메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 38, Issue 9-10, 2012, Pages 1829-1848

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: Climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

Author keywords

Amazon region; Climate change; Downscaling; South America

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DOWNSCALING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MOISTURE TRANSFER; RAINFALL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT;

EID: 84860343606     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (235)

References (61)
  • 1
    • 77951766975 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of regional seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system over South America
    • doi: 10. 1007/s00704-009-0165-2
    • Alves LM, Marengo JA (2009) Assessment of regional seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system over South America. Theor Appl Climatol. doi: 10. 1007/s00704-009-0165-2.
    • (2009) Theor Appl Climatol
    • Alves, L.M.1    Marengo, J.A.2
  • 2
    • 84872990229 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aquecimento Global e a nova Geografia da Produção Agrícola no Brasil, EMBRAPA (Cepagri/Unicamp)
    • Assad E, Pinto HS (2008) Aquecimento Global e a nova Geografia da Produção Agrícola no Brasil, EMBRAPA (Cepagri/Unicamp). São Paulo-Agosto de 2008. http://www.climaeagricultura.org.br.
    • (2008) São Paulo-Agosto De 2008
    • Assad, E.1    Pinto, H.S.2
  • 3
    • 0022831164 scopus 로고
    • A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air-mass data sets
    • doi:10.1002/qj.49711247308
    • Betts AK, Miller MT (1986) A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air-mass data sets. Q J R Meteorol Soc 112: 693-703. doi: 10. 1002/qj. 49711247308.
    • (1986) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.112 , pp. 693-703
    • Betts, A.K.1    Miller, M.T.2
  • 4
    • 0001210943 scopus 로고
    • NMC notes. The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: description and forecast examples
    • Black TL (1994) NMC notes. The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: description and forecast examples. Weather Anal Forecast 9: 256-278.
    • (1994) Weather Anal Forecast , vol.9 , pp. 256-278
    • Black, T.L.1
  • 6
    • 77149172854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: validity and limitations
    • doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9737-5
    • Cabré MF, Solman S, Nuñez M (2010) Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: validity and limitations. Clim Change 98: 449-469. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-009-9737-5.
    • (2010) Clim Change , vol.98 , pp. 449-469
    • Cabré, M.F.1    Solman, S.2    Nuñez, M.3
  • 7
    • 77954446904 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drought in Brazil during summer and fall 2001 and associated atmospheric circulation fields
    • Cavalcanti IFA, Kousky VE (2001) Drought in Brazil during summer and fall 2001 and associated atmospheric circulation fields. Climanalise 2(01): 1-10.
    • (2001) Climanalise , vol.2 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-10
    • Cavalcanti, I.F.A.1    Kousky, V.E.2
  • 9
    • 0033793057 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended range forecasts over South America using the regional Eta Model
    • Chou SC, Nunes AMB, Cavalcanti IFA (2000) Extended range forecasts over South America using the regional Eta Model. J Geophys Res 105(D8): 10147-10160.
    • (2000) J Geophys Res , vol.105 , Issue.D8 , pp. 10147-10160
    • Chou, S.C.1    Nunes, A.M.B.2    Cavalcanti, I.F.A.3
  • 10
    • 80052525789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulations with the coupled Eta/SSiB Model over South America
    • doi: 10. 1029/2000JD000270
    • Chou SC, Tanajura CAS, Xue Y, Nobre CA (2002) Simulations with the coupled Eta/SSiB Model over South America. J Geophys Res 107(20): 8088. doi: 10. 1029/2000JD000270.
    • (2002) J Geophys Res , vol.107 , Issue.20 , pp. 8088
    • Chou, S.C.1    Tanajura, C.A.S.2    Xue, Y.3    Nobre, C.A.4
  • 11
    • 22744439122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America
    • Chou SC, Bustamante JF, Gomes JL (2005) Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America. Nonlinear Process Geophys 12(4): 537-555.
    • (2005) Nonlinear Process Geophys , vol.12 , Issue.4 , pp. 537-555
    • Chou, S.C.1    Bustamante, J.F.2    Gomes, J.L.3
  • 14
    • 0002331210 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The internal climate variability of a HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
    • doi:10.1007/s003820000094
    • Collins M, Tett SFB, Cooper C (2001) The internal climate variability of a HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 17: 61-81. doi: 10. 1007/s003820000094.
    • (2001) Clim Dyn , vol.17 , pp. 61-81
    • Collins, M.1    Tett, S.F.B.2    Cooper, C.3
  • 17
    • 0034626765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Acceleration of global; warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
    • Cox P, Betts R, Jones C, Spall S, Totterdell T (2000) Acceleration of global; warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187.
    • (2000) Nature , vol.408 , pp. 184-187
    • Cox, P.1    Betts, R.2    Jones, C.3    Spall, S.4    Totterdell, T.5
  • 18
  • 20
    • 67650422498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: an evaluation of regional climate model version 3 simulations
    • doi:10.1029/2008JD010212
    • da Rocha RP, Morales CA, Cuadra SV, Ambrizzi T (2009) Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: an evaluation of regional climate model version 3 simulations. J Geophys Res 114: D10108. doi: 10. 1029/2008JD010212.
    • (2009) J Geophys Res , vol.114
    • da Rocha, R.P.1    Morales, C.A.2    Cuadra, S.V.3    Ambrizzi, T.4
  • 21
    • 1442311266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of NOAH land surface advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta Model
    • doi:10.1029/2002JD003246
    • Ek MB, Mitchell KE, Lin Y, Rogers E, Grummen P, Koren V, Gayno G, Tarpley JD (2003) Implementation of NOAH land surface advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta Model. Geophys Res 108: 8851. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD003246.
    • (2003) Geophys Res , vol.108 , pp. 8851
    • Ek, M.B.1    Mitchell, K.E.2    Lin, Y.3    Rogers, E.4    Grummen, P.5    Koren, V.6    Gayno, G.7    Tarpley, J.D.8
  • 22
    • 0016532783 scopus 로고
    • The simplified exchange approximation: a new method for radiative transfer calculations
    • Fels SB, Schwarzkopf MD (1975) The simplified exchange approximation: a new method for radiative transfer calculations. J Atmos Sci 32: 1475-1488.
    • (1975) J Atmos Sci , vol.32 , pp. 1475-1488
    • Fels, S.B.1    Schwarzkopf, M.D.2
  • 23
    • 66249119261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The coastal winds off western subtropical South America in future climate scenarios
    • doi:10.1002/joc.1716
    • Garreaud R, Falvey M (2008) The coastal winds off western subtropical South America in future climate scenarios. Int J Climatol 29: 543-554. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1716.
    • (2008) Int J Climatol , vol.29 , pp. 543-554
    • Garreaud, R.1    Falvey, M.2
  • 24
    • 41649114522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of South Amazon dry-season climate variability and change
    • Good P, Lowe J, Collins M, Moufouma-Okia W (2008) An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of South Amazon dry-season climate variability and change. Philos Trans R Soc Ser B 363: 1761-1766.
    • (2008) Philos Trans R Soc Ser B , vol.363 , pp. 1761-1766
    • Good, P.1    Lowe, J.2    Collins, M.3    Moufouma-Okia, W.4
  • 25
    • 0034025893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transport in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
    • Gordon C et al (2000) Simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transport in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16: 147-168.
    • (2000) Clim Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 147-168
    • Gordon, C.1
  • 26
    • 41649100834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature
    • Harris P, Huntingford C, Cox PM (2008) Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature. Philos Trans R Soc Ser B 363: 1753-1759.
    • (2008) Philos Trans R Soc Ser B , vol.363 , pp. 1753-1759
    • Harris, P.1    Huntingford, C.2    Cox, P.M.3
  • 27
    • 0002702848 scopus 로고
    • Forward-backward scheme modified to prevent two grid-interval noise and its application in sigma coordinate models
    • Janjic ZI (1979) Forward-backward scheme modified to prevent two grid-interval noise and its application in sigma coordinate models. Contrib Atmos Phys 52: 69-84.
    • (1979) Contrib Atmos Phys , vol.52 , pp. 69-84
    • Janjic, Z.I.1
  • 28
    • 0028607757 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain Eta Coordinate Model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer and turbulence closure schemes
    • Janjic ZI (1994) The step-mountain Eta Coordinate Model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer and turbulence closure schemes. Mon Weather Rev 122: 927-945.
    • (1994) Mon Weather Rev , vol.122 , pp. 927-945
    • Janjic, Z.I.1
  • 29
    • 0015960869 scopus 로고
    • A parameterization of the absorption of solar radiation in earth's atmosphere
    • Lacis AA, Hansen JE (1974) A parameterization of the absorption of solar radiation in earth's atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 31: 118-133.
    • (1974) J Atmos Sci , vol.31 , pp. 118-133
    • Lacis, A.A.1    Hansen, J.E.2
  • 30
    • 33644936408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4
    • doi:10.1029/2005JD006355
    • Li W, Fu R, Dickinson RE (2006) Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4. J Geophys Res 111: D02111. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006355.
    • (2006) J Geophys Res , vol.111
    • Li, W.1    Fu, R.2    Dickinson, R.E.3
  • 35
    • 71449109811 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system
    • Marengo JA, Jones R, Alves LM, Valverde MC (2009a) Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. Int J Climatol 15: 2241-2255.
    • (2009) Int J Climatol , vol.15 , pp. 2241-2255
    • Marengo, J.A.1    Jones, R.2    Alves, L.M.3    Valverde, M.C.4
  • 36
    • 77958151038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future change of climate in South America in the late XXI century: Intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models
    • doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0721-6
    • Marengo JA, Ambrizzi T, Rocha RP, Alves LM, Cuadra SV, Valverde MC, Ferraz SET, Torres RR, Santos DC (2009b) Future change of climate in South America in the late XXI century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0721-6.
    • (2009) Clim Dyn
    • Marengo, J.A.1    Ambrizzi, T.2    Rocha, R.P.3    Alves, L.M.4    Cuadra, S.V.5    Valverde, M.C.6    Ferraz, S.E.T.7    Torres, R.R.8    Santos, D.C.9
  • 38
    • 0000265493 scopus 로고
    • A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for boundary layers
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031
    • Mellor GL, Yamada T (1974) A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for boundary layers. J Atmos Sci 31: 1791-1806. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0469(1974)031.
    • (1974) J Atmos Sci , vol.31 , pp. 1791-1806
    • Mellor, G.L.1    Yamada, T.2
  • 40
    • 0000358006 scopus 로고
    • A blocking technique for representation of mountains in atmospheric models
    • Mesinger F (1984) A blocking technique for representation of mountains in atmospheric models. Rivista di Meteorologia Aeronautica 44(1-4): 195-202.
    • (1984) Rivista Di Meteorologia Aeronautica , vol.44 , Issue.1-4 , pp. 195-202
    • Mesinger, F.1
  • 41
    • 0024249870 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain coordinate: Model description description and performance for cases of Alpine lee cyclogenesis and for a case of Appalachian redevelopment
    • Mesinger F, Janjic ZI, Nickovic S, Gavrilov D, Deaven DG (1988) The step-mountain coordinate: Model description description and performance for cases of Alpine lee cyclogenesis and for a case of Appalachian redevelopment. Mon Weather Rev 116: 1493-1518.
    • (1988) Mon Weather Rev , vol.116 , pp. 1493-1518
    • Mesinger, F.1    Janjic, Z.I.2    Nickovic, S.3    Gavrilov, D.4    Deaven, D.G.5
  • 42
    • 27844519343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate
    • Milly PCD et al (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438: 347-350.
    • (2005) Nature , vol.438 , pp. 347-350
    • Milly, P.C.D.1
  • 43
    • 4043124611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
    • doi:10.1038/nature02771
    • Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA (2004) Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430: 768-772. doi: 10. 1038/nature02771.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.430 , pp. 768-772
    • Murphy, J.M.1    Sexton, D.M.H.2    Barnett, D.N.3    Jones, G.S.4    Webb, M.J.5    Collins, M.6    Stainforth, D.A.7
  • 46
    • 71449096484 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mean climate and annual cycle in a regional climate change experiment over Southern South America
    • In: Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO, 24-28 April 2006. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil
    • Nunez MN, Solman S, Cabre M (2006) Mean climate and annual cycle in a regional climate change experiment over Southern South America. II: climate change scenarios (2081-2090). In: Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO, 24-28 April 2006. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, pp 325-331.
    • (2006) II: Climate Change Scenarios (2081-2090) , pp. 325-331
    • Nunez, M.N.1    Solman, S.2    Cabre, M.3
  • 47
    • 67349168405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional Climate change experiments over southern South America. II: Climate change scenarios in the late twenty-first century
    • doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0449-8
    • Nunez MN, Solman SA, Cabre MF (2008) Regional Climate change experiments over southern South America. II: climate change scenarios in the late twenty-first century. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0449-8.
    • (2008) Clim Dyn
    • Nunez, M.N.1    Solman, S.A.2    Cabre, M.F.3
  • 48
    • 70849095716 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate downscaling over South America for 1961-1970 using the Eta Model
    • doi: 10. 1007/s00704-009-0123-z
    • Pesquero JF, Chou SC, Nobre CA, Marengo JA (2009) Climate downscaling over South America for 1961-1970 using the Eta Model. Theor Appl Climatol. doi: 10. 1007/s00704-009-0123-z.
    • (2009) Theor Appl Climatol
    • Pesquero, J.F.1    Chou, S.C.2    Nobre, C.A.3    Marengo, J.A.4
  • 49
    • 0034108544 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact o f new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model
    • Pope V, Gallani M, Rowtree P, Stratton R (2000) The impact o f new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model. Clim Dyn 16: 123-146.
    • (2000) Clim Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 123-146
    • Pope, V.1    Gallani, M.2    Rowtree, P.3    Stratton, R.4
  • 51
    • 69949083681 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario
    • doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1800
    • Soares W, Marengo J (2008) Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario. Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1800 http://www.interscience.wiley.com.
    • (2008) Int J Climatol
    • Soares, W.1    Marengo, J.2
  • 52
    • 0344172178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Local estimates of global climate change: a statistical downscaling approach
    • doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19990630)19:8
    • Solman SA, Nuñez MN (1999) Local estimates of global climate change: a statistical downscaling approach. Int J Climatol 19: 835-861. doi: 10. 1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19990630)19: 8.
    • (1999) Int J Climatol , vol.19 , pp. 835-861
    • Solman, S.A.1    Nuñez, M.N.2
  • 53
    • 39449121108 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0304-3
    • Solman SA, Nuñez MN, Cabré MF (2008) Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate. Clim Dyn 30: 533-552. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-007-0304-3.
    • (2008) Clim Dyn , vol.30 , pp. 533-552
    • Solman, S.A.1    Nuñez, M.N.2    Cabré, M.F.3
  • 54
    • 78650126991 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summer soil-precipitation coupling in South America
    • doi: 10. 1111/j. 1600-0870. 2010. 00468. x
    • Sorensson A, Menendez CG (2010) Summer soil-precipitation coupling in South America. Tellus. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1600-0870. 2010. 00468. x.
    • (2010) Tellus
    • Sorensson, A.1    Menendez, C.G.2
  • 55
    • 77149139145 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model
    • doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9740-x
    • Sorensson A, Menéndez CG, Samuelsson P, Willén U, Hansson U (2010a) Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model. Clim Change 98: 429-447. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-009-9740-x.
    • (2010) Clim Change , vol.98 , pp. 429-447
    • Sorensson, A.1    Menéndez, C.G.2    Samuelsson, P.3    Willén, U.4    Hansson, U.5
  • 56
    • 78649771421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projected precipitation changes in South America: a dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
    • Sorensson A, Menendez CG, Ruscica R, Alexander P, Samuelsson P, Willen U (2010b) Projected precipitation changes in South America: a dynamical downscaling within CLARIS. Meteorol Z 19(4): 347-355.
    • (2010) Meteorol Z , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 347-355
    • Sorensson, A.1    Menendez, C.G.2    Ruscica, R.3    Alexander, P.4    Samuelsson, P.5    Willen, U.6
  • 57
    • 13444269104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in projections of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
    • doi:10.1038/nature03301
    • Stainforth DA et al (2005) Uncertainty in projections of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433: 403-406. doi: 10. 1038/nature03301.
    • (2005) Nature , vol.433 , pp. 403-406
    • Stainforth, D.A.1
  • 58
    • 77951652864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • REDD and PINC: a new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global "eco-utilities", IOP
    • doi:10.1088/1755-1315/8/1/012005
    • Trivedi MR, Mitchell AW, Mardas N, Parker C, Watson JE, Nobre AD (2009) REDD and PINC: a new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global "eco-utilities", IOP. Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci 8: 012005. doi: 10. 1088/1755-1315/8/1/012005.
    • (2009) Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci , vol.8 , pp. 012005
    • Trivedi, M.R.1    Mitchell, A.W.2    Mardas, N.3    Parker, C.4    Watson, J.E.5    Nobre, A.D.6
  • 59
    • 62749129481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change projections for the tropical Andes using a regional climate model: Temperature and precipitation simulations for the end of the 21st century
    • doi: 10. 1029/2008JD011021
    • Urrutia R, Vuille M (2009) Climate change projections for the tropical Andes using a regional climate model: temperature and precipitation simulations for the end of the 21st century. J Geophys Res 114: D02108. doi: 10. 1029/2008JD011021.
    • (2009) J Geophys Res , vol.114
    • Urrutia, R.1    Vuille, M.2
  • 61
    • 0031225097 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of the cloud prediction scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP
    • Zhao Q, Black TL, Baldwin ME (1997) Implementation of the cloud prediction scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP. Weather Forecast 12: 697-712.
    • (1997) Weather Forecast , vol.12 , pp. 697-712
    • Zhao, Q.1    Black, T.L.2    Baldwin, M.E.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.