Predicting coastal erosion trends using non-stationary statistics and process-based models

Coastal Engineering

Volumn 70, Issue , 2012, Pages 40-49

  Corbella, Stefano ^a,b   Stretch, Derek D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU NATAL   (South Africa)

^b eThekwini Municipality   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Climate trends; Coastal erosion; Copulas; Multivariate statistics; Process based models

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE TRENDS; COASTAL EROSION; COPULAS; MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS; PROCESS-BASED MODELS;

BEACHES; COASTAL ZONES; EROSION; RISK PERCEPTION; STORMS; WATER LEVELS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

BEACH PROFILE; CLIMATE VARIATION; COASTAL EROSION; COASTAL ZONE; EROSION RATE; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL MODEL; SEASONAL VARIATION; STORM SURGE; WATER LEVEL; WAVE HEIGHT;

SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 84864061900     PISSN: 03783839     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.06.004     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Bacon S., Carter D.J.T. Wave climate changes in the north Atlantic and North Sea. International Journal of Climatology 1991, 11:545-558.
2. Boccotti P. Wave mechanics for ocean engineering. Elsevier Oceanography Series 2000, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam.
3. Callaghan D.P., Nielsen P., Short A., Ranasinghe R. Statistical simulation of wave climate and extreme beach erosion. Coastal Engineering 2008, 55:375-390.
4. Casella G., Berger R.L. Statistical Inference 1990, Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole, Pacific Grove, CA.
5. Chini N., Stansby P., Leake J., Wolf J., Roberts-Jones J., Lowe J. The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: a case study for East Anglia (UK). Coastal Engineering 2010, 57:973-984.
6. Coles S.G., Tawn J.A. Statistics of coastal flood prevention. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A 1990, 332:457-476.
7. Coles S.G., Tawn J.A. Modelling extreme multivariate events. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B 1991, 53:377-392.
8. Coles S.G., Tawn J.A. Statistical methods for multivariate extremes: an application to structural design. Applied Statistics 1994, 43:1-48.
9. Corbella, S., Stretch, D.D., in press. The wave climate on the east coast of South Africa. J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. 54 (2).
10. Corbella, S., Stretch, D.D., 2011a. Decadal trends in beach morphology on the east coast of southern Africa and likely causative factors. Submitted to Nat. Haz. Earth Sys. Sci. 2011.
11. Corbella, S., Stretch, D.D., 2011b. Simulating a multivariate sea storm using Archimedean Copulas. Submitted to Coastal Engineering 2011.
12. Corbella S., Stretch D.D. Shoreline recovery from storms on the east coast of Southern Africa. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 2012, 12:11-22.
13. De Michele C., Salvadori G., Passoni G., Vezzoli R. A multivariate model of sea storms using copulas. Coastal Engineering 2007, 54:734-751.
14. Dean R.G., Dalrymple R.A. Water wave mechanics for engineers and scientists. Advanced Series on Ocean Engineering 1991, vol. 2:353. World Scientific, Singapore.
15. Dodet G., Bertin X., Taborda R. Wave climate variability in the North-East Atlantic Ocean over the last six decades. Ocean Modelling 2010, 31:120-131.
16. Goda Y. Random Seas and Design of Maritime Structures 2008, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd, Singapore. 2nd Edition.
17. Guedes Soares C., Scotto M.G. Application of the r largest-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave height. Coastal Engineering 2004, 51:387-394.
18. Hanson H., Larson M., Kraus N.C., Gravens M.B. Shoreline response to detached breakwaters and tidal current: comparison of numerical and physical models. Proceeding of the 30th International Conference of Coastal Engineering 2006.
19. Hartanto I.M., Beevers L., Popescu I., Wright N.G. Application of a coastal modelling code in fluvial environments. Environmental Modelling & Software 2011, 26(12):1685-1695.
20. Katz R.W., Parlange M.B., Naveau P. Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Advances in Water Resources 2002, 25:1287-1304.
21. Kriebel D.L., Dean R.G. Convolution method for time-dependent beach-profile response. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 1993, 119(2):204-226.
22. Larson M., Kraus N.C., Byrnes M.R. SBEACH: Numerical Model for Simulating Storm-Induced Beach Change, Report 2, Numerical Formulation and Model Tests, Technical Report CERC-89-9 1990, US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, MS.
23. Mather A.A. Linear and nonlinear sea level changes at Durban, South Africa. South African Journal of Science 2007, 103:509-512.
24. Mather A.A. Sea level rise for the east coast of Southern Africa. Seventh International Conference of Coastal and Port Engineering in Developing Countries, COPEDEC VII, 2008, 173, 11, Dubai, UAE 2008.
25. McNeil A., Frey R., Embrechts P. Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools 2005, Princeton University Press.
26. Mendez F.J., Menendez M., Luceno A., Losada I.J. Analyzing monthly extreme sea levels with a time-dependent GEV model. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 2007, 24:894-911.
27. Mendez F.J., Menendez M., Luceno A., Medina R., Graham N.E. Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height. Ocean Engineering 2008, 35:131-138.
28. Minguez R., Menéndez M., Méndez F.J., Losada I.J. Sensitivity analysis of time-dependent generalized extreme value models for ocean climate variables. Advances in Water Resources 2010, 33:833-845.
29. Monbet V., Prevosto M. Bivariate simulation of non stationary and non Gaussian observed processes application to sea state parameters. Applied Ocean research 2001, 23:139-145.
30. Montgomery D.C., Runger G.C. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers 2003, John Wiley & Sons, New York. 3rd Edition.
31. Nelsen R.B. An introduction to copulas. Springer Series in Statistics 2006, Springer, New York. second edition.
32. Pugh D.T. Tides, Surges and Mean Sea Level 1987, John Wiley and Sons, Avon, United Kingdom.
33. Reeve D.E. On coastal flood risk. ASCE Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 1998, 124(5):219-228.
34. Roelvink D., Reniers A., van Dongeren A., van Thiel de Vries J., McCall R., Lescinski J. Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands. Coastal Engineering 2009, 56:1133-1152.
35. Ruggiero P., Komar P.D., Allan J.C. Increasing wave heights and extreme value projections: the wave climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Coastal Engineering 2010, 57:539-552.
36. Salvadori G. Bivariate return periods via 2-copulas. Statistical Methodology 2004, 1:129-144.
37. Salvadori G., De Michele C. Multivariate multiparameter extreme value models and return periods: a copula approach. Water Resources Research 2010, 46:W10501. 10.1029/2009WR009040.
38. Savu, C., Trede, M., 2006. Hierarchical Archimedean copulas. (2008-11-01). http://www.uni-konstanz.de/micfinma/conference/Files/papers/Savu_Trede.pdf.
39. Savu C., Trede M. Hierarchies of Archimedean copulas. Quantitative Finance 2010, 10(3):295-304.
40. Schoonees J.S., Theron A.K. Evaluation of 10 cross-shore sediment transport/morphological models. Coastal Engineering 1995, 25:1-41.
41. Seymour R., Guza R.T., O'Reilly W., Elgar S. Rapid erosion of a small southern California beach fill. Coastal Engineering 2005, 52:151-158.
42. Sobey R.J. Extreme low and high water levels. Coastal Engineering 2001, 52:63-77.
43. Sommerfeld B.G., Kraus N.C., Larson M. SBEACH-32 Interface User's Manual, Final Report, TAMU-CC-CBI-95-12. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1996, 44.
44. Theron A., Rossouw M., Barwell L., Maherry A., Diedericks G., de Wet P. Quantification of risks to coastal areas and development: wave run-up and erosion. The 3rd Biennial CSIR Conference 2010, Reference: NE20-PA-F.
45. Tolman H.L. User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH-III version 1.18. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OMB Technical Note 166, 110 1999.
46. Wang B., Reeve D.E. Probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution near segmented shore-parallel breakwaters. Coastal Engineering 2010, 57:732-744.
47. Wang X.L., Zwiers F.W., Swail V.R. North Atlantic Ocean wave climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate 2004, 17:2368-2383.
48. Zacharioudaki A., Reeve D.E. Shoreline evolution under climate change wave scenarios. Climatic Change 2011, 108(1-2):73-105.
49. Zhang X., Zwiers F.W., Li G. Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. Journal of Climate 2004, 17:1945-1952.
50. Zheng J., Dean R.G. Numerical models and intercomparisons of beach profile evolution. Coastal Engineering 1997, 30:169-201.