Ozlale U., Pekkurnaz D. Oil prices and current account: a structural analysis for Turkish economy. Energy Policy 2010, 38(8):4489-4496.
76. Pakistan Economy Profile Online available at:, (accessed on 21st June, 2012). http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/economy_profile.html.
77. Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., Smith R. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001, 16(3):289-326.
78. Rasmussen T.N., Roitman A. Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they really that Bad?. IMF Working Paper No: WP/11/194 2011.
79. Rasool A.K. 5 steps to solving Pakistan's energy crisis Online available at:, (accessed on 17May, 2012). http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/10507/5-steps-to-solving-pakistans-energy-crisis/.
80. Rautava J. The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy- cointegration approach. Journal of Comparative Economics 2004, 32(2):315-327.
81. Regnier E. Oil and energy price volatility. Energy Economics 2007, 29(2):405-427.
82. Rock M. Exploring the impact of selective Interventions in Agriculture on the Growth of Manufactures in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Journal of International Development 2002, 14(4):485-510.
83. Sanchez M. Welfare effects of rising oil prices in oil-importing developing Economies. The Developing Economies 2011, 49(3):321-346.
84. SBP Implications of Liberalizing Trade and Investment with India- Industry Specific Opportunities and Threats. State Bank of Pakistan report, Research and Economic Policy Departments 2006, Online available at: http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/pak-india-trade/Chap_4.pdf (accessed on 12 March, 2012).
85. Schubert S.F. Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account Online available at:, (accessed on 11 March, 2012). http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16738/.
86. Schubert S., Turnovsky S. The impact of energy prices on growth and welfare in a developing open economy. Open Economic Review 2011, 22(2):365-386.
87. Sengonul A., Degirmen S. Effects of oil prices on net private saving gap: 2001 crisis in Turkey. African Journal of Business Management 2011, 5(22):8707-8714.
88. Shao Z. Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance: An Empirical Study of the Case of Japan Online available at:, (accessed on 2nd February, 2012). http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/etd_coll/15.
89. Sherbaz S., Amjad F., Khan N. Output Gap and its determinants: Evidence from Pakistan"1963-2005. 24th meeting of PSDE, Pakistan Development Review, Islamabad, Pakistan 2006, 1-19. Online available at: http://www.pide.org.pk/psde24/pdf/05.pdf(accessed on 21st March, 2012).
90. Singh T. Intertemporal optimizing models of trade and current account balance: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys 2009, 21(1):26-54.
91. State Bank of Pakistan Annual Report Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Policy Online available at:, (accessed on 22 March, 2012). http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arFY01/chap9.pdf.
92. The World Bank The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. Commission on Growth and Development 2008.
93. Trung L.V., Vinh N.T.T. The Impact of 0il Prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity. Novel Evidence foe Vietnam 2011, Research Institute for Economic and Business Administration, Knobe University, Online available at: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2011-09.pdf (accessed on 21st June, 2012).
94. Walliullah Kakar M.K., Kakar R., Khan W. The determinants of Pakistan's trade balance: "An ARDL cointegration approach. The Lahore Journal of Economics 2010, 15(1):1-26.
95. Waseem, M.T., (2002)". Is petroleum price too high in Pakistan?" Finance and Markets- Business Magazine. Online available at: on 17 March, 2012). http://www.pakistaneconomist.com/issue2002/issue4/f&m3.htm(accessed.
96. WDI (2011). World Development Indicator, The World Bank Group. Online available at: (accessed on 21st March, 2012). http://go.worldbank.org/U0FSM7AQ40.
97. Williams J.L. World in motion-importance of oil Online available at:, (accessed on 5th March, 2012). http://scotterb.wordpress.com/.
98. Wilson P. Exchange rates and the trade balance for dynamic Asian economies-does the J-curve exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?. Open Economies Review 2001, 12(1):389-413.
99. World Economic outlook Slowing Growth, Rising Risks. A survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund 2011, Online available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/pdf/text.pdf (accessed on 21st March, 2012).
100. Zaouali S. Impact of higher oil prices on the Chinese economy. OPEC Energy Review 2007, 31(2):191-214.