Understanding the crude oil price: How important is the China factor?

Energy Journal

Volumn 32, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 69-92

  Mu, Xiaoyi ^a   Ye, Haichun ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF DUNDEE   (United Kingdom)

^b SHANGHAI UNIVERSITY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84863320009     PISSN: 01956574     EISSN: None     Source Type: Trade Journal    
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No4-4     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Ashley, Richard, and Haichun Ye (2010). "On the Granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion." Working paper, Department of Economics at Virginia Tech University.
2. Bai, J. and P. Perron (1998). "Testing for and Estimation of Multiple Structural Changes", Econometrica 66: 47-79.
3. BBC (2008). "Oil Price May Hit $200 a Barrel", May 7, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7387203.stm (accessed Sep 10, 2010)
4. Clark, Todd, and Michael McCracken (2001). "Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models." Journal of Econometrics 105(1): 85-110. (Pubitemid 33645287)
5. Clark, Todd, and Kenneth West (2006). "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis." Journal of Econometrics 135(1-2): 155-186. (Pubitemid 44376455)
6. Clark, Todd, and Kenneth West (2007). "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models." Journal of Econometrics 138(1): 291-311. (Pubitemid 46464000)
7. CNN (2004). "China factor driving oil prices", May 24, 2004, http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/05/24/china.oil.demand/index.html (accessed Sep 15, 2010)
8. Gonclaves, Silvia, and Lutz Killian (2004). "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form." Journal of Econometrics 123(1): 89-120.
9. Granger, Clive, and Paul Newbold (1976). "Forecasting Transformed Series." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 38(2): 189-203.
10. Hamilton, James (2009a). "Understanding Crude Oil Prices." The Energy Journal 30(2): 179-206.
11. Hamilton, James (2009b) "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2009, 215-261
12. Killian, Lutz (2009). "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market" American Economic Review 99(3): 1053-1069.
13. Krichene, Noureddine (2002) "World Crude Oil and Natural Gas: A Demand and Supply Model." Energy Economics, 24(6): 557-576. (Pubitemid 35369056)
14. McCracken, MichaelW. (2007). "Asymptotics for Out of Sample Tests of Granger Causality." Journal of Econometrics 140(2): 719-752.
15. Smith, James (2009). "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(3): 145-164.
16. US Congressional Budget Office (2006). "China's Growing Demand for Oil and Its Impact of U.S. Petroleum Markets". http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/ 71xx/doc7128/04-07-ChinaOil.pdf (accessed Sep 13, 2010)