The system dynamics of U.S. automobile fuel economy

Sustainability

Volumn 4, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 1013-1042

  BenDor, Todd K ^a  

^a University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill   (United States)

Author keywords

CAFE standards; Climate change; Energy security; Environmental policy; Fuel economy; Mobile source; System dynamics modeling; Transportation; Transportation policy

Indexed keywords

EID: 84864292694     PISSN: 20711050     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/su4051013     Document Type: Article

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36. Although I do not directly model these dynamics, they will be important factors to consider in future work on this topic
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57. Although recent (2012) gas prices are much higher, it is important to note that between 1970 and 2010, the average (inflation adjusted) price of gasoline was $1.82 (2005$). Therefore, an increase of gas prices to $2.71 (15 cents over the 2010 average price of $2.56) is actually quite expensive compared to historical values.
58. In the gas tax increase and combination policy scenarios, average VMT continues to climb despite the higher price of gasoline. Testing on this variable reveals sensitivity issues; VMT increases most likely would not occur in an environment where gas prices had just doubled. The formulation for VMT in this model includes a ramp function that works independently of gasoline price and mimics an increasing population of vehicle owners. If gasoline prices doubled, there might also be more reluctance for future vehicle owners to actually purchase a car. That being said, in this situation, intuition suggests that overall VMT should decline. In addition to this, if gasoline prices doubled, current vehicle owners would most likely limit their leisure drives and other unnecessary trips. While this feedback is indeed formulated in this model, the VMT equations are not sensitive enough to result in an adequate reduction in VMT for larger gas tax scenarios.
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