메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 44, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 103-144

The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates

Author keywords

Exchange rate forecast; Interval forecasting; Meese Rogoff puzzle; Taylor rule model

Indexed keywords


EID: 84863068321     PISSN: 00222879     EISSN: 15384616     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00470.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (27)

References (62)
  • 1
    • 20844443512 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability
    • Abhyankar, Abhay, Lucio Sarno, and Giorgio Valente (2005) "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability. Journal of International Economics, 66, 325-48.
    • (2005) Journal of International Economics , vol.66 , pp. 325-348
    • Abhyankar, A.1    Sarno, L.2    Valente, G.3
  • 2
    • 84863048987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates." Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 361.
    • Adrian, Tobias, Erkko Etula, and Hyun Song Shin (2009) "Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates." Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 361.
    • (2009)
    • Adrian, T.1    Etula, E.2    Shin, H.S.3
  • 3
    • 38949094959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conventional and Unconventional Models Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment
    • Alquist, Ron, and Menzie Chinn (2008) "Conventional and Unconventional Models Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment. International Journal of Finance and Economy, 13, 2-13.
    • (2008) International Journal of Finance and Economy , vol.13 , pp. 2-13
    • Alquist, R.1    Chinn, M.2
  • 5
    • 85099272104 scopus 로고
    • Rational Expectations and the Exchange Rate
    • edited by Jacob Frenkel and Harry Johnson Reading, MA : Addison-Wesley.
    • Bilson, John. (1978) "Rational Expectations and the Exchange Rate." In The Economics of Exchange Rates: Selected Studies, edited by Jacob Frenkel and Harry Johnson, pp. 75-96. Reading, MA : Addison-Wesley.
    • (1978) The Economics of Exchange Rates: Selected Studies , pp. 75-96
    • Bilson, J.1
  • 6
    • 1842810906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Performance of SETAR Models: A Regime Conditional Evaluation of Point, Interval and Density Forecasts
    • Boero, Gianna, and Emanuela Marrocu (2004) "The Performance of SETAR Models: A Regime Conditional Evaluation of Point, Interval and Density Forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 305-20.
    • (2004) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 305-320
    • Boero, G.1    Marrocu, E.2
  • 7
    • 84883952675 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?
    • University of Washington, and Virginia Tech.
    • Chen, Yu-chin, and Kwok Ping Tsang (2009) "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability? Manuscript, University of Washington, and Virginia Tech.
    • (2009) Manuscript
    • Chen, Y.-c.1    Tsang, K.P.2
  • 8
    • 58249083330 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates
    • Chinn, Menzie. (2008) "Nonlinearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates. Economics Notes, 37, 219-39.
    • (2008) Economics Notes , vol.37 , pp. 219-239
    • Chinn, M.1
  • 9
    • 0001126361 scopus 로고
    • Banking on Currency Forecasts: How Predictable Is Change in Money?
    • Chinn, Menzie, and Richard A. Meese (1995) "Banking on Currency Forecasts: How Predictable Is Change in Money? Journal of International Economics, 38, 161-78.
    • (1995) Journal of International Economics , vol.38 , pp. 161-178
    • Chinn, M.1    Meese, R.A.2
  • 11
    • 26444438686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Accuracy of Density Forecasts from Foreign Exchange Options
    • Christoffersen, Peter F., and Stefano Mazzotta (2005) "The Accuracy of Density Forecasts from Foreign Exchange Options. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 3, 578-605.
    • (2005) Journal of Financial Econometrics , vol.3 , pp. 578-605
    • Christoffersen, P.F.1    Mazzotta, S.2
  • 12
    • 0031670190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence
    • Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (1998) "Monetary Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence. European Economic Review, 42, 1033-67.
    • (1998) European Economic Review , vol.42 , pp. 1033-1067
    • Clarida, R.1    Gali, J.2    Gertler, M.3
  • 13
    • 0031475350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors
    • Clarida, Richard, and Mark Taylor (1997) "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, 353-61.
    • (1997) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.89 , pp. 353-361
    • Clarida, R.1    Taylor, M.2
  • 14
    • 0037403873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond
    • Clarida, Richard, Lucio Sarno, Mark Taylor, and Giorgio Valente (2003) "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond. Journal of International Economics, 60, 61-83.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 61-83
    • Clarida, R.1    Sarno, L.2    Taylor, M.3    Valente, G.4
  • 15
    • 33748618701 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis
    • Clark, Todd, and Kenneth D. West (2006) "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics, 135, 155-86.
    • (2006) Journal of Econometrics , vol.135 , pp. 155-186
    • Clark, T.1    West, K.D.2
  • 16
    • 33947513916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models
    • Clark, Todd, and Kenneth D. West (2007) "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models. Journal of Econometrics, 138, 291-311.
    • (2007) Journal of Econometrics , vol.138 , pp. 291-311
    • Clark, T.1    West, K.D.2
  • 17
    • 33747888495 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests
    • Corradi, Valentina, and Norman Swanson (2006a) "Predictive Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests. Journal of Econometrics, 135, 187-228.
    • (2006) Journal of Econometrics , vol.135 , pp. 187-228
    • Corradi, V.1    Swanson, N.2
  • 18
    • 67649342374 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive Density Evaluation
    • edited by Elliott, Graham, Clive Granger, and Allan Timmerman. Amsterdam : Elsevier.
    • Corradi, Valentina, and Norman Swanson (2006b) "Predictive Density Evaluation." In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edited by Elliott, Graham, Clive Granger, and Allan Timmerman Amsterdam : Elsevier.
    • (2006) Handbook of Economic Forecasting
    • Corradi, V.1    Swanson, N.2
  • 19
    • 33846910900 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes
    • Corradi, Valentina, and Norman Swanson (2007) "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes. International Economic Review, 48, 67-109.
    • (2007) International Economic Review , vol.48 , pp. 67-109
    • Corradi, V.1    Swanson, N.2
  • 20
    • 63749092830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models
    • Della Corte, Pasquale, Lucio Sarno, and Ilias Tsiakas (2009) "An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models. Review of Financial Studies, 22, 3491-530.
    • (2009) Review of Financial Studies , vol.22 , pp. 3491-3530
    • Corte, D.1    Pasquale, L.S.2    Tsiakas, I.3
  • 21
    • 0347623647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management
    • Diebold, Francis X., Todd A. Gunther, and Anthony S. Tay (1998) "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management. International Economic Review, 39, 863-83.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 863-883
    • Diebold, F.X.1    Gunther, T.A.2    Tay, A.S.3
  • 22
    • 0040715916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration in Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns of Foreign Exchange
    • Diebold, Francis X., Jinyong Hahn, and Anthony S. Tay (1999) "Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration in Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns of Foreign Exchange. Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 661-73.
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , pp. 661-673
    • Diebold, F.X.1    Hahn, J.2    Tay, A.S.3
  • 23
    • 65649087577 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?
    • Diez de los Rios, Antonio. (2009) "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41, 755-66.
    • (2009) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.41 , pp. 755-766
    • Diez de los Rios, A.1
  • 25
    • 84863075526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-Horizon Forecasts of Asset Prices when the Discount Factor is close to Unity." Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 36.
    • Engel, Charles, Jian Wang, and Jason J. Wu (2009) "Long-Horizon Forecasts of Asset Prices when the Discount Factor is close to Unity." Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 36.
    • (2009)
    • Engel, C.1    Wang, J.2    Wu, J.J.3
  • 26
    • 21044437667 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rates and Fundamentals
    • Engel, Charles, and Kenneth D. West (2005) "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals. Journal of Political Economy, 113, 485-517.
    • (2005) Journal of Political Economy , vol.113 , pp. 485-517
    • Engel, C.1    West, K.D.2
  • 27
    • 33747075817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate
    • Engel, Charles, and Kenneth D. West (2006) "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38, 1175-94.
    • (2006) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.38 , pp. 1175-1194
    • Engel, C.1    West, K.D.2
  • 28
    • 77956114789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar
    • May.
    • Engel, Charles, and Kenneth D. West (2010) "Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May.
    • (2010) American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings
    • Engel, C.1    West, K.D.2
  • 29
  • 30
    • 0000634137 scopus 로고
    • A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence
    • Frenkel, Jacob. (1976) "A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78, 200-24.
    • (1976) Scandinavian Journal of Economics , vol.78 , pp. 200-224
    • Frenkel, J.1
  • 31
    • 77957239083 scopus 로고
    • Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates
    • edited by G. Grossman and K. Rogoff. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
    • Froot, Kenneth, and Kenneth Rogoff (1995) "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates." In Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, edited by G. Grossman and K. Rogoff Amsterdam: Elsevier.
    • (1995) Handbook of International Economics , vol.3
    • Froot, K.1    Rogoff, K.2
  • 32
    • 33750536645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability
    • Giacomini, Raffaella, and Halbert White (2006) "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability. Econometrica, 74, 1545-78.
    • (2006) Econometrica , vol.74 , pp. 1545-1578
    • Giacomini, R.1    White, H.2
  • 33
    • 0033710835 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon
    • Groen, Jan J. (2000) "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon. Journal of International Economics, 52, 299-319.
    • (2000) Journal of International Economics , vol.52 , pp. 299-319
    • Groen, J.J.1
  • 34
    • 22544458181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel
    • Groen, Jan J. (2005) "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 37, 495-516.
    • (2005) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , vol.37 , pp. 495-516
    • Groen, J.J.1
  • 37
    • 34848897170 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can the Random Walk Be Beaten in Out-of-Sample Density Forecasts: Evidence from Intraday Foreign Exchange Rates
    • Hong, Yongmiao, Haitao Li, and Feng Zhao (2007) "Can the Random Walk Be Beaten in Out-of-Sample Density Forecasts: Evidence from Intraday Foreign Exchange Rates. Journal of Econometrics, 141, 736-76.
    • (2007) Journal of Econometrics , vol.141 , pp. 736-776
    • Hong, Y.1    Li, H.2    Zhao, F.3
  • 38
  • 40
    • 0033445337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?
    • Kilian, Lutz. (1999) "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14, 491-510.
    • (1999) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.14 , pp. 491-510
    • Kilian, L.1
  • 41
    • 0037403617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rate?
    • Kilian, Lutz, and Mark Taylor (2003) "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rate? Journal of International Economics, 60, 85-107.
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , pp. 85-107
    • Kilian, L.1    Taylor, M.2
  • 42
    • 84863073869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule." Ohio State University Department of Economics Working Paper No. 09-03.
    • Kim, Hyeongwoo, and Masao Ogaki (2009) "Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule." Ohio State University Department of Economics Working Paper No. 09-03.
    • (2009)
    • Kim, H.1    Ogaki, M.2
  • 43
    • 38149146963 scopus 로고
    • The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Short-Run Dynamics, and How to Beat a Random Walk
    • MacDonald, Ronald, and Mark P. Taylor (1994) "The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Short-Run Dynamics, and How to Beat a Random Walk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 13, 276-90.
    • (1994) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.13 , pp. 276-290
    • MacDonald, R.1    Taylor, M.P.2
  • 44
    • 0001413344 scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability
    • Mark, Nelson C. (1995) "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability. American Economic Review, 85, 201-18.
    • (1995) American Economic Review , vol.85 , pp. 201-218
    • Mark, N.C.1
  • 45
    • 68949128999 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics
    • Mark, Nelson C. (2009) "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 41, 1047-70.
    • (2009) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , vol.41 , pp. 1047-1070
    • Mark, N.C.1
  • 46
    • 0035154184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nominal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel
    • Mark, Nelson, and Donggyu Sul (2001) "Nominal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel. Journal of International Economics, 53, 29-52.
    • (2001) Journal of International Economics , vol.53 , pp. 29-52
    • Mark, N.1    Sul, D.2
  • 47
    • 33846907054 scopus 로고
    • Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit Out-of-Sample?
    • Meese, Richard A., and Kenneth Rogoff (1983) "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit Out-of-Sample? Journal of International Economics, 14, 3-24.
    • (1983) Journal of International Economics , vol.14 , pp. 3-24
    • Meese, R.A.1    Rogoff, K.2
  • 48
  • 50
    • 61349143051 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals
    • Molodtsova, Tanya, and David H. Papell (2009) "Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals. Journal of International Economics, 77, 167-80.
    • (2009) Journal of International Economics , vol.77 , pp. 167-180
    • Molodtsova, T.1    Papell, D.H.2
  • 51
    • 0000634139 scopus 로고
    • The Exchange Rate, the Banlance of Payment, and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating
    • Mussa, Michael. (1976) "The Exchange Rate, the Banlance of Payment, and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78, 229-48.
    • (1976) Scandinavian Journal of Economics , vol.78 , pp. 229-248
    • Mussa, M.1
  • 52
    • 84863077282 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Generalization." International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 948, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
    • Nason, James, and John Rogers (2008) "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Generalization." International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 948, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
    • (2008)
    • Nason, J.1    Rogers, J.2
  • 53
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix
    • Newey, Whitney K., and Kenneth D. West (1987) "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55, 703-08.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 55
    • 84863026295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting." NBER Working Paper No. 14071.
    • Rogoff, Kenneth S., and Vania Stavrakeva (2008) "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting." NBER Working Paper No. 14071.
    • (2008)
    • Rogoff, K.S.1    Stavrakeva, V.2
  • 56
    • 27544480220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping
    • Romano, Joseph P., and Michael Wolf (2005) "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping. Econometrica, 74, 1237-82.
    • (2005) Econometrica , vol.74 , pp. 1237-1282
    • Romano, J.P.1    Wolf, M.2
  • 57
    • 27744590844 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing Long-horizon Predictive Ability with High Persistence, and the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle
    • Rossi, Barbara. (2005) "Testing Long-horizon Predictive Ability with High Persistence, and the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle. International Economic Review, 46, 61-92.
    • (2005) International Economic Review , vol.46 , pp. 61-92
    • Rossi, B.1
  • 58
    • 13944268861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk: Some Evidence from Density Forecasts
    • Sarno, Lucio, and Giorgio Valente (2005) "Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk: Some Evidence from Density Forecasts. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24, 363-85.
    • (2005) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.24 , pp. 363-385
    • Sarno, L.1    Valente, G.2
  • 59
    • 70349826257 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?
    • Sarno, Lucio, and Giorgio Valente (2009) "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship? Journal of the European Economic Association, 7, 786-830.
    • (2009) Journal of the European Economic Association , vol.7 , pp. 786-830
    • Sarno, L.1    Valente, G.2
  • 60
    • 38249000331 scopus 로고
    • A Utility-based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility
    • West, Kenneth D., Hali J. Edison, and Dongchul Cho (1993) "A Utility-based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of International Economics, 35, 23-45.
    • (1993) Journal of International Economics , vol.35 , pp. 23-45
    • West, K.D.1    Edison, H.J.2    Cho, D.3
  • 61
    • 0000028873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Reality Check for Data Snooping
    • White, Halbert. (2000) "A Reality Check for Data Snooping. Econometrica, 68, 1097-1126.
    • (2000) Econometrica , vol.68 , pp. 1097-1126
    • White, H.1
  • 62
    • 85135801906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Semiparametric Forecast Intervals
    • Forthcoming
    • Wu, Jason J. (Forthcoming) "Semiparametric Forecast Intervals. Journal of Forecasting.
    • Journal of Forecasting
    • Wu, J.J.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.