Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 16, Issue 7, 2012, Pages 2143-2157

  Sienz, F ^a   Bothe, O ^a   Fraedrich, K ^b  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION; FUTURE CLIMATE; GAMMA DISTRIBUTION; INFORMATION ENTROPY; SIMULATED DATA; WEIBULL;

CLIMATE CHANGE; HIGHER ORDER STATISTICS;

WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION;

AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA SET; ENTROPY; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; EXTREME EVENT; MAXIMUM ENTROPY ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); WEIBULL THEORY;

EID: 84864271009     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Akaike, H.: A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716-723, 1974.
2. Alexander, L. V. and Jones, P. D.: Updated precipitation series for the U.K. and discussion of recent extremes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 1, 142-150, 2001.
3. Bordi, I. and Sutera, A.: Fifty years of precipitation: Some spatially remote teleconnections, Water Resour. Manage., 15, 247-280, 2001. (Pubitemid 34078021)
4. Bordi, I., Fraedrich, K., and Sutera, A.: Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: An update, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1519-1530, doi:10.5194/hess-13-1519-2009, 2009.
5. Bothe, O., Fraedrich, K., and Zhu, X.: The large-scale circulations and summer drought and wetness on the Tibetan plateau, Int. J. of Climatol., 30, 844-855, 2010.
6. Burke, E. J. and Brown, S. J.: Evaluating uncertainties in the projection of future drought, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 292-299, 2008.
7. Burnham, K. P. and Anderson, D. R.: Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretical Approach, New York: Springer-Verlag, 2nd Edn., 2002.
8. Davison, A. C. and Hinkley, D. V.: Bootstrap methods and their application, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003.
9. Edwards, D. C. and McKee, T. B.: Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales, Atmospheric Science Paper 634, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 1997.
10. Gibbs,W. and Maher, J.: Rainfall deciles as drought indicators, Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin 48, Melbourne, Australia, 1967.
11. Groisman, P. Y., Karl, T. R., Easterling, D. R., Knight, R. W., Jamason, P. F., Hennessy, K. J., Suppiah, R., Page, C. M., Wibig, J., Fortuniak, K., Razuvaev, V. N., Douglas, A., Forland, E., and Zhai, P.: Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climate change, Climate Change, 42, 243-283, 1999. (Pubitemid 29400818)
12. Guttman, N. B.: Accepting the standardized precipitation index, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 35, 311-322, 1999.
13. Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wall, N., and Widhalm, M.: The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: Universal meteorological drought index recommended, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 485-488, 2011.
14. Heinrich, G. and Gobiet, A.: The future of dry and wet spells in Europe: A comprehensive study based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models, Int. J. Climatol., online first: doi:10.1002/joc.2421, 2011.
15. Hosking, J. R. M.: The four-parameter kappa distribution, IBM J. Res. Dev., 38, 251-258, 1994.
16. Kysely, J. and Picek, J.: Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones, Adv. Geosci., 12, 43-50, 2007, http://www.adv-geosci. net/12/43/2007/. (Pubitemid 47158263)
17. Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Saunders, M. A.: A drought climatology for Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1571-1592, 2002. (Pubitemid 35381496)
18. Lopez-Moreno, J. I. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Positive and negative phases of the Wintertime North-Atlantic Oscillation and drought ocurrences over Europe: A multitemporal-scale approch, J. Climate, 21, 1220-1242, 2008.
19. Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M., and R̈oske, F.: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates, Ocean Model., 5, 91-127, 2003.
20. McKee, T. B., Doeskin, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in: 8th Conf. on Applied Climatology, 179-184, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, Canada, 1993.
21. Mielke, P. W. and Johnson, E. S.: Some generalized Beta distributions of the second kind having desirable application features in hydrology and meteorology, Water Resour. Res., 10, 223-226, 1974.
22. Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, 2005. (Pubitemid 40815726)
23. Mo, K. C. and Schemm, J. E.: Relationship between ENSO and drought over the southeastern United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L15701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034656, 2008.
24. Palmer, W. C.: Meteorological drought, Research paper No. 45, US Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 1965.
25. Reeve, D. E.: Estimation of extreme indian monsoon rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 105-112, 1996.
26. Rodriguez, R. N.: A guide to the Burr type XII distribution, Biometrika, 64, 129-134, 1977. (Pubitemid 8069563)
27. Roeckner, E., B̈auml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmopheric general circulation model ECHAM5, Part 1: Model description, Report 349, Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 127 pp., 2003.
28. Rooy, M. v.: A rainfall anomaly index, independent of time and space, Notos, 14, 43-48, 1965.
29. Santos, J. F., Pulido-Calvo, I., and Portela, M. M.: Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal, Water Resour. Res., 46, W03503, doi:10.1029/2009WR008071, 2010.
30. Sienz, F., Bordi, I., Fraedrich, K., and Schneidereit, A.: Extreme dry and wet events in Iceland: Observations, simulations and scenarios, Meteorol. Z., 16, 9-16, 2007. (Pubitemid 46443909)
31. Tadikamalla, P. R.: A Look at the Burr and Related Distributions, Int. Stat. Rev., 48, 337-344, 1980.
32. Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: An analysis of the Iberian peninsula,Water Resour. Manag., 20, 37-60, 2006. (Pubitemid 43203207)
33. Wu, H., Hayes, M. J., Wilhite, D. A., and Svoboda, M. D.: The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 505-520, 2005. (Pubitemid 40518195)
34. Wu, H., Svoboda, M. D., Hayes, M. J., Wilhite, D. A., and Wen, F.: Appropriate application of the Standardized Precipitation Index in arid locations and dry seasons, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 65-79, 2007. (Pubitemid 46157863)
35. Zhu, X., Bothe, O., and Fraedrich, K.: Summer atmospheric bridging between Europe and East Asia: Influences on drought and wetness on the Tibetan Plateau, Quaternary Int., 236, 151-157, 2011.