Greed and grievance in civil war

International Affairs

Volumn 88, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 757-777

  Keen, David ^a  

^a LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84864022221     PISSN: 00205850     EISSN: 14682346     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2346.2012.01100.x     Document Type: Article

References (116)

1. Frances Stewart, 'Horizontal inequalities and conflict: an introduction and some hypotheses', in Frances Stewart, ed., Horizontal inequalities and conflict: understanding group violence in multiethnic societies (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), p. 3.
2. Paul Collier, 'Doing well out of war: an economic perspective', in Mats Berdal and David Malone, eds, Greed and grievance: economic agendas in civil wars (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner/International Peace Academy, 2000), p. 96.
3. Frances Stewart and Valpy Fitzgerald, War and underdevelopment, 2 vols (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000).2
4. See e.g. the discussions on war and famine in Sudan in David Keen, The benefits of famine: a political economy of famine and relief in Southwestern Sudan, 1983-89 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994; republished by James Currey, Oxford, 2008), and more especially in David Keen, The economic functions of violence in civil wars, Adelphi Paper no. 319 (Oxford: Oxford University Press and International Institute for Strategic Studies 1998).
5. Paul Collier, The bottom billion: why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007).
6. 'How to help the poorest: springing the traps', The Economist, 2 Aug. 2007.
7. Pre-publication endorsement.
8. Niall Ferguson, 'The least among us', The New York Times, 1 July 2007.
9. Collier notes in Paul Collier, Wars, guns and votes: democracy in dangerous places (New York: HarperCollins, 'given the decision to commit troops, the more that were sent, the safer was the society ... Places with many peacekeepers have a lower rate or reversion to conflict despite intrinsically being more at risk.'2009) 84
10. William Easterly, 'The burden of proof should be on interventionists-doubt is a superb reason for inaction', Boston Review, July-Aug. 2009; Christopher Cramer, 'Homo Economicus goes to war: methodological individualism, rational choice and the political economy of war', World Development: 11, 2002, pp. 1845-964
11. Laurie Nathan, '"The frightful inadequacy of most of the statistics": a critique of Collier and Hoeffler on causes of civil war', Crisis States Research Centre discussion paper no. 11 (London: London School of Economics, 2005
12. Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, The political economy of armed conflict: beyond greed and grievance (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner; New York: International Peace Academy, 2003).
13. Frances Stewart, Graham Brown and Arnim Langer, 'Major findings and conclusions on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict', In Stewart, ed., Horizontal inequalities and conflict, p. 294.
14. Michael Ross, 'What do we know about natural resources and civil war?', Journal of Peace Research 41: 3, 2004, pp. 337-56.
15. Collier, 'Doing well out of war'.
16. Gudrun Ostby, 'Inequalities, the political environment and civil conflict: evidence from 55 developing countries', in Stewart, ed., Horizontal inequalities and conflict, pp. 136-59.
17. Luca Mancini, 'Horizontal inequality and communal violence: evidence from Indonesian districts', In Stewart, ed., Horizontal inequalities and conflict, p. 130.
18. S. Mansood Murshed and Scott Gates, 'Spatial horizontal inequality and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal', July 2004, WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research), pp. accessed 28 May 2012.1-15
19. Ostby, 'Inequalities, the political environment and civil conflict'.
20. Stewart et al., 'Major findings and conclusions on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict'.
21. Arnim Langer, 'Horizontal inequality and violent conflict: the case of Cote d'Ivoire', CRISE working paper no. 13 (Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, Oxford University, 2004).
22. Stewart et al., 'Major findings and conclusions on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict', pp. 290-91.
23. Stewart et al., 'Major findings and conclusions on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict', p. 291.
24. David Keen, Conflict and collusion in Sierra Leone (Oxford: James Currey, 2005).
25. Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Måns Söderbom, 'Post-conflict risks' (Oxford: Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University, 2006).
26. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, pp. 190-91.
27. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 136.
28. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 7.
29. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, pp. 197-8.
30. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, 'Military expenditure in post-conflict societies', Economics of Governance 7: 1, 2006, pp. 89-107.
31. Paul Collier, 'Post-conflict recovery: how should strategies be distinctive?', Journal of African Economies 18 (suppl. 1), 2009, pp. 99-131.
32. Lansana Gberie, 'The May 25 coup d'état in Sierra Leone: a militariat revolt?', Africa Development 3-4, 2007, pp. 149-70.
33. Lansana Gberie, A dirty war in West Africa: the R.U.F. and the destruction of Sierra Leone (London: Hurst, 2005
34. Keen, Conflict and collusion in Sierra Leone.
35. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 139.
36. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 3.
37. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 20.
38. Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder Found that during the 170 years from 1811 to 1980, the danger of war (external and internal) was greatest when states were moving rapidly towards democracy. They argued that elites, when threatened by democratic change, have frequently mobilized support through nationalist appeals, and have typically found that once populations have been mobilized they are difficult to demobilize. See Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'Democratization and the danger of war', International Security 20: 1, Summer 1995, pp. 5-38
39. Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Electing to fight: why emerging democracies go to war (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005).
40. Michael Mann, The dark side of democracy: explaining ethnic cleansing (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
41. Roland Paris, At war's end: building peace after civil conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
42. Michael Ignatieff, Blood and belonging: journeys into the new nationalism (London: BBC Books and Chatto & Windus, 1993).
43. Frances Stewart and Meghan O'Sullivan, 'Democracy, conflict and development: three cases', Working paper no. 15 (Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford, 1998).
44. Collier et al., 'Post-conflict risks', p. 6.
45. Jonathan Kay, 'Jonathan Kay on Paul Collier's "War, guns and votes": democracy may not be such a great thing after all', National Post, 6 April 2009, accessed 28 May 2012.
46. Collier, The bottom billion, p. xii.
47. Hannah Arendt, The origins of totalitarianism (New York: Harvest Books, 1973; 1951).
48. There is a danger that we revere science in the sense of revering numbers and technology while simultaneously failing to value rigorous standards of evidence.
49. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 122.
50. Collier, The bottom billion, p. 3.
51. Tony Blair, 'A battle for global values', Foreign Affairs 86: 1, Jan.Feb. 2007, pp. 79-90.
52. On the role of shaming in inducing violence, see James Gilligan, Violence: reflections on our deadliest epidemic (London: Jessica Kingsley, 1999
53. David Keen, Useful enemies: when waging wars is more important than winning them (London: Yale University Press, 2012).
54. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 235.
55. Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis, Understanding civil war: evidence and analysis (Washington DC: World Bank, 2005).
56. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 156.
57. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 123.
58. I do not discount the possibility that I have failed to grasp the complexity and sophistication of the econometrician's art.
59. Mark Duffield, Global governance and the new wars: the merging of development and security (London: Zed, 2001).
60. Mahmood Mamdani, Saviors and survivors: Darfur, politics and the War on Terror (New York: Pantheon Books, 2007).
61. Chris Dolan, Social torture: the case of northern Uganda, 1986-2006 (Oxford: Berghahn Books, 2009
62. On the abuses of the Ugandan army in Sudan, see Mareike Schomerus, '"They forget what they came for": Uganda's army in Sudan', Journal of Eastern African Studies 6: 1, 2012, pp. 124-53.
63. UN Panel of Experts, Report of the Panel of Experts on the illegal exploitation of natural resources and other forms of wealth of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2001 (letter dated 12 April 2001 from the Secretary General to the President of the Security Council); UN Panel of Experts, Final report of the Panel of Experts on the illegal exploitation of natural resources and other forms of wealth of the Democratic Republic of Congo, 16 Oct. 2002, S/2002/1146, pp. 1-57.
64. Collier, Wars, guns, and votes, p. 224.
65. Neil Cooper, 'State collapse as business: the role of conflict trade and the emerging control agenda', Development and Change 33: 5, 2002, pp. 935-55
66. Filip Reyntjens, 'Rwanda, ten years on: from genocide to dictatorship', African Affairs 103: 411, 2004, pp. 177-210.
67. Nicholas Stockton, 'In defence of humanitarianism', Disaster 22: 4, 1998, pp. 352-60
68. Kisangani Emizet, 'The massacre of refugees in the Congo: a case of UN peacekeeping failure and international law', Journal of Modern African Studies 38: 3, 2000, pp. 163-202.
69. Collier, Wars, guns, and votes 139.
70. Mark Duffield, 'Global civil war: the non-insured, international containment and post-interventionary society', Journal of Refugee Studies 21: 2, 2008, p. 157.
71. Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 157.
72. Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 157.
73. Duffield, 'Global civil war'.
74. Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 160.
75. Duffield, 'Global civil war', pp. 159-60.
76. Collier, Wars, guns, and votes, p. 135.
77. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 135.
78. Douglas Johnson, The root causes of Sudan's civil wars (Oxford: James Currey, 2003).
79. Keen, The benefits of famine; Mamdani, Saviors and survivors.
80. Johnson, The root causes of Sudan's civil wars; Paul de Wit, 'Legality and legitimacy: a study on access to land, pasture and water', Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, June 2001, accessed May 28 2012. On regional disparities, see World Bank/Government of Sudan, Sudan: stabilization and reconstruction. Country economic memorandum (Washington DC), 30 June 2003, main text, report no. 24620-SU, table A1.4, p. 3.1
81. Keen, The benefits of famine.
82. Mamdani, Saviors and survivors.
83. Stewart and Fitzgerald, War and underdevelopment; also Mats Berdal and David Keen, 'Violence and economic agendas in civil wars: some policy implications', Millennium 26: 3, 1997, pp. 795-818
84. Ballentine and Sherman, The political economy of armed conflict.
85. Adam Philips, 'Insatiable creatures', Guardian, 8 Aug. 2009.
86. Keen, Conflict and collusion in Sierra Leone (see esp. Conclusion).
87. Joseph Hanlon, 'Is the international community helping to recreate the preconditions for war in Sierra Leone?', Round Table 94: 381 2005, p. 461.
88. Keen, Conflict and collusion in Sierra Leone.
89. Portland Trust, 'Economics in peacemaking: lessons from Northern Ireland' (London, May 2007), pp. 1-47.
90. Markus Bouillon, 'The failure of big business: on the socio-economic reality of the Middle East peace process', Mediterranean Politics 9: 1, 2004, pp. 1-28.
91. For a fuller discussion of this point, see David Keen, 'Economic initiatives to tackle conflict: bringing politics back in', occasional paper no. 9, Crisis States Research Centre (London: London School of Economics, May 2009).
92. Graham Brown, 'Horizontal inequalities and separatism in Southeast Asia: a comparative perspective', In Stewart, ed., Horizontal inequalities and conflict, p. 279.
93. Brown, 'Horizontal inequalities and separatism in Southeast Asia', p. 281.
94. Stewart et al., 'Major findings and conclusions on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict', p. 295.
95. Stewart et al., 'Major findings and conclusions on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict', p. 295.
96. Collier, 'Doing well out of war'.
97. Keen, The benefits of famine; Keen, Conflict and collusion in Sierra Leone. Heavy-handed state repression has also fuelled rebellion in northern Nigeria and Somalia (see e.g. Ken Menkhaus, 'Stabilisation and humanitarian access in a collapsed state: the Somali case', Disasters 34: S3, 2010 S320-41.
98. Christine Messiant, 'Angola: woe to the vanquished', in Fabrice Weissman, ed., In the shadow of 'just wars': violence, politics and humanitarian action (London: Hurst, 2004).
99. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 132.
100. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 199.
101. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 138.
102. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, pp. 138-9.
103. Menkhaus, 'Stabilisation and humanitarian access in a collapsed state'; Weissman, ed., In the shadow of 'just wars'; Antonio Donini, 'Afghanistan: humanitarianism unraveled?', briefing paper (Somerville, MA: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, 2010).
104. Collier, The bottom billion, p. 42.
105. Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 152, citing Blair, 'This is a battle with only one outcome: our victory', Guardian, 3 Oct. 2001. Duffield notes further: 'Since the end of the Cold War, the radical interdependence of world events has placed a renewed emphasis on the need for social cohesion at home while, at the same time, urging a fresh wave of intervention abroad to reconstruct weak and fragile states, or remove rogue ones. What is at stake in this war is the West's ability to contain and manage international poverty while maintaining the ability of mass society to live and consume beyond its means. Supported by the massed ranks of career politicians and big business, there is a real possibility that this disastrous formula for sharing the world with others will be defended to the death' (Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 162). Duffield says international interventions have been relatively effective in halving the number of ongoing wars in the world (Duffield, 'Global civil war'); however, 'as Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq suggest, more difficult is winning the peace' (Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 158). It is a case of suppression or containment of conflict, rather than resolution (Duffield, 'Global civil war 159).
106. Duffield, 'Global civil war', p. 159.
107. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 154.
108. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 204.
109. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 205.
110. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 227.
111. Andrew C. Miller, 'Debunking the myth of the "good" coup d'etat in Africa', African Studies Quarterly 12: 2 2011, pp. 45-70.
112. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 211.
113. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 187. In theatre, a deus ex machina has long been regarded as a pretty inept plot device-an essentially implausible resolution of a complex situation.
114. Collier, Wars, guns and votes, p. 89.
115. Keen, Conflict and collusion in Sierra Leone.
116. Keen, Useful enemies.