Were global M ≥ 8.3 earthquake time intervals random between 1900 and 2011?

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Volumn 102, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 1583-1592

  Parsons, Tom ^a   Geist, Eric L ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES; EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS; GREAT EARTHQUAKE; POISSON PROCESS; QUIESCENT PERIOD; SYNTHETIC CATALOGS; TEMPORAL CLUSTERING; TIME INTERVAL;

POISSON DISTRIBUTION;

EARTHQUAKES;

EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE TRIGGER;

EID: 84864967985     PISSN: 00371106     EISSN: 19433573     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/0120110282     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Barcott, B. (2011). Totally psyched for the full-rip nine, Outside 10, 104-123.
2. Bartlett, M. S. (1946). On the theoretical specification and sampling properties of autocorrelated time-series, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Suppl. 8, 27-41.
3. Brockwell, P. J., and R. A. Davis (2002). Introduction to Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Springer, New York, 456 pp.
4. Bufe, C. G., and D. M. Perkins (2005). Evidence for a global seismicmoment release sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 833-843, doi: 10.1785/0120040110.
5. Chery, J., S. Carretier, and J.-F. Ritz (2001). Postseismic stress transfer explains time clustering of large earthquakes in Mongolia, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 194, 277-286, doi: 10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00552-0.
6. Corral, A. (2004). Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 4, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.108501.
7. Das, S., and C. Scholz (1981). Off-fault aftershock clusters caused by shear stress increase?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 71, 1669-1675.
8. Engdahl, E. R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999, in International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Part A, W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger (Editors), Academic Press, San Diego, California, 665-690.
9. Freed, A. M. (2005). Earthquake triggering by static, dynamic, and postseismic stress transfer, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 33, 335-367, doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505.
10. Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2011). Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence, Geophys. J. Int. 187, 497-509, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05160.x.
11. Gomberg, J., P. Bodin, K. Larson, and H. Dragert (2004). Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M 7:9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake, Nature 427, 621-624, doi: 10.1038/nature02335.
12. Hainzl, S., F. Scherbaum, and C. Beauval (2006). Estimating background activity based on interevent-time distribution, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, 313-320, doi: 10.1785/0120050053.
13. Hill, D. P. (2008). Dynamic stresses, Coulomb failure, and remote triggering, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 66-92, doi: 10.1785/0120070049.
14. Hill, D. P., P. A. Reasonberg, A. Michael, W. J. Arabasz, G. Beroza, J. N. Brune, D. Brumbaugh, R. Castro, S. Davis, D. dePolo, W. L. Ellsworth, J. Gomberg, S. Harmsen, L. House, S. M. Jackson, M. Johnston, L. Jones, R. Keller, S. Malone, L. Munguia, S. Nava, J. C. Pechmann, A. Sanford, R. W. Simpson, R. S. Smith, M. Stark, M. Stickney, A. Vidal, S. Walter, V. Wong, and J. Zollweg (1993). Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude M 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake, Science 260, 1617-1623, doi: 10.1126/science.260.5114.1617.
15. King, G., C. P. King, R. S. Stein, and J. Lin (1994). Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 935-953.
16. Michael, A. J. (2011). Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L21301, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049443.
17. Nalbant, S. S., S. Steacy, K. Sieh, D. Natawidjaja, and J. McCloskey (2005). Seismology: Earthquake risk on the Sunda trench, Nature 435, 756-757, doi: 10.1038/nature435756a.
18. Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 50, 379-402.
19. Omori, F. (1894). On the aftershocks of earthquakes, Rep. Imp. Earthq. Invest. Comm. 2, 103-109.
20. Parsons, T. (2002). Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone, J. Geophys. Res. 107, no. 2199, 20, doi: 10.1029/2001JB000646.
21. Parsons, T., and A. A. Velasco (2011). Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the main shock region, Nat. Geosci. 4, 312-316, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1110.
22. Pollitz, F. F., R. Burgmann, and B. Romanowicz (1998). Viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes, Science 280, 1245-1249.
23. Ruppert, N. A., J. M. Lees, and N. P. Kozyreva (2007). Seismicity, earthquakes and structure along the Alaska-Aleutian and Kamchatka-Kurile subduction zones: A review, in Volcanism and Subduction: The Kamchatka Region, J. Eichelberger, E. Gordeev, P. Izbekov, M. Kasahara, and J. Lees (Editors), Vol. 172, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 129-144, doi: 10.1029/172GM12.
24. Shearer, P. M., and P. B. Stark (2012). Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 717-721, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1118525109.
25. Stein, R. S., J. Lin, S. Toda, and S. E. Barrientos (2010). Strong static stress interaction of the 1960 M 9:5 and 2010 M 8:8 Chile earthquakes and their aftershocks, Presented at the Fall Meeting of AGU, December 2010, San Francisco, California.
26. Stein, R. S., and M. Lisowski (1983). The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, California: Control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation, J. Geophys. Res. 88, no. B8, 6477-6490, doi: 10.1029/JB088iB08p06477.
27. Winchester, S., The scariest earthquake is yet to come, Newsweek, March 13, 2011.
28. Wiseman, K., and R. Bürgmann (2011). Stress and seismicity changes on the Sunda megathrust preceding the 2007 Mw 8.4 earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 313-326, doi: 10.1785/0120100063.
29. Yamashina, K. (1978). Induced earthquakes in the Izu Peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of 1974, Japan, Tectonophysics 51, 139-154, doi: 10.1016/0040-1951(78)90237-8.