Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia policy

International Affairs

Volumn 80, Issue 2, 2004, Pages

  Allison, Roy ^a,b,c,d  

^a Royal Institute of International Affairs   (Russian Federation)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^d Carnegie Moscow Center   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84862340207     PISSN: 00205850     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2346.2004.00383.x     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Central Asia refers here to the five CIS states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Of these only Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are Caspian Sea littoral states. This article examines Russian policy more broadly around the Caspian Sea to the extent that it illuminates Russian policy in Central Asia, especially in the fields of energy and security policies.
2. Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, 'Anticipating major upheavals in Russia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 20 Jan. 2003, p. 2. For an analysis from the Russian political centre see (former foreign minister) Yevgeny Primakov, Mir posle 11 Sentyabrya (Moscow: Mysl', 2002).
3. Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, 'Anticipating major upheavals in Russia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 20 Jan. 2003, p. 2. For an analysis from the Russian political centre see (former foreign minister) Yevgeny Primakov, Mir posle 11 Sentyabrya (Moscow: Mysl', 2002).
4. For the expectation that Putin will assert Russian influence in Central Asia more actively after the Duma elections, see e.g. 'Gosudarstvennyy interes ili imperskaya nostal'giya', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 26 Jan. 2004.
5. Report sent to President Putin by Russian foreign policy experts, transcribed in 'America as Russia's strategic ally', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 29 Oct. 2003.
6. The few broad Russian analyses of terrorism tend to highlight Chechnya. See Ye. Stepanov, ed., Sovremennyy terrorizm: Sostoyanie i perspektivy (Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2000); Ekaterina Stepanova, 'Russia and the combat against terrorism in local regional conflicts', in Vladimir Baranovsky and Alexandre Kaliadine, eds, Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security (Moscow: Institute of World Economy and International Relations, 2002), pp. 42-58.
7. The few broad Russian analyses of terrorism tend to highlight Chechnya. See Ye. Stepanov, ed., Sovremennyy terrorizm: Sostoyanie i perspektivy (Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2000); Ekaterina Stepanova, 'Russia and the combat against terrorism in local regional conflicts', in Vladimir Baranovsky and Alexandre Kaliadine, eds, Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security (Moscow: Institute of World Economy and International Relations, 2002), pp. 42-58.
8. Although this has been a subject in the occasional meetings of the US-Russia Working Group on Counterterrorism. The subject was also aired in the collection of perspectives in Vitaly Naumkin, ed., Otvet terrorizmy i povstancheskim dvizheniyam v Tsentral'noy Azii (Moscow: Centre for Strategic and Political Studies/Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2002).
9. 'Moscow forming "the southern border'", Rossiyskie vesti, no. 8, 5-11 Mar. 2003, p. 10.
10. 'Partners are ceasing to understand each other', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozreniye, no. 4, 8 Feb. 2002, p. 1; 'Putin walks careful line on US antiterror policy', Jamestown Foundation Monitor 8: 32, 14 Feb. 2002.
11. 'Partners are ceasing to understand each other', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozreniye, no. 4, 8 Feb. 2002, p. 1; 'Putin walks careful line on US antiterror policy', Jamestown Foundation Monitor 8: 32, 14 Feb. 2002.
12. 'We have enough missiles to take on everyone', Vremya novostei, 3 Oct. 2003, p. 1; 'Reforms over', Izvestiya, 14 Oct. 2003, p. 4; 'Muted reactions to Russian interventionism', Reporting Central Asia, Institute of War and Peace Reporting, no. 245, 13 Nov. 2003.
13. 'We have enough missiles to take on everyone', Vremya novostei, 3 Oct. 2003, p. 1; 'Reforms over', Izvestiya, 14 Oct. 2003, p. 4; 'Muted reactions to Russian interventionism', Reporting Central Asia, Institute of War and Peace Reporting, no. 245, 13 Nov. 2003.
14. 'We have enough missiles to take on everyone', Vremya novostei, 3 Oct. 2003, p. 1; 'Reforms over', Izvestiya, 14 Oct. 2003, p. 4; 'Muted reactions to Russian interventionism', Reporting Central Asia, Institute of War and Peace Reporting, no. 245, 13 Nov. 2003.
15. Igor Torbakov, 'Russian policymakers air notion of "liberal empire" in Caucasus, Central Asia', http://www.eurasianet.org, posted 27 Oct. 2003. Aleksandr Dugin, chairman of the Eurasia Party, expresses this kind of thinking.
16. For a detailed analysis of the impact of debates on Russian policy outputs in the CIS region see Nicole J. Jackson, Russian foreign policy and the CIS: theories, debates and actions (London and New York: Routledge, 2003), esp. chs 3 and 4, pp. 27-78.
17. Jean-Christophe Peuch, 'Russian interference in the Caspian Sea: diplomacy adrift', in David Lane, ed., The political economy of Russian oil (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999); Peter Rutland, 'Paradigms for Russian policy in the Caspian Sea', in Robert Ebel and Rajan Menon, eds (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 2000), pp. 163-82; Yuri Fedorov, Kaspiyskaya neftt' i mezhdunarodnye bezopasnost', Parts 1 and 2 (Moscow, Russian Science Foundation, 1996).
18. Jean-Christophe Peuch, 'Russian interference in the Caspian Sea: diplomacy adrift', in David Lane, ed., The political economy of Russian oil (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999); Peter Rutland, 'Paradigms for Russian policy in the Caspian Sea', in Robert Ebel and Rajan Menon, eds (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 2000), pp. 163-82; Yuri Fedorov, Kaspiyskaya neftt' i mezhdunarodnye bezopasnost', Parts 1 and 2 (Moscow, Russian Science Foundation, 1996).
19. Jean-Christophe Peuch, 'Russian interference in the Caspian Sea: diplomacy adrift', in David Lane, ed., The political economy of Russian oil (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999); Peter Rutland, 'Paradigms for Russian policy in the Caspian Sea', in Robert Ebel and Rajan Menon, eds (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 2000), pp. 163-82; Yuri Fedorov, Kaspiyskaya neftt' i mezhdunarodnye bezopasnost', Parts 1 and 2 (Moscow, Russian Science Foundation, 1996).
20. Bobo Lo, 'The securitization of Russian foreign policy under Putin', in Gabriel Gorodetsky and Werner Weidenfeld, eds, Regional security in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union (Bonn: Europa Union, 2002).
21. Other relevant Foreign Ministry personnel for Central Asia are Anatoly Popkov (deputy foreign minister for CIS affairs) and Vladimir Tyurdenev (director of the Third Department of the CIS countries, responsible for the five Central Asian states). Andrei Urnov, ambassador at large for the Caspian and head of the Foreign Ministry's Caspian Working Group, works alongside Kalyuzhny. Zamir Kabulov acts as the special representative of the foreign minister on Afghanistan.
22. The CIS Military Cooperation Coordination Headquarters and the Military Headquarters of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (the Secretary General of the CSTO, Colonel General Nikolai Bordyuzha, a former director of the Federal Border Service and diplomat, had previously served as a professional counterintelligence officer).
23. For analyses of the Russian policy debate in the 19901 see Irina Zviagelikaia, The Russian policy debate an Central Asia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairi, 1995); Andrei Kortunov and Andrei Shoumikhin, 'Russia and Central Asia: evolution of mutual perceptions, policies and interdependence', in Yongjin Zhong and Rouben Azizian, eds, Ethnic challenges beyond borders; Chinese and Russian perceptions of the Central Asian conundrum (London: Macmillan, 1996), pp. 11-28.
24. For analyses of the Russian policy debate in the 19901 see Irina Zviagelikaia, The Russian policy debate an Central Asia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairi, 1995); Andrei Kortunov and Andrei Shoumikhin, 'Russia and Central Asia: evolution of mutual perceptions, policies and interdependence', in Yongjin Zhong and Rouben Azizian, eds, Ethnic challenges beyond borders; Chinese and Russian perceptions of the Central Asian conundrum (London: Macmillan, 1996), pp. 11-28.
25. Dmitry Trofimov (a research specialist who has worked in the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian embassy in Tashkent), 'Russia and the United States in Central Asia: problems, prospects and interests', Central Asia and the Caucasus 19: 1, 2003, p. 76; D. Trofimov, 'K voprosu o tselyakh i zadachakh vneshney politiki Rossii na tsentral'noaziatskom napravlenii', in Yu. Kiryushin, ed., Rossiyskaya zapadnaya sibir'- Tsentral'naya Azii (Barnaul: Az Buka, 2003), pp. 23-5.
26. Dmitry Trofimov (a research specialist who has worked in the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian embassy in Tashkent), 'Russia and the United States in Central Asia: problems, prospects and interests', Central Asia and the Caucasus 19: 1, 2003, p. 76; D. Trofimov, 'K voprosu o tselyakh i zadachakh vneshney politiki Rossii na tsentral'noaziatskom napravlenii', in Yu. Kiryushin, ed., Rossiyskaya zapadnaya sibir'- Tsentral'naya Azii (Barnaul: Az Buka, 2003), pp. 23-5.
27. The various dimensions of the key relationship are explored by Vitaly Naumkin, 'Russian policy toward Kazakhstan', in Robert Legvold, ed., Thinking strategically: the major powers, Kazakhstan and the Central Asian nexus (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), pp. 39-65.
28. Trofimov, 'Russia and the United States in Central Asia', pp. 76-80.
29. See Alexei Malashenko, 'Postsovetskie gosudarstva Yuga i interesy Moskvy', Pro et Contra 5: 3, 2000, pp. 34-47.
30. 'Reforms over', Izvestiya, 14 Oct. 2003, p. 4. Russia has applied for membership of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) as an observer, and a special adviser on Islamic affairs may be appointed for Putin.
31. Yu. V. Lysenko, 'Rossiya i pogranichnye problemy gosudartsv Tsentralnoy Azii', in SNG Ezhegodnik (Moscow: Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Nauchnaya kniga, 2001), pp. 222-44; Dina Malysheva, 'Konflikty u yuzhnikh rubezhey Rossii', Pro et Contra 5: 3, 2000, pp. 7-32.
32. Yu. V. Lysenko, 'Rossiya i pogranichnye problemy gosudartsv Tsentralnoy Azii', in SNG Ezhegodnik (Moscow: Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Nauchnaya kniga, 2001), pp. 222-44; Dina Malysheva, 'Konflikty u yuzhnikh rubezhey Rossii', Pro et Contra 5: 3, 2000, pp. 7-32.
33. Roy Allison, 'The military and political security landscape in Russia and the South', in Rajan Menon, Yuri Fedorov and Ghia Nodia, eds, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia: the list century security environment (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1999), pp. 42-55; Roy Allison and Lena Jonson, eds, Central Asian security: the new international context (Washington DC: Brookings Institution/Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2002).
34. Roy Allison, 'The military and political security landscape in Russia and the South', in Rajan Menon, Yuri Fedorov and Ghia Nodia, eds, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia: the list century security environment (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1999), pp. 42-55; Roy Allison and Lena Jonson, eds, Central Asian security: the new international context (Washington DC: Brookings Institution/Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2002).
35. For an overview of these issues see Lena Jonson, 'Russia and Central Asia: post-II Sept. 2001', Central Asia and the Caucasus 19: 1, 2003, pp. 83-94.
36. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 23 Nov. 2003, pp. 10-11.
37. 'Sozdat oboronnyy soyuz v ramkakh SNG ne udaetsya', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 June 2003.
38. 'General secretaries dividing Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 29 Sept. 2003, p. 10.
39. Interview with Maj.-Gen. Sergei Chernomordin, 'Collective rapid response forces getting their wings', Krasnaya zvezda, 19 April 2003, p. 2.
40. Interview with Kyrgyz defence minister, Col.-Gen. Esen Topoyev, 'Air base has given Russia a firm foothold in Kyrgyzstan', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie 34, 26 Sept.-2 Oct. 2003, p. 1.
41. 'Return to Kant', Novye izvestiya, 21 Jan. 2003, p. 2.
42. As noted by Lt.-Gen. Yevgeny Yurev, commander of the Urals Air Force and Air Defence Army, 'Russia returns to Central Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 24 Oct. 2003, p. 2.
43. 'The Asian border?', Krasnaya zvezda, 28 Oct. 2003, p. 2.
44. 'The Kremlin plays in the Central Asian storm', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie 23, 11-17 July 2003. p. 2.
45. 'Russia creating a large military base in Central Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 May 2003; 'Bound for military base', Krasnaya zvezda, 16 May 2003, p. 3.
46. 'Russia creating a large military base in Central Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 May 2003; 'Bound for military base', Krasnaya zvezda, 16 May 2003, p. 3.
47. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 3: 26, 3 Aug. 2003; 'Russia creating a large military base in Central Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 May 2003.
48. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 3: 26, 3 Aug. 2003; 'Russia creating a large military base in Central Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 May 2003.
49. BBC Reporting, Inside Central Asia, no. 456, 9-15 Dec. 2002.
50. 'Tell me who your enemies are', Rossiyskie vesti, 5 Nov. 2003, p. n. For an earlier argument that Russia should avoid entrapment by 'a preemptive scaling back of Russia's zone of direct involvement and control' in Central Asia, see V. I. Slipchenko (a former key theoretician and major-general in the Soviet general staff), 'Russia's political and military problems in Central Asia', European Security 6: 1, Spring 1997, PP. 122-3.
51. 'Tell me who your enemies are', Rossiyskie vesti, 5 Nov. 2003, p. n. For an earlier argument that Russia should avoid entrapment by 'a preemptive scaling back of Russia's zone of direct involvement and control' in Central Asia, see V. I. Slipchenko (a former key theoretician and major-general in the Soviet general staff), 'Russia's political and military problems in Central Asia', European Security 6: 1, Spring 1997, PP. 122-3.
52. See Aleksandra Dokuchaeva, Andrei Grozin and Konstantin Zatulin, NG-Stsenarii, supplement to Nezavisimaya gazeta, 8, 10 July 1997, pp. 5-6.
53. Oleg Boronin, 'On the priorities of Russian policy in post-Soviet Central Asia', Central Asia and the Caucasus 21: 3, 2003, pp. 82-6.
54. Sergei Golunov, 'Russia-Kazakhstan: "Security and cooperation" dilemma along the common border', Central Asia and the Caucasus 16: 4, 2002, pp. 56-65; 'If we have money we will have the border', Kommersant, 28 Feb. 2003, p. 3.
55. Sergei Golunov, 'Russia-Kazakhstan: "Security and cooperation" dilemma along the common border', Central Asia and the Caucasus 16: 4, 2002, pp. 56-65; 'If we have money we will have the border', Kommersant, 28 Feb. 2003, p. 3.
56. 'Sotrudnichestvu - krepnut', Krasnaya zvezda, 16 Jan. 2004; 'V Moskvu za deshevym oruzhiem', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 Jan. 2004, p. 5. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 4: 3, 19 Jan. 2004, pp. 3-6; BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 18 Jan. 2004, pp. 5-6.
57. 'Sotrudnichestvu - krepnut', Krasnaya zvezda, 16 Jan. 2004; 'V Moskvu za deshevym oruzhiem', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 Jan. 2004, p. 5. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 4: 3, 19 Jan. 2004, pp. 3-6; BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 18 Jan. 2004, pp. 5-6.
58. 'Sotrudnichestvu - krepnut', Krasnaya zvezda, 16 Jan. 2004; 'V Moskvu za deshevym oruzhiem', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 Jan. 2004, p. 5. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 4: 3, 19 Jan. 2004, pp. 3-6; BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 18 Jan. 2004, pp. 5-6.
59. 'Sotrudnichestvu - krepnut', Krasnaya zvezda, 16 Jan. 2004; 'V Moskvu za deshevym oruzhiem', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 Jan. 2004, p. 5. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 4: 3, 19 Jan. 2004, pp. 3-6; BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 18 Jan. 2004, pp. 5-6.
60. 'The Shkval missiles from Bishkek', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, no. 39, 31 Oct.-13 Nov. 2003, p. 6.
61. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 439, 12-18 Aug. 2002, p. 3.
62. 'The Caspian Sea is worth a war', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 4 March 2003, p. 4; 'NATO will help Kazakhstan to create the Caspian fleet', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, no. 39, 31 Oct.-13 Nov. 2003, p. 3.
63. 'The Caspian Sea is worth a war', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 4 March 2003, p. 4; 'NATO will help Kazakhstan to create the Caspian fleet', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, no. 39, 31 Oct.-13 Nov. 2003, p. 3.
64. 'One sea for five fleets', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, no. 25, 25-31 July 2003, p. 2; 'Bomb with an oil fuse', Novye izvestiya, 20 Oct. 2003, pp. 1, 5.
65. 'One sea for five fleets', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, no. 25, 25-31 July 2003, p. 2; 'Bomb with an oil fuse', Novye izvestiya, 20 Oct. 2003, pp. 1, 5.
66. 'Military summons of the Caspian region', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 Jan. 2004, p. 8.
67. Trofimov, 'Russia and the United States in Central Asia', pp. 77-8.
68. For an overall evaluation, see Peter Rutland, 'Caspian security: Russia's response to US regional influence', NBR Analysis, Seattle, National Bureau of Asian Research, Nov. 2003. For the Russian role in trying to create a North-South energy bridge in the specific case of electricity, see Gregory Gleason, 'Russia and the politics of the Central Asian electricity grid', Problems of Post-Communism 50: 3, May-June 2003, pp. 42-52.
69. For an overall evaluation, see Peter Rutland, 'Caspian security: Russia's response to US regional influence', NBR Analysis, Seattle, National Bureau of Asian Research, Nov. 2003. For the Russian role in trying to create a North-South energy bridge in the specific case of electricity, see Gregory Gleason, 'Russia and the politics of the Central Asian electricity grid', Problems of Post-Communism 50: 3, May-June 2003, pp. 42-52.
70. These are well analysed by Marika Karayianni, 'Russia's foreign policy for Central Asia passes through energy agreements', Central Asia and the Caucasus 22; 4, 2003, pp. 90-6.
71. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 18 May 2003, pp. 13-14.
72. Ibid., pp. 91-4. These Gazprom deals also open up the possibility for Russia to tap the substantial hydroelectricity resources of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
73. See the declaration of the Rome summit, 28 May 2002, 'NATO-Russia relations: a new quality', www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/b020528e.
74. Joint declaration issued on 24 May 2002, www.whitehouse.gov/news/ releases/2002/05/20020524-2, p. 2.
75. 'Russia tops US in Central Asia', Opinion Analysis, Office of Research, Department of State, Washington DC, 31 May 2002, pp. 1-14.
76. Sergei Kortunov, 'Russian-American partnership: a chance to open a new page', International Affairs (Moscow) 48: 3, 2002, pp. 23-39.
77. 'Stsenariy voyny protiv Iraka', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie 31, 6-9 Sept. 2002; 'Voenno-bazovaya udavka', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 Jan. 2004, p. 8.
78. 'Stsenariy voyny protiv Iraka', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie 31, 6-9 Sept. 2002; 'Voenno-bazovaya udavka', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 Jan. 2004, p. 8.
79. I. Zviagelskaya and D. Makarov, 'Vospriyatie Rossiey politiki zapada v Tsentral'noy Azii', in M. Narinskiy and A. Mal'gin, eds, Yuzhniy flang SNG (Moscow: Logos, 2003), p. 120.
80. Kortunov, 'Russian-American partnership', p. 32; Zviagelskaya and Makarov, 'Vospriyatie Rossiey politiki zapada v Tsentral'noy Azii', p. 126.
81. Kortunov, 'Russian-American partnership', p. 32; Zviagelskaya and Makarov, 'Vospriyatie Rossiey politiki zapada v Tsentral'noy Azii', p. 126.
82. Askar Akayev, president of Kyrgyzstan, has explicitly called for such a Russian mandate and predicted an increase in Russia's role in Central Asia (see 'Nobody will manage to expel Russia from Central Asia', Izvestiya, 28 Nov. 2003, p. 4), but other Central Asian states would actively resist this.