메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 98, Issue , 2012, Pages 111-123

When will oil, natural gas, and coal peak?

Author keywords

Coal; Fossil fuels; Hubbert model; Natural gas; Peak production

Indexed keywords

COAL PRODUCTION; CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION; ENERGY SOURCE; FUEL PRODUCTION; FUTURE TRENDS; HISTORICAL DATA; HUBBERT MODEL; PEAK VALUES; PREDICTIVE MODELS; SINGLE CYCLE;

EID: 84861960360     PISSN: 00162361     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.fuel.2012.03.021     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (184)

References (79)
  • 1
    • 77955598091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EIA Report DOE/EIA-0484(2010), July Energy information administration, US Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
    • EIA, International energy outlook 2010, Report DOE/EIA-0484(2010), July 2010. Energy information administration, US Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
    • (2010) International Energy Outlook 2010
  • 2
    • 84861967209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EIA US energy information administration, Washington, DC. Table 1.8: "World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups, 1980-2006"
    • EIA, International energy annual 2006, Report released: June-December 2008. US energy information administration, Washington, DC. Table 1.8: "World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups, 1980-2006".
    • International Energy Annual 2006, Report Released: June-December 2008
  • 3
    • 78651449621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EIA Report DOE/EIA-0384(2009), August Energy information administration. US Department of energy. Washington, DC. Table 1.3: "Primary Energy Consumption by Source, Selected Years, 1949-2009"
    • EIA, Annual energy review 2009, Report DOE/EIA-0384(2009), August 2010. Energy information administration. US Department of energy. Washington, DC. Table 1.3: "Primary Energy Consumption by Source, Selected Years, 1949-2009".
    • (2010) Annual Energy Review 2009
  • 4
    • 70449388617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Center for Environment & Population (CEP). New Canaan, CT, USA; September
    • Markham VD. US population, energy & climate change. Center for Environment & Population (CEP). New Canaan, CT, USA; September 2008.
    • (2008) US Population, Energy & Climate Change
    • Markham, V.D.1
  • 8
    • 33847754992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing hubbert
    • DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004, PII S0301421506004265
    • A.R. Brandt Testing Hubbert Energy Policy 35 5 2007 3074 3088 (Pubitemid 46381415)
    • (2007) Energy Policy , vol.35 , Issue.5 , pp. 3074-3088
    • Brandt, A.R.1
  • 9
    • 84861977752 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating Hubbert's peak and improvements?
    • Stanford University Geophysics Department, Stanford, CA, USA
    • Witten B. Evaluating Hubbert's peak and improvements? In: Oil and War: a GP200A class investigation. Stanford University Geophysics Department, Stanford, CA, USA; 2006. < http://srb.stanford.edu/nur/GP200A%20Papers/ben/witten/ paper.pdf >.
    • (2006) Oil and War: A GP200A Class Investigation
    • Witten, B.1
  • 12
    • 0034678732 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learn strengths, weaknesses to understand Hubbert curve
    • J.H. Laherrère Learn strengths, weaknesses to understand Hubbert curve Oil Gas J 98 16 2000 63 76 (Pubitemid 30315245)
    • (2000) Oil and Gas Journal , vol.98 , Issue.16 , pp. 63-76
    • Laherrere, J.H.1
  • 13
    • 70449363386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hubbert Center Newsletter 2002/3, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA; July
    • Campbell CJ. Forecasting Global Oil Supply 2000-2050. Hubbert Center Newsletter 2002/3, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA; July 2002. < http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Campbell/02-3.pdf >.
    • (2002) Forecasting Global Oil Supply 2000-2050
    • Campbell, C.J.1
  • 15
    • 0028448440 scopus 로고
    • Oil production trends in the CIS
    • R.A. Wattenbarger Oil production trends in the CIS World Oil 215 6 1994 91 97
    • (1994) World Oil , vol.215 , Issue.6 , pp. 91-97
    • Wattenbarger, R.A.1
  • 16
    • 0003030468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply
    • L.F. Ivanhoe Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply World Oil 217 11 1996 91 94 (Pubitemid 126598243)
    • (1996) World Oil , vol.217 , Issue.11 , pp. 91-94
    • Ivanhoe, L.F.1
  • 17
    • 0034002774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of U.S. and world oil production patterns using Hubbert-style curves
    • DOI 10.1023/A:1007587132700
    • A.A. Bartlett An analysis of US and world oil production patterns using Hubbert-style curves Math Geol 32 1 2000 1 17 (Pubitemid 30222077)
    • (2000) Mathematical Geology , vol.32 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-17
    • Bartlett, A.A.1
  • 19
    • 78650416285 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve
    • B. Gallagher Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve Energy Policy 39 2 2011 790 802
    • (2011) Energy Policy , vol.39 , Issue.2 , pp. 790-802
    • Gallagher, B.1
  • 20
    • 77950178805 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting world crude oil production using Multicyclic Hubbert model
    • I.S. Nashawi, A. Malallah, and M. Al-Bisharah Forecasting world crude oil production using Multicyclic Hubbert model Energy Fuel 24 3 2010 1788 1800
    • (2010) Energy Fuel , vol.24 , Issue.3 , pp. 1788-1800
    • Nashawi, I.S.1    Malallah, A.2    Al-Bisharah, M.3
  • 21
    • 70449421588 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts
    • G. Maggio, and G. Cacciola A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts Energy Policy 37 11 2009 4761 4770
    • (2009) Energy Policy , vol.37 , Issue.11 , pp. 4761-4770
    • Maggio, G.1    Cacciola, G.2
  • 22
    • 0034194849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting world natural gas supply
    • S.M. Al-Fattah, and R.A. Startzman Forecasting world natural gas supply J Petrol Technol 52 5 2000 62 72
    • (2000) J Petrol Technol , vol.52 , Issue.5 , pp. 62-72
    • Al-Fattah, S.M.1    Startzman, R.A.2
  • 23
    • 4344591879 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hubbert - 6: Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019
    • A. Imam, R.A. Startzman, and M.A. Barrufet Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019 Oil Gas J 102 31 2004 20 28 (Pubitemid 39142534)
    • (2004) Oil and Gas Journal , vol.102 , Issue.31 , pp. 20-28
    • Imam, A.1    Startzman, R.A.2    Barrufet, M.A.3
  • 25
    • 33745242531 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time series modeling for US natural gas forecasting
    • Doha, Qatar; November 21-23
    • Al-Fattah SM. Time series modeling for US natural gas forecasting. In: Int petroleum technology conference proc., Doha, Qatar; November 21-23 2005.
    • (2005) Int Petroleum Technology Conference Proc.
    • Al-Fattah, S.M.1
  • 26
    • 67649654339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North american natural gas supply forecast: The Hubbert method including the effects of institutions
    • D.B. Reynolds, and M. Kolodziej North american natural gas supply forecast: the Hubbert method including the effects of institutions Energies 2 2 2009 269 306
    • (2009) Energies , vol.2 , Issue.2 , pp. 269-306
    • Reynolds, D.B.1    Kolodziej, M.2
  • 27
    • 34047153279 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies-A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak
    • DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.011, PII S0301421506004290
    • Z. Tao, and M. Li What is the limit of chinese coal supplies - A STELLA model of Hubbert peak Energy Policy 35 6 2007 3145 3154 (Pubitemid 46508719)
    • (2007) Energy Policy , vol.35 , Issue.6 , pp. 3145-3154
    • Tao, Z.1    Li, M.2
  • 28
    • 64049083307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Historical trends in american coal production and a possible future outlook
    • M. Höök, and K. Aleklett Historical trends in american coal production and a possible future outlook Int J Coal Geol 78 3 2009 201 216
    • (2009) Int J Coal Geol , vol.78 , Issue.3 , pp. 201-216
    • Höök, M.1    Aleklett, K.2
  • 29
    • 67749084134 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting coal production until 2100
    • S.H. Mohr, and G.M. Evans Forecasting coal production until 2100 Fuel 88 11 2009 2059 2067
    • (2009) Fuel , vol.88 , Issue.11 , pp. 2059-2067
    • Mohr, S.H.1    Evans, G.M.2
  • 30
    • 71649116006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China
    • B. Lin, and J. Liu Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China Energy Policy 38 1 2010 512 519
    • (2010) Energy Policy , vol.38 , Issue.1 , pp. 512-519
    • Lin, B.1    Liu, J.2
  • 31
    • 77956886391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis
    • T.W. Patzek, and G.D. Croft A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis Energy 35 8 2010 3109 3122
    • (2010) Energy , vol.35 , Issue.8 , pp. 3109-3122
    • Patzek, T.W.1    Croft, G.D.2
  • 32
    • 77955467407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
    • M. Höök, W. Zittel, J. Schindler, and K. Aleklett Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model Fuel 89 11 2010 3546 3558
    • (2010) Fuel , vol.89 , Issue.11 , pp. 3546-3558
    • Höök, M.1    Zittel, W.2    Schindler, J.3    Aleklett, K.4
  • 33
    • 78650678481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms
    • D. Rutledge Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms Int J Coal Geol 85 1 2011 23 33 < http://rutledge.caltech. edu >
    • (2011) Int J Coal Geol , vol.85 , Issue.1 , pp. 23-33
    • Rutledge, D.1
  • 34
    • 77950985842 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OECD and Joint Transport Research Centre, Discussion Paper No. 2007-18; December Uppsala University, Sweden
    • 2. OECD and Joint Transport Research Centre, Discussion Paper No. 2007-18; December 2007. Uppsala University, Sweden. < http://www. internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/DiscussionPapers/DiscussionPaper18.pdf >.
    • (2007) 2
    • Aleklett, K.1
  • 35
    • 56949090824 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming
    • W.P. Nel, and C.J. Cooper Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming Energy Policy 37 1 2009 166 180
    • (2009) Energy Policy , vol.37 , Issue.1 , pp. 166-180
    • Nel, W.P.1    Cooper, C.J.2
  • 36
    • 77955848077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Physical Geonomics: Combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion
    • Al. Valero, and A. Valero Physical Geonomics: combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion Resour Conserv Recy 54 12 2010 1074 1083
    • (2010) Resour Conserv Recy , vol.54 , Issue.12 , pp. 1074-1083
    • Valero, Al.1    Valero, A.2
  • 37
    • 79952814823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century
    • Al. Valero, and A. Valero A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century Energy 36 4 2011 1848 1854
    • (2011) Energy , vol.36 , Issue.4 , pp. 1848-1854
    • Valero, Al.1    Valero, A.2
  • 38
  • 39
    • 56949095356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regression and time series analysis of the world oil peak of production: Another look
    • P. Caithamer Regression and time series analysis of the world oil peak of production: another look Math Geosci 40 6 2008 653 670
    • (2008) Math Geosci , vol.40 , Issue.6 , pp. 653-670
    • Caithamer, P.1
  • 40
    • 78651449621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EIA Report DOE/EIA-0384(2009), August Energy information administration, US Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Table 11.5: "World Crude Oil Production, 1960-2009"
    • EIA. Annual energy review 2009, Report DOE/EIA-0384(2009), August 2010. Energy information administration, US Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Table 11.5: "World Crude Oil Production, 1960-2009".
    • (2010) Annual Energy Review 2009
  • 41
    • 70349555520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting production from discovery
    • Lisbon, Portugal; May 19-20
    • Laherrère JH. Forecasting production from discovery. In: ASPO Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal; May 19-20 2005. < http://www.editgrid.com/user/ graphoilogy/Oil/Production >.
    • (2005) ASPO Meeting
    • Laherrère, J.H.1
  • 45
    • 84978321542 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future of natural gas supply
    • Berlin, Germany; May 25-26
    • Laherrère JH. Future of natural gas supply. In: 3rd Int. workshop on oil & gas depletion. Berlin, Germany; May 25-26 2004. < http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/JulianDarley.xls >.
    • (2004) 3rd Int. Workshop on Oil & Gas Depletion
    • Laherrère, J.H.1
  • 46
    • 84555173931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • June Beyond Petroleum, London, UK
    • BP statistical review of world energy. June 2011. Beyond Petroleum, London, UK. < http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview >.
    • (2011) BP Statistical Review of World Energy
  • 49
    • 0342499004 scopus 로고
    • The oil supply mountain: Is the summit in sight?
    • OIES Review Series, Oxford
    • Barnes P. The oil supply mountain: is the summit in sight? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, OIES Review Series, Oxford; 1993.
    • (1993) Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
    • Barnes, P.1
  • 50
    • 0005027286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OECD/IEA Organisation for economic co-operation and development. International Energy Agency, Paris, France
    • OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook 1998. Organisation for economic co-operation and development. International Energy Agency, Paris, France; 1998.
    • (1998) World Energy Outlook 1998
  • 51
    • 0013333851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OECD/IEA Organisation for economic co-operation and development. International Energy Agency, Paris, France
    • OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook 2001. Organisation for economic co-operation and development. International Energy Agency, Paris, France; 2001.
    • (2001) World Energy Outlook 2001
  • 52
    • 57549091095 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OECD/IEA Organisation for economic co-operation and development; International Energy Agency, Paris, France
    • OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008. Organisation for economic co-operation and development; International Energy Agency, Paris, France; 2008.
    • (2008) World Energy Outlook 2008
  • 53
    • 39149092894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil forecasts, past and present
    • Uppsala, Sweden; May 23-25
    • Bentley RW. Oil forecasts, past and present. In: Int. workshop on oil depletion. Uppsala, Sweden; May 23-25 2002.
    • (2002) Int. Workshop on Oil Depletion
    • Bentley, R.W.1
  • 54
    • 70449361411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil prophets: Looking at world oil studies over time
    • Paris; May 26-27
    • Andrews S, Udall R. Oil prophets: looking at world oil studies over time. In: ASPO conference. Paris; May 26-27 2003.
    • (2003) ASPO Conference
    • Andrews, S.1    Udall, R.2
  • 55
    • 0141717570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling future liquids production from extrapolation of the past and from ultimates
    • Uppsala, Sweden; May 23-25
    • Laherrère JH. Modelling future liquids production from extrapolation of the past and from ultimates. In: Int. workshop on oil depletion; Uppsala, Sweden; May 23-25 2002.
    • (2002) Int. Workshop on Oil Depletion
    • Laherrère, J.H.1
  • 56
    • 84861972773 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Peak oil and other peaks
    • Meyrin (Geneva), Switzerland; October 3
    • Laherrère JH. Peak oil and other peaks. In: CERN meeting. Meyrin (Geneva), Switzerland; October 3 2005.
    • (2005) CERN Meeting
    • Laherrère, J.H.1
  • 57
  • 58
    • 84861990878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forum APHG (Association des Professeurs Histoire-Géographie) de Reims; March 16
    • Laherrère JH. Energie, Nature, Histoire et Géographie. In: Forum APHG (Association des Professeurs Histoire-Géographie) de Reims; March 16 2011.
    • (2011) Energie, Nature, Histoire et Géographie
    • Laherrère, J.H.1
  • 60
    • 33744826485 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global natural gas reserves - A heuristic viewpoint (Part 2)
    • March 20
    • Sandrea R. Global natural gas reserves - a heuristic viewpoint (Part 2). Middle east economic survey 51(12); March 20 2006.
    • (2006) Middle East Economic Survey , vol.51 , Issue.12
    • Sandrea, R.1
  • 64
    • 0012103429 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WEC World energy council. London, UK
    • WEC, Survey of energy resources 2007. World energy council. London, UK; 2007.
    • (2007) Survey of Energy Resources 2007
  • 65
    • 0012103429 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WEC World energy council. London, UK
    • WEC, Survey of energy resources 2010. World energy council. London, UK; 2010.
    • (2010) Survey of Energy Resources 2010
  • 66
    • 0005992005 scopus 로고
    • Shell development company. Publication No. 95; June
    • Hubbert MK. Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. In: Shell development company. Publication No. 95; June 1956. p. 1-40.
    • (1956) Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels , pp. 1-40
    • Hubbert, M.K.1
  • 67
    • 33750862881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil: Are we running out?
    • D. Deming Oil: are we running out? M.W. Downey, J.C. Threet, W.A. Morgan, Petroleum provinces of the twenty-first century vol. 74 2001 AAPG Memoir 45 55 (Pubitemid 33796381)
    • (2001) AAPG Memoir , vol.74 , pp. 45-55
    • Deming, D.1
  • 68
    • 84861992700 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ASPO-USA Commentary posted on February 17
    • Cohen D (ASPO-USA). Are we in the post-peak era? Commentary posted on February 17, 2009. < http://peakwatch.typepad.com/peak/watch/2009/02/a.html >.
    • (2009) Are We in the Post-peak Era?
    • Cohen, D.1
  • 69
    • 84861977748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OPEC Press Release on 151st (Extraordinary) Oran, Algeria; December 17
    • OPEC Press Release on 151st (Extraordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference, Oran, Algeria; December 17 2008. < http://www.opec.org/opec/web/ en/945.htm >.
    • (2008) Meeting of the OPEC Conference
  • 71
    • 34248145010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Report DOE/NETL-2007/1263, February 5 US Department of Energy and National Energy Technology Laboratory, Washington, DC.
    • Hirsch RL. Peaking of world oil production: recent forecasts. Report DOE/NETL-2007/1263, February 5 2007. US Department of Energy and National Energy Technology Laboratory, Washington, DC.
    • (2007) Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts
    • Hirsch, R.L.1
  • 73
    • 33845402311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil production to track "undulating plateau"
    • C.E.R.A. Study Oil production to track "undulating plateau" Oil Gas J 104 44 2006 32 33
    • (2006) Oil Gas J , vol.104 , Issue.44 , pp. 32-33
    • Study, C.E.R.A.1
  • 74
    • 34547972814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The future of hydrocarbons: Hubbert's peak or a plateau?
    • DOI 10.1130/GSAT01706GW.1
    • E.S. Cheney, and M.W. Hawkes The future of hydrocarbons: Hubbert's peak or a plateau? GSA Today 17 6 2007 69 70 (Pubitemid 47272551)
    • (2007) GSA Today , vol.17 , Issue.6 , pp. 69-70
    • Cheney, E.S.1    Hawkes, M.W.2
  • 75
    • 76049109250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas perspectives
    • Z. Jian, S. Zandong, Z. Yiwei, S. Youshun, and N. Toksoz Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas perspectives Pet Sci 7 1 2010 136 146
    • (2010) Pet Sci , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 136-146
    • Jian, Z.1    Zandong, S.2    Yiwei, Z.3    Youshun, S.4    Toksoz, N.5
  • 76
    • 77955176266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil and natural gas resource assessment: Production growth cycle models
    • Cleveland CJ (ed.-in-chief) Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier
    • Laherrère JH. Oil and natural gas resource assessment: production growth cycle models. In: Cleveland CJ (ed.-in-chief), Encyclopedia of Energy. vol. 4. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier; 2004. p. 617-31.
    • (2004) Encyclopedia of Energy , vol.4 , pp. 617-631
    • Laherrère, J.H.1
  • 78
    • 84861977749 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Personal communication received by E-mail, May 18, 2011. Used with permission
    • Nel WP. Personal communication received by E-mail, May 18, 2011. Used with permission.
    • Nel, W.P.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.