메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 39, Issue 18, 2012, Pages 13517-13522

Customer event history for churn prediction: How long is long enough?

Author keywords

Explanatory period; Independent period; Length of customer event history; Predictive analytics; Predictive customer churn model; Time window

Indexed keywords

BIG DATUM; CLASSIFICATION TREES; CUSTOMER CHURN PREDICTION; DATA AUGMENTATION; DATA STORAGE; EXPLANATORY PERIOD; INDEPENDENT PERIOD; ITS DATA; LITERATURE REVIEWS; LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS; PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS; PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE; TIME WINDOWS;

EID: 84865244941     PISSN: 09574174     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2012.07.006     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (67)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 0034148454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Customer satisfaction cues to support market segmentation and explain switching behavior
    • A.D. Athanassopoulos Customer satisfaction cues to support market segmentation and explain switching behavior Journal of Business Research 47 3 2000 191 207
    • (2000) Journal of Business Research , vol.47 , Issue.3 , pp. 191-207
    • Athanassopoulos, A.D.1
  • 3
    • 78149268550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Data augmentation by predicting spending pleasure using commercially available external data
    • P. Baecke, and D. Van den Poel Data augmentation by predicting spending pleasure using commercially available external data Journal of Intelligent Information Systems. 36 3 2011 367 383
    • (2011) Journal of Intelligent Information Systems. , vol.36 , Issue.3 , pp. 367-383
    • Baecke, P.1    Van Den Poel, D.2
  • 4
    • 0036532641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing
    • DOI 10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00129-1, PII S0377221701001291
    • B. Baesens, S. Viaene, D. Van den Poel, J. Vanthienen, and G. Dedene Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing European Journal of Operational Research 138 1 2002 191 211 (Pubitemid 34043468)
    • (2002) European Journal of Operational Research , vol.138 , Issue.1 , pp. 191-211
    • Baesens, B.1    Viaene, S.2    Van Den Poel, D.3    Vanthienen, J.4    Dedene, G.5
  • 5
    • 0002664273 scopus 로고
    • A direct mail customer purchase model
    • C.L. Bauer A direct mail customer purchase model Journal of Direct Marketing 2 3 1988 16 24
    • (1988) Journal of Direct Marketing , vol.2 , Issue.3 , pp. 16-24
    • Bauer, C.L.1
  • 6
    • 0032344641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When customers are members: Customer retention in paid membership contexts
    • C.B. Bhattacharya When customers are members: Customer retention in paid membership contexts Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 26 1 1998 31 44
    • (1998) Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science , vol.26 , Issue.1 , pp. 31-44
    • Bhattacharya, C.B.1
  • 7
    • 0030211964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bagging predictors
    • L. Breiman Bagging predictors Machine Learning 24 2 1996 123 140 (Pubitemid 126724382)
    • (1996) Machine Learning , vol.24 , Issue.2 , pp. 123-140
    • Breiman, L.1
  • 9
    • 10444274107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Customer base analysis: Partial defection of behaviorally-loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting
    • W. Buckinx, and D. Van den Poel Customer base analysis: Partial defection of behaviorally-loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting European Journal of Operational Research 164 1 2005 252 268
    • (2005) European Journal of Operational Research , vol.164 , Issue.1 , pp. 252-268
    • Buckinx, W.1    Van Den Poel, D.2
  • 10
    • 70449526531 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved marketing decision making in a customer churn prediction context using generalized additive models
    • K. Coussement, D.F. Benoit, and D. Van den Poel Improved marketing decision making in a customer churn prediction context using generalized additive models Expert Systems with Applications 37 3 2010 2132 2143
    • (2010) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.37 , Issue.3 , pp. 2132-2143
    • Coussement, K.1    Benoit, D.F.2    Van Den Poel, D.3
  • 11
    • 4244127902 scopus 로고
    • Picking them by their batting averages' recency-frequency-monetary method of controlling circulation
    • Cullinan, G. J. (1977). Picking them by their batting averages' recency-frequency-monetary method of controlling circulation. Manual release 2103, NY: Direct Mail/Marketing Association.
    • (1977) Manual Release 2103, NY: Direct Mail/Marketing Association
    • Cullinan, G.J.1
  • 12
    • 79958004813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An empirical evaluation of rotation-based ensemble classifiers for customer churn prediction
    • K.W. De Bock, and D. Van den Poel An empirical evaluation of rotation-based ensemble classifiers for customer churn prediction Expert Systems with Applications 38 10 2011 12293 12301
    • (2011) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.38 , Issue.10 , pp. 12293-12301
    • De Bock, K.W.1    Van Den Poel, D.2
  • 13
    • 0023710206 scopus 로고
    • Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: A nonparametric approach
    • E.R. DeLong, D.M. DeLong, and D.L. Clarke-Pearson Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: A nonparametric approach Biometrics 44 3 1988 837 845
    • (1988) Biometrics , vol.44 , Issue.3 , pp. 837-845
    • Delong, E.R.1    Delong, D.M.2    Clarke-Pearson, D.L.3
  • 14
    • 21744448471 scopus 로고
    • Determinants of long-term orientation in buyer-seller relationships
    • S. Ganesan Determinants of long-term orientation in buyer-seller relationships Journal of Marketing 58 2 1994 1 19
    • (1994) Journal of Marketing , vol.58 , Issue.2 , pp. 1-19
    • Ganesan, S.1
  • 15
    • 0020083498 scopus 로고
    • The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve
    • J.A. Hanley, and B.J. McNeil The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve Radiology 143 1 1982 29 36 (Pubitemid 12142173)
    • (1982) Radiology , vol.143 , Issue.1 , pp. 29-36
    • Hanley, J.A.1    McNeil, B.J.2
  • 16
    • 0001983468 scopus 로고
    • Direct marketing modeling with CART and CHAID
    • D. Haughton, and S. Oulabi Direct marketing modeling with CART and CHAID Journal of Direct Marketing 11 4 1993 42 52
    • (1993) Journal of Direct Marketing , vol.11 , Issue.4 , pp. 42-52
    • Haughton, D.1    Oulabi, S.2
  • 17
    • 33748544940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Network-based marketing: Identifying likely adopters via consumer networks
    • DOI 10.1214/088342306000000222
    • S. Hill, F. Provost, and C. Volinsky Network-based marketing: Identifying likely adopters via consumer networks Statistical Science 21 2 2006 256 276 (Pubitemid 44367642)
    • (2006) Statistical Science , vol.21 , Issue.2 , pp. 256-276
    • Hill, S.1    Provost, F.2    Volinsky, C.3
  • 19
    • 33744831465 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying data mining to telecom churn management
    • DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2005.09.080, PII S0957417405002654
    • S.-Y. Hung, D.C. Yen, and H.-Y. Wang Applying data mining to telecom churn management Expert Systems with Applications 31 3 2006 515 524 (Pubitemid 43831631)
    • (2006) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.31 , Issue.3 , pp. 515-524
    • Hung, S.-Y.1    Yen, D.C.2    Wang, H.-Y.3
  • 20
    • 0000661829 scopus 로고
    • An exploratory technique for investigating large quantities of categorical data
    • G.V. Kass An exploratory technique for investigating large quantities of categorical data Applied Statistics 29 2 1980 119 127
    • (1980) Applied Statistics , vol.29 , Issue.2 , pp. 119-127
    • Kass, G.V.1
  • 21
    • 23044530150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Customer switching behaviour in online services: An exploratory study of the role of selected attitudinal, behavioural, and demographic factors
    • S.M. Keaveney, and M. Parthasarathy Customer switching behaviour in online services: An exploratory study of the role of selected attitudinal, behavioural, and demographic factors Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 29 4 2001 374 390
    • (2001) Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science , vol.29 , Issue.4 , pp. 374-390
    • Keaveney, S.M.1    Parthasarathy, M.2
  • 22
    • 0029306995 scopus 로고
    • Statlog-comparison of classification algorithms on large real-world problems
    • R.D. King, C. Feng, and A. Sutherland Statlog-comparison of classification algorithms on large real-world problems Applied Artificial Intelligence 9 3 1995 289 333
    • (1995) Applied Artificial Intelligence , vol.9 , Issue.3 , pp. 289-333
    • King, R.D.1    Feng, C.2    Sutherland, A.3
  • 23
  • 24
    • 22144481002 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting customer retention and profitability by using random forests and regression forests techniques
    • DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2005.04.043, PII S0957417405000965
    • B. Larivire, and D. Van den Poel Predicting customer retention and profitability by using random forests and regression forests techniques Expert Systems with Applications 29 2 2005 472 484 (Pubitemid 40970656)
    • (2005) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.29 , Issue.2 , pp. 472-484
    • Lariviere, B.1    Van Den Poel, D.2
  • 25
    • 0040449126 scopus 로고
    • The lognormal distribution of buying frequency rates
    • R.J. Lawrence The lognormal distribution of buying frequency rates Journal of Marketing Research 17 2 1980 212 220
    • (1980) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.17 , Issue.2 , pp. 212-220
    • Lawrence, R.J.1
  • 26
    • 33744526493 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn
    • DOI 10.1509/jmkr.43.2.276
    • A. Lemmens, and C. Croux Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn Journal of Marketing Research 43 2 2006 276 286 (Pubitemid 43813059)
    • (2006) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.43 , Issue.2 , pp. 276-286
    • Lemmens, A.1    Croux, C.2
  • 27
    • 0002440347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Segmentation analysis with managerial judgment
    • N. Levin, and J. Zahavi Segmentation analysis with managerial judgment Journal of Direct Marketing 10 3 1996 28 47
    • (1996) Journal of Direct Marketing , vol.10 , Issue.3 , pp. 28-47
    • Levin, N.1    Zahavi, J.2
  • 29
    • 55449092991 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving predictive scoring models through model aggregation
    • E.C. Malthouse, and K.M. Derenthal Improving predictive scoring models through model aggregation Journal of Interactive Marketing 22 3 2008 51 68
    • (2008) Journal of Interactive Marketing , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 51-68
    • Malthouse, E.C.1    Derenthal, K.M.2
  • 31
    • 34247603517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Segmentation approaches in data-mining: A comparison of RFM, CHAID, and logistic regression
    • J.A. McCarty, and M. Hastak Segmentation approaches in data-mining: A comparison of RFM, CHAID, and logistic regression Journal of Business Research 60 6 2007 656 662
    • (2007) Journal of Business Research , vol.60 , Issue.6 , pp. 656-662
    • McCarty, J.A.1    Hastak, M.2
  • 32
    • 84857175583 scopus 로고
    • Interpurchase time and brand loyalty
    • D.G. Morrison Interpurchase time and brand loyalty Journal of Marketing Research 3 3 1966 281 291
    • (1966) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.3 , Issue.3 , pp. 281-291
    • Morrison, D.G.1
  • 33
    • 33744509693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Defection detection: Measuring and understanding the predictive accuracy of customer churn models
    • DOI 10.1509/jmkr.43.2.204
    • S.A. Neslin, S. Gupta, K. Wagner, J. Lu, and C.H. Mason Defection detection: Measuring and understanding the predictive accuracy of customer churn models Journal of Marketing Research 43 2 2006 204 211 (Pubitemid 43813052)
    • (2006) Journal of Marketing Research , vol.43 , Issue.2 , pp. 204-211
    • Neslin, S.A.1    Gupta, S.2    Kamakura, W.3    Junxiang, L.U.4    Mason, C.H.5
  • 35
    • 37349073894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Random Forests for multiclass classification: Random MultiNomial Logit
    • DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2007.01.029, PII S0957417407000498
    • A. Prinzie, and D. Van den Poel Random forests for multiclass classification: Random MultiNomial Logit Expert Systems with Applications 34 2008 1721 1732 (Pubitemid 350298198)
    • (2008) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.34 , Issue.3 , pp. 1721-1732
    • Prinzie, A.1    Van Den Poel, D.2
  • 36
    • 0002900357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The case against accuracy estimation for comparing induction algorithms
    • J. Shavlik (Ed.) ICML-1998. Morgan Kaufman, San Francisco, CA
    • Provost, F.; Fawcett, T.; & Kohavi, R. (1998). The case against accuracy estimation for comparing induction algorithms. In: J. Shavlik (Ed.), Proceedings of 15th international conference on machine learning. ICML-1998. Morgan Kaufman, San Francisco, CA.
    • (1998) Proceedings of 15th International Conference on Machine Learning
    • Provost, F.1    Fawcett, T.2    Kohavi, R.3
  • 37
  • 38
    • 0036636299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The mismanagement of customer loyalty
    • W.J. Reinartz, and V. Kumar The mismanagement of customer loyalty Harvard Business Review 80 7 2002 86 94
    • (2002) Harvard Business Review , vol.80 , Issue.7 , pp. 86-94
    • Reinartz, W.J.1    Kumar, V.2
  • 39
    • 0037257247 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of customer relationship characteristics on profitable lifetime duration
    • DOI 10.1509/jmkg.67.1.77.18589
    • W.J. Reinartz, and V. Kumar The impact of customer relationship characteristics on profitable lifetime duration Journal of Marketing 67 1 2003 77 99 (Pubitemid 36161225)
    • (2003) Journal of Marketing , vol.67 , Issue.1 , pp. 77-99
    • Reinartz, W.J.1    Kumar, V.2
  • 41
    • 33144459635 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Response modeling with support vector machines
    • DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2005.07.037, PII S0957417405001715
    • H. Shin, and S. Cho Response modeling with support vector machines Expert Systems with Applications 30 4 2006 746 760 (Pubitemid 43267434)
    • (2006) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.30 , Issue.4 , pp. 746-760
    • Shin, H.1    Cho, S.2
  • 42
    • 0000283391 scopus 로고
    • The dissolution of romantic relationships: Factors involved in relationship stability and emotional distress
    • J.A. Simpson The dissolution of romantic relationships: Factors involved in relationship stability and emotional distress Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 53 4 1987 683 692
    • (1987) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.53 , Issue.4 , pp. 683-692
    • Simpson, J.A.1
  • 43
    • 0037412968 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Massively categorical variables: Revealing the information in zip codes
    • T.J. Steenburgh, A. Ainsle, and P.H. Engbretson Massively categorical variables, revealing the information in ZIP codes Marketing Science 22 1 2003 40 57 (Pubitemid 36446307)
    • (2003) Marketing Science , vol.22 , Issue.1 , pp. 40-57
    • Steenburgh, T.J.1    Ainslie, A.2    Engebretson, F.H.3
  • 44
    • 1442305744 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting mail-order repeat buying: Which variables matter?
    • D. Van den Poel Predicting mail-order repeat buying: Which variables matter? Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management 48 3 2003 371 403
    • (2003) Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management , vol.48 , Issue.3 , pp. 371-403
    • Van Den Poel, D.1
  • 45
    • 13544276825 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting online-purchasing behaviour
    • DOI 10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.022, PII S0377221704002875
    • D. Van den Poel, and W. Buckinx Predicting online-purchasing behaviour European Journal of Operational Research 166 2 2005 557 575 (Pubitemid 40219808)
    • (2005) European Journal of Operational Research , vol.166 , Issue.2 , pp. 557-575
    • Van Den Poel, D.1    Buckinx, W.2
  • 46
    • 0036696364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Turning telecommunications call details to churn prediction: A data mining approach
    • C.P. Wei, and I.T. Chiu Turning telecommunications call details to churn prediction: A data mining approach Expert Systems with Applications 23 2 2002 103 112
    • (2002) Expert Systems with Applications , vol.23 , Issue.2 , pp. 103-112
    • Wei, C.P.1    Chiu, I.T.2
  • 47
    • 79960474345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying neural computing to target marketing
    • J. Zahavi, and N. Levin Applying neural computing to target marketing Journal of Direct Marketing 11 1 1997 5 22
    • (1997) Journal of Direct Marketing , vol.11 , Issue.1 , pp. 5-22
    • Zahavi, J.1    Levin, N.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.