Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: Inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Ecological Applications

Volumn 22, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 880-893

  Buhle, Eric R ^a,b   Feist, Blake E ^b   Hilborn, Ray ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b ALASKA FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Allee effect; Bayesian decision analysis; Climate effects; Deviance information criterion (DIC); Invasion control; Smooth cordgrass; Spartina alterniflora; Threshold

Indexed keywords

AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION; ALLEE EFFECT; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BIOLOGICAL INVASION; BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTION; CLIMATE EFFECT; DECISION ANALYSIS; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; GRASS; INVASIVE SPECIES; PARAMETERIZATION; POPULATION REGULATION; PROBABILITY; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); RESTORATION ECOLOGY; SEEDLING EMERGENCE; THRESHOLD; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; ECOSYSTEM; INTRODUCED SPECIES; PHYSIOLOGY; POACEAE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; UNITED STATES;

DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; ECOSYSTEM; INTRODUCED SPECIES; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POACEAE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; WASHINGTON;

UNITED STATES; WASHINGTON [UNITED STATES]; WILLAPA BAY;

SPARTINA ALTERNIFLORA;

EID: 84860251689     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/11-0593.1     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Barlocher, F., and V. D. Moulton. 1999. Spartina alterniflora in two New Brunswick salt marshes. I. Growth and decomposition. Bulletin of Marine Science 64:299-305. (Pubitemid 34099201)
2. Berger, J. O. 1993. Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
3. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
4. Caley, P., W. M. Lonsdale, and P. C. Pheloung. 2006. Quantifying uncertainty in predictions of invasiveness, with emphasis on weed risk assessment. Biological Invasions 8:1595-1604. (Pubitemid 44853806)
5. Callaway, J. C., and M. N. Josselyn. 1992. The introduction and spread of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) in South San Francisco Bay. Estuaries 15:218-226.
6. Civille, J. C., K. Sayce, S. D. Smith, and D. R. Strong. 2005. Reconstructing a century of Spartina alterniflora invasion with historical records and contemporary remote sensing. Ecoscience 12:330-338. (Pubitemid 41472527)
7. Clark, J. S. 2005. Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. Ecology Letters 8:2-14. (Pubitemid 40172132)
8. Crooks, J. A. 2005. Lag times and exotic species: the ecology and management of biological invasions in slow-motion. Ecoscience 12:316-329. (Pubitemid 41472526)
9. Daehler, C. C., and D. R. Strong. 1994. Variable reproductive output among clones of Spartina alterniflora (Poaceae) invading San Francisco Bay, California: the influence of herbivory, pollination, and establishment site. American Journal of Botany 81:307-313. (Pubitemid 2071097)
10. Daehler, C. C., and D. R. Strong. 1995. Impact of high herbivore densities on introduced smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora, invading San Francisco Bay, California. Estuaries 18:409-417. (Pubitemid 26449007)
11. Daehler, C. C., and D. R. Strong. 1996. Status, prediction and prevention of introduced cordgrass Spartina spp. invasions in Pacific estuaries, USA. Biological Conservation 78:51-58.
12. Davis, H. G. 2005. r-selected traits in an invasive population. Evolutionary Ecology 19:255-274. (Pubitemid 41298119)
13. Davis, H. G., C. M. Taylor, J. C. Civille, and D. R. Strong. 2004a. An Allee effect at the front of a plant invasion: Spartina in a Pacific estuary. Journal of Ecology 92:321-327. (Pubitemid 38448468)
14. Davis, H. G., C. M. Taylor, J. G. Lambrinos, and D. R. Strong. 2004b. Pollen limitation causes an Allee effect in a windpollinated invasive grass (Spartina alterniflora). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 101:13804-13807. (Pubitemid 39298488)
15. Davis, M. A., J. P. Grime, and K. Thompson. 2000. Fluctuating resources in plant communities: a general theory of invasibility. Journal of Ecology 88:528-534. (Pubitemid 30399963)
16. Dennis, B. 1989. Allee effects: population growth, critical density, and the chance of extinction. Natural Resource Modeling 3:481-538.
17. Dennis, B., J. C. Civille, and D. R. Strong. 2011. Lateral spread of invasive Spartina alterniflora in uncrowded environments. Biological Invasions 13:401-411.
18. Dethier, M. N., and S. D. Hacker. 2005. Physical factors vs. biotic resistance in controlling the invasion of an estuarine marsh grass. Ecological Applications 15:1273-1283. (Pubitemid 41061042)
19. Drake, J. M. 2005. Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe (Gymnoce-phalus cernuus). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 62:1053-1059. (Pubitemid 41284436)
20. Dumbauld, B. R., M. Peoples, L. Holomb, J. Tagart, and S. Ratchford. 1995. The potential influence of cordgrass Spartina alterniflora on clam resources in Willapa Bay, Washington. Journal of Shellfish Research 14:1-278.
21. Epanchin-Niell, R. S., and A. Hastings. 2010. Controlling established invaders: integrating economics and spread dynamics to determine optimal management. Ecology Letters 13:528-541.
22. Feist, B. E. 1999. A spatio-temporal analysis of the environmental and climatic factors controlling the expansion of Spartina alterniflora in Willapa Bay, Washington. Dissertation. University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
23. Feist, B. E., and C. A. Simenstad. 2000. Expansion rates and recruitment frequency of exotic smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora (Loisel), colonizing unvegetated littoral flats in Willapa Bay, Washington. Estuaries 23:267-274. (Pubitemid 30388076)
24. Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, and D. B. Rubin. 2004. Bayesian data analysis. Chapman and Hall, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
25. Gray, A. J., and R. J. Mogg. 2001. Climate impacts on pioneer saltmarsh plants. Climate Research 18:105-112. (Pubitemid 33119339)
26. Gregory, S. D., C. J. A. Bradshaw, B. W. Brook, and F. Courchamp. 2010. Limited evidence for the demographic Allee effect from numerous species across taxa. Ecology 91:2151-2161.
27. Grevstad, F. S. 2005. Simulating control strategies for a spatially structured weed invasion: Spartina alterniflora (Loisel) in Pacific Coast estuaries. Biological Invasions 7:665-677. (Pubitemid 40837346)
28. Halpert, M. S., and C. F. Ropelewski. 1992. Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 5:577-593.
29. Hartley, S., R. Harris, and P. J. Lester. 2006. Quantifying uncertainty in the potential distribution of an invasive species: climate and the Argentine ant. Ecology Letters 9:1068-1079. (Pubitemid 44267790)
30. Hartman, J. M. 1988. Recolonization of small disturbance patches in a New England salt marsh. American Journal of Botany 75:1625-1631. (Pubitemid 19324656)
31. Harwood, J., and K. Stokes. 2003. Coping with uncertainty in ecological advice: lessons from fisheries. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 18:617-622. (Pubitemid 37399481)
32. Hastings, A., K., et al. 2005. The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence. Ecology Letters 8:91-101.
33. Hedge, P., L. K. Kriwoken, and K. Patten. 2003. A review of Spartina management in Washington State, U.S. Journal of Aquatic Plant Management 41:82-90. (Pubitemid 38370462)
34. Higgins, S. I., and D. M. Richardson. 1996. A review of models of alien plant spread. Ecological Modelling 87:249-265.
35. Hilborn, R., and M. Mangel. 1997. The ecological detective. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
36. Hobbs, N. T., and R. Hilborn. 2006. Alternatives to statistical hypothesis testing in ecology: a guide to self teaching. Ecological Applications 16:5-19.
37. Holling, C. S. 1973. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4:1-23.
38. Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
39. Johnson, J. B., and K. S. Omland. 2004. Model selection in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19:101-108. (Pubitemid 38105895)
40. Kistler, R., et al. 2001. The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82:247-267. (Pubitemid 33622659)
41. Liermann, M., and R. Hilborn. 1997. Depensation in fish stocks: a hierarchic Bayesian meta-analysis. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 54:1976-1984. (Pubitemid 28038050)
42. Loebl, M., J. E. E. van Beusekom, and K. Reise. 2006. Is spread of the neophyte Spartina anglica recently enhanced by increasing temperatures? Aquatic Ecology 40:315-324. (Pubitemid 44453467)
43. McEnnulty, F. R., N. J. Bax, B. Schaffelke, and M. L. Campbell. 2000. Section II: a literature review of rapid response options for the control of ABWMAC listed species and related taxa in Australia. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Marine Research, Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests, Tasmania, Australia.
44. Metcalfe, W. S., A. M. Ellison, and M. D. Bertness. 1986. Survivorship and spatial development of Spartina alterniflora Loisel (Gramineae) seedlings in a New England salt marsh. Annals of Botany 58:249-258.
45. Moody, M. E. 1988. Controlling the spread of plant invasions: the importance of nascent foci. Journal of Applied Ecology 25:1009-1021. (Pubitemid 19325967)
46. Mooney, H. A., and R. J. Hobbs. 2000. Invasive species in a changing world. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
47. Mote, P. W., E. A. Parson, A. F. Hamlet, W. S. Keeton, D. Lettenmaier, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles, D. W. Peterson, D. L. Peterson, R. Slaughter, and A. K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climatic change: the water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 61:45-88. (Pubitemid 37496468)
48. Mumford, T. F., Jr., P. Peyton, J. R. Sayce, and S. Harbell. 1991. Spartina workshop record: Seattle, Washington, November 14-15, 1990. Washington Sea Grant Program, Seattle, Washington, USA.
49. Murphy, K. C. 2003. Report to the legislature: progress of the 2003 Spartina eradication program. Washington State Department of Agriculture, Olympia, Washington, USA.
50. Murphy, K. C., R. R. Taylor, and C. H. Phillips. 2007. Progress of the 2006 Spartina eradication program. Washington State Department of Agriculture, Olympia, Washington, USA.
51. Nathan, R., G. Perry, J. T. Cronin, A. E. Strand, and M. L. Cain. 2003. Methods for estimating long-distance dispersal. Oikos 103:261-273. (Pubitemid 37435883)
52. Neira, C., E. D. Grosholz, L. A. Levin, and R. Blake. 2006. Mechanisms generating modification of benthos following tidal flat invasion by a Spartina hybrid. Ecological Applications 16:1391-1404. (Pubitemid 44223215)
53. Patten, K., and C. O'Casey. 2007. Use of Willapa Bay, Washington, by shorebirds and waterfowl after Spartina control efforts. Journal of Field Ornithology 78:395-400. (Pubitemid 350222047)
54. Pfauth, M., M. Sytsma, and D. Isaacson. 2003. Oregon Spartina response plan. Oregon Department of Agriculture, Portland, Oregon, USA.
55. Punt, A. E., and R. Hilborn. 1997. Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis: the Bayesian approach. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 7:35-63.
56. Ratchford, S. G. 1995. Changes in the density and size of newly settled clams in Willapa Bay, Washington, due to the invasion of smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora Loisel. Thesis. University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
57. Redfield, A. C. 1972. Development of a New England salt marsh. Ecological Monographs 42:201-237.
58. Regan, T. J., M. A. McCarthy, P. W. J. Baxter, F. D. Panetta, and H. P. Possingham. 2006. Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant. Ecology Letters 9:759-766. (Pubitemid 43883024)
59. Riggs, S. 1992. Distribution of Spartina alterniflora in Padilla Bay, Washington, in 1991. Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve Technical Report Number 3. Washington State Department of Ecology, Mount Vernon, Washington, USA.
60. Rout, T. M., Y. Salomon, and M. A. McCarthy. 2009. Using sighting records to declare eradication of an invasive species. Journal of Applied Ecology 46:110-117.
61. Sayce, K. 1988. Introduced cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora Loisel., in salt marshes and tidelands of Willapa Bay, Washington. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Willapa National Wildlife Refuge, Ilwaco, Washington, USA.
62. Shah, G. L., and V. Badrinath. 1985. A contribution to the angiospermic flora of Dahanu forest division in Maharashtra state India. Journal of Economic and Taxonomic Botany 6:117-142.
63. Sharov, A. A., and A. M. Liebhold. 1998. Bioeconomics of managing the spread of exotic pest species with barrier zones. Ecological Applications 8:833-845. (Pubitemid 28382009)
64. Shea, K., and D. Kelly. 1998. Estimating biocontrol agent impact with matrix models: Carduus nutans in New Zealand. Ecological Applications 8:824-832. (Pubitemid 28382008)
65. Shea, K., and the NCEAS Working Group on Population Management. 1998. Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 13:371-375. (Pubitemid 28385527)
66. Shigesada, N., and K. Kawasaki. 1997. Biological invasions: theory and practice. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA.
67. Simberloff, D. 2003. How much information on population biology is needed to manage introduced species? Conservation Biology 17:83-92. (Pubitemid 36234402)
68. Skellam, J. G. 1951. Random dispersal in theoretical populations. Biometrika 38:196-218.
69. Somers, G. F., and D. Grant. 1981. Influence of seed source upon phenology of flowering of Spartina alterniflora Loisel and the likelihood of cross pollination. American Journal of Botany 68:6-9.
70. Spiegelhalter, D. J., N. G. Best, B. P. Carlin, and A. van der Linde. 2002. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society of London B 64:583-639.
71. Stachowicz, J. J., J. R. Terwin, R. B. Whitlatch, and R. W. Osman. 2002. Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 99:15497-15500. (Pubitemid 35403962)
72. Taylor, C. M., H. G. Davis, J. C. Civille, F. S. Grevstad, and A. Hastings. 2004. Consequences of an Allee effect in the invasion of a Pacific estuary by Spartina alterniflora. Ecology 85:3254-3266. (Pubitemid 40084775)
73. Taylor, C. M., and A. Hastings. 2004. Finding optimal control strategies for invasive species: a density-structured model for Spartina alterniflora. Journal of Applied Ecology 41:1049-1057. (Pubitemid 40033193)
74. Trenberth, K. E., and T. J. Hoar. 1996. The 1990-1995 El Nino Southern Oscillation event: longest on record. Geophysical Research Letters 23:57-60.
75. Trenberth, K. E., and T. J. Hoar. 1997. El Nino and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 24:3057-3060. (Pubitemid 28147973)
76. Vila, M., E. Weber, and C. M. D'Antonio. 2000. Conservation implications of invasion by plant hybridization. Biological Invasions 2:207-217. (Pubitemid 32235141)
77. Wade, P. R. 2000. Bayesian methods in conservation biology. Conservation Biology 14:1308-1316.
78. Ward, E. J. 2008. A review and comparison of four commonly used Bayesian and maximum likelihood model selection tools. Ecological Modelling 211:1-10.
79. WSDA [Washington State Department of Agriculture]. 2000. Spartina/purple loosestrife report to the legislature. Washington State Department of Agriculture, Olympia, Washington, USA.
80. Zipkin, E. F., C. E. Kraft, E. G. Cooch, and P. J. Sullivan. 2009. When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire? Ecological Applications 19:1585-1595.