Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: Combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach

Ecological Applications

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 1365-1388

  Notaro, Michael ^a   Mauss, Adrien ^b   Williams, John W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b MÉTÉO FRANCE   (France)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic envelope model; Biodiversity; Climate change; Dynamic global vegetation model; Southwest United States

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; BIODIVERSITY; BIOLOGICAL INVASION; CLIMATE MODELING; EVERGREEN FOREST; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GRASS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SHRUB; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; VEGETATION COVER;

BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLASSIFICATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; METHODOLOGY; PLANT; POPULATION DYNAMICS; REVIEW; TIME; UNITED STATES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PLANTS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES; TIME FACTORS;

ARIZONA; COLORADO; NEW MEXICO; SONORAN DESERT; UNITED STATES; UTAH;

POACEAE;

EID: 84862976128     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/11-1269.1     Document Type: Review

References (148)

1. Achuta Rao, K., and K. R. Sperber. 2006. ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better? Climate Dynamics 27:1-15. (Pubitemid 43744796)
2. Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Loarie, W. K. Cornwell, S. B. Weiss, H. Hamilton, R. Branciforte, and N. J. B. Kraft. 2010. The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions 16:476-487.
3. Adams, D. K., and A. C. Comrie. 1997. The North American monsoon. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:2197-2213.
4. Anderson, R. S. 1993. A 35, 000 year vegetation and climate history from Potato Lake, Mogollon Rim, Arizona. Quaternary Research 40:351-359. (Pubitemid 24398203)
5. Andrade, E. R., Jr., and W. Sellers. 1988. El Niño and its effect on precipitation in Arizona and western New Mexico. Journal of Climatology 8:403-410.
6. Araujo, M. B., and A. Guisan. 2006. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33:1677-1688. (Pubitemid 44370084)
7. Araujo, M. B., R. G. Pearson, W. Thuiller, and M. Erhard. 2005. Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology 11:1504-1513. (Pubitemid 43898772)
8. Archer, S. R., and K. I. Predick. 2008. Climate change and ecosystems of the Southwestern United States. Rangelands June 2008:23-28.
9. Bachelet, D., R. P. Neilson, T. Hickler, R. J. Drapek, L. M. Lenihan, M. T. Sykes, B. Smith, S. Sitch, and K. Thornicke. 2003. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17(2):1045.
10. Bartlein, P. J., K. H. Anderson, M. E. Edwards, C. J. Mook, R. S. Thompson, R. S. Webb, T. Webb III, and C. Whitlock. 1998. Paleoclimate simulations for North America over the past 21, 000 years: Features of the simulated climate and comparisons with paleoenvironmental data. Quaternary Science Reviews 17:549-585. (Pubitemid 28343913)
11. Bartlein, P. J., I. C. Prentice, and T. Webb III. 1986. Climatic response surfaces from pollen data for some eastern North American taxa. Journal of Biogeography 13:35-57. (Pubitemid 17244187)
12. Bates, C. G. 1923. Physiological requirements of Rocky Mountain trees. Journal of Agricultural Research 24:97-154.
13. Betancourt, J., D. Breshears, and P. Mulholland. 2004. Ecological impacts of climate change. Report from a NEON Science Workshop, 24-25 August 2004, Tucson, Arizona, USA. American Institute of Biological Sciences, Washington, D. C., USA.
14. Bowers, J. E. 1981. Catastrophic freezes in the Sonoran Desert. Desert Plants 2:232-236.
15. Breshears, D., et al. 2005. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102:15144-15148. (Pubitemid 41513349)
16. Carter, R. 2003. Climate, forest management stoke Western wildfires. Climate Assessment for the Southwest. University of Arizona, Phoenix, Arizona, USA. www.climas.arizona.edu/features-articles/april-2003
17. Cayan, D. R., T. Das, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, M. Tyree, and A. Gershunov. 2010. Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107:21271-21276.
18. Christensen, J. H., et al. 2007. Regional Climate Projections. Chapter 11 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
19. Coblentz, D. D., and K. H. Riitters. 2004. Topographic controls on the regional-scale biodiversity of the southwestern USA. Journal of Biogeography 31:1125-1138. (Pubitemid 38791322)
20. Cole, K. L., K. Ironside, J. Eischeid, G. Garfin, P. B. Duffy, and C. Toney. 2011. Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction. Ecological Applications 21:137-149.
21. Colwell, R. K., and T. F. Rangel. 2009. Hutchinson's duality: the once and future niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2009:19651-19658.
22. Cook, E. R., D. M. Meko, D. W. Stahle, and M. K. Cleaveland. 2004. North American summer PDSI reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series number 2004-045. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
23. Cook, E. R., C. A. Woodhouse, C. M. Eakin, D. M. Meko, and D. W. Stahle. 2004. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306:1015-1018. (Pubitemid 39482901)
24. Davis, M. B. 1981. Quaternary history and the stability of forest communities. Pages 132-153 in D. C. West, H. H. Shugart, and D. B. Botkin, editors. Forest succession: concepts and application. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
25. Davis, O. K. 1994. The correlation of summer precipitation in the southwestern U. S. A. with isotopic records of solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period. Climatic Change 26:271-287.
26. 2 and soil water availability. Global Change Biology 9:452-460. (Pubitemid 36386559)
27. Diaz-Delgado, R., F. Lloret, X. Pons, and J. Terradas. 2002. Satellite evidence of decreasing resilience in Mediterranean plant communities after recurrent wildfires. Ecology 83:2293-2303. (Pubitemid 36524766)
28. Dick-Peddie, W. A. 1993. New Mexico vegetation: past, present, and future. University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
29. Dobrowski, S. Z. 2010. A climatic basis for microrefugia: The influence of terrain on climate. Global Change Biology 17:1022-1035.
30. Dominguez, F., J. Cañon, and J. Valdes. 2010. IPCC-AR4 climate simulations for the Southwestern US: the importance of future ENSO projections. Climatic Change 99:499-514.
31. Ehleringer, J., S. Schwinning, and R. Gebauer. 1999. Water use in arid land ecosystems. Pages 347-365 in M. Press, editor. Advances in plant physiological ecology. Blackwell Science, Oxford, UK.
32. Elith, J., et al. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-151.
33. Elith, J., S. J. Phillips, T. Hastle, M. Dudlk, Y. E. Chee, and C. J. Yates. 2011. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions 17:43-57.
34. Fall, P. L. 1997. Timberline fluctuations and late Quaternary paleoclimates in the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado. Geological Society of America Bulletin 109:1306-1320.
35. FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations]. 1991. The digitized soil map of the world (release 1.0). FAO, Rome, Italy.
36. Fawcett, P. J., et al. 2011. Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials. Nature 470:518-521.
37. Felger, R. S., and M. F. Wilson. 1995. Northern Sierra Madre Occidental and its Apachian outliers: a neglected center of biodiversity. Pages 36-51 in L. F. Debano, P. F. Ffolliott, A. Ortega-Rubio, G. J. Gottfried, R. H. Hamre, and C. B. Edminster, technical coordinators. Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago: the sky islands of southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, 19-23 September 1995, Tucson, Arizona, USA. General Technical Report RM-GTR-264. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
38. Fielding, A. H., and J. F. Bell. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24:38-49. (Pubitemid 27376840)
39. 2. Global Change Biology 10:1223-1239. (Pubitemid 39052117)
40. Gerten, D., S. Schaphoff, U. Haberlandt, W. Lucht, and S. Sitch. 2004. Terrestrial vegetation and water balance: hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology 286:249-270. (Pubitemid 38211237)
41. Gerten, D., S. Schaphoff, and W. Lucht. 2007. Potential future changes in water limitation of the terrestrial biosphere. Climatic Change 80:277-299. (Pubitemid 46183455)
42. Giorgi, F., and L. O. Mearns. 2002. Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method". Journal of Climate 15:1141-1158. (Pubitemid 34657989)
43. Gonzalez, P., R. P. Neilson, J. M. Lenihan, and R. J. Drapek. 2010. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19:755-768.
44. Gutzler, D. S., D. M. Kann, and C. Thornbrugh. 2002. Modulation of ENSO-based long-lead outlooks of Southwestern U. S. winter precipitation by the Pacific decadal oscillation. Weather and Forecasting 17:1163-1172. (Pubitemid 36302904)
45. Harrison, S. P., J. E. Kutzbach, Z. Liu, P. J. Bartlein, B. Otto-Bliesner, D. Muhs, I. C. Prentice, and R. S. Thompson. 2003. Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: A dynamical response to changed seasonality. Climate Dynamics 20:663-688. (Pubitemid 36762009)
46. Hellmers, H., M. K. Genthe, and F. Ronco. 1970. Temperature affects growth and development of Engelmann spruce. Forest Science 16:447-452.
47. Herbel, C. H., F. N. Ares, and R. A. Wright. 1972. Drought effects on a semidesert grassland range. Ecology 53:1084-1093.
48. Higgins, R. W., K. C. Mo, and Y. Yao. 1998. Interannual variability of the U. S. summer precipitation regime with emphasis on the southwestern monsoon. Journal of Climate 11:2582-2606. (Pubitemid 29121286)
49. Hosmer, D. W., and S. Lemeshow. 2000. Applied logistic regression. Second edition. John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, USA.
50. Huntley, B., P. Barnard, R. Altwegg, L. Chambers, B. W. T. Coetzee, L. Gibson, P. A. R. Hockey, D. G. Hole, G. F. Midgley, and S. G. Willis. 2010. Beyond bioclimatic envelopes: Dynamic species' range and abundance modelling in the context of climatic change. Ecography 31:621-626.
51. Huntley, B., and H. J. B. Birks. 1983. An atlas of past and present maps for Europe: 0-13000 years ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
52. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. 2000. IPCC Special Report. Emissions Scenarios. A special report of IPCC Working Group III. N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart, editors. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0
53. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. 2007. Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, editors. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
54. Joyce, L., J. Aber, S. McNulty, V. Dale, A. Hansen, L. Irland, R. Neilson, and K. Skog. 2001. Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the forests of the United States. Pages 489-522 in National Assessment Synthesis Team. Climate change impacts on the United States: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report for the U. S. Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
55. Joyce, L. A., G. M. Blake, J. S. Littell, S. G. McNulty, C. I. Millar, S. C. Moser, R. P. Neilson, K. O'Halloran, and D. L. Peterson. 2008. National forests. Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. Pages 3-1-3-127 in S. H. Julius and J. M. West, editors. U. S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U. S. EPA Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., USA. www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps/sap4-4
56. Kimball, S., A. L. Angert, T. E. Huxman, and D. L. Venable. 2010. Contemporary climate change in the Sonoran Desert favors cold-adapted species. Global Change Biology 16:1555-1565.
57. Klocke, D., R. Pincus, and J. Quaas. 2011. On constraining estimates of climate sensitivity with present-day observations through model weighting. Journal of Climate 24:6092-6099.
58. 2 responses: an issue of definition, time and resource supply. New Phytologist 172:393-411. (Pubitemid 44571070)
59. Kumar, S., and T. J. Stohlgren. 2009. Maxent modeling for predicting suitable habitat for threatened and endangered tree Canacomyrica monticola in New Caledonia. Journal of Ecology and Natural Environment 1:94-98.
60. Leathers, D. J., B. Yarnal, and M. A. Palecki. 1991. The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern and United States climate. Part I: Regional temperature and precipitation associations. Journal of Climate 4:517-528.
61. Ledig, F. T., G. E. Rehfeldt, C. Saenz-Romero, and C. Flores-Lopez. 2010. Projections of suitable habitat for rare species under global warming scenarios. American Journal of Botany 97:970-987.
62. Legates, D. R. 1991. An evaluation of procedures to estimate monthly precipitation probabilities. Journal of Hydrology 122:129-140.
63. Li, W., Z. Wang, Z. Ma, and H. Tang. 1997. A regression model for the spatial distribution of red-crown crane in Yancheng Biosphere Reserve, China. Ecological Modelling 103:115-121.
64. Lin, J.-L., B. L. Mapes, K. M. Weickman, G. N. Kikalis, S. D. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, J. T. Bacmeister, and M.-I. Lee. 2008. North American monsoon and convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs. Journal of Climate 21:2919-2937.
65. Lloret, F., D. Siscart, and C. Dalmases. 2004. Canopy recovery after drought dieback in holm-oak Mediterranean forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Global Change Biology 10:2092-2099. (Pubitemid 40015008)
66. Loarie, S. R., B. E. Carter, K. Hayhoe, S. McMahon, R. Moe, C. A. Knight, and D. D. Ackerly. 2008. Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora. PLoS ONE 3:e2502.
67. Loarie, S. R., P. B. Duffy, H. Hamilton, G. P. Asner, C. B. Field, and D. D. Ackerly. 2009. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052-1055.
68. Loehle, C., and D. Le Blanc. 1996. Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests: a critical review. Ecological Modelling 90:1-31.
69. Loik, M., S. Redar, and J. Harte. 2000. Photosynthetic responses to a climate warming Manipulation for contrasting meadow species in the Rocky Mountains, U. S. A. Functional Ecology 14:166-175. (Pubitemid 30597074)
70. Lucht, W., I. C. Prentice, R. B. Myneni, S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, W. Cramer, P. Bousquet, and B. Smith. 2002. Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and Pinatubo effect. Science 296:1687-1689. (Pubitemid 34579166)
71. Lucht, W., S. Schaphoff, T. Erbrecht, U. Heyder, and W. Cramer. 2006. Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change. Carbon Balance Management 1:6, doi: 10.1186/1750-0680-1-6 (Pubitemid 46736794)
72. Mbogga, M. S., X. Wang, and A. Hamann. 2010. Bioclimate envelope model predictions for natural resource management: dealing with uncertainty. Journal of Applied Ecology 47:731-740.
73. McDonald, J. E. 1956. Variability of precipitation in an arid region: a survey of characteristics for Arizona. Technical Reports on the Meteorology and Climatology of Arid Regions, number 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
74. McKenney, D. W., J. H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, K. Campbell, and M. F. Hutchinson. 2007. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. BioScience 57:939-948. (Pubitemid 351185974)
75. McLachlan, J. S., J. S. Clark, and P. S. Manos. 2005. Molecular indicators of tree migration capacity under rapid climate change. Ecology 86:2088-2098. (Pubitemid 41117479)
76. McLachlan, J. S., J. J. Hellmann, and M. W. Schwartz. 2007. A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conservation Biology 21:297-302. (Pubitemid 46474754)
77. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88:1383-1394. (Pubitemid 47616759)
78. Millar, C. I., N. L. Stephenson, and S. L. Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17:2145-2151. (Pubitemid 351323457)
79. Milly, P. C. D., K. A. Dunne, and A. V. Vecchia. 2005. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438:347-350. (Pubitemid 41643949)
80. Mitchell, T. D., and D. J. Philip. 2005. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology 25:693-712. (Pubitemid 40815726)
81. Mock, C. J., and A. R. Brunelle-Daines. 1999. A modern analogue of western United States summer paleoclimate at 6000 years before present. Holocene 9:541-545. (Pubitemid 29432392)
82. Moir, W. H. 1983. A series vegetation classification for Region 3. Pages 91-95 in W. H. Moir and L. Hendzel, technical coordinators. Proceedings of the workshop on Southwestern habitat types, 6-8 April 1983, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. USDA Forest Service Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
83. Neilson, R. 1993. Transient ecotone response to climatic change: some conceptual and modelling approaches. Ecological Applications 3:385-395. (Pubitemid 24410272)
84. Neilson, R. 2003. The importance of precipitation in controlling vegetation distribution. Pages 47-71 in J. Wetzin and G. McPherson, editors. Changing precipitation regimes and terrestrial ecosystems. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
85. Neilson, R., and L. H. Wullstein. 1983. Biogeography of two southwest American oaks in relation to atmospheric dynamics. Journal of Biogeography 10:275-297. (Pubitemid 15253692)
86. Newman, J. E. 1980. Climate change impacts on the growing season of the North American corn belt. Biometeorology 7:128-142.
87. 2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102:18052-18056. (Pubitemid 41798500)
88. Notaro, M. 2008. Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability. Climate Dynamics 30:845-854.
89. Notaro, M., and D. Gutzler. 2011. Simulated impact of vegetation on climate across the North American monsoon region in CCSM3.5. Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0990-0
90. Notaro, M., Z. Liu, R. G. Gallimore, J. W. Williams, D. S. Gutzler, and S. Collins. 2010. Complex seasonal cycle of ecohydrology in the Southwest United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 115:G04034.
91. Notaro, M., and A. Zarrin. 2011. Sensitivity of the North American monsoon to antecedent Rocky Mountain snowpack. Geophysical Research Letters 38:L17403.
92. 2-Do photosynthetic and productivity data from FACE experiments support early predictions? New Phytologist 162:253-280. (Pubitemid 38503697)
93. Noy-Meir, I. 1973. Desert ecosystems: environment and producers. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4:25-51.
94. Ogle, K., T. G. Whitham, and N. S. Cobb. 2000. Tree-ring variation in pinyon predicts likelihood of death following severe drought. Ecology 81:3237-3243.
95. Pearce, J., and S. Ferrier. 2000. An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 128:127-147. (Pubitemid 30254854)
96. Pearson, R. G. 2006. Climate change and the migration capacity of species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 21:111-113. (Pubitemid 43327281)
97. Pearson, R. G., and T. P. Dawson. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: Are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12:361-371.
98. Periman, R., C. Dawe, B. Rickel, A. Unthank, C. Green, R. Jemison, K. Nelson, B. Kent, J. Triepke, E. W. Taylor, and Y. Begay. 2009. Southwestern region climate change trends and forest planning. A guide for addressing climate change in forest plan revision on southwestern national forests and grasslands. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
99. Phillips, S. J., R. P. Anderson, and R. E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190:231-259. (Pubitemid 41680650)
100. Poore, R. Z., M. J. Pavich, and H. D. Grissino-Mayer. 2005. Record of the North American southwest monsoon from Gulf of Mexico sediment cores. Geology 33:209-212. (Pubitemid 40413059)
101. Prentice, I. C., A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, S. P. Harrison, T. Hickler, W. Lucht, S. Sitch, B. Smith, and M. T. Sykes. 2007. Dynamic global vegetation modelling: quantifying terrestrial ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change. Chapter 15, pages 175-192 in J. G. Canadell, D. E. Pataki, and L. F. Pitelka, editors. Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
102. Prentice, I. C., W. Cramer, S. P. Hariison, R. Leemans, R. A. Monserud, and A. M. Solomon. 1992. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography 19:117-34. (Pubitemid 23396200)
103. Quiring, S. M., and G. B. Goodrich. 2008. Nature and causes of the 2002 to 2004 drought in the southwestern United States compared with the historic 1953 to 1957 drought. Climate Research 36:41-52. (Pubitemid 351566251)
104. Rehfeldt, G. E., N. L. Crookston, M. V. Warwell, and J. S. Evans. 2006. Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the Western United States. International Journal of Plant Science 167:1123-1150. (Pubitemid 44954466)
105. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert. 1986. North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly Weather Review 114:2352-2362.
106. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert. 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115:1606-1626.
107. Schaphoff, S., W. Lucht, D. Gerten, S. Sitch, W. Cramer, and I. C. Prentice. 2006. Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections. Climatic Change 74:97-122. (Pubitemid 43760473)
108. Scholze, M., W. Knorr, N. W. Arnell, and I. C. Prentice. 2006. A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 103:13116-13120. (Pubitemid 44338925)
109. Schulman, E. 1956. Dendroclimatic change in semiarid America. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
110. Seager, R., et al. 2007. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316:1181-1184. (Pubitemid 46877478)
111. Seager, R., and G. A. Vecchi. 2010. Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107:21277-21282.
112. Shafer, S. L., P. J. Bartlein, and R. S. Thompson. 2001. Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios. Ecosystems 4:200-215. (Pubitemid 32516206)
113. Shreve, F. 1911. The influence of low temperatures on the distribution of the giant cactus. Plant World 14:136-146.
114. Shreve, F. 1942. The desert vegetation of North America. Botanical Review 8:195-246.
115. Sitch, S., B. Smith, I. C. Prentice, A. Arneth, A. Bondeauu, W. Cramer, J. O. Kaplan, S. Lewis, W. Lucht, M. T. Sykes, K. Thonicke, and S. Venesky. 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology 9:161-185. (Pubitemid 36294628)
116. Solomon, S., et al. 2007. Technical Summary. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, editors. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
117. Stein, B. A. 2002. States of the Union: ranking America's biodiversity. Report prepared for The Nature Conservancy. NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia, USA. natureserve.org/library/stateofunions.pdf
118. Stephenson, D. B., K. Rupa Kumar, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, J. F. Royer, F. Chauvin, and S. Pezzulli, editors. 1999. Extreme daily rainfall events forecasts of the Indian Monsoon. Monthly Weather Review 127:1954-1966.
119. Swetnam, T. W., and J. L. Betancourt. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climate variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate 11:3128-3147. (Pubitemid 29223893)
120. Swets, J. A. 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240:1285-1293.
121. Tallis, J. H. 1991. Plant community history. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
122. Tang, M., and E. R. Reiter. 1984. Plateau monsoons of the Northern Hemisphere: a comparison between North America and Tibet. Monthly Weather Review 112:617-637.
123. Thompson, R. S., K. H. Anderson, and P. J. Bartlein. 1999. Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America. U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1650 A&B. USGS Informatino Services, Denver Federal Center, Denver, Colorado, USA. gec.cr.usgs.gov/data/atlas
124. Thompson, R. S., S. W. Hostetler, P. J. Bartlein, and K. H. Anderson. 1998. A strategy for assessing potential future change in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the western United States. USGS Circular 1153. U. S. Geological Survey, Washington, D. C., USA.
125. Thompson, R. S., C. Whitlock, P. J. Bartlein, S. P. Harrison, and W. G. Spaulding. 1993. Climate changes in the western United States since 18, 000 yr B. P. Pages 468-513 in H. E. Wright, Jr., J. E. Kutzbach, T. Webb III, W. F. Ruddiman, F. A. Street, and P. J. Bartlein, editors. Global climates since the last Glacial Maximum. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
126. Thonicke, K., S. Venevsky, S. Sitch, and W. Cramer. 2001. The role of fire disturbance for Global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10:661-678.
127. Thornthwaite, C. W., and J. R. Mather. 1957. Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance. Publications in Climatology X (3): 185-311. Drexel Institute of Technology, Centerton, New Jersey, USA.
128. Thuiller, W., L. Brotons, M. B. Araujo, and S. Lavorel. 2004. Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 27:165-172. (Pubitemid 38497933)
129. Thuiller, W., S. Lavorel, and M. B. Araujo. 2005. Niche properties and geographic extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14:347-357. (Pubitemid 40974471)
130. Trisurat, Y., R. Alkemade, and E. Arets. 2009. Projecting forest tree distributions and adaptation to climate change in northern Thailand. Journal of Ecology and Natural Environment 1:55-63.
131. Turnage, W. V., and A. K. Hinkley. 1938. Freezing weather in relation to plant distribution in the Sonoran Desert. Ecological Monographs 9:530-550.
132. Van Auken, O. W. 2000. Shrub invasions of North American semiarid grasslands. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 31:197-215. (Pubitemid 32122400)
133. van Mantgem, P. J., M. L. Stephenson, J. C. Byrne, L. D. Daniels, J. F. Frenklin, P. Z. Fule, M. E. Harmon, A. J. Larson, J. M. Smith, A. H. Talor, and T. T. Veblen. 2009. Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States. Science 323:521-524.
134. Vasek, F. C. 1980. Creosote bush: long-lived clones in the Mojave Desert. American Journal of Botany 67:246-255.
135. Wagner, W., K. Scipal, C. Pathe, D. Gerten, W. Lucht, and B. Rudolf. 2003. Evaluation of the agreement between the first global remotely sensed soil moisture data with model and precipitation data. Journal of Geophysical Research 108:4611. doi: 10.1029/2003JD003663
136. Warshall, P. 1994. The Madrean sky island archipelago: a planetary overview. Pages 6-18 in L. F. DeBano, P. F. Ffolliott, A. Ortega-Rubio, G. J. Gottfried, R. H. Hamre, and C. B. Edminster, technical coordinators. Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago: the sky islands of southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, 19-23 September 1994, Tucson, Arizona, USA. General Technical Report RM-GTR-264. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs-rm/rm-gtr264.html.
137. Weigel, A. P., R. Knutti, M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller. 2010. Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections. Journal of Climate 23:4175-4191.
138. Weiss, J. L., C. L. Castro, and J. T. Overpeck. 2009. Distinguishing pronounced droughts in the southwestern United States: seasonality and effects of warmer temperatures. Journal of Climate 22:5918-5932.
139. Weiss, J. L., and J. T. Overpeck. 2005. Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool? Global Change Biology 11:2065-2077. (Pubitemid 43904645)
140. Weng, C., and S. T. Jackson. 1999. Late glacial and Holocene vegetation history and paleoclimate of the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 153:179-201. (Pubitemid 29447130)
141. Whittaker, R. H., and W. A. Niering. 1965. Vegetation of the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona: A gradient analysis of the south slope. Ecology 46:429-452.
142. Williams, J. W., and S. T. Jackson. 2007. Novel climates, noanalog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5:475-482. (Pubitemid 350071683)
143. Williams, J. W., S. T. Jackson, and J. E. Kutzbach. 2007. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104:5738-5742. (Pubitemid 47175604)
144. Willmott, C. J., and S. M. Robeson. 1995. Climatologically aided interpolation (CAI) of terrestrial air temperature. International Journal of Climatology 15:221-229.
145. Willmott, C. J., C. M. Rowe, and Y. Mintz. 1985. Climatology of the terrestrial seasonal water cycle. Journal of Climatology 5:589-606.
146. Wisz, M. S., R. J. Hijmans, J. Li, A. T. Peterson, C. H. Graham, A. Guisan, and NCEAS Predicting Species Distributions Working Group. 2008. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions 14:763-773.
147. Yansa, C. H. 2006. The timing and nature of late Quaternary vegetation changes in the northern Great Plains, USA and Canada: A reassessment of spruce phase. Quaternary Science Reviews 25:263-281. (Pubitemid 43190776)
148. Zobler, L. 1986. A world soil file for global climate modelling. NASA Technical Memorandum 87802. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA.