메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 113, Issue 3-4, 2012, Pages 867-882

Quantitative risk assessment for future meteorological disasters: Reduced livestock mortality in Mongolia

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE EVENT; DOMINANT FACTOR; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; ECOSYSTEM MODEL; HIGH TEMPERATURE; IN-DEGREE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; LEAF AREA INDEX; MONGOLIA; PRECIPITABLE WATER; QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT; QUANTITATIVE STUDY; SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; SUMMER RAINFALL; TREE-BASED MODEL;

EID: 84864287971     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0365-5     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (25)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 78751472572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for deriving variable importance of parameters influencing average flexibility of CaMK kinase family
    • Banerjee AK, Arora N, Murty USN (2008) Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for deriving variable importance of parameters influencing average flexibility of CaMK kinase family. Electr J Biol 4(1): 27-33.
    • (2008) Electr J Biol , vol.4 , Issue.1 , pp. 27-33
    • Banerjee, A.K.1    Arora, N.2    Murty, U.S.N.3
  • 3
    • 4143068001 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Livestock responses to drought and severe winter weather in the Gobi Three Beauty National Park, Mongolia
    • Begzsuren S, Ellis JE, Ojima DS, Coughenour MB, Chuluun T (2004) Livestock responses to drought and severe winter weather in the Gobi Three Beauty National Park, Mongolia. J Arid Environ 59: 786-796.
    • (2004) J Arid Environ , vol.59 , pp. 786-796
    • Begzsuren, S.1    Ellis, J.E.2    Ojima, D.S.3    Coughenour, M.B.4    Chuluun, T.5
  • 4
    • 84865640820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bat-Oyun Ts Past 40 years changes of pasture plant development and production
    • (in Mongolian with English abstract)
    • Bolortsetseg B, Erdenetsetseg B, Bat-Oyun Ts (2002) Past 40 years changes of pasture plant development and production. Pap Meteorol Hydrol 24: 108-114 (in Mongolian with English abstract).
    • (2002) Pap Meteorol Hydrol , vol.24 , pp. 108-114
    • Bolortsetseg, B.1    Erdenetsetseg, B.2
  • 6
    • 33750957935 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model
    • Burke EJ, Brown SJ, Christidis N (2006) Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model. J Hydrometeorol 7: 1113-1125.
    • (2006) J Hydrometeorol , vol.7 , pp. 1113-1125
    • Burke, E.J.1    Brown, S.J.2    Christidis, N.3
  • 8
    • 41249092227 scopus 로고
    • Tree-based models
    • In: Chambers JM, Hastie TJ (eds), S Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole Advanced Books & Software, Pacific Grove, CA
    • Clark LA, Pregibon D (1992) Tree-based models. In: Chambers JM, Hastie TJ (eds) Statistical models. S Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole Advanced Books & Software, Pacific Grove, CA, pp 377-419.
    • (1992) Statistical models , pp. 377-419
    • Clark, L.A.1    Pregibon, D.2
  • 10
    • 35848952632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry
    • In: Solomon S et al (eds), Contribution of WGI to IPCC AR4
    • Denman K et al (2007) Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of WGI to IPCC AR4, pp 501-587.
    • (2007) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis , pp. 501-587
    • Denman, K.1
  • 11
    • 38049097144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Food, fibre and forest products
    • In: Parry ML et al (eds), Contribution of WGII to IPCC AR4
    • Easterling WE et al (2007) Food, fibre and forest products. In: Parry ML et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of WGII to IPCC AR4, pp 273-313.
    • (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , pp. 273-313
    • Easterling, W.E.1
  • 12
    • 27544504396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate
    • doi:10.1029/2005GL023272
    • Emori S, Brown SJ (2005) Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32: L17706. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL023272.
    • (2005) Geophys Res Lett , vol.32
    • Emori, S.1    Brown, S.J.2
  • 13
    • 0003748231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report 03/277 Available at, Accessed 2 June 2011
    • International Monetary Fund (2003) Mongolia: poverty reduction strategy paper. IMF Country Report 03/277 Available at: http://www. imf. org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2003/cr03277. pdf. Accessed 2 June 2011.
    • (2003) Mongolia: Poverty reduction strategy paper
  • 14
    • 33845606705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual change in summertime precipitation over northeast Asia
    • 10.1029/2006GL027119
    • Iwao K, Takahashi M (2006) Interannual change in summertime precipitation over northeast Asia. Geophys Res Lett 33: L16703. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL027119.
    • (2006) Geophys Res Lett , vol.33 , pp. 16703
    • Iwao, K.1    Takahashi, M.2
  • 16
    • 84864287867 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technical Papers, Statistics Group, Technology School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute. Available at, Accessed 2 June 2011
    • Kim SB, Huo X, Tsui K-L (2005) Performance of cross validation in tree-based models. Technical Papers, Statistics Group, Technology School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute. Available at: http://www2. isye. gatech. edu/statistics/papers/05-15. pdf. Accessed 2 June 2011.
    • (2005) Performance of cross validation in tree-based models
    • Kim, S.B.1    Huo, X.2    Tsui, K.-L.3
  • 17
    • 17444398643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pale rock sparrow Carpospiza brachydactyla in the Mount Lebanon range: modelling breeding habitat
    • Knight CG, Beale CM (2005) Pale rock sparrow Carpospiza brachydactyla in the Mount Lebanon range: modelling breeding habitat. Ibis 147: 324-333.
    • (2005) Ibis , vol.147 , pp. 324-333
    • Knight, C.G.1    Beale, C.M.2
  • 18
    • 84864287019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Actual damage to Mongolian animal husbandry due to 2000-2002 dzud disaster
    • (in Japanese)
    • Komiyama H (2005) Actual damage to Mongolian animal husbandry due to 2000-2002 dzud disaster. Bull Jpn Assoc Mongolian Stud 35: 73-85 (in Japanese).
    • (2005) Bull Jpn Assoc Mongolian Stud , vol.35 , pp. 73-85
    • Komiyama, H.1
  • 19
    • 85164392958 scopus 로고
    • A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection
    • Kohavi R (1995) A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. Proc 14 Int Jt Conf Artif Intell 2(12): 1137-1143.
    • (1995) Proc 14 Int Jt Conf Artif Intell , vol.2 , Issue.12 , pp. 1137-1143
    • Kohavi, R.1
  • 21
    • 84864285511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Natural disasters in Mongolia-drought and dzud monitoring system at the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
    • National Museum of Ethnology, Osaka (in Japanese)
    • Morinaga Y, Shinoda M (2005) Natural disasters in Mongolia-drought and dzud monitoring system at the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. In: Environment handbook. National Museum of Ethnology, Osaka (in Japanese).
    • (2005) Environment handbook
    • Morinaga, Y.1    Shinoda, M.2
  • 22
    • 0344552326 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Winter snow anomaly and atmospheric circulation in Mongolia
    • Morinaga Y, Tian S-F, Shinoda M (2003) Winter snow anomaly and atmospheric circulation in Mongolia. Int J Climatol 23(13): 1627-1636.
    • (2003) Int J Climatol , vol.23 , Issue.13 , pp. 1627-1636
    • Morinaga, Y.1    Tian, S.-F.2    Shinoda, M.3
  • 23
    • 84864277350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mongolia in a market system
    • National Statistics Office of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar
    • National Statistics Office of Mongolia (2004) Mongolia in a market system. Statistical Yearbook. Ulaanbaatar.
    • (2004) Statistical Yearbook
  • 24
    • 36549059469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Statistics Office of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar
    • National Statistics Office of Mongolia (2006) Statistical Yearbook 2005. Ulaanbaatar.
    • (2006) Statistical Yearbook 2005
  • 25
    • 4143073548 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Some aspects of assessment of the dzud phenomena
    • (in Mongolian with English abstract)
    • Natsuagdorj L, Dulamsuren J (2001) Some aspects of assessment of the dzud phenomena. Pap Meteorol Hydrol 23: 3-18 (in Mongolian with English abstract).
    • (2001) Pap Meteorol Hydrol , vol.23 , pp. 3-18
    • Natsuagdorj, L.1    Dulamsuren, J.2
  • 26
    • 52549119628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of thinning and site productivity on culmination of stand growth: results from long-term monitoring experiments in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) forests in northeastern Japan
    • Nishizono T, Tanaka K, Hosoda K, Awaya Y, Oishi Y (2008) Effects of thinning and site productivity on culmination of stand growth: results from long-term monitoring experiments in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) forests in northeastern Japan. J For Res 13: 264-274.
    • (2008) J For Res , vol.13 , pp. 264-274
    • Nishizono, T.1    Tanaka, K.2    Hosoda, K.3    Awaya, Y.4    Oishi, Y.5
  • 28
    • 79951480123 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Development Core Team, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria,] Accessed 2 June 2011
    • R Development Core Team (2010) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www. R-project. org. Accessed 2 June 2011.
    • (2010) R: A language and environment for statistical computing
  • 29
    • 0038265005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precipitation from vertical motion: a statistical diagnostic scheme
    • Rose BEJ and Lin CA (2003) Precipitation from vertical motion: a statistical diagnostic scheme. Int J Climatol 23: 903-919.
    • (2003) Int J Climatol , vol.23 , pp. 903-919
    • Rose, B.E.J.1    Lin, C.A.2
  • 30
    • 28044448520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing a combined drought/dzud early warning system in Mongolia
    • (in Japanese with English summary)
    • Shinoda M, Morinaga Y (2005) Developing a combined drought/dzud early warning system in Mongolia. Geogr Rev Jpn 78(13): 928-950 (in Japanese with English summary).
    • (2005) Geogr Rev Jpn , vol.78 , Issue.13 , pp. 928-950
    • Shinoda, M.1    Morinaga, Y.2
  • 31
    • 0037823245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • West-east contrast of phenology and climate in northern Asia revealed using a remotely sensed vegetation index
    • Suzuki R, Nomaki T, Yasunari T (2003) West-east contrast of phenology and climate in northern Asia revealed using a remotely sensed vegetation index. Int J Biometeorol 47(3): 126-138.
    • (2003) Int J Biometeorol , vol.47 , Issue.3 , pp. 126-138
    • Suzuki, R.1    Nomaki, T.2    Yasunari, T.3
  • 32
    • 52949145932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing Mongolian snow disaster risk using livestock and satellite data
    • Tachiiri K, Shinoda M, Klinkenberg B, Morinaga Y (2008) Assessing Mongolian snow disaster risk using livestock and satellite data. J Arid Environ 72(12): 2251-2263.
    • (2008) J Arid Environ , vol.72 , Issue.12 , pp. 2251-2263
    • Tachiiri, K.1    Shinoda, M.2    Klinkenberg, B.3    Morinaga, Y.4
  • 33
    • 0027707970 scopus 로고
    • The changing significance of risk in the Mongolian pastoral economy
    • Templer G, Swift J, Payne P (1993) The changing significance of risk in the Mongolian pastoral economy. Nomad Peoples 33: 105-122.
    • (1993) Nomad Peoples , vol.33 , pp. 105-122
    • Templer, G.1    Swift, J.2    Payne, P.3
  • 34
    • 39749171363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change
    • In: Solomon S et al (eds), Contribution of WGI to IPCC AR4
    • Trenberth KE et al (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of WGI to IPCC AR4, pp 235-336.
    • (2007) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis , pp. 235-336
    • Trenberth, K.E.1
  • 35
    • 28044449430 scopus 로고
    • Results of zoo-meteorological observation in Mongolia
    • (in Russian)
    • Tuvaansuren G (1986) Results of zoo-meteorological observation in Mongolia. Pap Meteorol Hydrol 11: 132-145 (in Russian).
    • (1986) Pap Meteorol Hydrol , vol.11 , pp. 132-145
    • Tuvaansuren, G.1
  • 37
    • 64549120499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle
    • 10.1029/2007JG000570
    • Yoshikawa C, Kawamiya M, Kato T, Yamanaka Y, Matsuno T (2008) Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 113: G03002. doi: 10. 1029/2007JG000570.
    • (2008) J Geophys Res Biogeosci , vol.113 , pp. 3002
    • Yoshikawa, C.1    Kawamiya, M.2    Kato, T.3    Yamanaka, Y.4    Matsuno, T.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.