Assessment of climate change impacts on the quantity and quality of a coastal catchment using a coupled groundwater-surface water model

Climatic Change

Volumn 113, Issue 3-4, 2012, Pages 1025-1048

  Sonnenborg, Torben O ^a   Hinsby, Klaus ^a   van Roosmalen, Lieke ^b   Stisen, Simon ^a  

^a GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF DENMARK AND GREENLAND   (Denmark)

^b FLINDERS UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS; COASTAL CATCHMENTS; COASTAL WATERS; COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS; LARGE LAKES; NUTRIENT LOADS; STORAGE CAPACITY; SUSTAINABLE WATER; WATER MODELS; WATER QUANTITIES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EUTROPHICATION; GROUNDWATER; LAKES; RUNOFF; SEA LEVEL; WATER CONSERVATION; WATER QUALITY; WATER SUPPLY;

CATCHMENTS;

CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; COASTAL ZONE; DOWNSCALING; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; EUTROPHICATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GROUNDWATER-SURFACE WATER INTERACTION; INFLOW; LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT; SALINE INTRUSION; SEA LEVEL; STREAM; WATER QUALITY; WATER SUPPLY;

EID: 84864760159     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0367-3     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrig. Drain. Pap, vol 56. Food and Agric. Org. of the U. N, Rome, p 290.
2. Allerup P, Madsen H, Vejen F (1998) Standard values (1961-90) for precipitation correction (in Danish). Tech. Rep, vol 98 - 10. Dan. Meteorol. Inst, Copenhagen, p 64.
3. Andersen HE, Kronvang B, Larsen SE, Hoffmann CC, Jensen TS, Rasmussen EK (2006) Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin. Sci Total Environ 365: 223-237.
4. Andréasson J, Bergström S, Carlsson B, Graham LP, Lindström G (2004) Hydrological change-climate change impact simulations for Sweden. Ambio 33: 228-234.
5. Arnell NW (1998) Climate change and water resources in Britain. Clim Chang 39: 83-110.
6. Bergström S, Carlsson B, Gardelin M, Lindström G, Pettersson A, Rummukainen M (2001) Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modeling. Clim Res 16: 101-112.
7. Chertow MR (2000) Industrial symbiosis: literature and taxonomy. Ann Rev Energy Environ 25: 313-337.
8. Chertow MR (2007) "Uncovering" industrial symbiosis. J Ind Ecol 11(1): 11-30.
9. Chow VT, Maidment DR, Mays LW (1988) Applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York.
10. Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Clim Chang 81: 7-30.
11. Christensen JH, Christensen OB, Lopez P, van Meijgaard E, Botzet M (1996) The HIRHAM4 regional atmospheric climate model. SC Rep. Danish Meteorological Inst, Copenhagen, pp 96-104.
12. Christensen OB, Christensen JH, Machenhauer B, Botzet M (1998) Very high-resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia: Present climate. J Clim 11(12): 3204-3229.
13. Déqué M, Rowell DP, Lüthi D, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, Rockel B, Jacob D, Kjellström E, de Castro M, van den Hurk B (2007) An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Clim Chang 81: 53-70.
14. Diaz RJ, Rosenberg R (2008) Spreading dead zones and consequences for marine ecosystems. Science 321(5891): 926-929.
15. Diaz RJ, Rosenberg R, Rabalais NN, Levin LA (2009) Dead zone dilemma. Mar Pollut Bull 58(12): 1767-1768.
16. Doherty J (2004) PEST: Model-independent parameter estimation. Fifth Edition of User Manual. Watermark Numerical Computing, Brisbane.
17. Ekman M (1996) A consistent map of the postglacial uplift of Fennoscandia. Terra Nova 8: 158-165.
18. EU 2000. Directive 2000/60/EC ("The Water Framework Directive").
19. EU 2006. Directive 2006/118/EC ("The Groundwater Directive").
20. EU 2007. Directive 2007/60/EC ("The Flood Directive").
21. EU 2008. Directive 2008/56/EC ("The Marine Strategy Directive").
22. Graham LP (2004) Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33: 235-241.
23. Graham DN, Butts MB (2006) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE. In: Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds) Watershed models. Taylor and Francis, Boca Raton, Fla, pp 245-272.
24. Graham LP, Andréasson J, Carlsson B (2007a) Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods-a case study on the Lule River basin. Clim Chang 81: 293-307. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-006-9215-2.
25. Graham LP, Hagemann S, Jaun S, Beniston M (2007b) On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Clim Chang 81: 97-122. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-006-9217-0.
26. Grant R (ed) (2007) Landovervågningsoplande 2006. Report for unsaturated zone and shallow groundwater at agricultural monitoring sites. National Environmental Research Institute, University Aarhus, Danish, p 126.
27. Hagebro C, Bang S, Somer E (1983) Nitrate load/discharge relationships and nitrate load trends in Danish rivers, dissolved loads of rivers and surface water quantity/quality relationships. Proceedings of the Hamburg Symposium. IAHS Publ 141: 377-386.
28. Hagg HE, Humborg C, Morth CM, Medina MR, Wulff F (2010) Scenario analysis on protein consumption and climate change effects on riverine N export to the Baltic Sea. Environ Sci Technol 44(7): 2379-2385.
29. Hay LE, Wilby RL, Leavesley GH (2000) A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States. J Am Water Res Assoc 36: 387-398.
30. HELCOM (2007) HELCOM-Baltic Sea Action Plan. HELCOM Ministerial Meeting, Krakow, p 101.
31. Henriksen HJ, Troldborg L, Nyegaard P, Sonnenborg TO, Refsgaard JC, Madsen B (2003) Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark. J Hydrol 280: 52-71. doi: 10. 1016/S0022-1694(03)00186-0.
32. Hinsby K, Jørgensen LF (2009) Groundwater monitoring in Denmark and the Odense Pilot River Basin in relation to EU legislation. In: Quevauviller Ph, Fouillac AM, Grath J, Ward R (eds) Groundwater monitoring. Wiley, Hoboken, pp 207-224.
33. Hinsby K, de Melo MTC, Dahl M (2008) European case studies supporting the derivation of natural background levels and groundwater threshold values for the protection of dependent ecosystems and human health. Sci Total Environ 401(1-3): 1-20.
34. Højberg AL, Troldborg L, Nyegaard P, Ondracek M, Stisen S, Christensen BSB, Nørgaard A (2008) National Water Resources Model: Sjælland, Lolland, Falster og Møn-Opdating January 2008 (in Danish). GEUS Report 2008/65, Copenhagen.
35. Holm TF (2008) Measurement of the downstream part of Halleby stream including tributaries, Main course (in Danish). Municipality of Kalundborg, pp. 84.
36. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, p 570.
37. Jacobsen NB (2006) Industrial symbiosis in Kalundborg, Denmark-a quantitative assessment of economic and environmental aspects. J Ind Ecol 10(1-2): 239-255.
38. Jeppesen E, Kronvang B, Meerhoff M, Sondergaard M, Hansen KM, Andersen HE, Lauridsen TL, Liboriussen L, Beklioglu M, Ozen A, Olesen JE (2009) Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations. J Environ Qual 38(5): 1930-1941.
39. Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Hansson U, Strandberg G, Ullerstig A (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus 63(1): 24-40.
40. Kristensen KJ, Jensen SE (1975) A model for estimating actual evapotranspiration from potential evapotranspiration. Nordic Hydrol 6: 70-88.
41. Kronvang B, Jeppesen E, Conley DJ, Sondergaard M, Larsen SE, Ovesen NB, Carstensen J (2005) Nutrient pressures and ecological responses to nutrient loading reductions in Danish streams, lakes and coastal waters. J Hydrol 304(1-4): 274-288.
42. Larsen MAD, Soegaard H, Hinsby K (2008) Temporal trends in N & P concentrations and loads in relation to anthropogenic effects and discharge in Odense River 1964-2002. Hydrol Res 39(1): 41-54.
43. Lettenmaier DP, Wood AW, Palmer RN, Wood EF, Stakhiv EZ (1999) Water resources implications of global warming: a U. S. regional perspective. Clim Chang 43: 537-579.
44. Middelkoop H, Daamen K, Gellens D, Grabs W, Kwadijk JCJ, Lang H, Parmet BWAH, Schädler B, Schulla J, Wilke K (2001) Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine Basin. Clim Chang 49: 105-128.
45. Montoya M, Griesel A, Levermann A, Mignot J, Hofmann M, Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S (2008) The earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α, Part I. Description and performance for present-day conditions.Clim Dyn 25(2-3): 237-263.
46. Olesen JE, Carter TR, Az-Ambrona CH, Fronzek S, Heidmann T, Hickler T, Holt T, Minguez MI, Morales P, Palutikof JP, Quemada M, Ruiz-Ramos M, Rubaek GH, Sau F, Smith B, Sykes MT (2007) Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Clim Chang 81: 123-143.
47. Paerl HW, Huisman J (2009) Climate change: a catalyst for global expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms. Environ Microbiol Rep 1(1): 27-37.
48. Peltier WR (2000) Global glacial isostatic adjustment. In: Douglas BC, Kearney MS, Leatherman SP (eds) Sea-level rise: history and consequences. Academic Press, San Diego, pp 65-95.
49. Petoukhov V, Ganopolski A, Brovkin V, Claussen M, Eliseev A, Kubatzki C, Rahmstorf S (2000) CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: model description and performance for present climate. Clim Dyn 16(1): 1-17.
50. Raisanen J, Hansson U, Ullerstig A, Doscher R, Graham LP, Jones C, Meier HEM, Samuelsson P, Willen U (2004) European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Clim Dyn 22(1): 13-31.
51. Refsgaard JC, Storm B (1995) MIKE SHE. In: Singh VP (ed) Computer models of watershed hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Colorado, pp 809-846.
52. Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Hojberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process-a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22(11): 1543-1556.
53. Reynard NS, Prudhomme C, Crooks SM (2001) The flood characteristics of large U. K. rivers: potential effects of changing climate and land use. Clim Chang 48: 343-359.
54. Riisgård HU, Jensen MH, Rask N (2008) Odense Fjord and Kerteminde Fjord/Kertinge Nor. Chapter 16. In: Schiewer U (ed) Ecology of Baltic coastal waters. Ecological studies, vol 197. © Springer-Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 361-394.
55. Sanford WE, Pope JP (2010) Current challenges using models to forecast seawater intrusion: lessons from the eastern shore of Virginia, USA. Hydrogeol J 18(1): 73-93.
56. Scharling M (1999) Climate grid-Denmark. Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration 20 x 20 and 40 x 40 km (in Danish). Tech. Rep, vol 99-12. Dan. Meteorol. Inst, Copenhagen, p 48.
57. Shaffer G, Olsen SM, Pedersen JOP (2009) Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Nat Geosci 2(2): 105-109.
58. Sherif MM, Singh VP (1999) Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 13(8): 1277-1287.
59. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, p 996.
60. Thodsen H (2007) The influence of climate change on stream flow in Danish rivers. J Hydrol 333: 226-238.
61. Thorling L (ed.) (2007) Grundvand-status og udvikling 1989-2006. Groundwater monitoring report, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, www. grundvandsovervaagning. dk, 79 pp., in Danish (English summary).
62. van de Waal DB, Verschoor AM, Verspagen JMH, van Donk E, Huisman J (2010) Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 8(3): 145-152.
63. van der Keur P, Henriksen HJ, Refsgaard JC, Brugnach M, Pahl-Wostl C, Dewulf A, Buiteveld H (2008) Identification of major sources of uncertainty in current IWRM practice. Illustrated for the Rhine basin. Water Res Manag 22(11): 1677-1708.
64. van Roosmalen L, Christensen BSB, Sonnenborg TO (2007) Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark. Vadose Zone J 6: 554-571. doi: 10. 2136/vzj2006. 0093.
65. van Roosmalen L, Sonnenborg TO, Jensen KH (2009a) The impact of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. Water Resour Res 45: 1-18. doi: 10. 1029/2007WR006760.
66. van Roosmalen L, Christensen JH, Butts MB, Jensen KH, Refsgaard JC (2009b) An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark. J Hydrol 380(3-4): 406-419.
67. Werner AD, Simmons CT (2009) Impact of sea-level rise on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Ground Water 47(2): 197-204.
68. Windolf J, Jeppesen E, Jensen JP, Kristensen P (1996) Modelling of seasonal variation in nitrogen retention and in-lake concentration: a four-year mass balance study in 16 shallow Danish lakes. Biogeochemistry 33(1): 25-44.
69. Xu C (1999) From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches. Prog Phys Geogr 23(2): 229-249.
70. Xu CY, Widen E, Halldin S (2005) Modelling hydrological consequences of climate change-progress and challenges. Adv Atmospheric Sci 22(6): 789-797.
71. Yan J, Smith KR (1994) Simulation of integrated surface water and ground water systems: model formulation. Water Res Bull 30(5): 879-890.