메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 52, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 207-218

Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals

Author keywords

ARFIMA FIGARCH; Long memory; Precious metal prices; Structural breaks

Indexed keywords


EID: 84861851544     PISSN: 10629769     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (140)

References (65)
  • 1
    • 58549084979 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models
    • Agnolucci P. Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models. Energy Economics 2009, 31:316-321.
    • (2009) Energy Economics , vol.31 , pp. 316-321
    • Agnolucci, P.1
  • 2
    • 70349845137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar
    • Akram Q.F. Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics 2009, 31:838-851.
    • (2009) Energy Economics , vol.31 , pp. 838-851
    • Akram, Q.F.1
  • 3
    • 77953694184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade
    • Arouri M., Nguyen D.K. Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade. Energy Policy 2010, 38:4528-4539.
    • (2010) Energy Policy , vol.38 , pp. 4528-4539
    • Arouri, M.1    Nguyen, D.K.2
  • 4
    • 35448957152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oil spills on other commodities
    • Baffes J. Oil spills on other commodities. Resources Policy 2007, 32:126-134.
    • (2007) Resources Policy , vol.32 , pp. 126-134
    • Baffes, J.1
  • 5
    • 0037286212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models
    • Bai J., Perron P. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2003, 18:1-22.
    • (2003) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.18 , pp. 1-22
    • Bai, J.1    Perron, P.2
  • 6
    • 0040485278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
    • Baillie R., Bollerslev T., Mikkelsen H. Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 1996, 74:3-30.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics , vol.74 , pp. 3-30
    • Baillie, R.1    Bollerslev, T.2    Mikkelsen, H.3
  • 7
    • 67349112865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: an adaptive Figarch approach
    • Baillie R.T., Morana C. Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: an adaptive Figarch approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2009, 33:1577-1592.
    • (2009) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.33 , pp. 1577-1592
    • Baillie, R.T.1    Morana, C.2
  • 8
    • 26844499204 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: An overview
    • Banerjee A., Urga G. Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: An overview. Journal of Econometrics 2005, 129:1-34.
    • (2005) Journal of Econometrics , vol.129 , pp. 1-34
    • Banerjee, A.1    Urga, G.2
  • 9
    • 77953024901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets
    • Batten J.A., Ciner C., Lucey B.M. The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets. Resources Policy 2010, 35:65-71.
    • (2010) Resources Policy , vol.35 , pp. 65-71
    • Batten, J.A.1    Ciner, C.2    Lucey, B.M.3
  • 10
    • 33644532899 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series
    • Bhardwaj G., Swanson N.R. An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series. Journal of Econometrics 2006, 131:539-578.
    • (2006) Journal of Econometrics , vol.131 , pp. 539-578
    • Bhardwaj, G.1    Swanson, N.R.2
  • 11
    • 42449156579 scopus 로고
    • Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
    • Bollerslev T. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of econometrics 1986, 31:307-327.
    • (1986) Journal of econometrics , vol.31 , pp. 307-327
    • Bollerslev, T.1
  • 12
    • 0000658462 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling and pricing long-memory in stock market volatility
    • Bollerslev T., Mikkelsen H.O. Modeling and pricing long-memory in stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics 1996, 73:151-184.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics , vol.73 , pp. 151-184
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Mikkelsen, H.O.2
  • 13
    • 0002691865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics
    • Bollerslev T., Mikkelsen H.O. Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics. Journal of Econometrics 1999, 99:75-99.
    • (1999) Journal of Econometrics , vol.99 , pp. 75-99
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Mikkelsen, H.O.2
  • 16
    • 77749301777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long memory in oil and refined products markets
    • Choi K., Hammoudeh S. Long memory in oil and refined products markets. Energy Journal 2009, 30:97-116.
    • (2009) Energy Journal , vol.30 , pp. 97-116
    • Choi, K.1    Hammoudeh, S.2
  • 17
    • 33947198377 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation
    • Choi K., Zivot E. Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation. Journal of International Money and Finance 2007, 26:342-363.
    • (2007) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.26 , pp. 342-363
    • Choi, K.1    Zivot, E.2
  • 18
    • 77953287742 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility
    • Choi K., Yu W.C., Zivot E. Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance 2010, 29:857-875.
    • (2010) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.29 , pp. 857-875
    • Choi, K.1    Yu, W.C.2    Zivot, E.3
  • 20
    • 0035457550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the long run relationship between gold and silver prices: A note
    • Ciner C. On the long run relationship between gold and silver prices: A note. Global Finance Journal 2001, 12:299-303.
    • (2001) Global Finance Journal , vol.12 , pp. 299-303
    • Ciner, C.1
  • 21
    • 79960901444 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Should investors include commodities in their portfolio after all? New evidence
    • Daskalaki C., Skiadopoulos G. Should investors include commodities in their portfolio after all? New evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance 2011, 35:2606-2626.
    • (2011) Journal of Banking and Finance , vol.35 , pp. 2606-2626
    • Daskalaki, C.1    Skiadopoulos, G.2
  • 22
    • 0742324055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Moment and memory properties of linear conditional heteroscedasticity models, and a new model
    • Davidson J. Moment and memory properties of linear conditional heteroscedasticity models, and a new model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 2004, 22:16-29.
    • (2004) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.22 , pp. 16-29
    • Davidson, J.1
  • 23
    • 66049114918 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America
    • Diamandis P.F. International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America. Global Finance Journal 2009, 20:13-30.
    • (2009) Global Finance Journal , vol.20 , pp. 13-30
    • Diamandis, P.F.1
  • 25
    • 0000051984 scopus 로고
    • Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation
    • Engle R.F. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica 1982, 50:987-1007.
    • (1982) Econometrica , vol.50 , pp. 987-1007
    • Engle, R.F.1
  • 26
    • 84963487912 scopus 로고
    • Modelling the persistence of conditional variances
    • Engle R.F., Bollerslev T. Modelling the persistence of conditional variances. Econometric Reviews 1986, 5:81-87.
    • (1986) Econometric Reviews , vol.5 , pp. 81-87
    • Engle, R.F.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 27
    • 0003350474 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring stock market comovements
    • Forbes K., Rigobon R. No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring stock market comovements. Journal of Finance 2002, 57:2223-2261.
    • (2002) Journal of Finance , vol.57 , pp. 2223-2261
    • Forbes, K.1    Rigobon, R.2
  • 28
    • 84986759400 scopus 로고
    • The estimation and application of long memory time series models
    • Geweke J.P., Porter-Hudack S. The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of Time Series Analysis 1983, 4:221-238.
    • (1983) Journal of Time Series Analysis , vol.4 , pp. 221-238
    • Geweke, J.P.1    Porter-Hudack, S.2
  • 29
    • 1942444547 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P500 absolute stock returns
    • Granger C.W.J., Hyung N. Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P500 absolute stock returns. Journal of Empirical Finance 2004, 11:399-421.
    • (2004) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.11 , pp. 399-421
    • Granger, C.W.J.1    Hyung, N.2
  • 30
    • 37349076280 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks
    • Hammoudeh S., Yuan Y. Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks. Energy Economics 2008, 30:606-620.
    • (2008) Energy Economics , vol.30 , pp. 606-620
    • Hammoudeh, S.1    Yuan, Y.2
  • 32
    • 65149101954 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relationships among strategic commodities and with financial variables: A new look
    • Hammoudeh S., Sari R., Ewing B. Relationships among strategic commodities and with financial variables: A new look. Contemporary Economic Policy 2009, 27:251-269.
    • (2009) Contemporary Economic Policy , vol.27 , pp. 251-269
    • Hammoudeh, S.1    Sari, R.2    Ewing, B.3
  • 34
    • 0035186601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do international commodity prices drive natural resource booms? An empirical analysis of small-scale gold mining in Suriname
    • Heemskerk M. Do international commodity prices drive natural resource booms? An empirical analysis of small-scale gold mining in Suriname. Ecological Economics 2001, 39:295-308.
    • (2001) Ecological Economics , vol.39 , pp. 295-308
    • Heemskerk, M.1
  • 35
    • 23044461367 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models
    • Hillebrand E. Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models. Journal of Econometrics 2005, 129:121-138.
    • (2005) Journal of Econometrics , vol.129 , pp. 121-138
    • Hillebrand, E.1
  • 36
    • 0001487364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An efficient taper for potentially overdifferenced long-memory time series
    • Hurvich C.M., Chen W.W. An efficient taper for potentially overdifferenced long-memory time series. Journal of Time Series Analysis 2000, 21:155-180.
    • (2000) Journal of Time Series Analysis , vol.21 , pp. 155-180
    • Hurvich, C.M.1    Chen, W.W.2
  • 37
    • 33749848531 scopus 로고
    • Use of cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes in variance
    • Inclan C., Tiao G.C. Use of cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes in variance. Journal of the American Statistic Association 1994, 89:913-923.
    • (1994) Journal of the American Statistic Association , vol.89 , pp. 913-923
    • Inclan, C.1    Tiao, G.C.2
  • 38
    • 56949088132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets
    • Kang S.H., Kang S.M., Yoon S.M. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets. Energy Economics 2009, 31:119-125.
    • (2009) Energy Economics , vol.31 , pp. 119-125
    • Kang, S.H.1    Kang, S.M.2    Yoon, S.M.3
  • 39
  • 40
    • 34247480179 scopus 로고
    • Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root
    • Kwiatkowski D., Phillips P.C.B., Schmidt P., Shin Y. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics 1992, 54:159-178.
    • (1992) Journal of Econometrics , vol.54 , pp. 159-178
    • Kwiatkowski, D.1    Phillips, P.C.B.2    Schmidt, P.3    Shin, Y.4
  • 41
    • 61849135382 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data
    • Lahiani A., Scaillet O. Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data. International Journal of Forecasting 2009, 25:418-428.
    • (2009) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 418-428
    • Lahiani, A.1    Scaillet, O.2
  • 43
    • 69949144170 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the excess co-movement of commodity prices-A note about the role of fundamental factors in short-run dynamics
    • Lescaroux F. On the excess co-movement of commodity prices-A note about the role of fundamental factors in short-run dynamics. Energy Policy 2009, 37:3906-3913.
    • (2009) Energy Policy , vol.37 , pp. 3906-3913
    • Lescaroux, F.1
  • 46
    • 12144287086 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonstationarities in financial time series, the long-range dependence, and the IGARCH effects
    • Mikosch T., Stǎricǎ C. Nonstationarities in financial time series, the long-range dependence, and the IGARCH effects. Review of Economics and Statistics 2004, 86:378-390.
    • (2004) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.86 , pp. 378-390
    • Mikosch, T.1    Stǎricǎ, C.2
  • 47
    • 0000641348 scopus 로고
    • Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach
    • Nelson D.B. Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica 1991, 59:347-370.
    • (1991) Econometrica , vol.59 , pp. 347-370
    • Nelson, D.B.1
  • 48
    • 84963002108 scopus 로고
    • Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation
    • Newey W.K., West K.D. Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation. Review of Economic Studies 1994, 61:631-654.
    • (1994) Review of Economic Studies , vol.61 , pp. 631-654
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 50
    • 77956888124 scopus 로고
    • Testing for a unit root in time series regression
    • Phillips P.C.B., Perron P. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 1988, 75:335-346.
    • (1988) Biometrika , vol.75 , pp. 335-346
    • Phillips, P.C.B.1    Perron, P.2
  • 51
    • 0024830509 scopus 로고
    • Precious metals: The fundamental determinants of their price behaviour
    • Radetzki M. Precious metals: The fundamental determinants of their price behaviour. Resources Policy 1989, 15:194-208.
    • (1989) Resources Policy , vol.15 , pp. 194-208
    • Radetzki, M.1
  • 52
    • 0033433492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long and short memory conditional heteroscedasticity in estimating the memory parameter of levels
    • Robinson P.M., Hendry D. Long and short memory conditional heteroscedasticity in estimating the memory parameter of levels. Econometric Theory 1999, 15:299-336.
    • (1999) Econometric Theory , vol.15 , pp. 299-336
    • Robinson, P.M.1    Hendry, D.2
  • 53
    • 0032723854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gold prices and gold production: Evidence for South Africa
    • Rockerbie D.W. Gold prices and gold production: Evidence for South Africa. Resources Policy 1999, 25:69-76.
    • (1999) Resources Policy , vol.25 , pp. 69-76
    • Rockerbie, D.W.1
  • 54
    • 33745662678 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility
    • Sadorsky P. Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility. Energy Economics 2006, 28:467-488.
    • (2006) Energy Economics , vol.28 , pp. 467-488
    • Sadorsky, P.1
  • 55
    • 74249107418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate: Are there relationships
    • Sari R., Hammoudeh S., Soytas U. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate: Are there relationships. Energy Economics 2009, 32:351-362.
    • (2009) Energy Economics , vol.32 , pp. 351-362
    • Sari, R.1    Hammoudeh, S.2    Soytas, U.3
  • 56
    • 84861883706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simple (but effective) tests of long memory versus structural breaks. Working Paper, Department of Economics, Queen's University.
    • Shimotsu, K. (2006). Simple (but effective) tests of long memory versus structural breaks. Working Paper, Department of Economics, Queen's University.
    • (2006)
    • Shimotsu, K.1
  • 58
    • 44049114907 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models
    • Sowell F. Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models. Journal of Econometrics 1992, 53:165-188.
    • (1992) Journal of Econometrics , vol.53 , pp. 165-188
    • Sowell, F.1
  • 59
    • 71549150871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey
    • Soytas U., Sari R., Hammoudeh S., Hacihasanoglu E. The oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey. Energy Policy 2009, 37:5557-5566.
    • (2009) Energy Policy , vol.37 , pp. 5557-5566
    • Soytas, U.1    Sari, R.2    Hammoudeh, S.3    Hacihasanoglu, E.4
  • 62
    • 0346724447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A nonlinear long memory model with an application to US unemployment
    • Van Dijk D., Franses P.H., Paap R. A nonlinear long memory model with an application to US unemployment. Journal of Econometrics 2002, 110:135-165.
    • (2002) Journal of Econometrics , vol.110 , pp. 135-165
    • Van Dijk, D.1    Franses, P.H.2    Paap, R.3
  • 64
    • 78149408232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models
    • Wei Y., Wang Y., Huang D. Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models. Energy Economics 2010, 32:1477-1484.
    • (2010) Energy Economics , vol.32 , pp. 1477-1484
    • Wei, Y.1    Wang, Y.2    Huang, D.3
  • 65
    • 85013236579 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A long memory conditional variance model for international grain markets
    • Young J.H. A long memory conditional variance model for international grain markets. Journal of Rural Development 2011, 31:81-103.
    • (2011) Journal of Rural Development , vol.31 , pp. 81-103
    • Young, J.H.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.