메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 15, 2012, Pages 2307-2321

Generating probabilistic estimates of hydrological response for Irish catchments using a weather generator and probabilistic climate change scenarios

Author keywords

Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE); Hydrological models; Probabilistic climate change scenario; Weather generators

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE SCENARIOS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; IRELAND; POLICY FORMULATION; POLICY MAKERS; PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES; RIVER FLOW; SEASONAL MEAN; SEASONALITY; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION; WEATHER GENERATOR;

EID: 84863867472     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: 10991085     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8349     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (17)

References (62)
  • 2
    • 0342376769 scopus 로고
    • Hydrology and climate change
    • Calow P, Petts GE (eds).
    • Arnell NW. 1993. Hydrology and climate change. In The rivers handbook, vol. 2, Calow P, Petts GE (eds). 173-185.
    • (1993) The rivers handbook , vol.2 , pp. 173-185
    • Arnell, N.W.1
  • 3
    • 79954834257 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments
    • DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.01.008.
    • Bastola S, Murphy C, Sweeney J. 2011. The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments. Advances in Water Resources 34(5): 562-576. DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.01.008.
    • (2011) Advances in Water Resources , vol.34 , Issue.5 , pp. 562-576
    • Bastola, S.1    Murphy, C.2    Sweeney, J.3
  • 4
    • 33644526990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
    • Beven K. 2006. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 320(1-2): 18-36.
    • (2006) Journal of Hydrology , vol.320 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 18-36
    • Beven, K.1
  • 5
    • 0027009437 scopus 로고
    • The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction
    • Beven K, Binley AM. 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes 6: 279-298.
    • (1992) Hydrological Processes , vol.6 , pp. 279-298
    • Beven, K.1    Binley, A.M.2
  • 7
    • 33745452078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty)
    • Cameron D. 2006. An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty). Journal of Hydrology 1-2: 212-226.
    • (2006) Journal of Hydrology , vol.1-2 , pp. 212-226
    • Cameron, D.1
  • 8
    • 56649105030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved stochastic weather generator for hydrological impact studies
    • Caron A, Leconte R, Brissette F. 2008. An improved stochastic weather generator for hydrological impact studies. Canadian Water Resources Journal 33: 233-256.
    • (2008) Canadian Water Resources Journal , vol.33 , pp. 233-256
    • Caron, A.1    Leconte, R.2    Brissette, F.3
  • 9
    • 78149473504 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD
    • DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7769.
    • Cloke HL, Jeffers C, Wetterhall F, Byrne T, Lowe J, Pappenberger F. 2010. Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD. Hydrological Processes. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7769.
    • (2010) Hydrological Processes
    • Cloke, H.L.1    Jeffers, C.2    Wetterhall, F.3    Byrne, T.4    Lowe, J.5    Pappenberger, F.6
  • 10
    • 0032939324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Calibration Procedure Using TOPMODEL to Determine Suitability for Evaluating Potential Climate Change Effects on Water Yield
    • Dietterick BC, Lynch JA, Corbett ES. 1999. A Calibration Procedure Using TOPMODEL to Determine Suitability for Evaluating Potential Climate Change Effects on Water Yield. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(2): 457-468.
    • (1999) Journal of the American Water Resources Association , vol.35 , Issue.2 , pp. 457-468
    • Dietterick, B.C.1    Lynch, J.A.2    Corbett, E.S.3
  • 11
    • 0347717529 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representing the global atmosphere: computer models, data, and knowledge about climate change
    • Miller CA, Edwards PN (eds). MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
    • Edwards PN. 2001. Representing the global atmosphere: computer models, data, and knowledge about climate change. In Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance, Miller CA, Edwards PN (eds). MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA; 31-65.
    • (2001) Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance , pp. 31-65
    • Edwards, P.N.1
  • 13
    • 37249040503 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling of precipitation for a selection of sites in Ireland employing a generalised linear modelling approach
    • Fealy R, Sweeney J. 2007. Statistical downscaling of precipitation for a selection of sites in Ireland employing a generalised linear modelling approach. International Journal of Climatology 27(15): 2083-2094.
    • (2007) International Journal of Climatology , vol.27 , Issue.15 , pp. 2083-2094
    • Fealy, R.1    Sweeney, J.2
  • 14
    • 44949130824 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling of temperature, radiation and potential evapotranspiration to produce a multiple GCM ensemble mean for a selection of sites in Ireland
    • Fealy R, Sweeney J. 2008. Statistical downscaling of temperature, radiation and potential evapotranspiration to produce a multiple GCM ensemble mean for a selection of sites in Ireland. Irish Geography 41(1): 1-27.
    • (2008) Irish Geography , vol.41 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-27
    • Fealy, R.1    Sweeney, J.2
  • 15
    • 35348933854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Review: Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling
    • Fowler HJ, Blenkinsopa S, Tebaldi C. 2007. Review: Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 27: 1547-1578.
    • (2007) International Journal of Climatology , vol.27 , pp. 1547-1578
    • Fowler, H.J.1    Blenkinsopa, S.2    Tebaldi, C.3
  • 16
    • 0348044464 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability of regional climate change calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method
    • DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017130.
    • Giorgi F, Mearns LO. 2003. Probability of regional climate change calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 1629-1632. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017130.
    • (2003) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.30 , pp. 1629-1632
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.O.2
  • 17
    • 33749069924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections
    • Greene AM, Goddard L, Lall U. 2006. Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections. Journal of Climate 19: 4326-4346.
    • (2006) Journal of Climate , vol.19 , pp. 4326-4346
    • Greene, A.M.1    Goddard, L.2    Lall, U.3
  • 18
    • 0035811469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate
    • Grubler A, Nakicenovic N. 2001. Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate. Nature 412, 15.
    • (2001) Nature , vol.412 , pp. 15
    • Grubler, A.1    Nakicenovic, N.2
  • 20
    • 84863879606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust adaptation assessment- Climate change and the water supply sector. Climate2010- Climate Change and the Sustainable Management of Water Resources.
    • Hall J, Murphy C. 2010a. Robust adaptation assessment- Climate change and the water supply sector. Climate2010- Climate Change and the Sustainable Management of Water Resources.
    • (2010)
    • Hall, J.1    Murphy, C.2
  • 21
    • 84755160682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vulnerability analysis of future public water supply under changing climate conditions: A study of the Moy catchment, western Ireland
    • Hall J, Murphy C. 2010b. Vulnerability analysis of future public water supply under changing climate conditions: A study of the Moy catchment, western Ireland. Water Resources Management 24(13): 3527-3545.
    • (2010) Water Resources Management , vol.24 , Issue.13 , pp. 3527-3545
    • Hall, J.1    Murphy, C.2
  • 23
    • 1242322109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A nonparametric model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall amounts
    • DOI: 10.1029/2003WR002570.
    • Harrold TI, Sharma A, Sheather SJ. 2003. A nonparametric model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall amounts. Water Resources Research 39(12): 1300. DOI: 10.1029/2003WR002570.
    • (2003) Water Resources Research , vol.39 , Issue.12 , pp. 1300
    • Harrold, T.I.1    Sharma, A.2    Sheather, S.J.3
  • 24
    • 33745968013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of climate-change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertainty
    • Horton P, Schaefli B, Mezghani A, Hingray B, Musy A. 2006. Assessment of climate-change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertainty. Hydrological Processes 20: 2091-2109.
    • (2006) Hydrological Processes , vol.20 , pp. 2091-2109
    • Horton, P.1    Schaefli, B.2    Mezghani, A.3    Hingray, B.4    Musy, A.5
  • 28
    • 77954370030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models
    • DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3361.
    • Knutti R, Cermak J, Furrer R, Tebaldi C, Meehl G. 2010. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. Journal of Climate 23: 2739-2758. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3361.
    • (2010) Journal of Climate , vol.23 , pp. 2739-2758
    • Knutti, R.1    Cermak, J.2    Furrer, R.3    Tebaldi, C.4    Meehl, G.5
  • 29
    • 0034739246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives
    • Madsen H. 2000. Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives. Journal of Hydrology 235: 276-288.
    • (2000) Journal of Hydrology , vol.235 , pp. 276-288
    • Madsen, H.1
  • 34
    • 0242663296 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pattern Scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates
    • Mitchell TD. 2003. Pattern Scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Climate Change 60: 217-242.
    • (2003) Climate Change , vol.60 , pp. 217-242
    • Mitchell, T.D.1
  • 35
    • 79952283944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of ERA-40, ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with observed surface air temperatures over Ireland
    • DOI: 10.1002/joc.2098.
    • Mooney PA, Mulligan FJ, Fealy R. 2010. Comparison of ERA-40, ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with observed surface air temperatures over Ireland. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2098.
    • (2010) International Journal of Climatology
    • Mooney, P.A.1    Mulligan, F.J.2    Fealy, R.3
  • 36
    • 80054737129 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate Change and Water Resources in Ireland
    • Sweeney J. (ed.). Government Publications: Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford.
    • Murphy C, Charlton R. 2008. Climate Change and Water Resources in Ireland. In Climate Change: Refining the Impacts, Sweeney J. (ed.). Government Publications: Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford.
    • (2008) Climate Change: Refining the Impacts
    • Murphy, C.1    Charlton, R.2
  • 37
    • 4043124611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature02771.
    • Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA. 2004. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430: 768-772. DOI: 10.1038/nature02771.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.430 , pp. 768-772
    • Murphy, J.M.1    Sexton, D.M.H.2    Barnett, D.N.3    Jones, G.S.4    Webb, M.J.5    Collins, M.6    Stainforth, D.A.7
  • 38
    • 77955010625 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combined Effect of Global Climate Projection and Hydrologic Model Uncertainties on the Future Changes of Streamflow
    • DOI: 10.1061/41114(371)10.
    • Najafi MR, Moradkhani H, Jung WI. 2010. Combined Effect of Global Climate Projection and Hydrologic Model Uncertainties on the Future Changes of Streamflow. ASCE Conference Proceedings 371, 10. DOI: 10.1061/41114(371)10.
    • (2010) ASCE Conference Proceedings , vol.371 , pp. 10
    • Najafi, M.R.1    Moradkhani, H.2    Jung, W.I.3
  • 39
    • 0020178893 scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation
    • Nemec J, Schaake J. 1982. Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation. Hydrological Sciences Journal 27(3): 327-343.
    • (1982) Hydrological Sciences Journal , vol.27 , Issue.3 , pp. 327-343
    • Nemec, J.1    Schaake, J.2
  • 40
    • 0001020829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representing uncertainties in climate change scenarios: a Monte Carlo approach
    • New M, Hulme M. 2000. Representing uncertainties in climate change scenarios: a Monte Carlo approach. Integrated Assessment 1: 203-213.
    • (2000) Integrated Assessment , vol.1 , pp. 203-213
    • New, M.1    Hulme, M.2
  • 42
    • 0026299469 scopus 로고
    • A serial approach to local stochastic weather models
    • Racsko P, Szeidl L, Semenov M. 1991. A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecological Modelling 57: 27-41.
    • (1991) Ecological Modelling , vol.57 , pp. 27-41
    • Racsko, P.1    Szeidl, L.2    Semenov, M.3
  • 44
    • 84863869992 scopus 로고
    • Developing Climate Scenarios from Equilibrium GCM results. Report No. 47, Max Planck-Institut-für-Meteorologie, Hamburg
    • Santer BD, Wigley TML, Schlesinger ME, Mitchell JFB. 1990. Developing Climate Scenarios from Equilibrium GCM results. Report No. 47, Max Planck-Institut-für-Meteorologie, Hamburg; 29.
    • (1990) , pp. 29
    • Santer, B.D.1    Wigley, T.M.L.2    Schlesinger, M.E.3    Mitchell, J.F.B.4
  • 45
    • 0030619730 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of Stochastic Weather Generator in the Development of Climate Change Scenarios
    • Semenov MA, Barrow EM. 1997. Use of Stochastic Weather Generator in the Development of Climate Change Scenarios. Climatic Change 35: 397-414.
    • (1997) Climatic Change , vol.35 , pp. 397-414
    • Semenov, M.A.1    Barrow, E.M.2
  • 46
    • 0032516937 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in diverse climates
    • Semenov MA, Brooks RJ, Barrow EM, Richardson CW. 1998. Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in diverse climates. Climate Research 10: 95-107.
    • (1998) Climate Research , vol.10 , pp. 95-107
    • Semenov, M.A.1    Brooks, R.J.2    Barrow, E.M.3    Richardson, C.W.4
  • 49
    • 0003223756 scopus 로고
    • Tank model
    • Singh VP (ed.). Water Resource Publication, Littleton, Co.: Colorado
    • Sugawara M. 1995. Tank model. In Computer models of watershed hydrology, Singh VP (ed.). Water Resource Publication, Littleton, Co.: Colorado; 165-214.
    • (1995) Computer models of watershed hydrology , pp. 165-214
    • Sugawara, M.1
  • 50
    • 0040199608 scopus 로고
    • Publication EUR 15745 EN of the Office for Official Publications of the EU: Luxembourg.
    • Supit I. 1994. Global radiation. Publication EUR 15745 EN of the Office for Official Publications of the EU: Luxembourg.
    • (1994) Global radiation
    • Supit, I.1
  • 52
    • 14544287376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles
    • Tebaldi C, Smith RL, Nychka D, Mearns LO. 2005. Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles. Journal of Climate 18: 1524-1540.
    • (2005) Journal of Climate , vol.18 , pp. 1524-1540
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Smith, R.L.2    Nychka, D.3    Mearns, L.O.4
  • 53
    • 78149409635 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate nonstationarity-Validity of calibrated rainfall-runoff models for use in climate change studies
    • Vaze J, Post DA, Chiew FHS, Perraud JM, Viney NR, Teng J. 2011. Climate nonstationarity-Validity of calibrated rainfall-runoff models for use in climate change studies. Journal of Hydrology 394(3-4): 447-457.
    • (2011) Journal of Hydrology , vol.394 , Issue.3-4 , pp. 447-457
    • Vaze, J.1    Post, D.A.2    Chiew, F.H.S.3    Perraud, J.M.4    Viney, N.R.5    Teng, J.6
  • 55
    • 0024784830 scopus 로고
    • Anticipating the Frequency Distributions of Precipitation if Climate Change Alters its Mean
    • Waggoner PE. 1989. Anticipating the Frequency Distributions of Precipitation if Climate Change Alters its Mean. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 47: 321-337.
    • (1989) Agriculture and Forest Meteorology , vol.47 , pp. 321-337
    • Waggoner, P.E.1
  • 56
    • 77954806061 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust adaptation to climate change
    • DOI: 10.1002/wea.543.
    • Wilby RL, Dessai S. 2010. Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather 65: 180-185. DOI: 10.1002/wea.543.
    • (2010) Weather , vol.65 , pp. 180-185
    • Wilby, R.L.1    Dessai, S.2
  • 57
    • 33645749499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK
    • DOI: 10.1029/2005WR004065.
    • Wilby RL, Harris I. 2006. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 42: W02419. DOI: 10.1029/2005WR004065.
    • (2006) Water Resources Research , vol.42
    • Wilby, R.L.1    Harris, I.2
  • 59
    • 0031412203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations
    • Wilby RL, Wigley TML. 1997. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography 21: 530-548.
    • (1997) Progress in Physical Geography , vol.21 , pp. 530-548
    • Wilby, R.L.1    Wigley, T.M.L.2
  • 60
    • 0002956653 scopus 로고
    • Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate changes studies
    • Wilks DS. 1992. Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate changes studies. Climate Change 22: 67-84.
    • (1992) Climate Change , vol.22 , pp. 67-84
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 61
    • 0033429287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Weather Generation Game: A Review of Stochastic Weather Models
    • Wilks DS, Wilby RL. 1999. The Weather Generation Game: A Review of Stochastic Weather Models, Progress in Physical Geography 23(3): 329-357.
    • (1999) Progress in Physical Geography , vol.23 , Issue.3 , pp. 329-357
    • Wilks, D.S.1    Wilby, R.L.2
  • 62
    • 0034652663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation and generalization of radiation based methods for calculating evaporation
    • Xu CY, Singh VP. 2000. Evaluation and generalization of radiation based methods for calculating evaporation. Hydrological Processes 14: 339-3349.
    • (2000) Hydrological Processes , vol.14 , pp. 339-3349
    • Xu, C.Y.1    Singh, V.P.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.