New orders of durable goods don't forecast shipments

Business Economics

Volumn 46, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 88-98

  Bachman, Daniel ^a  

^a IHS Center for Forecasting and Modeling   (United States)

Author keywords

economic data; forecasting; manufacturing

Indexed keywords

EID: 84863791602     PISSN: 0007666X     EISSN: 1554432X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1057/be.2011.7     Document Type: Article

References (8)

1. Bureau of the Census. 1963. Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1947-1963 (Revised), Washington, D.C.
2. Carlson, John A. 1973. "The Production Lag." American Economic Review, 63(1): 73-88.
3. Clark, Todd E., and Michael McCracken. 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence." Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 38(5): 1127-48.
4. Clark, Todd E., and Michael McCracken. 2007. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Federal Reserve Board (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43).
5. Conference Board, 2001. Business Cycle Indicators Handbook. New York.
6. Diebold, Francis, and Roberto Mariano. 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(3): 253-65.
7. Jones, Christopher, and Selale Tuzel. 2009. New Orders and Asset Prices, Manuscript, September.
8. Zarnowitz, Victor. 1973. Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis. Columbia University Press.