Livestock raiding and rainfall variability in northwestern Kenya

Civil Wars

Volumn 14, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 159-181

  Ember, Carol R ^a   Adem, Teferi Abate ^a   Skoggard, Ian ^a   Jones, Eric C ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84862534600     PISSN: 13698249     EISSN: 1743968X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2012.679497     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. The primary reason for using this time period is the availability of precise rainfall data for 30 square kilometer parcels across the entire Turkana region.
2. see the 'Methods' section for further explanation.
3. Karen M. Witsenburg and Wario R. Adano, 'Of Rain and Raids: Violent Livestock Raiding in Northern Kenya', Civil Wars 11 (2009) pp.514-38.
4. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
5. Michael A. Little, Rada Dyson-Hudson and J.T. McCabe, 'Ecology of South Turkana' in M. Little and P. Leslie (eds) Turkana Herders of the Dry Savanna: Ecology and Biobehavioral Response of Nomads to an Uncertain Environment (Oxford: Oxford UP 1999) p.53.
6. For ecological factors that may cause land use conflicts in Turkana, see, for example, Gufu Oba, 'Ecological Factors in Land Use Conflicts, Land Administration and Food Insecurity in Turkana, Kenya' Pastoral Development Network Papers, No. 33a (London: ODI 1992).
7. Günther Baechler and Kurt R. Spillmann, Environmental Degradation as a Cause of War: Ecological Conflicts in the Third World and Ways for their Resolution, ENCOP Study Vol. I (Zürich: Rüegger 1996).
8. Günther Baechler and Kurt R. Spillmann (eds), Environmental Degradation as a Cause of War: Regional and Country Studies of Research Fellows, ENCOP Study Vol. II (Zürich: Rüegger 1996).
9. Günther Baechler and Kurt R. Spillmann (eds), Environmental Degradation as a Cause of War: Country Studies of External Experts, ENCOP Study Vol. III (Zürich: Rüegger 1996).
10. For a critique, see Nils Petter Gleditsch, 'Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature', Journal of Peace Research 35 (1997) pp.381-400
11. Detlef F. Sprinz, 'Modeling Environmental Conflict' online at , accessed 9 Dec. 2011.
12. See also theories about population pressure in Andrew P. Vayda, 'Hypotheses about Functions of War' in M. Fried, M. Harris, and R. Murphy (eds) The Anthropology of Armed Confict and Aggression (Garden City, NY: Natural History Press 1967) pp.85-91.
13. Andrew P. Vayda, War in Ecological Perspective (New York: Plenum, 1976).
14. Roy A. Rappoport, Pigs for the Ancestors (New Haven, CT: Yale UP 1967).
15. For example, UN OCHA/Kenya, 'Kenya: Tracking of Killings and Displacement in Pastoral Areas: Annual Reviews' (2010), online at , accessed 12 Apr. 2011
16. Jennifer Smith, 'The Rough Guide to Climate Change and Conflict', A Catholic Aid agency for England and Wales (CAFOD) policy paper (2009), online at, accessed 11 Jan. 2011. An alternative explanation for the greater intensity of livestock raids is the prevalence of guns.
17. Sandra Gray, Mary Sundal, Brandi Wiebusch, Michael A. Little, Paul W. Leslie, and Ivy L. Pike, 'Cattle Raiding, Cultural Survival, and Adaptability of East African Pastoralists', Current Anthropology 44 (2003) pp. S3-30, have suggested that the availability of assault weapons in the mid-1970s may have increased raid frequency and ferocity compared to the past.
18. Sandra Gray, Mary Sundal, Brandi Wiebusch, Michael A. Little, Paul W. Leslie, and Ivy L. Pike, 'Cattle Raiding, Cultural Survival, and Adaptability of East African Pastoralists', Current Anthropology 44 (2003) pp. S3-30, have suggested that the availability of assault weapons in the mid-1970s may have increased raid frequency and ferocity compared to the past.
19. For studies emphasizing cultural causes such as ideals of warriorhood, aspirations of acquiring more cattle for the purpose of bride wealth payments, expanding one's herd, and replacing herd losses, see Katsuyoshi Fukui and David Turton (eds) Warfare among East African Herders (Osaka: National Musuem of Ethnology 1979).
20. With the increasing expansion of global market forces into pastoral communities, some argue that livestock raids have become more lethal as the motives include commercial gains (see, M.L. Fleisher, 'Cattle Raiding and its Correlates: The Cultural-Ecological Consequences of Market-Oriented Cattle Raiding Among the Kuria of Tanzania', Human Ecology 26 (1998), pp.547-72).
21. John G. McPeak, Peter D. Little and Cheryl R. Doss, Risk and Social Change in an African Rural Economy: Livelihoods in Pastoralist Communities (New York: Routledge 2011). Because of this transformation, some argue that livestock raids have lately become more of a problem than an ecologically sound mechanism for redistributing wealth as suggested in earlier studies.
22. Dylan Hendrickson, Jeremy Armon and Robin Mearns, 'The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya' Disasters 22 (1998) pp.185-99.
23. Jeremy Lind, Adaptation, Conflict and Cooperation in Pastoralist East Africa: A Case Study from South Turkana, Kenya, Paper prepared for the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Apr. 2003.
24. Dylan Hendrickson, Robin Mearns and Jremy Armon, 'Livestock Raiding Among the Pastoral Turkana of Kenya: Redistribution, Predation and the Links to Famine', IDS Bulletin 27/3 (1990) pp.17-30.
25. Important political issues that may account for the continuity of violent livestock raids in pastoral communities include weak state presence and legitimacy. See Alemaya Mulugeta and T. Hagmann, 'Governing Violence in the Pastoralist Space: Karayu and State Notions of Cattle Raiding in the Ethiopian Awash Valley', Afrika Focus 21 (2008), pp.71-87.
26. T. Hagmann and Alemmaya, 'Pastoral Conflict and State-Building in the Ethiopian Lowlands' Afrika Spectrum 43 (2008) pp.19-37.
27. Jon Abbink, 'The Shrinking Cultural and Political Space of East African Pastoralists', Nordic African Studies 6 (1997) pp.1-15.
28. See also Katsuyoshi Fukui and J. Markakis (eds), Ethnicity and Conflict in the Horn of Africa (London: James Currey 1994).
29. Jon Abbink, 'Causes and Trajectories of Local Conflict Among Pastoral Peoples in Northeast Africa', Ethiopian Journal of the Social Sciences 5 (2007) pp.25-42.
30. Jon Abbink, 'Causes and Trajectories of Local Conflict Among Pastoral Peoples in Northeast Africa', Ethiopian Journal of the Social Sciences 5 (2007) pp.25-42.
31. Carol R. Ember and Melvin Ember, 'Resource Unpredictability, Mistrust, and War', Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1992) pp.242-62.
32. Carol R. Ember and Melvin Ember, 'Resource Unpredictability, Mistrust, and War', Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1992) pp.242-62.
33. J.T. McCabe, Rada Dyson-Hudson and Jan Wienpahl, 'Nomadic Movements' in M. Little and P. Leslie (eds) Turkana Herders of the Dry Savanna: Ecology and Biobehvioral Response of Nomads to an Uncertain Environment (Oxford: Oxford UP 1999) pp.109-121.
34. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
35. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
36. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
37. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
38. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
39. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
40. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
41. Carol R. Ember and Melvin Ember, 'Resource Unpredictability, Mistrust, and War', Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1992) pp.242-62.
42. Using the ACLED database, which included non-livestock violence, Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton, 'Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability' Journal of Peace Research 49 (2012) pp.51-64.
43. In our time frame, there is no apparent increase in level of violence-see Figure 8, for example.
44. P.D. Little, Somalia: Economy Without State (Oxford, UK: James Currey 2003).
45. Getachew Kassa, Among the Pastoral Afar in Ethiopia: Tradition, Continuity and Socio-Economic Change (Utrecht: International Books; Addis Ababa: OSSREA 2001).
46. M. O'Leary, 'Patterns of Range Use, Nomadism, and Sedentarization: The Case of the Rendille and Gabra' in G. Palsson (ed) From Water to World Making (Uppsala, Sweden: The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies 1990) pp.151-74.
47. J. Terrance McCabe, Cattle Bring Us to Our Enemies: Turkana Ecology, Politics, and Raiding in a Disequilibrium System (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press 2004).
48. James Ellis and D. Layne Coppock, 'Vegetation Patterns In Ngisonyoka, Turkana, Appendix II' in Rada Dyson-Hudson and J. Terrance McCabe (eds) South Turkana Nomadism: Coping With an Unpredictably Varying Environment (New Haven, CT: HRAF 1984) p.316.
49. H. Croze and G.M. Gwyenne, 'A Methodology for the Inventory and Monitoring of Pastoral Ecosytem Processes' in J. Galaty, D. Aronson, P.C. Salzman and A. Chouinard (eds) The Future of Pastoral Peoples: Proceedings of a Conference Held in Nairobi, Kenya, 4-8, August 1980 (Ottawa: International Development Research Center 1981) p.350.
50. J. Terrance McCabe, Cattle Bring Us to Our Enemies: Turkana Ecology, Politics, and Raiding in a Disequilibrium System (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press 2004).
51. J. Terrance McCabe, Cattle Bring Us to Our Enemies: Turkana Ecology, Politics, and Raiding in a Disequilibrium System (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press 2004).
52. John Lamphear, The Scattering Time: Turkana Responses to Colonial Rule (Oxford: Clarendon Press 1992).
53. P.H. Gulliver, The Family Herds: A Study of Two Pastoral Tribes in East Africa the Jie and Turkana (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul 1955).
54. Harald K. Müller, Changing Generations: Dynamics of Generation and Age-Sets in Southeastern Sudan (Toposa) and Northwestern Kenya (Turkana) (Fort Lauderdale: Verlag Breitenbach 1989).
55. Michael Bollig, 'Ethnic Conflicts in North-West Kenya: Pokot-Turkana raiding 1969-1984' Zeitschrift für Ethnologie 115 (1990) pp.73-90.
56. Sandra Gray, Mary Sundal, Brandi Wiebusch, Michael A. Little, Paul W. Leslie, and Ivy L. Pike, 'Cattle Raiding, Cultural Survival, and Adaptability of East African Pastoralists', Current Anthropology 44 (2003) pp. S3-30, have suggested that the availability of assault weapons in the mid-1970s may have increased raid frequency and ferocity compared to the past.
57. J. Terrance McCabe, Cattle Bring Us to Our Enemies: Turkana Ecology, Politics, and Raiding in a Disequilibrium System (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press 2004).
58. I.L. Pike, 'The Biosocial Consequences of Life on the Run: A Case Study of the Turkana of Kenya' Human Organization 63 (2004) pp.221-35.
59. J. Terrance McCabe, Cattle Bring Us to Our Enemies: Turkana Ecology, Politics, and Raiding in a Disequilibrium System (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press 2004).
60. Rada Dyson-Hudson and J. Terrance McCabe. South Turkana Nomadism: Coping with an Unpredictably Varying Environment (New Haven, CT: Human Relations Area Files 1985).
61. Sandra Gray, Mary Sundal, Brandi Wiebusch, Michael A. Little, Paul W. Leslie, and Ivy L. Pike, 'Cattle Raiding, Cultural Survival, and Adaptability of East African Pastoralists', Current Anthropology 44 (2003) pp. S3-30, have suggested that the availability of assault weapons in the mid-1970s may have increased raid frequency and ferocity compared to the past.
62. J. Terrance McCabe, Cattle Bring Us to Our Enemies: Turkana Ecology, Politics, and Raiding in a Disequilibrium System (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press 2004).
63. Sandra Gray, Mary Sundal, Brandi Wiebusch, Michael A. Little, Paul W. Leslie, and Ivy L. Pike, 'Cattle Raiding, Cultural Survival, and Adaptability of East African Pastoralists', Current Anthropology 44 (2003) pp. S3-30, have suggested that the availability of assault weapons in the mid-1970s may have increased raid frequency and ferocity compared to the past.
64. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
65. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
66. LexisNexis Academic, online at , accessed July 2010 to 2011.
67. Except for about 200 articles in 1998.
68. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
69. If this were true, the total number of casualties would be underestimated. However, our main question is whether the variability in rain by season or year predicts degree of violence.
70. as long as the minor incidents are systematically underreported, the results should not be affected. However, a reviewer raised the question whether the wet season, when roads become impassible, was likely to be more underreported than the dry season. This could potentially bias our results regarding monthly deaths if wet months were underreported, although it would not bias our yearly rainfall analysis. However, we also calculated mean deaths per livestock raid. Since this number only analyzes reported instances, this measure controls for underreporting. The results using this measure parallel our other findings.
71. 'Kenya: 14 Killed as Security Team Fights Bandits', Daily Nation 19 April 2008.
72. 'AAGM: Four Killed as Raiders Strike in Turkana', Daily Nation 12 Jan. 2002. Nairobi. Accessed from LexisNexis (note 40).
73. The data used in this effort were acquired as part of the activities of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Science Mission Directorate, and are archived and distributed by the Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC). The 'Make NetCDF Raster Layer' tools from the Multidimension Tools toolbox of ArcGIS was used.
74. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
75. Rada Dyson-Hudson and J. Terrance McCabe. South Turkana Nomadism: Coping with an Unpredictably Varying Environment (New Haven, CT: Human Relations Area Files 1985).
76. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
77. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
78. The rainfall data are computed with all months and years.
79. As noted above, research by Raleigh and Kniveton (note 21) looking at all kinds of violence in Africa reported a pronounced bimodal pattern with more violence occurring when particular months were much drier or much wetter than normal.
80. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).
81. Toru Soga, 'Sharing System of the "Scarce Resources in Southern Ethiopia"' in Svein Ege, Harald Aspen, Birhanu Teferra and Shiferaw Bekele (eds) Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies (Trondheim: NTNU-Trykk 2009), pp.357-67.
82. see also W. Roba Adano and Karen Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarisation, Natural Resource Management and Livelihood Diversification in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya, PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam (2004).