A chaotically driven model climate: Extreme events and snapshot attractors

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

Volumn 18, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 573-580

  Bodai T ^a   Karolyi, Gy ^b   Tel T ^a  

^a EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY   (Hungary)

^b BUDAPEST UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMICS   (Hungary)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CIRCULATION MODELING; CLIMATE MODELING; EXTREME EVENT; WEIBULL THEORY;

EID: 84863483349     PISSN: 10235809     EISSN: 16077946     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/npg-18-573-2011     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Altmann, E. G. and Kantz, H.: Recurrence time analysis, longterm correlations, and extreme events, Phys. Rev. E, 71, 056106, doi:10.1103/ PhysRevE.71.056106, 2005.
2. Arnold, L.: Random Dynamical Systems, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1998.
3. Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Sienz, F.: Extreme event return times in long-term memory processes near 1/f, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 557-565, doi:10.5194/npg-15-557-2008, 2008.
4. B́odai, T., Ḱarolyi, G., and T́el, T.: Fractal snapshot components in chaos induced by strong noise, Phys. Rev. E, 83, 046201, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.83.046201, 2011.
5. Bunde, A., Eichner, J. F., Havlin, S., and Kantelhardt, J. W.: Return intervals of rare events in records with long-term persistence, Physica A, 342, 308-314, 2004.
6. Chekroun, M. D., Simonnet, E., and Ghil, M.: Stochastic climate dynamics: Random attractors and time-dependent invariant measures, http://adsabs.harvard. edu/abs/2010EGUGA. .1213469G, 2-7 May 2010.
7. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values, Springer, London, 2001.
8. Embrecht, P., Klüppelberg, C., and Mikosch, T.: Modeling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer, 1997.
9. Freire, J. G., Bonatto, C., DaCamara, C. C., and Gallas, J. A. C.: Multistability, phase diagrams, and intransitivity in the Lorenz-84 low-order atmospheric circulation model, Chaos, 18, 033121, doi:10.1063/1.2953589, 2008.
10. Ghil, M. and Jiang, N.: Recent forecast skill for the El Nĩno/Southern Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 171-174, 1998.
11. Ghil, M., Chekroun, M. D., and Simonnet, E.: Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties, Physica D, 327, 2111-2126, 2008.
12. Jacobs, J., Ott, E., Antonsen, T., and Yorke, J.: Modeling fractal entrainment sets of tracers advected by chaotic temporally irregular fluid flows using random maps, Physica D, 110, 1-17, 1997.
13. Ledrappier, F. and Young, L.-S.: Dimension formula for random transformations, Commun. Math. Phys., 117, 529-548, 1988.
14. Lorenz, E. N.: Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963.
15. Lorenz, E. N.: Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere, Tellus A, 36A, 98-110, 1984.
16. Neufeld, Z. and T́el, T.: Advection in chaotically time-dependent open flows, Phys. Rev. E, 57, 2832-2842, 1998.
17. Nicolis, C. and Nicolis, G.: Memory effects in recurrent and extreme events, Phys. Rev. E, 80, 061119, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.061119, 2009.
18. Nicolis, C., Balakrishnan, V., and Nicolis, G.: Extreme Events in Deterministic Dynamical Systems, Phys. Rev. Lett., 97, 210602, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.97.210602, 2006.
19. Palmer, T. N.: Extended-Range Atmospheric Prediction and the Lorenz Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 49-65, 1993.
20. Provenzale, A. and Balmford, N. J.: Chaos and Structures in Geophysics and Astrophysics, Woods Hole lecture notes, available from: http://www.whoi.edu/ fileserver.do?id=21476&pt=10&p= 17353, 1999.
21. Roebber, P. J.: Climate variability in a low-order coupled atmosphere-ocean model, Tellus A, 47, 473-494, 1995.
22. Romeiras, F., Grebogi, C., and Ott, E.: Multifractal properties of snapshot attractors of random maps, Phys. Rev. A, 41, 784-799, 1990.
23. Shil'nikov, A., Nicolis, G., and Nicolis, C.: Bifurcation and predictability analysis of a low-order atmospheric circulation model, Int. J. Bif. Chaos, 5, 1701-1711, 1995.
24. Sommerer, J. C. and Ott, E.: Particles floating on a miving fluid: a dynamically comprehensive physical fractal, Science, 259, 335-339, 1993.
25. T́el, T. and Gruiz, M.: Chaotic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, New York, 190 pp., 2006.
26. Wilks, D. S.: Effects of stochastic parametrization on conceptual climate models, Philos. T. R. Soc. A., 366, 2475-2488, 2008.