Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic- hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts

Acta Meteorologica Sinica

Volumn 26, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 93-102

  Bao, Hongjun ^a,b   Zhao, Linna ^a,b  

^a NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER   (China)

^b NATIONAL SATELLITE METEOROLOGICAL CENTER   (China)

Author keywords

Ensemble flood forecast; Flood diversion and retarding; Huaihe River; One dimensional unsteady flow model; TIGGE ensemble predictions; Xinanjiang model

Indexed keywords

DISCHARGE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FLOOD FORECASTING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; UNSTEADY FLOW; WATER BUDGET; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CHINA; HUAI RIVER;

EID: 84863416495     PISSN: 08940525     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0109-0     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Bao Hongjun, 2009: Coupling EPS-hydrologic-hydraulic model for flood forecasting. Ph. D. Dissertation, Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China, 23-50, 131-148. (in Chinese)
2. Bao Hongjun, and L. N. Zhao, 2011: Hydraulic model with roughness coefficient updating method based on Kalman filter for channel flood forecast. Water Science and Engineering, 4(1), 13-23, doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2011.01.002.
3. Bao Hongjun, Li Zhijia, and Wang Lili, 2007: Study of flood forecasting for upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 38(S1), 440-448. (in Chinese)
4. Bao Hongjun, 2008: Real-time flood forecasting of complex channel combined with flood diversion and flood retarding areas. Proceedings of the First International Conference of Modeling and Simulation, 1, 288-194.
5. Bao Hongjun, 2009: Real-time flood forecasting for complex watershed with flood diversion and food retarding areas. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 28(4), 5-12. (in Chinese)
6. Bao Hongjun, L. L. Wang, Z. J. Li, et al., 2010: Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xinanjiang model. Water Science and Engineering, 3(2), 121-131, doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2010.02.001.
7. Bao Hongjun, L.-N. Zhao, Y. He, et al., 2011a: Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with the Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast. Adv. Geosci., 29, 61-67, doi: 10.5194/adgeo-29-61-2011.
8. Bao Hongjun, Zhao Linna, and Li Zhijia, 2011b: Hydraulic model for flood forecast of river basin with flood diversion and flood retarding areas of Huaihe River. Journal of Lake Science, 23(4), 635-641. (in Chinese)
9. Buizza, R., 2008: The value of probabilistic prediction. Atmospheric Science Letters Special Issue. HEPEX Workshop, Stresa, Italy, June 2008, 9, 36-42.
10. Cloke, H. L., and F. Pappenberger, 2008: Evaluating forecasts for extreme events for hydrological applications: An approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures. Meteorological Applications, 15(1), 181-197.
11. Cloke, H. L., and F. Pappenberger, 2009: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. J. Hydrol., 375, 613-626.
12. Chow, V. T., 1959: Open-Channel Hydraulics. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1-50
13. Cloke, H. L., D. R. Maidmentand, and L. W. Mays, 1988: Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York, 451-485.
14. Demeritt, D., H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, et al., 2007: Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environmental Hazards, 7(2), 115-127.
15. DKKV, 2004: Flood Risk Reduction in Germany. Lessons Learned from the 2002 Disaster in the Elbe Region. Summary of the Study. Deutsches Komitee fuer Katastrophen vorsorge (DKKV) (German Committee for Disaster Reduction). Publication 29e. Bonn.
16. Goswami, M., K. O'Connor, and K. Bhattarai, 2007: Development of regionalisation procedures using a multi-model approach for flow simulation in an ungauged catchment. J. Hydrol., 333(2-4), 517-531.
17. He, Y., F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke, et al., 2009: Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorological Applications (Special Issue: Flood Forecasting and Warning), 16(1), 91-101.
18. He, Y., H. J. Bao, et al., 2010: Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi: 10.1002/asl.270.
19. Huaihe River Commission, Ministry of Water Resources of China, 1999: Atlas of Huaihe River Basin. Science Press, Beijing, China, 1-10.
20. Hydrological Bureau of the Ministry of Water Resource of China and the Yangtze River Commission, 2010: Handbook of Hydrological Prediction Techniques. China Water Power Press, Beijing, 516-522. (in Chinese)
21. Krzysztoofwicz, R., 1999: Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model. Water Resource Res., 35(9), 2739-2750.
22. Li, Z. J., H. J. Bao, C. S. Xue, et al., 2008: Realtime flood forecasting of Huaihe River with flood diversion and retarding areas. Water Science and Engineering, 1(2), 10-24, doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2008.02.002.
23. Park, Y. Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2007: TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. ECMWF TM 548, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF), Reading, UK.
24. Parker, D., and M. Fordham, 1996: Evaluation of flood forecasting, warning and response systems in the European Union. Water Resource Management, 10, 279-302.
25. Penning-Rowsell, E., S. Tunstall, S. Tapsell, et al., 2000: The benefits of flood warnings: Real but elusive, and politically significant. J. Chart. Inst. Water Environ. Manage., 14, 7-14.
26. Pitt, M., 2007: Learning Lessons from the 2007 floods: An independent review by Sir Michael Pitt. Interim report, London, UK, 1-15.
27. Roulin, E., 2006: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 1369-1406.
28. Van Berkom, F., C. van de Watering, K. de Gooijer, et al., 2007: Inventory of Flood Information Systems in Europe-A study of available systems in Western, Central-and Eastern Europe. INTERREG IIIC Network Flood Awareness and Prevention Policy in Border Areas'(FLAPP), the Netherlands, 1-30.
29. Von Storch, H., and F. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 12-58.
30. Wu, X. L., C. H. Wang, X. Chen, et al., 2008: Kalman filtering correction in real-time forecasting with a hydronamic model. Journal of Hydrodynamics, 20(3), 391-397.
31. Xu Jingwen, Zhang Wanchang, Zheng Ziyan, et al., 2012: Establishment of a hybrid rainfall-runoff model for use in the Noah LSM. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(1), 85-92, doi: 10.1007/s13351-012-0108-1.
32. Xue, J. S., and Y. Liu, 2007: Numerical weather prediction in China in the new century-Progress, problems and prospects. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24(6), 1099-1108.
33. Zhang, W. C., J. W. Xu, Y. H. Liu, et al., 2009: A catchment level early flood warning approach by using grand-ensemble weather predictions: Verification and application for a case study in the Linyi Catchment, Shangdong, China. TIGGE-B poster session, Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TTISS), Monterey, California, 14-18 September 2009.
34. Zhao, R. J., 1992: The Xinanjiang model applied in China. J. Hydrol., 135, 371-381.
35. Zhao, R. J., and X. R. Liu, 1995: The Xinanjiang model. Computer Models of Catchment Hydrology, V. P. Singh, Ed., Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch Colo., 215-232.
36. Zhuang, S. Y., Q. L. Wan, G. F. Zhu, et al., 2005: GRAPES 3DVAR and its preliminary application on remote sensing data assimilation. Proceedings of the IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium 2005, IGARSS'05, 141-147.