메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 43, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 399-426

Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates

Author keywords

Density forecasts; ESTAR; Forecast evaluation; Non linear real exchange rate models; Non parametric methods; Purchasing power parity; Regime modelling

Indexed keywords

ECONOMETRICS; FORECASTING METHOD; NONLINEARITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PURCHASING POWER PARITY; REAL EXCHANGE RATE; SKEWNESS; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 84864367134     PISSN: 03777332     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0460-5     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (6)

References (28)
  • 1
    • 34248596321 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing density forecasts via weighted likelihood ratio tests
    • Amisano G, Giacomini R (2007) Comparing density forecasts via weighted likelihood ratio tests. J Bus Econ Stat 25(2): 177-190.
    • (2007) J Bus Econ Stat , vol.25 , Issue.2 , pp. 177-190
    • Amisano, G.1    Giacomini, R.2
  • 2
    • 34247574337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing density forecast models
    • Bao Y, Lee TH, Saltoǧlu B (2007) Comparing density forecast models. J Forecast 26(3): 203-225.
    • (2007) J Forecast , vol.26 , Issue.3 , pp. 203-225
    • Bao, Y.1    Lee, T.H.2    Saltoǧlu, B.3
  • 4
    • 38249010382 scopus 로고
    • Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting* 1
    • De Gooijer JG, Kumar K (1992) Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting* 1. Int J Forecast 8(2): 135-156.
    • (1992) Int J Forecast , vol.8 , Issue.2 , pp. 135-156
    • de Gooijer, J.G.1    Kumar, K.2
  • 5
    • 68249136965 scopus 로고
    • Comparing predictive accuracy
    • Diebold FX, Mariano RS (1995) Comparing predictive accuracy. J Bus Econ Stat 13(1): 253-263.
    • (1995) J Bus Econ Stat , vol.13 , Issue.1 , pp. 253-263
    • Diebold, F.X.1    Mariano, R.S.2
  • 6
    • 0002158185 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models
    • Eitrheim Ø, Teräsvirta T (1996) Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models. J Econ 74(1): 59-75.
    • (1996) J Econ , vol.74 , Issue.1 , pp. 59-75
    • Eitrheim, Ø.1    Teräsvirta, T.2
  • 9
    • 33750536645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of conditional predictive ability
    • Giacomini R, White H (2006) Tests of conditional predictive ability. Econometrica 74(6): 1545-1578.
    • (2006) Econometrica , vol.74 , Issue.6 , pp. 1545-1578
    • Giacomini, R.1    White, H.2
  • 11
    • 0031164783 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors
    • Harvey DI, Leybourne SJ, Newbold P (1997) Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors. Int J Forecast 13(2): 281-291.
    • (1997) Int J Forecast , vol.13 , Issue.2 , pp. 281-291
    • Harvey, D.I.1    Leybourne, S.J.2    Newbold, P.3
  • 12
    • 84954217469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with smooth transition autoregressive models
    • M. P. Clements and D. F. Hendry (Eds.), Oxford: Blackwell Publishers
    • Lundbergh S, Teräsvirta T (2002) Forecasting with smooth transition autoregressive models. In: ClementsMP, Hendry DF (eds) A Companion to economic forecasting. Blackwell Publishers, Oxford pp 485-509.
    • (2002) A Companion to Economic Forecasting , pp. 485-509
    • Lundbergh, S.1    Teräsvirta, T.2
  • 13
    • 84954241199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inference about predictive ability
    • M. P. Clements and D. F. Hendry (Eds.), Oxford: Blackwell Publishers
    • McCracken MW, West KD (2002) Inference about predictive ability. In: Clements MP, Hendry DF (eds) A companion to economic forecasting. Blackwell Publishers, Oxford, pp 299-321.
    • (2002) A Companion to Economic Forecasting , pp. 299-321
    • McCracken, M.W.1    West, K.D.2
  • 14
    • 29144504385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR fan charts of inflation
    • Mitchell J, Hall SG (2005) Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR fan charts of inflation. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 67(S1): 995-1033.
    • (2005) Oxford Bull Econ Stat , vol.67 , Issue.S1 , pp. 995-1033
    • Mitchell, J.1    Hall, S.G.2
  • 15
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix
    • Newey WK, West KD (1987) A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55(3): 703-708.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , Issue.3 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 16
    • 0031541876 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear aspects of goods-market arbitrage and adjustment: Hecksher's commodity points revisited
    • Obstfeld M, Taylor AM (1997) Nonlinear aspects of goods-market arbitrage and adjustment: Hecksher's commodity points revisited. J Japanese Int Econ 11(4): 441-479.
    • (1997) J Japanese Int Econ , vol.11 , Issue.4 , pp. 441-479
    • Obstfeld, M.1    Taylor, A.M.2
  • 17
    • 84983767302 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning about models and their fit to data
    • Pagan AR (2002) Learning about models and their fit to data. Int Econ J 16(2): 1-18.
    • (2002) Int Econ J , vol.16 , Issue.2 , pp. 1-18
    • Pagan, A.R.1
  • 19
    • 0002983575 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • If nonlinear models cannot forecast, what use are they
    • Ramsey JB (1996) If nonlinear models cannot forecast, what use are they. Studies Nonlin Dynamic Econ 1(2): 65-86.
    • (1996) Studies Nonlin Dynamic Econ , vol.1 , Issue.2 , pp. 65-86
    • Ramsey, J.B.1
  • 20
    • 33645752080 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior
    • Rapach DE, Wohar ME (2006) The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of realexchange rate behavior. Int J Forecast 22(2): 341-361.
    • (2006) Int J Forecast , vol.22 , Issue.2 , pp. 341-361
    • Rapach, D.E.1    Wohar, M.E.2
  • 23
    • 0003045718 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear mean-reversion in real exchange rates: Towards a solution to the purchasing power parity puzzles
    • Taylor MP, Peel DA, Sarno L (2001) Nonlinear mean-reversion in real exchange rates: Towards a solution to the purchasing power parity puzzles. Int Econ Rev 42(4): 1015-1042.
    • (2001) Int Econ Rev , vol.42 , Issue.4 , pp. 1015-1042
    • Taylor, M.P.1    Peel, D.A.2    Sarno, L.3
  • 24
    • 84923053681 scopus 로고
    • Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models
    • Teräsvirta T (1994) Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. J Am Stat Assoc 89(425): 208-218.
    • (1994) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.89 , Issue.425 , pp. 208-218
    • Teräsvirta, T.1
  • 25
    • 67649306575 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models
    • In: Elliott G, Granger C, Timmermann A (eds), Elsevier, Amsterdam
    • Teräsvirta T (2006) Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models. In: Elliott G, Granger C, Timmermann A (eds) Handbook of economic forecasting, vol 1. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 413-457.
    • (2006) Handbook of economic forecasting , vol.1 , pp. 413-457
    • Teräsvirta, T.1
  • 26
    • 26944442012 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Smooth transition autoregressions, neural networks, and linear models in forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination
    • Teräsvirta T, van Dijk D, Medeiros MC (2005) Smooth transition autoregressions, neural networks, and linear models in forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination. Int J Forecast 21(4): 755-774.
    • (2005) Int J Forecast , vol.21 , Issue.4 , pp. 755-774
    • Teräsvirta, T.1    van Dijk, D.2    Medeiros, M.C.3
  • 27
    • 0348198164 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy
    • van Dijk D, Franses PH (2003) Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 18(S1): 727-744.
    • (2003) Oxford Bull Econ Stat , vol.18 , Issue.S1 , pp. 727-744
    • van Dijk, D.1    Franses, P.H.2
  • 28
    • 0003123930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art
    • Zhang G, Patuwo BE, Hu MY (1998) Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art. Int J Forecast 14(1): 35-62.
    • (1998) Int J Forecast , vol.14 , Issue.1 , pp. 35-62
    • Zhang, G.1    Patuwo, B.E.2    Hu, M.Y.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.