Handling input correlations in pharmacoeconomic models

Value in Health

Volumn 15, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 540-549

  Naveršnik, Klemen ^a   Rojnik, Klemen ^b  

^a Lek dd   (Slovenia)

^b Roche Doo Farmacevtska Dru ba   (Slovenia)

Author keywords

correlation; probabilistic analysis; simulation; uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; COPULAS MODEL; CORRELATION ANALYSIS; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; HEALTH CARE COST; IMAN CONOVER METHOD; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MODEL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; MULTIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS; NORTA METHOD; PATIENT COMPLIANCE; PHARMACOECONOMICS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; QUALITY OF LIFE; TREATMENT RESPONSE;

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; ECONOMICS, PHARMACEUTICAL; MODELS, ECONOMIC; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84861172539     PISSN: 10983015     EISSN: 15244733     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2011.12.008     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. K. Claxton, M. Sculpher, C. McCabe Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra Health Econ 14 2005 339 347 (Pubitemid 40514748)
2. A.H. Briggs Handling uncertainty in cost-effectiveness models Pharmacoeconomics 17 2000 479 500 (Pubitemid 30398806)
3. G. Baio, A.P. Dawid Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economics 2008 Department of Statistical Science, University College London London Research Report No. 292
4. P. Doubilet, C.B. Begg, M.C. Weinstein Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation Med Decis Making 5 1985 157 177 (Pubitemid 16130640)
5. A.E. Smith, P.B. Ryan, J.S. Evans The effect of neglecting correlations when propagating uncertainty and estimating the population distribution of risk Risk Anal 12 1992 467 474 (Pubitemid 23050534)
6. F.C. Wu, Y.P. Tsang Second-order Monte Carlo uncertainty/variability analysis using correlated model parameters: application to salmonid embryo survival risk assessment Ecol Model 177 2004 393 414
7. D.M. Wall Distributions and correlations in Monte Carlo simulation Constr Manag Econ 15 1997 241 258 (Pubitemid 127679853)
8. J. Bukowski, L. Korn, D. Wartenberg Correlated inputs in quantitative risk assessment: the effects of distributional shape Risk Anal 15 1995 215 219
9. Environmental Protection Agency Guiding Principles for Monte Carlo Analysis 1997 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Risk Assessment Forum Washington, DC EPA/630/R-97/001
10. National Institute for Clinical Excellence Guide to the Methods of Technology Appraisal 2008 National Institute for Clinical Excellence London http://www.nice.org.uk/media/B52/A7/TAMethodsGuideUpdatedJune2008.pdf [Accessed October 17, 2010]
11. L. Andronis, P. Barton, S. Bryan Sensitivity analysis in economic evaluation: an audit of NICE current practice and a review of its use and value in decision-making Health Technol Assess 13 2009 1 61
12. J. Rice Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis (2nd ed.) 1995 Duxbury Belmont, CA
13. S. Ferson, R.B. Nelson, J. Hajagos Dependence in Probabilistic Modeling, Dempster-Shafer Theory, and Probability Bounds Analysis 2004 Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM Report No. SAND2004-3072
14. K. Thavorn, N. Chaiyakunapruk A cost-effectiveness analysis of a community pharmacist-based smoking cessation programme in Thailand Tob Control 17 2008 177 182
15. A.G. Chessa, R. Dekker, B. Van Vliet Correlations in uncertainty analysis for medical decision making: an application to heart-valve replacement Med Decis Making 19 1999 276 286 (Pubitemid 29321269)
16. E. Kaltenthaler, J. Brazier, E. De Nigris Computerized cognitive behavior therapy for depression and anxiety update: a systematic review and economic evaluation Health Technol Assess 10 2006 1 168
17. J.W. Shaw, W.M. Zachry Application of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in decision analytic modeling Formulary 37 2002 32 40 (Pubitemid 34073925)
18. D. Vose Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (3rd ed.) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chichester, UK
19. A.H. Briggs, A.E. Ades, M.J. Price Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework Med Decis Making 23 2003 341 350 (Pubitemid 36899100)
20. R.M. Harbord, J.J. Deeks, M. Egger A unification of models for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies Biostatistics 8 2007 239 251 (Pubitemid 46569586)
21. J.B. Reitsma, A.S. Glas, A.W.S. Rutjes Bivariate analysis of sensitivity and specificity produces informative summary measures in diagnostic reviews J Clin Epidemiol 58 2005 982 990 (Pubitemid 41316441)
22. A.E. Ades, G. Lu Correlations between parameters in risk models: estimation and propagation of uncertainty by Markov chain Monte Carlo Risk Anal 23 2003 1165 1172 (Pubitemid 38045096)
23. A.E. Ades, K. Claxton, M. Schulper Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis Health Econ 15 2006 373 381
24. H. Joe Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts 1997 Chapman & Hall London
25. P. Embrechts, A. McNeil, D. Straumann Correlation and dependence in risk management: properties and pitfalls M.A.H. Dempster, Risk Management: Value at Risk and Beyond 2002 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK
26. C.B. Bell Mutual information and maximal correlation as measures of dependence Ann Math Statist 33 1962 587 595
27. P.W. Groeneveld, J.L. Kwong, Y. Liu Cost-effectiveness of automated external defibrillators on airlines JAMA 286 2001 1482 1489 (Pubitemid 33015505)
28. B. Biller, S. Ghosh Dependence modeling for stochastic simulation R.G. Ingalls, M.D. Rossetti, J.S. Smith, B.A. Peters, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference 2004 IEEE Press Pistacaway, NJ
29. A.J. McNeil, R. Frey, P. Embrechts Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques, Tools Princeton Series in Finance 2005 Princeton University Press Princeton, NJ
30. A.M. Law, W.D. Kelton Simulation Modeling and Analysis 3rd ed. 2000 McGraw-Hill New York
31. L. Devroye Non-uniform Random Variate Generation 1986 Springer New York
32. N.L. Johnson Bivariate distributions based on simple translation systems Biometrika 36 1949 297 304
33. I.D. Hill, R. Hill, R.L. Holder Fitting Johnson curves by moments Appl Stat 25 1976 180 189
34. P.M. Stanfield, J.R. Wilson, G.A. Mirka Multivariate input modelling with Johnson distributions J.M. Charnes, D.J. Morrice, D.T. Brunner, J.J. Swain, Proceedings of the 1996 Winter Simulation Conference 1996 IEEE Press Pistacaway, NJ
35. R.B. Nelsen An Introduction to Copulas 2nd ed. 2006 Springer New York
36. K. Aas Modelling the Dependence Structure of Financial Assets: A Survey of Four Copulas 2004 Norwegian Computing Center Oslo, Norway SAMBA/22/04
37. C.N. Haas On modeling correlated random variables in risk assessment Risk Anal 19 1999 1205 1214 (Pubitemid 30004656)
38. M.C. Cario, B.L. Nelson Modeling and Generating Random Vectors with Arbitrary Marginal Distributions and Correlation Matrix 1997 Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Nortwestern University Evanston, IL Technical Report
39. S. Ghosh, S.G. Henderson Properties of the NORTA method in higher dimensions E. Yucesan, C.H. Chen, J.L. Snowdown, Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference 2002 IEEE Press Pistacaway, NJ
40. D.M. Ghiocel Stochastic simulation methods for engineering predictions E. Nikolaidis, D.M. Ghiocel, S. Singhal, Engineering Design Reliability Handbook 2004 CRC Press Boca Raton, FL
41. P. Jäckel Monte Carlo Methods in Finance 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chichester, UK
42. R.L. Iman, W.J. Conover A distribution-free approach to inducing rank correlation among input variables Commun Stat - Simul Comput B11 1982 311 334
43. S.J. Mildenhall The Report of the Research Working Party on Correlations and Dependencies Among All Risk Sources, Part 1: Correlation and Aggregate Loss Distributions with an Emphasis on the Iman-Conover method 2005 Casualty Actuarial Society Forum Arlington, VA
44. D.E. Clark Computational methods for probabilistic decision trees Comput Biomed Res 30 1997 19 33 (Pubitemid 27241107)
45. R Development Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2006 R Foundation for Statistical Computing Vienna, Austria
46. T. Mikosch Copulas: tales and facts Extremes 9 2006 3 20 (Pubitemid 44835697)
47. T. Mikosch Copulas: tales and facts - rejoinder Extremes 9 2006 55 62
48. K. Rojnik, K. Naveršnik, T. Mateović-Rojnik Probabilistic cost-effectiveness modeling of different breast cancer screening policies in Slovenia Value Health 11 2008 139 148 (Pubitemid 351473600)
49. K. Rojnik, K. Naveršnik Gaussian process metamodeling in Bayesian value of information analysis: a case of the complex health economic model for breast cancer screening Value Health 11 2008 240 250 (Pubitemid 351473618)