Prediction of daily lightning- and human-caused fires in British Columbia

International Journal of Wildland Fire

Volumn 21, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 342-356

  Magnussen, S ^a   Taylor, S W ^a  

^a PACIFIC FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

Author keywords

cross validation; logistic model; piecewise linear model; running average; zero truncated Poisson

Indexed keywords

EID: 84863003932     PISSN: 10498001     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1071/WF11088     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Anderson K (2002) A model to predict lightning-caused fire occurrences. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11(4), 163-172. doi:10.1071/WF02001
2. Andrews PL, Loftsgaarden DO, Bradshaw LS (2003) Evaluation of fire danger rating indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12(2), 213-226. doi:10.1071/WF02059
3. Barrows JS (1951) Forest fires in the northern Rocky Mountains. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Research Paper RM-28. (Missoula, MT)
4. Beverly JL, Martell DL (2005) Characterizing extreme fire and weather events in the Boreal Shield ecozone of Ontario. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 133(1-4), 5-16. doi:10.1016/J.AGRFORMET. 2005.07.015
5. Bruce D (1963) How many fires? Fire Control Notes 24(2), 45-51.
6. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) 'Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-theoretic Approach.' 2 edn (Springer: New York)
7. BurrowsWR(2008) Dynamical-statistical models for lightning prediction to 48-hr over Canada and the United States. In '20th Lightning Detection Conference', 21-23 April 2008, Tucson, AZ. (CD-ROM) (Royal Meteorological Society)
8. Burrows WR, King P, Lewis PJ, Kochtubajda B, Snyder B, Turcotte V (2002) Lightning occurrence patterns over Canada and adjacent United States from lightning detection network observations. Atmosphere-Ocean 40, 59-80. doi:10.3137/AO.400104
9. Burrows WR, Price C, Wilson LJ (2005) Warm season lightning probability prediction for Canada and the northern United States. Weather and Forecasting 20, 971-988. doi:10.1175/WAF895.1
10. Collins BM, Omi PN, Chapman PL (2006) Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the Interior West, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36(3), 699-709. doi:10.1139/X05-264
11. Crosby JS (1954) Probability of fire occurrence can be predicted. USDA Forest Service, Central States Forest Experiment Station, Technical Paper 143. (Columbus, OH)
12. Cunningham AA, Martell DL (1973) A stochastic model for the occurrence of man-caused forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 3, 282-287. doi:10.1139/X73-038
13. Dale MRT, Fortin MJ (2002) Spatial autocorrelation and statistical tests in ecology. Ecoscience 9(2), 162-167.
14. Davidian M, Giltinan DM (2003) Non-linear models for repeated measurement data: An overview and update. Journal of Agricultural Biological & Environmental Statistics 8(4), 387-419. doi:10.1198/1085711032697
15. Deeming JE, Burgan RE, Cohen JD (1978) The National Fire-Danger Rating System-1978. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. General Technical Report INT-39. (Ogden, UT)
16. Draper NR, Smith H (1981) 'Applied Regression Analysis.' (Wiley: New York)
17. Drever CR, Drever MC, Messier C, Bergeron Y, Flannigan M (2008) Fire and the relative roles of weather, climate and landscape characteristics in the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest of Canada. Journal of Vegetation Science 19(1), 57-66. doi:10.3170/2007-8-18313
18. Flannigan MG, Wotton BM, Todd B, Cameron H, Logan K (2002) Climate change implications in British Columbia: Assessing past, current and future fire occurrence and fire severity in BC. Canadian Forest Service and British Columbia Ministry of Forests. (Victoria, BC)
19. Garcia Diez A, Rivas Soriano L, Garcia Diez EL (1996) Medium-range forecasting for the number of daily forest fires. Journal of Applied Meteorology 35(5), 725-732. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1996)035,0725: MRFFTN.2.0.CO;2
20. Gilbert DE, Zala C (1987) A reliability study of the lightning-locating network in British Columbia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 17(9), 1060-1065. doi:10.1139/X87-162
21. Gillis MD, Omule AY, Brierley T (2005) Monitoring Canada's forests: the National Forest Inventory. Forestry Chronicle 81(2), 214-221.
22. Girardin MP, WottonBM(2009) Summer moisture and wildfire risks across Canada. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48(3), 517-533. doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1996.1
23. Gralewicz NJ, Nelson TA, WulderMA(2011) Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire ignitions in Canada from 1980 to 2006. International Journal of Wildland Fire. [Published online ahead of print 20 December 2011]. doi:10.1071/WF10095
24. Haines D, Main W, Frost J, Simard A (1983) Fire-danger rating and wildfire occurrence in the north-eastern United States. Forest Science 29(4), 679-696.
25. Hall BL (2007) Precipitation associated with lightning-ignited wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16(2), 242-254. doi:10.1071/WF06075
26. Hall BL (2008) Fire ignitions related to radar reflectivity patterns in Arizona and New Mexico. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17(3), 317-327. doi:10.1071/WF06110
27. Hong F, Liping D, Wenli Y, Bonnlander B, Xiaoyan L (2007) Use of binary logistic regression technique with MODIS data to estimate wild fire risk. Proceedings of the Society for Photo-Instrumentation Engineers 6786, 67863L. doi:10.1117/12.774737
28. Johnston J, DiNardo J (1997) 'Econometric Methods', 4 edn. (McGraw-Hill: New York)
29. Kalnay E, KanamitsuM, Kistler R, CollinsW, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G,Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3), 437-471. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077,0437: TNYRP.2.0.CO;2
30. Kourtz PH, Todd JB (1991) Predicting the daily occurrence of lightningcaused forest fires. Forestry Canada, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Information Report PI-X-112. (Chalk River, ON)
31. Larsen CPS (1996) Fire and climate dynamics in the boreal forest of northern Alberta, Canada, from AD 1850 to 1989. The Holocene 6(4), 449-456. doi:10.1177/095968369600600407
32. Lee BS, Alexander ME, Hawkes BC, Lynham TJ, Stocks BJ, Englefield P (2002) Information systems in support of wildland fire management decision-making in Canada. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 37(1-3), 185-198. doi:10.1016/S0168-1699(02)00120-5
33. Luke RH, McArthur AG (1978) 'Bushfires in Australia.' (Australian Government Publishing Service: Canberra)
34. Mandallaz D, Ye R (1997) Prediction of forest fires with Poisson models. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 27(10), 1685-1694. doi:10.1139/X97-103
35. Martell DL, Otukol S, Stocks BJ (1987)Alogistic model for predicting daily people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 17(5), 394-401. doi:10.1139/X87-068
36. Martell DL, Bevilacqua E, Stocks BJ (1989) Modelling seasonal variation in daily people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 19(12), 1555-1563. doi:10.1139/X89-237
37. Martínez J, Vega-Garcia C, Chuvieco E (2009) Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain. Journal of Environmental Management 90(2), 1241-1252. doi:10.1016/J.JENVMAN. 2008.07.005
38. Meyn A, Schmidtlein S, Taylor SW, Girardin MP, Thonicke K, Cramer W (2010) Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920-2000. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(3), 272-283. doi:10.1071/WF09055
39. Moore RD, Spittlehouse D,Whitfield P, Stahl K (2010)Weather and climate. In 'Compendium of Forest Hydrology and Geomorphology in British Columbia'. (Eds RG Pike, TE Redding, RD Moore, RD Winkler, KD Bladon) Land Management Handbook 66, pp. 47-84. (BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Forest Science Program: Victoria, BC; and FORREX Forumfor Research and Extension in Natural Resources: Kamloops, BC)
40. Nepstad D, Moreira A, Veríssimo A, Lefebvre P, Schlesinger P, Potter C, Nobre C, Setzer A, Krug T, Barros AC, Alencar A, Pereira JR (1998) Forest fire prediction and prevention in the Brazilian Amazon. Conservation Biology 12(5), 951-953.
41. Noggle RC, Krider EP, Vance DL, Barker KB (1976) A lightning directionfinding system for forest fire detection. In 'The 4th National Conference Fire and Forest Meteorology', 16-18 November 1976, St Louis, MO. (Eds DH Baker, MA Fosber) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, General Technical Report RM-32, pp. 31-36. (Fort Collins, CO)
42. O'Neill TJ (1994) The bias of estimating equations with application to the error rate of logistic discrimination. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 1492-1500. doi:10.2307/2291011
43. Peng RD, Schoenberg FP, Woods JA (2005) A space-time conditional intensity model for evaluating a wildfire hazard index. Journal of the American Statistical Association 100(469), 26-35. doi:10.1198/016214504000001763
44. Podur J, WottonM(2010) Will climate change overwhelmfire management capacity? Ecological Modelling 221(9), 1301-1309. doi:10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2010. 01.013
45. Podur JJ, Martell DL, Stanford D (2010) A compound Poisson model for the annual area burned by forest fires in the province of Ontario. Environmetrics 21(5), 457-469.
46. Preisler HK, Brillinger D, Burgan RE, Benoit JW (2004) Probability-based models for estimation of wildfire risk. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13, 133-142. doi:10.1071/WF02061
47. Prestemon JP, Abt K, GebertK(2008) Suppression cost forecasts in advance of wildfire seasons. Forest Science 54(4), 381-396.
48. Rorig ML, Ferguson SA (1999) Characteristics of lightning and wildfire ignition in the Pacific North-west. Journal of Applied Meteorology 38, 1565-1575. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038,1565:COLAWF. 2.0.CO;2
49. Rorig ML, McKay SJ, Ferguson SA, Werth P (2007) Model-generated predictions of dry thunderstorm potential. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46, 605-614. doi:10.1175/JAM2482.1
50. Ruppert D, Wand M, Carroll RJ (2003) 'Semiparametric Regression.' (Cambridge University Press: New York)
51. Schabenberger O, Gregoire TG (1996) Population-averaged and subjectspecific approaches for clustered categorical data. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 54, 231-253. doi:10.1080/ 00949659608811730
52. Siljander M (2009) Predictive fire occurrence modelling to improve burned area estimation at a regional scale: A case study in East Caprivi, Namibia. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 11(6), 380-393. doi:10.1016/J.JAG.2009.06.004
53. Stefanski LA, Carroll RJ (1985) Covariate measurement error in logistic regression. Annals of Statistics 13(4), 1335-1351. doi:10.1214/AOS/1176349741
54. Stocks BJ (1983) Forest fire weather and wildfire occurrence in the boreal forest of north-western Ontario. In 'Conference on Resources and Dynamics of the Boreal Zone', 23-26 August 1982, Thunder Bay, ON. (EdsRWWein, RR Riewe, IR Methven) pp. 249-265. (Association of Canadian Universities for Northern Studies: Ottawa, ON)
55. Taylor SW, Alexander ME (2006) Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15(1), 121-135. doi:10.1071/WF05021
56. Taylor SW, Stennes B, Wang S, Taudin-Chabot P (2006) Integrating Canadian wildland fire policy and institutions: sustaining natural resources, communities and ecosystems. In 'Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: Background Syntheses, Analyses, and Perspectives.' (Eds KG Hirsch, P Fuglem) pp. 3-26. (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers: Ottawa, ON)
57. Todd JB, KourtzPH(1991) Predicting the daily occurrence of people-caused forest fires. Forestry Canada, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Information Report PI-X103. (Chalk River, ON)
58. Toth Z,Desmarais J-G, BrunetG, Zhu Y,Verret R,Wobus R,Hogue R, CuiB (2005) The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). Geophysical Research Abstracts 7, 02501.
59. Vadrevu KP, Eaturu A, Badarinath KVS (2010) Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis -a case study. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 166(1-4), 223-239. doi:10.1007/S10661-009-0997-3
60. Van Wagner CW (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forest Service Forest Technical Report 35. (Ottawa, ON)
61. Vilar L, Woolford DG, Martell DL, MartnMP(2010)Amodel for predicting human-caused wildfire occurrence in the region of Madrid, Spain. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(3), 325-337. doi:10.1071/WF09030
62. Wang Y, Flannigan M, Anderson K (2010) Correlations between forest fires in British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Ecological Modelling 221(1), 122-129. doi:10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2008.12.007
63. Woodall CW, Charney JJ, Liknes GC, Potter BE (2005) What is the fire danger now? Linking fuel inventories with atmospheric data. Journal of Forestry 103(6), 293-298.
64. Wotton BM, Martell DL (2005) A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35(6), 1389-1401. doi:10.1139/X05-071
65. Wotton BM, Martell DL, Logan KA (2003) Climate change and peoplecaused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Climatic Change 60, 275-295. doi:10.1023/A:1026075919710