National health expenditure projections: Modest annual growth until coverage expands and economic growth accelerates

Health Affairs

Volumn 31, Issue 7, 2012, Pages 1600-1612

  Keehan, Sean P ^a   Cuckler, Gigi A ^a   Sisko, Andrea M ^a   Madison, Andrew J ^a   Smith, Sheila D ^a   Lizonitz, Joseph M ^a   Poisal, John A ^a   Wolfe, Christian J ^a  

^a CENTERS FOR MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SERVICES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

PRESCRIPTION DRUG;

ARTICLE; COST; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; GROWTH RATE; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH CARE SYSTEM; HEALTH INSURANCE; HEALTH SERVICE; HOSPITAL CARE; HOSPITAL SERVICE; HUMAN; MEDICAID; MEDICAL SERVICE; MEDICARE;

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMICS, HOSPITAL; FINANCING, PERSONAL; FORECASTING; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HOSPITALS; HUMANS; INSURANCE COVERAGE; INSURANCE, HEALTH; MEDICAID; MEDICARE; MODELS, ECONOMETRIC; PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT; PHYSICIANS; PRESCRIPTION DRUGS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84864520950     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: 15445208     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2012.0404     Document Type: Article

References (26)

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8. Costs of employer-sponsored health insurance plans that exceed $ 10,200 for an individual employee or $ 27,500 for a family will be subject to a 40 percent tax
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12. The full effects from a 30.9 percent reduction in physician reimbursement are difficult to predict. No secondary effects of the reduction in physician payment rates are modeled in these projections. Under the alternative Medicare projection scenario, sequestration payment rate cuts of 2 percent across all services are still included in the projection.
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25. Per enrollee Medicaid expenditures are substantially higher for aged and disabled enrollees than for children and nondisabled adults. As a result, changes in the composition of the enrollee population can have a pronounced effect on growth in overall Medicaid expenditures per enrollee. For more information, see Truffer C, Klemm J, Wolfe C, Rennie K. 2011 actuarial report on the financial outlook for Medicaid [Internet], Baltimore (MD): Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; 2012 Mar 22 [cited 2012 Jun 1]. Available from: http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Research/Actuarial.Studies/downloads/Medicaid Report2011.pdf
26. Out-of-pocket spending consists of direct spending by consumers for health care goods and services, including copayments and deductibles. Enrollee premiums for private health insurance and Medicare are not included in this funding category.