메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 30, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 432-453

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

Author keywords

Estimation window; Forecast evaluation; Predictive ability testing

Indexed keywords


EID: 84864211158     PISSN: 07350015     EISSN: 15372707     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2012.693850     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (296)

References (43)
  • 1
    • 0001162133 scopus 로고
    • Tests of Parameter Instability and Structural Change With Unknown Change Point
    • [435,451]
    • Andrews, D.W. K. (1993), "Tests of Parameter Instability and Structural Change With Unknown Change Point, " Econometrica, 61, 821-856. [435,451]
    • (1993) Econometrica , vol.61 , pp. 821-856
    • Andrews, D.W.K.1
  • 2
    • 0035641322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An Out-of-Sample Test for Granger Causality
    • [436]
    • Chao, J. C., Corradi, V., and Swanson, N. R. (2001), "An Out-of-Sample Test for Granger Causality, " Macroeconomic Dynamics, 5, 598-620. [436]
    • (2001) Macroeconomic Dynamics , vol.5 , pp. 598-620
    • Chao, J.C.1    Corradi, V.2    Swanson, N.R.3
  • 3
    • 28244433528 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
    • [432]
    • Cheung, Y., Chinn, M. D., and Pascual, A. G. (2005), "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?, " Journal of International Money and Finance, 24, 1150-1175. [432]
    • (2005) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.24 , pp. 1150-1175
    • Cheung, Y.1    Chinn, M.D.2    Pascual, A.G.3
  • 4
    • 0000573777 scopus 로고
    • Some Linear and Nonlinear Thoughts on Exchange Rates
    • [432]
    • Chinn, M. (1991), "Some Linear and Nonlinear Thoughts on Exchange Rates, " Journal of International Money and Finance, 10, 214-230. [432]
    • (1991) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.10 , pp. 214-230
    • Chinn, M.1
  • 5
    • 84962992067 scopus 로고
    • Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macroeconomic Models
    • [436]
    • Chong, Y. Y., and Hendry, D. F. (1986), "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macroeconomic Models, " Review of Economic Studies, 53, 671-690. [436]
    • (1986) Review of Economic Studies , vol.53 , pp. 671-690
    • Chong, Y.Y.1    Hendry, D.F.2
  • 7
    • 0003047270 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models
    • [432,433,435,436,441,444,447,448,450,451]
    • Clark, T. E., and McCracken, M. W. (2001), "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models, " Journal of Econometrics, 105 (1), 85-110. [432,433,435,436,441,444,447,448,450,451]
    • (2001) Journal of Econometrics , vol.105 , Issue.1 , pp. 85-110
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 8
    • 9544235204 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Power of Tests of Predictive Ability in the Presence of Structural Breaks
    • [442]
    • Clark, T. E., and McCracken, M. W. (2005a), "The Power of Tests of Predictive Ability in the Presence of Structural Breaks, " Journal of Econometrics, 124, 1-31. [442]
    • (2005) Journal of Econometrics , vol.124 , pp. 1-31
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 9
    • 29244443447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts
    • [444]
    • Clark, T. E., and McCracken, M. W. (2005b), "Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts, " Econometric Reviews, 24 (3), 369-404. [444]
    • (2005) Econometric Reviews , vol.24 , Issue.3 , pp. 369-404
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 10
    • 65349183513 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts
    • [432]
    • Clark, T. E., and McCracken, M. W. (2009), "Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts, " International Economic Review, 50 (2), 363-395. [432]
    • (2009) International Economic Review , vol.50 , Issue.2 , pp. 363-395
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 11
    • 84881591973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advances in Forecast Evaluation
    • in eds. G. Elliott and A. Timmermann, Elsevier. [444]
    • Clark, T. E., and McCracken, M. W. (2011a), "Advances in Forecast Evaluation, " in Handbook of Economic Forecasting (Vol. 2), eds. G. Elliott and A. Timmermann, Elsevier. [444]
    • (2011) Handbook of Economic Forecasting , vol.2
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 12
    • 84864250602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisWorking Paper No. 2011-024, St. Louis, MO: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [435]
    • Clark, T. E., and McCracken, M. W. (2011b), "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy for Overlapping Models, " Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisWorking Paper No. 2011-024, St. Louis, MO: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [435]
    • (2011) Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy for Overlapping Models
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 13
    • 33748618701 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis
    • [441]
    • Clark, T. E., and West, K. D. (2006), "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis, " Journal of Econometrics, 135, 155-186. [441]
    • (2006) Journal of Econometrics , vol.135 , pp. 155-186
    • Clark, T.E.1    West, K.D.2
  • 14
    • 33947513916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models
    • [432,441,451]
    • Clark, T. E., and West, K. D. (2007), "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models, " Journal of Econometrics, 138, 291-311. [432,441,451]
    • (2007) Journal of Econometrics , vol.138 , pp. 291-311
    • Clark, T.E.1    West, K.D.2
  • 15
    • 34248625602 scopus 로고
    • On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors
    • [436]
    • Clements, M. P., and Hendry, D. F. (1993), "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors, " Journal of Forecasting, 12, 617-637. [436]
    • (1993) Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 617-637
    • Clements, M.P.1    Hendry, D.F.2
  • 17
    • 70350347433 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast Evaluation and Combination
    • in eds. G. S. Maddalaand C. R. Rao, Amsterdam: North-Holland, [436]
    • Diebold, F. X., and Lopez, J. (1996), "Forecast Evaluation and Combination, " in Handbook of Statistics, eds. G. S. Maddalaand C. R. Rao, Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp. 241-268. [436]
    • (1996) Handbook of Statistics , pp. 241-268
    • Diebold, F.X.1    Lopez, J.2
  • 19
    • 46749125757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think
    • in eds. D. Acemoglu, K. S., Rogoff, andM. Woodford, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Available at [433,446,447]
    • Engel, C., Mark, N., andWest, K. D. (2007), "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think, " in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 (Vol. 22), eds. D. Acemoglu, K. S., Rogoff, andM. Woodford, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Available at http://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/4075.html [433,446,447]
    • (2007) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 , vol.22
    • Engel, C.1    Mark, N.2    West, K.D.3
  • 20
    • 77953507368 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments
    • [432,446]
    • Giacomini, R., and Rossi, B. (2010), "Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments, " Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (4), 595-620. [432,446]
    • (2010) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.25 , Issue.4 , pp. 595-620
    • Giacomini, R.1    Rossi, B.2
  • 21
    • 33750536645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability
    • [442]
    • Giacomini, R., and White, H. (2006), "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability, " Econometrica, 74, 1545-1578. [442]
    • (2006) Econometrica , vol.74 , pp. 1545-1578
    • Giacomini, R.1    White, H.2
  • 22
    • 35348926208 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • International Financial Adjustment
    • [432]
    • Gourinchas, P. O., and Rey, H. (2007), "International Financial Adjustment, " Journal of Political Economy, 115 (4), 665-703. [432]
    • (2007) Journal of Political Economy , vol.115 , Issue.4 , pp. 665-703
    • Gourinchas, P.O.1    Rey, H.2
  • 24
    • 84971943451 scopus 로고
    • Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes
    • [434,451]
    • Hansen, B. E. (1992), "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes, " Econometric Theory, 8, 489-500. [434,451]
    • (1992) Econometric Theory , vol.8 , pp. 489-500
    • Hansen, B.E.1
  • 28
    • 0001909961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust Out-of-Sample Inference
    • [432,433,435,435,444,450,452]
    • McCracken, M. W. (2000), "Robust Out-of-Sample Inference, " Journal of Econometrics, 99, 195-223. [432,433,435,435,444,450,452]
    • (2000) Journal of Econometrics , vol.99 , pp. 195-223
    • McCracken, M.W.1
  • 29
    • 33846907054 scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies. Do They FitOut of Sample?
    • [432,446,447]
    • Meese, R., and Rogoff, K. S. (1983a), "Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies. Do They FitOut of Sample?, " Journal of International Economics, 14, 3-24. [432,446,447]
    • (1983) Journal of International Economics , vol.14 , pp. 3-24
    • Meese, R.1    Rogoff, K.S.2
  • 30
    • 0001851162 scopus 로고
    • The Out of Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models
    • in ed. J. Frankel, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for NBER. [446,447]
    • Meese, R., and Rogoff, K. S. (1983b), "The Out of Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models, " in Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, ed. J. Frankel, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for NBER. [446,447]
    • (1983) Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics
    • Meese, R.1    Rogoff, K.S.2
  • 31
    • 0002254780 scopus 로고
    • The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts
    • in ed. J. Mincer, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, [432,435,436,439,452]
    • Mincer, J., and Zarnowitz, V. (1969), "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts, " in Economic Forecasts and Expectations, ed. J. Mincer, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 81-111. [432,435,436,439,452]
    • (1969) Economic Forecasts and Expectations , pp. 81-111
    • Mincer, J.1    Zarnowitz, V.2
  • 32
    • 61349143051 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability With Taylor Rule Fundamentals
    • [432,433,446,447,450]
    • Molodtsova, T., and Papell, D. H. (2009), "Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability With Taylor Rule Fundamentals, " Journal of International Economics, 77 (2), 167-180. [432,433,446,447,450]
    • (2009) Journal of International Economics , vol.77 , Issue.2 , pp. 167-180
    • Molodtsova, T.1    Papell, D.H.2
  • 33
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix
    • [435]
    • Newey, W., and West, K. D. (1987), "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix, " Econometrica, 55, 703-708. [435]
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.1    West, K.D.2
  • 34
    • 34547725287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Properties of Optimal Forecasts Under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity
    • [441]
    • Patton, A. J., and Timmermann, A. (2007), "Properties of Optimal Forecasts Under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity, " Journal of Econometrics, 140, 884-918. [441]
    • (2007) Journal of Econometrics , vol.140 , pp. 884-918
    • Patton, A.J.1    Timmermann, A.2
  • 35
    • 33749045516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
    • [432]
    • Pesaran, M. H., Pettenuzzo, D., and Timmermann, A. (2006), "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks, " Review of Economic Studies, 73, 1057-1084. [432]
    • (2006) Review of Economic Studies , vol.73 , pp. 1057-1084
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Pettenuzzo, D.2    Timmermann, A.3
  • 36
    • 15744385032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-Time Econometrics
    • [433]
    • Pesaran, M. H., and Timmermann, A. (2005), "Real-Time Econometrics, " Econometric Theory, 21 (1), 212-231. [433]
    • (2005) Econometric Theory , vol.21 , Issue.1 , pp. 212-231
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Timmermann, A.2
  • 37
    • 33846487369 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selection of Estimation Window in the Presence of Breaks
    • [432,442]
    • Pesaran, M. H., and Timmermann, A. (2007), "Selection of Estimation Window in the Presence of Breaks, " Journal of Econometrics, 137 (1), 134-161. [432,442]
    • (2007) Journal of Econometrics , vol.137 , Issue.1 , pp. 134-161
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Timmermann, A.2
  • 38
    • 0042342715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear Prediction of Exchange Rates With Monetary Fundamentals
    • [432]
    • Qi, M., and Wu, Y. (2003), "Nonlinear Prediction of Exchange Rates With Monetary Fundamentals, " Journal of Empirical Finance, 10, 623-640. [432]
    • (2003) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.10 , pp. 623-640
    • Qi, M.1    Wu, Y.2
  • 40
    • 33645748074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are Exchange Rates Really RandomWalks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability
    • [433,446]
    • Rossi, B. (2006), "Are Exchange Rates Really RandomWalks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability, " Macroeconomic Dynamics, 10 (1), 20-38. [433,446]
    • (2006) Macroeconomic Dynamics , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 20-38
    • Rossi, B.1
  • 41
    • 0030353235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability
    • [432,433,434,435,444,450]
    • West, K. D. (1996), "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability, " Econometrica, 64, 1067-1084. [432,433,434,435,444,450]
    • (1996) Econometrica , vol.64 , pp. 1067-1084
    • West, K.D.1
  • 42
    • 0346362776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability
    • [434,436,437,443,444,450,451,452]
    • West, K. D., and McCracken, M. W. (1998), "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability, " International Economic Review, 39, 817-840. [434,436,437,443,444,450,451,452]
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 817-840
    • West, K.D.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 43
    • 84974313169 scopus 로고
    • Some Invariance Principles and Central Limit Theorems for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes
    • [450,451]
    • Wooldridge, J.M., andWhite, H. (1988), "Some Invariance Principles and Central Limit Theorems for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes, " Econometric Theory, 4, 210-230. [450,451]
    • (1988) Econometric Theory , vol.4 , pp. 210-230
    • Wooldridge, J.M.1    White, H.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.