Intraseasonal predictability of Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon and its interdecadal variability

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 1773-1778

  Chang, Chih Pei ^a,b   Lu, Mong Ming ^c  

^a NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^b NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL   (United States)

^c CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

Arctic Oscillation; Interdecadal variability; Intraseasonal variability; Monsoons; Seasonal forecasting; Winter cool season

Indexed keywords

ARCTIC OSCILLATION; INTER-DECADAL VARIABILITY; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY; MONSOONS; SEASONAL FORECASTING; WINTER/COOL SEASON;

CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GASES;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS;

ARCTIC OSCILLATION; DECADAL VARIATION; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS; MONSOON; PREDICTION; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING; WINTER;

SIBERIA;

EID: 84863261697     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00500.1     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Chan, J. C. L., and C. Li, 2004: The East Asia winter monsoon. East Asian Monsoon, C.-P. Chang, Ed., World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia, Vol. 2, World Scientific, 54-106.
2. Chang, C.-P., C.-H. Liu, and H.-C. Kuo, 2003: Typhoon Vamei: An equatorial tropical cyclone formation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1150, doi:10.1029/2002GL016365.
3. Chang, C.-P., P. A. Harr, and H.-J. Chen, 2005: Synoptic disturbances over the equatorial South China Sea and western Maritime Continent during boreal winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 489-503.
4. Chang, C.-P., Z. Wang, and H. Hendon, 2006: The Asian winter monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Springer, 89-127.
5. Chang, C.-P., M.-M. Lu, and B. Wang, 2011: The East Asian winter monsoon. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, C.-P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 5, World Scientific, 99-109.
6. Choi, D.-H., J.-S. Kug, W.-T. Kwon, F.-F. Jin, H.-J. Baek, and S.-K. Min, 2010: Arctic Oscillation responses to greenhouse warming and role of synoptic eddy feedback. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D17103, doi:10.1029/2010JD014160.
7. Ding, Y. H., 1994: Monsoons over China. Atmospheric Sciences Library, Vol. 16, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 432 pp.
8. Ding, Y. H., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 1987: Heat budget of the Siberian high and the winter monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2428-2449.
9. Ding, Y. H., and X. Ma, 2007: Analysis of isentropic potential vorticity for a strong cold wave in 2004/2005 winter. Acta Meteor. Sin., 65, 695-707.
10. Gong, D.-Y., and C.-H. Ho, 2004: Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 131-144.
11. Gong, D.-Y., S.-W.Wang, and J.-H. Zhu, 2001: East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2073-2076, doi:10.1029/2000GL012311.
12. Goswami, B. N., M. C. Wheeler, J. C. Gottschalck, and D. E. Waliser, 2011: Intraseasonal variability and forecasting: A review of recent research. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, C.-P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 5, World Scientific, 389-408.
13. Hori, M. E., D. Nohara, and H. L. Tanaka, 2007: Influence of Arctic Oscillation towards the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature variability under the global warming scenario. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 847-859.
14. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
15. Kang, I. S., and H. M. Kim, 2011: Intraseasonal prediction and predictability for boreal winter. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, C.-P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 5, World Scientific, 409-419.
16. Krishnamurti, T. N., A. K. Mitra, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, W. T. Yun, and W. K. Dewar, 2006: Seasonal climate forecasts of the South Asian monsoon using multiple coupled models. Tellus, 58A, 487-507, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00184.x.
17. Lu, M.-M., and C.-P. Chang, 2009: Unusual late-season cold surges during the 2005 Asian winter monsoon: Roles of Atlantic blocking and central Asian anticyclone. J. Climate, 22, 5205-5217.
18. Luo, D., 2005: Why is the North Atlantic block more frequent and long-lived during the negative NAO phase? Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20804, doi:10.1029/2005GL022927.
19. Park, T.-W., T. Won, C.-H. Ho, and S. Yang, 2011: Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and cold surges over East Asia. J. Climate, 24, 68-83.
20. Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 2005a: Geographical dependence of upper-level blocking formation associated with intraseasonal amplification of the Siberian high. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 4441-4449.
21. Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 2005b: Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the cold Siberian high. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 4423-4440.
22. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2001: Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science, 293, 85-89.
23. Tibaldi, S., and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A, 343-365.
24. Trenberth, K. E., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 235-336.
25. Wang, B., and Coauthors, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 93-117, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.
26. Wang, L., W. Chen, W. Zhou, J. C. L. Chan, D. Barriopedro, and R. Huang, 2010: Effect of the climate shift around mid 1970s on the relationship between wintertime Ural blocking circulation and East Asian climate. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 153-158, doi:10.1002/joc.1876.
27. Wang, Z.-Y., and Y.-H. Ding, 2006: Climate change of the cold wave frequency of China in the last 53 years and possible reasons. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30, 1068-1076.
28. Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.
29. Wu, A., W. W. Hsieh, G. J. Boer, and F. W. Zwiers, 2007: Changes in the Arctic Oscillation under increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12701, doi:10.1029/2007GL029344.
30. Wu, B., and J. Wang, 2002: Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1897, doi:10.1029/2002GL015373.
31. Wu, R., J. L. Kinter III, and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Discrepancy of interdecadal changes in the Asian region among the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, objective analyses, and observations. J. Climate, 18, 3048-3067.
32. Yang, S., K.-M. Lau, and K.-M. Kim, 2002: Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies. J. Climate, 15, 306-325.
33. Yang, S., K.-M. Lau, Z. Zhang, V. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, S.-H. Yoo, J. Liang, and Y. Fan, 2008: Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 21, 3755-3775.