Iraq's road back to dictatorship

Survival

Volumn 54, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 147-168

  Dodge, Toby ^a,b  

^a Middle East at the IISS ^*  (United Kingdom)

^b LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84861523086     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2012.690990     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. See Leon E. Panetta, 'U.S. Forces-Iraq End of Mission Ceremony', 15 December 2011, http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech. aspx?speechid=1641.
2. See John D. Banusiewicz, 'Gates Shares Views on Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan', American Forces Press Service, 19 May 2011, http://www.defense.gov//News/NewsArticle.aspx?ID=64011.
3. See Sam Dagher, 'Transcript: Maliki on Iraq's Future', Wall Street Journal, 28 December 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203430404577092512821791908.html.
4. See Tim Arango and Michael S. Schmidt, 'Iraq Denies Legal Immunity to U.S. Troops After 2011', New York Times, 4 October 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/middleeast/iraqis-say-no-toimmunity-for-remaining-americantroops.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast.
5. On the changing parameters of the United States' Iraq policy see Toby Dodge, 'The Ideological Roots of Failure: The Application of Kinetic Neo-Liberalism to Iraq', International Affairs, vol. 86, no. 6, November 2010, pp. 1269-86.
6. 'Inside Iraq', 31 December 2011, http://blogs.mcclatchydc.com/iraq/.
7. Arwa Damon and Mohammed Tawfeeq, 'Iraq's Leader Becoming a New "Dictator", Deputy Warns', CNN, 13 December 2011, http:// articles.cnn.com/2011-2-13/middleeast/world_meast_iraq-maliki_1_al-malikiiraqi-prime-minister-nuri-shiite-andminority-sunni.
8. Iyad Allawi, 'Iraq's Slide toward Renewed Violence', Washington Times, 9 April 2012, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/ apr/9/iraqs-slide-toward-renewedviolence/.
9. See Josh Rogin, 'Kurdish Leader: No to Arming the Syrian Opposition', The Cable, 5 April 2012, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/05/kurdish_leader_no_to_arming_the_syrian_opposition.
10. Joel Wing, 'Charges Against Iraq's Vice President, and Why they Matter', Musings on Iraq, 26 December 2011, http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2011/12/charges-against-iraqsvice-president.html.
11. Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, 'Corruption in Iraq: "Your Son is being Tortured. He Will Die if You Don't Pay"', Guardian, 16 January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/16/corruption-iraq-son-tortured-pay.
12. Roy Gutman, 'Iraqi VP Denies Terror Charges as Sectarian Dispute Continues', McClathy Newspapers, 20 December 2011, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/12/20/133693/iraqi-vp-denies-terror-charges.html#storylink=cpy.
13. 'Iraq Vice-President Hashemi's Guards "Die in Custody"', BBC News, 11 April, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/world-middle-east-17675666.
14. Joel D. Rayburn, 'Rise of the Maliki Regime', Journal of International Security Affairs, no. 22, Spring-Summer 2012 (forthcoming).
15. Ned Parker, 'The Iraq We Left Behind: Welcome to the World's Next Failed State', Foreign Affairs, vol. 91, no. 2, January-February 2012, p. 100.
16. Barak A. Salmoni, 'Responsible Partnership: The Iraqi National Security Sector after 2011', Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus, no. 112, May 2011, p. 14, http://www.washingtoninstitute. org/templateC04.php?CID=343.
17. Linda Robinson, Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way out of Iraq (New York: PublicAffairs, 2008), p. 157.
18. Anthony H. Cordesman with Adam Mausner and Lena Derby, Iraq and the United States: Creating a Strategic Partnership (Washington DC: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, June 2010), p. 268.
19. International Crisis Group, 'Loose Ends: Iraq's Security Forces between US Drawdown and Withdrawal', Middle East Report, no. 99, 26 October 2010, p. 7, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/MiddleEastNorthAfrica/IraqSyriaLebanon/Iraq/99LooseEnds-IraqsSecurityForcesbetweenUSDrawdownandWithdrawal.pdf
20. Shane Bauer, 'Iraq's New Death Squad', The Nation, 22 June 2009, http://www.thenation.com/ doc/20090622/bauer.
21. US Department of Defence, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, December 2009, p. 66, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/Master_9204_29Jan10_FINAL_SIGNED.pdf.
22. Nir Rosen, 'Iraqi Security Forces and the Iraqi Political Mess', The National, 3 September 2010, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/iraqs-fragile-peace-restson-its-own-forces.
23. International Crisis Group, 'Loose Ends', p. 11.
24. Patrick Cockburn, 'The US Can Quit Iraq, or it Can Stay. But it Can't Do Both', Independent, 11 November 2008, www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-theus-can-quit-iraq-or-it-can-stay-but-itcant-do-both-1009598.html.
25. David Ignatius, 'Behind the Carnage in Baghdad', Washington Post, 25 August 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/08/24/AR2009082402491.html.
26. International Crisis Group, 'Loose Ends', pp. 8-10.
27. Shashank Bengali, 'WikiLeaks: Maliki Filled Iraqi Security Services with Shiites', McClatchy Newspapers, 3 December 2010, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/03/104726/us-cables-say-maliki-filled-iraqi.html#ixzz179L9Gy2T.
28. See H.R. McMaster, quoted in 'Secret Iraq', Part 2, BBC 2, 6 October 2010, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/ b00v8t2t.
29. See International Crisis Group, 'Iraq's Provincial Elections: The Stakes', Middle East Report, no. 82, January 2009, p. 17, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middleeast-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iraq/082-iraqs-provincial-electionsthe-stakes.aspx.
30. 'Iraq's Provincial Elections', IISS Strategic Comments, vol. 15, no. 2, February 2009, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-2/.
31. Salam Faraj, 'Iraq Election Officials Bar Nearly 500 Candidates from Poll', AFP, 15 January 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iq5fJFplxZiPms3wzK1upE0lpP1A.
32. Ned Parker and Caesar Ahmed, 'Maliki Seeks Recount in Iraq Elections', Los Angeles Times, 22 March 2010, http://www.latimes.com/news/ nationworld/world/la-fg-iraqelection22-2010mar22,0,5859306.story.
33. Gabriel Gatehouse, '"No Fraud Found" as Iraq Election Recount Ends', BBC News, 14 May 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8684071.stm.
34. Toby Dodge, 'Iraq's Perilous Political Carve-up', IISS Voices, 16 November 2010, http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/ iiss-voices/?blogpost=91.
35. Confidential interview with the author.
36. See Roy Gutman, 'Iraq's Maliki Rebuffs Biden, Signals Move to Shiite Rule', McClatchy Newspapers, 21 December 2011, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/12/21/133802/iraqs-malikirebuffs-biden-signals.html.
37. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress, 30 April 2011, http://www.sigir.mil/files/quarterlyreports/April2011/Report_-_April_2011.pdf.
38. Ibid., p. 73.
39. Tim Arango, 'Iraq Election Official's Arrest Casts Doubt on Prospect for Fair Voting', New York Times, 16 April 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/world/middleeast/iraq-arrest-calls-fair-elections-intoquestion.html?_r=2&ref=middleeast.
40. See The Constitution of Iraq, Articles 116, 117, 119, 120, 121, http://www.uniraq.org/documents/iraqi_constitution.pdf.
41. See Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi, The State of Iraq (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment, 2012), pp. 13-14, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/state_of_iraq.pdf.
42. Dan Morse and Asaad Majeed, 'Iraq Premier Nouri al-Maliki Challenges Restive Provinces', Washington Post, 24 December 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iraq-premier-nouri-al-maliki-chidesrestive-provinces/2011/12/24/ gIQAzegYFP_story.html.
43. Mustafa Habib, 'Niqash Interview with Iraqi Vice President: US Withdrawal "Nothing to Worry About"', 13 December 2011, http://www.niqash.org/articles/?id=2953.
44. See interview with Masoud Barzani, Al-Sharqiyah News Television, 27 March 2012.
45. 'Iraqi Premier Must Not Get F-16s: Kurd President', Gulf Times, 24 April 2012, http://gitm.kcorp.net/index.php?id=598708&news_type=Top&lang=en.
46. Lara Jakes, 'Iraqi Kurd Leader Hints at Secession', AP, 26 April 2012, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/ Middle-East/2012/Apr-26/171467-iraqi-kurd-leader-hints-at-secession. ashx#axzz1tDzoQ05m.
47. Denise Natali, 'Coddling Iraqi Kurds', Foreign Policy, 4 April 2012, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/04/coddling_iraqi_kurds.
48. I thank Ned Parker for drawing my attention to this issue.
49. See James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Benjamin Runkle and Siddharth Mohandas, Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009), p. 111.
50. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress, 30 July 2011, p. 94, http://www.sigir.mil/files/quarterlyreports/July2011/Report_-_July_2011.pdf.
51. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress, 30 January 2012, p. 6, http://www.sigir.mil/files/quarterlyreports/January2012/Report_-_January_2012.pdf.
52. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress, 30 April 2011, p. 119.
53. See International Crisis Group, 'Failing Oversight: Iraq's Unchecked Government', Middle East Report, no. 113, 26 September 2011, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/MiddleEastNorthAfrica/IraqSyriaLebanon/Iraq/113-FailingOversight-Iraqs Unchecked Government.pdf.
54. Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index, 2011,http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/cpi_2011.
55. Corinne Reilly, 'Iraq's Once-envied Health Care System Lost to War, Corruption', McClatchy Newspapers, 17 May 2009, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/68193.html.
56. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress, 30 January 2012, p. 68.
57. The Ministry of Defence employs a total of 279,103 personnel. The Ministry of Interior employs 649,800. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report, January 2012, p. 75.
58. Cordesman, Mausner and Derby, Iraq and the United States: Creating a Strategic Partnership, p. 312.
59. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 30 October 2010, p. 34, http://www.sigir.mil/files/quarterlyreports/October2010/Report_-_October_2010.pdf.