Modeling scale and variability in human-environmental interactions in Inner Asia

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 241, Issue , 2012, Pages 5-14

  Rogers, J Daniel ^a   Nichols, Teresa ^b   Emmerich, Theresa ^c   Latek, Maciej ^d   Cioffi Revilla, Claudio ^d  

^a SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION   (United States)

^b INDIANA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^d GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Agent based modeling; Complexity; Inner Asia; Pastoralism; Simulations; Weather

Indexed keywords

AGENT-BASED MODELING; COMPLEXITY; INNER ASIA; PASTORALISM; SIMULATIONS; WEATHER;

COMPUTATIONAL METHODS;

ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS;

COMPLEXITY; DECISION MAKING; DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; KINSHIP; LONG-TERM CHANGE; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; PASTORALISM; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

ASIA;

EID: 84864039477     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.025     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Ali E., Sharrow S.H. Sheep grazing efficiency and selectivity on Oregon hill pasture. Journal of Range Management 1994, 47:494-497.
2. Allen C.R., Gunderson L., Johnson A.R. The use of discontinuities and functional groups to assess relative resilience in complex systems. Ecosystems 2005, 8:958-966.
3. Anthony D.W. The Horse, the Wheel and Language: How Bronze-Age Riders from the Eurasian Steppes Shaped the Modern World 2007, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
4. The Archaeology of Mobility: Old World and New World Pastoralism 2008, Cotsen Institute of Archaeology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles. H. Barnard, W. Wendrich (Eds.).
5. Bartolome J.W. Application of herbivore optimization theory to rangelands of the western United States. Ecological Applications 1993, 3:27-29.
6. Batbuyan B. Territorial Organization of Mongolian Pastoral Livestock Husbandry in the Transition to a Market Economy 2008, FAO, p. 1. http://www.fao.org/docrep/W4760E/w4760e0o.htm (online).
7. Batima P. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Livestock Sector of Mongolia 2006, International START Secretariat, Washington DC, AIACC; Project No. AS 06.
8. Batima P., Natsagdorj L., Batnasan N. Vulnerability of Mongolia's pastoralists to climate extremes and changes. Climate Change and Vulnerability 2008, 67-87. Earthscan, London. N. Leary, C. Conde, J. Kulkarni, A. Nyong, J. Pulhin (Eds.).
9. Bedunah D., McArthur E., Fernández-Giménez M. Rangelands of Central Asia: Transformations, Issues and Future Challenges 2006, USDAFS 39 Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins.
10. Benecke N., von den Driesch A. Horse exploitation in the Kazakh steppes during the Eneolithic and Bronze Age. Prehistoric Steppe Adaptation and the Horse 2003, 69-82. McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, Cambridge. M.A. Levine, A.C. Renfrew, K. Boyle (Eds.).
11. Begzsuren S., Ellis J.E., Ojima D.S., Coughenour M.B., Chuluun T. Livestock responses to droughts and severe winter weather in the Gobi Three Beauty National Park, Mongolia. Journal of Arid Environments 2004, 59:785-796.
12. Bold B.O. Socio-economic segmentation-Khot-Ail in nomadic livestock keeping of Mongolia. Nomadic Peoples 1996, 39:69-86.
13. Xiongnu Archaeology: Multidisciplinary Perspectives of the First Steppe Empire in Inner Asia 2011, Bonn University Press, Bonn. U. Brosseder, B. Miller (Eds.).
14. Carpenter S.R., Walker B., Marty A.J., Abel N. From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what?. Ecosystems 2001, 4:765-781.
15. Christensen L., Coughenour M.B., Ellis J.E., Chen Z. Sustainability of Inner Mongolian grasslands: application of the Savanna Model. Journal of Range Management 2003, 56:319-327.
16. Cioffi-Revilla, C., Luke, S., Parker, D.C., Rogers, J.D., Fitzhugh, W.W., 2007. Agent-based modeling simulation of social adaptation and long-term change in Inner Asia. In: Takahashi, S., Sallach, D., Rouchier, J. (Eds.), Advancing Social Simulation: The First World Congress in Social Simulation. Springer, Tokyo. pp. 189-200.
17. Cioffi-Revilla C., Rogers J.D., Latek M. The MASON HouseholdsWorld model of pastoral nomad societies. The Science of Social Simulation: The Second World Congress on Social Simulation 2011, 193-204. Springer, Tokyo. K. Takadama, C. Cioffi-Revilla, G. Deffaunt (Eds.).
18. Grasslands and Grassland Sciences in Northern China 1992, National Academies Press, Washington DC. Committee on Scholarly Communication with the Peoples' Republic of China (Ed.).
19. Cooper L. Wealth and poverty in the Mongolian pastoral economy. Policy Alternatives for Livestock Development, Research Report 2 1995, University of Sussex Institute of Development Studies, Brighton.
20. Cribb R. Nomads in Archaeology 1991, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
21. DeAngelis D.L., Waterhouse J.C. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium concepts in ecological models. Ecological Monographs 1987, 57(1):1-21.
22. Dorligsuren D. Issues of Improving of Pasture Management 2006, Academy of Science, Ulaanbaatar.
23. Ellis J. Climate variability and complex ecosystem dynamics: implications for pastoral development. Living with Uncertainty: New Directions in Pastoral Development in Africa 1995, 37-46. Intermediate Technology Publications, London. I. Scoones (Ed.).
24. Enkh-Amgalan A. Production Function Analysis of the Extensive Livestock Industry in Mongolia 1997, University of New England, Armidale.
25. Fernández-Giménez M.E. Landscapes, Livestock, and Livelihoods: Social, Ecological, and Land-use Change Among the Nomadic Pastoralists of Mongolia 1997, University of California, Berkeley.
26. Fernández-Giménez M.E. The effects of livestock privatization on pastoral land use and land tenure in post-socialist Mongolia. Nomadic Peoples 2001, 5:49-66.
27. Fernández-Giménez M.E. Spatial and social boundaries and the paradox of pastoral land tenure: a case study from post-socialist Mongolia. Human Ecology 2002, 30:49-78.
28. Fernández-Giménez M.E., Allen-Diaz B. Testing a non-equilibrium model of rangeland vegetation dynamics in Mongolia. Journal of Applied Ecology 1999, 36(6):871-885.
29. Folke C., Carpenter S.R., Walker B., Scheffer M., Elmqvist T., Gunderson L., Holling C.S. Regime shifts, resilience and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 2004, 35:557-581.
30. Frachetti M.D. Differentiated landscapes and non-uniform complexity among Bronze Age societies of the Eurasian steppe. Social Complexities in Prehistoric Eurasia: Monuments, Metals, and Mobility 2009, 19-46. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. B.K. Hanks, K.M. Linduff (Eds.).
31. Fragmentation in Semi-arid and Arid Landscapes: Consequences for Human and Natural Systems 2008, Springer, Netherlands. K.A. Galvin, R.S. Reid, R.H. Behnke, N.T. Hobbs (Eds.).
32. Garmestani A.S., Allen C.R., Gunderson L. Panarchy: discontinuities reveal similarities in the dynamic system structure of ecological and social systems. Ecology and Society 2009, 14(1):15. (online). http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/.
33. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems 2002, Island Press, Washington DC. L.H. Gunderson, C.S. Holling (Eds.).
34. Bad Year Economics: Cultural Responses to Risk and Uncertainty 1989, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. P. Halstead, J. O'Shea (Eds.).
35. Hansen M., DeFries R., Townshend J.R.G., Sohlberg R. UMD Global land Cover Classification, 1 Kilometer, 1.0 1998, University of Maryland, Department of Geography, College Park.
36. Hansen M., DeFries R., Townshend J.R.G., Sohlberg R. Global land cover classification at 1km resolution using a decision tree classifier. International Journal of Remote Sensing 2000, 21:1331-1365.
37. Holling C.S., Gunderson L.H. Resilience and adaptive cycles. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems 2002, 25-62. Island Press, Washington DC. L.H. Gunderson, C.S. Holling (Eds.).
38. Honeychurch W., Amartuvshin C. States on horseback: the rise of Inner Asian confederations and empires. Archaeology of Asia 2006, 255-278. Blackwell Publishing LTD, Cornwall. M.T. Stark (Ed.).
39. Honeychurch W., Amartuvshin C. Hinterlands, urban centers, and mobile settings: the " new" Old World archaeology from the Eurasian Steppe. Asian Perspectives 2007, 46(1):36-64.
40. Honeychurch W., Wright J., Amartuvshin C. A nested approach to survey in the Egiin Gol Valley, Mongolia. Journal of Field Archaeology 2007, 32:339-352.
41. Houle, J-L., 2010. Emergent complexity on the Mongolian steppe: mobility, territoriality, and the development of early nomadic polities. Ph.D. Dissertation. Department of Anthropology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh.
42. The End of Nomadism?: Society, State, and the Environment in Inner Asia 1999, Duke University Press, Durham. C. Humphrey, D. Sneath (Eds.).
43. Iwasaki H. Impact of interannual variability of meteorological parameters on vegetation activity over Mongolia. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 2006, 84(4):745-762.
44. Kawamura K., Akiyama T., Yokota H., Tsutsumi M., Yasuda T., Watanabe O., Wang S. Comparing MODIS vegetation indices with AVHRR NDVI for monitoring the forage quantity and quality in Inner Mongolia grassland, China. Japanese Society of Grassland Science 2005, 51:33-40.
45. Kerven C., Alimaev I.I., Behnke R., Davidson G., Malmakov N., Smailov A., Wright I. Fragmenting pastoral mobility: changing grazing patterns in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. Rangelands of Central Asia: Proceedings of the Conference on Transformations, Issues, and Future Challenges 2006, 99-110. D.J. Bedunah, E.D. McArthur, M. Fernández-Giménez (Eds.).
46. Kohl P.L. The Making of Bronze Age Eurasia 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
47. Kohler T.A., Kresl J., Van West C., Carr E., Wilshusen R.H. Be there then: a modeling approach to settlement determinants and spatial efficiency among Late Ancestral Pueblo populations of the Mesa Verde region, U.S. Southwest. Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies: Agent-Based Modeling of Social and Spatial Processes 2000, 145-178. Oxford University Press, Oxford/New York. T.A. Kohler, G.J. Gumerman (Eds.).
48. Kohler T.A., van der Leeuw S.E. Introduction. The Model-based Archaeology of Socionatural Systems 2007, School for Advanced Research Press, Santa Fe.
49. Leeuw J.D., Bakker J.P. Sheep-grazing with different foraging efficiences in a Dutch mixed grassland. Journal of Applied Ecology 1986, 23:781-793.
50. Li W., Huntsinger L. China's grassland contract policy and its impacts on herder ability to benefit in Inner Mongolia: tragic feedbacks. Ecology and Society 2011, 16(2):1. (online). http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art1/.
51. Luke S., Cioffi-Revilla C., Panait L., Sullivan K. MASON: A Java multi-agent simulation environment. Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 2005, 81(7):517-527.
52. Questioning Collapse: Human Resilience, Ecological Vulnerability, and the Aftermath of Empire 2009, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. P.A. Macanany, N. Yoffee (Eds.).
53. Milner-Gulland E.J., Kerven C., Behnke R., Wright I., Smailov A. A multi-agent system model of pastoralist behaviour in Kazakhstan. Ecological Complexity 2006, 3:23-36.
54. Morinaga Y., Bayarbaator L., Erdenetsetseg D., Shinoda M. Zoo-meteorological study of cow weight change in a forest steppe region of Mongolia. Proceedings of the Sixth International Workshop on Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Asia 2004, 100-108.
55. National Statistical Office Mongolian Statistical Yearbook 2001, National Statistical Office, Ulaanbaatar.
56. National Statistical Office Mongolian Statistical Yearbook 2005, National Statistical Office, Ulaanbaatar.
57. Natsagdorj L., Dulamsuren J. Some aspects of assessment of the dzud phenomena. Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 233 2001, 3-18. Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Press, Mongolia.
58. O'Shea J., Halstead P. Conclusions: bad year economics. Bad Year Economics: Cultural Responses to Risk and Uncertainty 1989, 123-126. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. P. Halstead, J. O'Shea (Eds.).
59. Peterson G., Allen C.R., Holling C.S. Ecological resilience, biodiversity, and scale. Ecosystems 1998, 1:6-18.
60. Pickett S.T.A., Cadenasso M.L., Grove J.M. Biocomplexity in coupled natural-human systems: a multidimensional framework. Ecosystems 2005, 8:225-232.
61. Redman C.L., Nelson M., Kinzig A.P. The resilience of socioecological landscapes: lessons from the Hohokam. The Archaeology of Environmental Change: Socionatural Legacies of Degradation and Resilience 2009, 15-39. University of Arizona Press, Tucson. C.T. Fisher, J.B. Hill, G.M. Feinman (Eds.).
62. Retzer V., Nadrowski K., Miehe G. Variation of precipitation and its effect on phytomass production and consumption by livestock and large wild herbivores along an altitudinal gradient during a drought, South Gobi, Mongolia. Journal of Arid Environments 2006, 66:135-150.
63. Reynolds S.G. Providing winter bases for transhumant herders in Altai, Xinjiang China: some consequences and lessons learned. Rangelands of Central Asia: Proceedings of the Conference on Transformations, Issues, and Future Challenges 2006, 92-98. USDAFS 39 Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins. D.J. Bedunah, E.D. McArthur, M. Fernández-Giménez (Eds.).
64. Robinson, S., 2001. Pastoralism and land degradation in Kazakhstan. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Warwick, Warwick.
65. Robinson S., Milner-Gulland E.J., Alimaev I. Political change and factors limiting numbers of wild and domestic ungulates in Kazakhstan. Human Ecology 2003, 31:87-110.
66. Rogers J.D. The contingencies of state formation in eastern Inner Asia. Asian Perspectives 2007, 46(2):249-274.
67. Rogers, J.D. Inner Asian states and empires: theories and synthesis. Journal of Archaeological Research; in press.
68. Rogers J.D., Cioffi-Revilla C. Expanding empires and the analysis of change. Current Archaeological Research in Mongolia 2009, 445-459. Bonn University Press, Bonn. J. Bemmann, H. Parzinger, E. Pohl, D. Tseveendorzh (Eds.).
69. Scheffer M., Carpenter S.R. Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 2003, 18:648-656.
70. Scheffer M., Carpenter S., Foley A., Folke C., Walker B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 2001, 413(6856):591-596.
71. Shurentuja B., Ellis J.E., Ojima D.S., Detling J.K., Chuluun T. Herbaceous forage variability and carrying capacity in the Gobi Three Beauty Mountains National Park of Mongolia. Fundamental Issues Affecting Sustainability of the Mongolian Steppe 2002, 177-191. International Institute for the Study of Nomadic Civilizations, Ulaanbaatar. T. Chuluun, D.S. Ojima (Eds.).
72. Simukov A.D. Mongolian migrations. Contemporary Mongolia 1934, 7(4):40-46.
73. Sneath D. State policy and pasture degradation in Inner Asia. Science 1998, 281:1147-1148.
74. Swift J.J. Institutionalizing Pastoral Risk Management in Mongolia: Lessons Learned 2007, FAO, Rome.
75. Tainter J.A. The Collapse of Complex Societies 1988, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
76. The Economist Mongolia's Zud-Bitter Toll 2010, April 3, The Economist, p. 44.
77. Tigner J.R., Larson G.E. Sheep losses on selected ranches in southern Wyoming. Journal of Range Management 1997, 30:244-252.
78. Vainshtein S. Nomads of South Siberia: The Pastoral Economies of Tuva 1980, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
79. Vreeland H.H. Mongol Community and Kinship Structure 1957, Human Relations Area Files, New Haven.
80. Westoby M., Walker B., Noy Meir I. Opportunistic management for rangelands not at equilibrium. Journal of Range Management 1989, 42(4):266-274.
81. Ykhanbai H., Bulgan E., Beket U., Vernooy R., Graham J. Reversing grassland degradation and improving herders' livelihoods in the Altai Mountains of Mongolia. Mountain Research and Development 2004, 24(2):96-100.