Problems associated with uncertain parameters and missing physics for long-term ionosphere-thermosphere forecasting

Radio Science

Volumn 47, Issue 3, 2012, Pages

  Schunk, R W ^a   Gardner, L ^a   Scherliess, L ^a   Zhu, L ^a  

^a UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA ASSIMILATION MODEL; ERROR PROPAGATION; LONG-TERM FORECAST; LOWER ATMOSPHERE; MULTIPLE DATA TYPES; NUMERICAL TECHNIQUES; PHYSICAL PROCESS; PHYSICS-BASED; PHYSICS-BASED MODELS; SPACE WEATHER; TEMPORAL RESOLUTION; TRANSPORT COEFFICIENT; UNCERTAIN PARAMETERS; UTAH STATE UNIVERSITIES;

DATA PROCESSING; FORECASTING; IONOSPHERE; MAGNETOSPHERE;

IONOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT;

EID: 84862539696     PISSN: 00486604     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011RS004911     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Bailey, G. J., and N. Balan (1996), A low-latitude ionosphere- plasmasphere model, in STEP Handbook of Ionospheric Models, edited byR.W. Schunk, pp. 173-206, Utah State Univ., Logan.
2. Barakat, A. R., and R. W. Schunk (1984), Effect of hot electrons on the polar wind, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 9771-9783, doi:10.1029/JA089iA11p09771.
3. Barakat, A. R., and R. W. Schunk (2006), A three-dimensional model of the generalized polar wind, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A12314, doi:10.1029/ 2006JA011662.
4. Bekerat, H., R. W. Schunk, and L. Scherliess (2007), Estimation of the high-latitude topside electron heat flux using DMSP plasma density measurements, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 69, 1029-1048, doi:10.1016/j. jastp.2007.03.015.
5. Burns, A., T. Killeen, G. Carignan, and R. Roble (1995), Large enhancements in the O/N2 ratio in the evening sector of the winter hemisphere during geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 100(A8), 14,661-14,671, doi:10.1029/94JA03235.
6. Crowley, G., B. Emery, R. Roble, H. Carlson Jr., J. Salah, V. Wickwar, K. Miller, W. Oliver, R. Burnside, and F. Marcos (1989), Thermospheric dynamics during September 18-19, 1984: 2. Validation of the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res., 94(A12), 16,945-16,959, doi:10.1029/JA094iA12p16945.
7. David, M., R. W. Schunk, and J. J. Sojka (2011), The effect of downward electron heat flow and electron cooling processes in the high-latitude ionosphere, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 78, 2399-2409, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2011. 08.009.
8. Fedder, J. A., J. G. Lyon, S. P. Slinker, and C. M. Mobarry (1995), Topological structure of the magnetotail as a function of interplanetary magnetic field direction, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 3613-3621, doi:10.1029/ 94JA02577.
9. Foster, J.-C., et al. (2005), Multiradar observations of the polar tongue of ionization, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S31, doi:10.1029/2004JA010928.
10. Fukui, K., J. Buchau, and C. Valladares (1994), Convection of polar cap patches observed at Qaanaaq, Greenland during the winter of 1989-1990, Radio Sci., 29(1), 231-248, doi:10.1029/93RS01510.
11. Fuller-Rowell, T. J., D. Rees, S. Quegan, R. J. Moffett, M. V. Codrescu, and H. G. Millward (1996), A coupled thermosphere ionosphere model (CTIM), in STEP Handbook of Ionospheric Models, edited by R. W. Schunk, pp. 217-238, Utah State Univ., Logan.
12. Gardner, L. C., and R. W. Schunk (2004), The neutral polar wind, J. Geophys. Res., 109, A05301, doi:10.1029/2003JA010291.
13. Gardner, L. C., and R. W. Schunk (2005), Global neutral polar wind model, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A10302, doi:10.1029/2005JA011029.
14. Hedin, A. (1987), MSIS-86 thermospheric model, J. Geophys. Res., 92(A5), 4649-4662, doi:10.1029/JA092iA05p04649.
15. Heelis, R. A., J. J. Sojka, M. David, and R. W. Schunk (2009), Storm time density enhancements in the middle-latitude dayside ionosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A03315, doi:10.1029/2008JA013690.
16. Huba, J. D., G. Joyce, and J. Krall (2008), Three-dimensional equatorial spread F modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10102, doi:10.1029/2008GL033509.
17. Hysell, D., and J. Burcham (1998), JULIA radar studies of equatorial spread F, J. Geophys. Res., 103(A12), 29,155-29,167, doi:10.1029/98JA02655.
18. Jee, G., A. G. Burns, W. Wang, S. C. Solomon, R. W. Schunk, L. Scherliess, D. C. Thompson, J. J. Sojka, and L. Zhu (2007), Duration of an ionospheric data assimilation initialization of a coupled thermosphere- ionosphere model, Space Weather, 5, S01004, doi:10.1029/2006SW000250.
19. Jee, G., A. G. Burns, W. Wang, S. C. Solomon, R. W. Schunk, L. Scherliess, D. C. Thompson, J. J. Sojka, and L. Zhu (2008), Driving the TING model with GAIM electron densities: Ionospheric effects on the thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A03305, doi:10.1029/2007JA012580.
20. Jenniges, J. V. (2011), Sensitivity analysis of empirical parameters in the Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Model, M.S. thesis, Air Force Inst. of Technol., Dayton, Ohio.
21. Jenniges, J. V., A. O. Acebal, R. W. Schunk, L. C. Gardner, L. Scherliess, D. C. Thopson, and L. Zhu (2010), Uncertainty associated with modeling the global ionosphere, Abstract SA51C-1643 presented at 2010 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 13-17 Dec.
22. Ma, T.-Z., and R. W. Schunk (1995), Effect of polar cap patches on the polar thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 19,701-19,713, doi:10.1029/95JA01122.
23. Millward, G. W., R. J. Moffett, S. Quegan, and T. J. Fuller-Rowell (1996), A coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere Model (CTIP), in STEP Handbook of Ionospheric Models, edited by R. W. Schunk, pp. 239-280, Utah State Univ., Logan.
24. Raeder, J. (1999), Modeling the magnetosphere for northward interplanetary magnetic field: Effects of electrical resistivity, J. Geophys. Res., 104(A8), 17,357-17,367, doi:10.1029/1999JA900159.
25. Rasmussen, C. E., and R. W. Schunk (1988), Multistream hydrodynamic modeling of interhemispheric plasma flow, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 14,557-14,565, doi:10.1029/JA093iA12p14557.
26. Richards, P. G., and D. G. Torr (1996), The field line interhemispheric plasma model, in STEP Handbook of Ionospheric Models, edited by R. W. Schunk, pp. 239-280, Utah State Univ., Logan.
27. Ridley, A. J., Y. Deng, and G. Toth (2006), The global ionospherethermosphere model, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 68, 839-864, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2006.01.008.
28. Roble, R. G. (1996), The NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere- mesosphereelectrodynamics general circulation model (TIMED-GCM), in STEP Handbook of Ionospheric Models, edited by R. W. Schunk, pp. 281-288, Utah State Univ., Logan.
29. Scherliess, L., R. W. Schunk, J. J. Sojka, and D. C. Thompson (2004), Development of a physics-based reduced state Kalman filter for the ionosphere, Radio Sci., 39, RS1S04, doi:10.1029/2002RS002797.
30. Scherliess, L., R. W. Schunk, J. J. Sojka, D. C. Thompson, and L. Zhu (2006), The USU GAIM Gauss-Markov Kalman filter model of the ionosphere: Model description and validation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A11315, doi:10.1029/ 2006JA011712.
31. Scherliess, L., R. W. Schunk, and D. C. Thompson (2011), Data assimilation models: A 'new' tool for ionosphere science and applications, in The Dynamic Magnetosphere, pp. 329-339, Springer, New York, doi:10.1007/978-94- 007-0501-2-18.
32. Schunk, R. W. (1988), A mathematical model of the middle and high latitude ionosphere, Pure Appl. Geophys., 127, 255-303, doi:10.1007/BF00879813.
33. Schunk, R. W., and J. J. Sojka (1989), A three-dimensional time-dependent model of the polar wind, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 8973-8991, doi:10.1029/ JA094iA07p08973.
34. Schunk, R. W., and J. J. Sojka (1997), Global ionosphere-polar wind system during changing magnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 11,625-11,651, doi:10.1029/97JA00292.
35. Schunk, R. W., J. J. Sojka, and M. D. Bowline (1986), Theoretical study of the electron temperature in the high-latitude ionosphere for solar maximum and winter conditions, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 12,041-12,054, doi:10.1029/ JA091iA11p12041.
36. Schunk, R. W., J. J. Sojka, and J. V. Eccles (1997), Expanded capabilities for the ionospheric forecast model, final report, AFRL-VS-HA-TR-98-0001, 142 pp., Air Force Res. Lab., Hanscom Air Force Base, Mass.
37. Schunk, R. W., L. Scherliess, J. J. Sojka, and D. C. Thompson (2004a), USU Global ionospheric data assimilation models, Proc. SPIE, 5548, 327-336, doi:10.1117/12.562448.
38. Schunk, R. W., et al. (2004b), Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM), Radio Sci., 39, RS1S02, doi:10.1029/2002RS002794.
39. Schunk, R., L. Scherliess, J. J. Sojka, D. C. Thompson, and L. Zhu (2005), Ionospheric weather forecasting on the horizon, Space Weather, 3, S08007, doi:10.1029/2004SW000138.
40. Shim, J. S., et al. (2011), CEDAR electrodynamics thermosphere ionosphere (ETI) challenge for systematic assessment of ionosphere/thermosphere models: NmF2, hmF2, and vertical drift using groundbased observations, SpaceWeather, 9, S12003, doi:10.1029/2011SW000727.
41. Siskind, D. E., S. D. Eckermann, L. Coy, J. P. McCormack, and C. E. Randall (2007), On recent interannual variability of the Arctic winter mesosphere: Implications for tracer descent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09806, doi:10.1029/2007GL029293.
42. Sojka, J. J. (1989), Global scale, physical models of the F region ionosphere, Rev. Geophys., 27, 371-403, doi:10.1029/RG027i003p00371.
43. Tóth, G., et al. (2005), Space Weather Modeling Framework: A new tool for the space science community, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A12226, doi:10.1029/2005JA011126.
44. Valladares, C., H. Carlson Jr., and K. Fukui (1994), Interplanetary magnetic field dependency of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs, J. Geophys. Res., 99(A4), 6247-6272, doi:10.1029/93JA03255.