Evaluation of the impact of climatic trends and variability in rice-wheat system productivity using Cropping System Model DSSAT over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volumn 164, Issue , 2012, Pages 71-81

  Subash, N ^a   Ram Mohan, H S ^b  

^a ICAR Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research   (India)

^b Department of Physics   (India)

Author keywords

Climatic variability; Cropping system; Decision support system; Potential yield; Sensitivity analysis; Simulated yield

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE VARIATION; CROP YIELD; CROPPING PRACTICE; DECISION MAKING; FOOD SECURITY; GROWING SEASON; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION GROWTH; RICE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; URBANIZATION; WHEAT;

FAIZABAD; GANGETIC PLAIN; HARYANA; HISAR; INDIA; UTTAR PRADESH;

TRITICUM AESTIVUM;

EID: 84862303575     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.05.008     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Abrol, I.P., Bronson, K.F., Duxbury, J.M., Gupta, R.K., 2000. Long-term soil fertility experiments in rice-wheat cropping systems. Rice-Wheat Consortium Research Series 6, New Delhi, India.
2. Adams R.M., Flemming R.A., Chang C.C., Mc Carl B.A., Rosenzweig C. A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on US agriculture. Clim. Change 1995, 30:147-167.
3. Aggarwal P.K., Sinha S.K. Effect of probable increase in carbon dioxide and temperature on productivity of wheat in India. J. Agric. Meteorol. 1993, 48:811-814.
4. Aggarwal P.K., Kalra N. Analysing the limitations set by climatic factors genotype, water and nitrogen availability on productivity of wheat. II. Climatically potential yields and optimal management strategies. Field Crops Res. 1994, 38:93-103.
5. Aggarwal P.K., Bandyopadhyay S.K., Pathak H., Kalra N., Chander S., Kumar S. Analysis of yield trends of the RW system in north-western India. Outlook Agric. 2000, 29:259-268.
6. Aggarwal, P.K., Kalra, N., Kumar, S., Pathak, H., Bandyopadhyay, A.K., Vasisht, A.K., Roetter, R.P., Hoanh, C.T., 2000. Haryana State Case Study: trade-off between cereal production and environmental impact. In: Synthesis of Methodology development and case studies. SysNet Research paper series No. 3, IRRI, Philippines, 11-18.
7. Aggarwal P.K., Mall R.K. Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment. Clim. Change 2002, 52:331-343.
8. Aggarwal P.K. Impact of climate change on Indian Agriculture. J. Plant Biol. 2003, 30:189-198.
9. Alexandrov V.A., Hoogenboom G. The impact of climatic variability and change on crop yield in Bulgaria. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2000, 104(4):315-327.
10. Bhandari A.L., Ladha J.K., Pathak H., Padre A.T., Dawe D., Gupta R.K. Trends of yield and soil nutrient status in a long-term rice-wheat experiment in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 2002, 66:162-170.
11. Brown J.F., Pervez S., Wardlow B., Tadesse T., Callahan K. Assessment of 2006 and 2007 drought patterns in the vegetation drought response index across Nebraska. Pecora 17-The future of land imaging... 2008.
12. Brunetti M., Buffoni L., Maugeri M., Nanni T. Precipitation intensity trends in northern Italy. Int. J. Climatol. 2000, 20:1017-1031.
13. Brunetti M., Maugeri M., Nanni T. Variations of temperature and precipitation in Italy from 1866 to 1995. Theor. Appl. Climatol 2000, 65:165-174.
14. Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Slingo J.M., Craufurd P.Q., Grimes D.I.F. Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: limits to skill and non-stationarity in weather-yield relationships. J. Appl. Climatol. 2005, 44:515-531.
15. Challinor A.J., Slingo J.M., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Crimes D.I.F. Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: determination of the working spatial scale. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2003, 42:175-192.
16. Chiew, F., Sirivardena, L., 2005. TREND: trend/change detection software manual, , CRC for Catchment Hydrology 29. http://www.toolkit.net.au/trend.
17. CSTPA Handbook on Reference Methods for Soil Testing 1974, Council on Soil Testing and Plant Analysis, Athens, GA.
18. Easterling W.E., Chen X., Hays C., Brandle J.R., Zhang H. Improving the validation of model-simulated crop yield response to climate change: an application to the EPIC model. Clim. Res. 1996, 6:263-273.
19. Gill M.A. Promotion of Resource Conservation Tillage Technologies in South Asia-An Overview of Rice-Wheat Consortium Activities in the Indo-Gangetic Plains 1999, Directorate General Agriculture-Water Management, Lahore, Pakistan.
20. Gopinathan C.K. An indirect method for forecasting the annual food production of India. Curr. Sci. 2000, 79(1):23-24.
21. Goswami B.N., Venugopal V., Sengupta D., Madhusoodanan M.S., Xavier P.K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming Environment. Science 2006, 314:1442-1444.
22. Hobbs, P.R., Morris, M.L., 1996. Meeting South Asia's future food requirements from rice-wheat cropping systems: priority issues facing researchers in the post Green Revolution era. NRG Paper 96-01. CIMMYT, Mexico.
23. Hoogenboom G., Jones J.W., Wilkens P.W., Porter C.H., Boote K.J., Hunt L.A., Singh U., Lizaso J.L., White J.W., Gijsman A.J., Tsuji G.Y. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.5 2010, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, (CD ROM).
24. Humphreys, E., Thaman, S., Prashar, A., Gajri, P.R., Dhillon, S.S., Yadvinder-Singh, Nayyar, A., Timsina, J., Bijay-Singh, 2004. Productivity, water use efficiency and hydrology of wheat on beds and flats in Punjab, India. CSIRO Land and Water Technical Report 03/04.
25. Hundal S.S., Kaur P. Climatic change and its impact on crop productivity in Punjab, India. Climatic Variability and Agriculture 1996, pp. 377-393.
26. Hundal S.S., Kaur P., Dhaliwal L.K. Prediction of potential productivity of rice in Punjab, India under synthetic climate change scenarios. In: modeling for crop-climate-soil-pest system and its applications in sustainable crop production. Jiangsu Acad. Agric. Sci. 1998, 172-178.
27. Hundal S.S., Kaur P. Evaluation of agronomic practices for rice using computer model, CERES-Rice. Oryza 1999, 36.
28. Jones J.W., Hunt L.A., Hoogenboom G., Godwin D.C., Singh U., Tsuji G.Y., Pickering N.B., Thornton P.K., Bowen W.T., Boote K.J., Ritchi J.T. Crop models. DSSAT Version 3 1994, vol. 2. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii.
29. Kundzewicz Z.W., Robson A. Detecting Trend and Other Changes in Hydrological Data 2000, World Climate Program-Water, WMO/UNESCO, WCDMP-45, WMO/TD 1013, Geneva.
30. Ladha, J.K., Pathak, H., Tirol-Padre, A., Dawe, D., Gupta, R.K., 2003. Productivity trends in intensive rice wheat cropping systems in Asia. In: Improving the Productivity and Sustainability of Rice-Wheat Systems: Issues and Impacts. ASA Special Publication 65, 45-76.
31. Mandal, C., Mandal, D.K., Srinivas, C.V., Sehgal, J., Velayutham, M., 1999. Soil-climatic database for crop planning in India. NBSS Publ.53, NBSS&LUP, Nagpur.
32. McQuigg, J.D., Thompson, L., Duc, S.Le., Lockard, M., McKay, G., 1973. The influence of weather and climate on United States grain yields: bumper crops or drought. Rep to the Associate Administrator for Environmental Monitoring and Prediction, NOAA, US Dep Commerce.
33. NATCOM India's Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2004, National Communication Project, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Govt. of India.
34. Olsen, S.R., Cole, C.V., Watanabe, F.S., Dean, L.A., 1954. Estimation of available phosphorous in soils by extraction with sodium bicarbonate. USDA Circular No. 939, Washington, DC.
35. Pandey S., Mortimer M., Wade L., Tuong T.P., Lopez K., Hardy B. Direct seeding: research issues and opportunities. Direct Seeding in Asian Rice Systems: Strategic Research Issues and Opportunities 2002, International Rice Research Institute Philippines.
36. Pathak H., Bhatia A., Jain M.C., Kumar S., Singh S., Kumar U. Emission of nitrous oxide from soil in rice-wheat systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. J. Environ. Monit. Assess. 2002, 77(2):163-178.
37. Pathak H., Ladha J.K., Aggarwal P.K., Peng S., Das S., Singh Y., Singh B., Kamra S.K., Mishra B., Sastri A.S.R.A.S., Aggarwal H.P., Das D.K., Gupta R.K. Climatic potential and on-farm yield trends of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Field Crops Res. 2003, 80(3):223-234.
38. Pingali, P.L., Shah, M., 1999. Rice-wheat cropping systems in the Indo-Gangetic plains: policy redirections for sustainable resource use. Sustaining rice-wheat production systems: socio-economic and policy issues. Rice-Wheat Consortium Paper Series 5 RWC, Delhi, India.
39. Rao G.S.P., Murty M.K., Joshi U.R. Climate change over India as revealed by critical extreme temperature analysis. Mausam 2005, 56:601-608.
40. Rosenweig C., Parry M.L. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 1994, 367:133-138.
41. Saha, M.N., Saha, A.R., Mandal, B.C., Ray, P.K., 2000. Effects of long-term jute-rice-wheat cropping system on crop yields and soil fertility. In: Long-term Soil Fertility Experiments in Rice-Wheat Cropping Systems. RWC Research Series 6, New Delhi.
42. Sakamoto C.M. The Z-index as a variable for crop yield estimation. Agric. Meteorol. 1978, 19:305-314.
43. Saseendran S.A., Hubbard K.G., Singh K.K., Mendiratta N., Rathore L.S., Singh S.V. Optimum transplanting dates for rice in Kerala India. Determined using both CERESv3.0 and ClimProb. Agron. J. 1998, 90:185-190.
44. Saseendran S.A., Singh K.K., Rathore L.S., Rao G.S.L.H.V., Mendiratta N., Lakshmi Narayan, Singh S.V. Evaluation of the CERES-Ricev3.0 model for the climate conditions of the state of Kerala India. Appl. Meteorol. 1998, 5:385-392.
45. Saseendran S.A., Singh K.K., Rathore L.S., Singh S.V., Sinha S.K. Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India. Clim. Change 2000, 44:495-514.
46. Serrano A., Mateos V.L., Garcia J.A. Trend analysis for monthly precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1921-1995. Phys. Chem. Earth 1999, 24:85-90.
47. Sherchand K. Use of simulation modelling to assess potential yield in the RW systems in different climatic environments: progress report. Proceedings of the RW Research End of Project Workshop 1998.
48. Sinha Ray K.C., Srivastava A.K. Is there any change in extreme events like heavy rainfall?. Curr. Sci. 2000, 79(2):155-158.
49. Singh, K.N., Swarup, A., 2000. Effect of long-term rice-wheat cropping sequence on yield and soil properties in reclaimed sodic soils. In: Long-term Soil Fertility Experiments in Rice-Wheat Cropping Systems. RWC Research Series 6, New Delhi.
50. Singh R.B. Environmental consequences of agricultural development: a case study from the Green Revolution state of Haryana, India. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2000, 82:97-103.
51. Singh U., Thornton P.K. Using crop models for sustainability and environmental quality assessment. Outlook Agric. 1992, 21:209-218.
52. Subash N., Ram Mohan H.S. Trend detection in rainfall and evaluation of standardized precipitation index as a drought assessment index for rice-wheat productivity over IGR in India. Int. J. Climatol. 2010, 31(11):1694-1709.
53. Subash N., Sikka A.K., Ram Mohan H.S. An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall temperature in Central Northeast India-a historical perspective 1889-2008. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2010, 103:305-319.
54. timsina J., Singh U., Singh Y. Addressing sustainability of RW systems: analysis of long-term experimentation and simulation. Application of Systems Approaches at the Field Level 1996, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
55. Timsina, J., Adhikari, B., Ganesh, K.C., 1997. Modelling and simulation of rice, wheat and maize crops for selected sites and the potential effects of climate change on their productivity in Nepal. Consultancy Report submitted to Ministry of Agriculture, Harihar Bhawan, Kathmandu, Nepal.
56. Timsina J., Singh U., Badaruddin M., Meisner C. Cultivar, nitrogen and moisture effects on a RW sequence: experimentation and simulation. Agron. J. 1998, 90:119-130.
57. Walkley A., Black I.A. Estimation of soil organic carbon by the chromic acid titration method. Soil Sci. 1934, 37:29-38.