메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 120, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 116-159

What can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities?

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; CENTRAL BANK; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; INFORMATION SYSTEM; MODEL TEST; MODEL VALIDATION; PREDICTION;

EID: 84859767408     PISSN: 00223808     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/665662     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (679)

References (56)
  • 3
    • 62349131002 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?
    • April
    • Bacchetta, Philippe, Elmar Mertens, and Eric van Wincoop. 2009. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?" J. Internat. Money and Finance 28 (April): 406-26.
    • (2009) J. Internat. Money and Finance , vol.28 , pp. 406-426
    • Bacchetta, P.1    Mertens, E.2    van Wincoop, E.3
  • 4
    • 80052663926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • News shocks and business cycles
    • April
    • Barsky, Robert, and Eric Sims. 2011. "News Shocks and Business Cycles." J. Monetary Econ. 58 (April): 273-89.
    • (2011) J. Monetary Econ , vol.58 , pp. 273-289
    • Barsky, R.1    Sims, E.2
  • 5
    • 84859764850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information, animal spirits, and the meaning of innovations in consumer confidence
    • Forthcoming
    • Barsky, Robert, and Eric Sims. Forthcoming. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence." A.E.R.
    • A.E.R.
    • Barsky, R.1    Sims, E.2
  • 6
    • 79955960148 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geography, skills or both: What explains fedwatchers' forecast accuracy of us monetary policy?
    • September
    • Berger, Helge, Michael Ehrmann, and Marcel Fratzscher. 2011. "Geography, Skills or Both: What Explains FedWatchers' Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?" J. Macroeconomics 33 (September): 420-37.
    • (2011) J. Macroeconomics , vol.33 , pp. 420-437
    • Berger, H.1    Ehrmann, M.2    Fratzscher, M.3
  • 7
    • 65949093957 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of uncertainty shocks
    • May
    • Bloom, Nicholas. 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks." Econometrica 77 (May): 623-85.
    • (2009) Econometrica , vol.77 , pp. 623-685
    • Bloom, N.1
  • 9
    • 33751101919 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations
    • January
    • Branch, William A. 2007. "Sticky Information and Model Uncertainty in Survey Data on Inflation Expectations." J. Econ. Dynamics and Control 31 (January): 245-76.
    • (2007) J. Econ. Dynamics and Control , vol.31 , pp. 245-276
    • Branch, W.A.1
  • 10
    • 63349100426 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disagreement and biases in inflation expectations
    • Capistrán, Carlos, and Allan Timmermann, March-April
    • Capistrán, Carlos, and Allan Timmermann. 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations." J. Money, Credit and Banking 41 (March-April): 365-96.
    • (2009) J. Money, Credit and Banking , vol.41 , pp. 365-396
  • 11
    • 0037331902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters
    • February
    • Carroll, Christopher D. 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters." Q.J.E. 118 (February): 269-98.
    • (2003) Q.J.E. , vol.118 , pp. 269-298
    • Carroll, C.D.1
  • 12
    • 70449089152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned, and to what end?
    • edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, Amsterdam: Elsevier Sci
    • Christiano, Lawrence, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles Evans. 1999. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned, and to What End?" In Handbook of Monetary Economics, edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, 65-148. Amsterdam: Elsevier Sci.
    • (1999) Handbook of Monetary Economics , pp. 65-148
    • Christiano, L.1    Eichenbaum, M.2    Evans, C.3
  • 13
    • 0041417748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The fed and interest rates: A high-frequency identification
    • May
    • Cochrane, John, and Monika Piazzesi. 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification." A.E.R. Papers and Proc. 92 (May): 90-95.
    • (2002) A.E.R. Papers and Proc , vol.92 , pp. 90-95
    • Cochrane, J.1    Piazzesi, M.2
  • 14
    • 77955052732 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing the sticky information phillips curve
    • February
    • Coibion, Olivier. 2010. "Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve." Rev. Econ. and Statis. 92 (February): 87-101.
    • (2010) Rev. Econ. and Statis , vol.92 , pp. 87-101
    • Coibion, O.1
  • 16
    • 84977402535 scopus 로고
    • Differential inflationary expectations and the variability of the rate of inflation: Theory and evidence
    • September
    • Cukierman, Alex, and Paul Wachtel. 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence." A.E.R. 69 (September): 595-609.
    • (1979) A.E.R. , vol.69 , pp. 595-609
    • Cukierman, A.1    Wachtel, P.2
  • 17
    • 65649102207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What do technology shocks tell us about the new keynesian paradigm?
    • May
    • Dupor, Bill, Jing Han, and Yi Chan Tsai. 2009. "What Do Technology Shocks Tell Us about the New Keynesian Paradigm?" J. Monetary Econ. 56 (May): 560-69.
    • (2009) J. Monetary Econ , vol.56 , pp. 560-569
    • Dupor, B.1    Han, J.2    Yi, C.T.3
  • 18
    • 77955054572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrating sticky information and sticky prices
    • August
    • Dupor, Bill, Tomiyuki Kitamura, and Takayuki Tsuruga. 2010. "Integrating Sticky Information and Sticky Prices." Rev. Econ. and Statis. 92 (August): 657-69.
    • (2010) Rev. Econ. and Statis. , vol.92 , pp. 657-669
    • Dupor, B.1    Kitamura, T.2    Tsuruga, T.3
  • 19
    • 40249116940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biases in macroeconomic forecasts: Irrationality or asymmetric loss?
    • March
    • Elliott, Graham, Ivana Komunjer, and Allan Timmermann. 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?" J. European Econ. Assoc. 6 (March): 122-57.
    • (2008) J. European Econ. Assoc. , vol.6 , pp. 122-157
    • Elliott, G.1    Komunjer, I.2    Timmermann, A.3
  • 20
    • 0000198452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations?
    • March
    • Gali, Jordi. 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?" A.E.R. 89 (March): 249-71.
    • (1999) A.E.R. , vol.89 , pp. 249-271
    • Gali, J.1
  • 22
    • 17544383471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange-rate puzzles and distorted beliefs
    • December
    • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Aaron Tornell. 2004. "Exchange-Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beliefs." J. Internat. Econ. 64 (December): 303-33.
    • (2004) J. Internat. Econ. , vol.64 , pp. 303-333
    • Gourinchas, P.-O.1    Tornell, A.2
  • 23
    • 0030268612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship
    • October
    • Hamilton, James D. 1996. "This Is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship." J. Monetary Econ. 38 (October): 215-20.
    • (1996) J. Monetary Econ. , vol.38 , pp. 215-220
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 24
    • 20444410849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections
    • March
    • Jorda, Oscar. 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections." A.E.R. 95 (March): 161-82.
    • (2005) A.E.R. , vol.95 , pp. 161-182
    • Jorda, O.1
  • 25
    • 33847272554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A quantitative comparison of sticky price and sticky information models of price setting
    • February
    • Kiley, Michael T. 2007. "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models of Price Setting." J. Money, Credit and Banking 39 (February): 101-25.
    • (2007) J. Money, Credit and Banking , vol.39 , pp. 101-125
    • Kiley, M.T.1
  • 26
    • 34547777356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sticky information and sticky prices
    • October
    • Klenow, Peter J., and Jonathan L. Willis. 2007. "Sticky Information and Sticky Prices." J. Monetary Econ. 54 (October): 79-99.
    • (2007) J. Monetary Econ. , vol.54 , pp. 79-99
    • Klenow, P.J.1    Willis, J.L.2
  • 27
    • 78649664241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A tale of two rigidities: Sticky prices in a sticky information environment
    • December
    • Knotek, Edward S. 2010. "A Tale of Two Rigidities: Sticky Prices in a Sticky Information Environment." J. Money, Credit and Banking 42 (December): 1543-64.
    • (2010) J. Money, Credit and Banking , vol.42 , pp. 1543-1564
    • Knotek, E.S.1
  • 28
    • 49449091487 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical comparison of sticky price and sticky information models
    • September
    • Korenok, Oleg. 2008. "Empirical Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models." J. Macroeconomics 30 (September): 906-27.
    • (2008) J. Macroeconomics , vol.30 , pp. 906-927
    • Korenok, O.1
  • 29
    • 0001519332 scopus 로고
    • Time to build and aggregate fluctuations
    • November
    • Kydland, Finn E., and Edward C. Prescott. 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations." Econometrica 50 (November): 1345-70.
    • (1982) Econometrica , vol.50 , pp. 1345-1370
    • Kydland, F.E.1    Prescott, E.C.2
  • 30
    • 70149088411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A theory of demand shocks
    • December
    • Lorenzoni, Guido. 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks." A.E.R. 99 (December): 2050-84.
    • (2009) A.E.R. , vol.99 , pp. 2050-2084
    • Lorenzoni, G.1
  • 31
    • 49649131398 scopus 로고
    • Expectations and the neutrality of money
    • April
    • Lucas, Robert E. 1972. "Expectations and the Neutrality of Money." J. Econ. Theory 4 (April): 103-24.
    • (1972) J. Econ. Theory , vol.4 , pp. 103-124
    • Lucas, R.E.1
  • 32
    • 70149083897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sectoral price data and models of price setting
    • October
    • Mackowiak, Bartosz, Emanuel Moench, and Mirko Wiederholt. 2009. "Sectoral Price Data and Models of Price Setting." J. Monetary Econ. 56 (October): 78-99.
    • (2009) J. Monetary Econ , vol.56 , pp. 78-99
    • Mackowiak, B.1    Moench, E.2    Wiederholt, M.3
  • 34
    • 70149084997 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention
    • June
    • Mackowiak, Bartosz, and Mirko Wiederholt. 2009b. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention." A.E.R. 99 (June): 769-803.
    • (2009) A.E.R. , vol.99 , pp. 769-803
    • Mackowiak, B.1    Wiederholt, M.2
  • 35
    • 0036867964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve
    • November
    • Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Ricardo Reis. 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve." Q.J.E. 117 (November): 1295-1328.
    • (2002) Q.J.E. , vol.117 , pp. 1295-1328
    • Mankiw, N.G.1    Reis, R.2
  • 36
    • 36749058882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sticky information in general equilibrium
    • April-May
    • Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Ricardo Reis. 2007. "Sticky Information in General Equilibrium." J. European Econ. Assoc. 5 (April-May): 603-13.
    • (2007) J. European Econ. Assoc. , vol.5 , pp. 603-613
    • Mankiw, N.G.1    Reis, R.2
  • 37
    • 21244501699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disagreement about inflation expectations
    • edited by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
    • Mankiw, N. Gregory, Ricardo Reis, and Justin Wolfers. 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations." In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, edited by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, 209-48. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    • (2004) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 , pp. 209-248
    • Mankiw, N.G.1    Reis, R.2    Wolfers, J.3
  • 38
    • 34247389088 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Survey measures of expected inflation: Revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality
    • Summer
    • Mehra, Yash P. 2002. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality." Fed. Reserve Bank Richmond Econ. Q. 88 (Summer): 17-36.
    • (2002) Fed. Reserve Bank Richmond Econ. Q , vol.88 , pp. 17-36
    • Mehra, Y.P.1
  • 39
    • 0013082741 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Social value of public information
    • December
    • Morris, Stephen, and Hyun Song Shin. 2002. "Social Value of Public Information." A.E.R. 92 (December): 1521-34.
    • (2002) A.E.R. , vol.92 , pp. 1521-1534
    • Morris, S.1    Shin, H.S.2
  • 40
    • 84952209977 scopus 로고
    • Estimation and inference in two-step econometric models
    • October
    • Murphy, Kevin M., and Robert H. Topel. 1985. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models." J. Bus. and Econ. Statis. 3 (October): 370-79.
    • (1985) J. Bus. and Econ. Statis. , vol.3 , pp. 370-379
    • Murphy, K.M.1    Topel, R.H.2
  • 41
    • 0001447776 scopus 로고
    • Econometric issues in the analysis of regressions with generated regressors
    • February
    • Pagan, Adrian. 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors." Internat. Econ. Rev. 25 (February): 221-47.
    • (1984) Internat. Econ. Rev. , vol.25 , pp. 221-247
    • Pagan, A.1
  • 42
    • 77957754313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion
    • October
    • Patton, Andrew J., and Allan Timmermann. 2010. "Why Do Forecasters Disagree? Lessons from the Term Structure of Cross-Sectional Dispersion." J. Monetary Econ. 57 (October): 803-20.
    • (2010) J. Monetary Econ. , vol.57 , pp. 803-820
    • Patton, A.J.1    Timmermann, A.2
  • 43
    • 42449093617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Survey expectations
    • edited by G. Elliott, C. W. J. Granger, and A. Timmermann. Amsterdam: North-Holland
    • Pesaran, M. Hashem, and Martin Weale. 2006. "Survey Expectations." In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edited by G. Elliott, C. W. J. Granger, and A. Timmermann. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
    • (2006) Handbook of Economic Forecasting
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Weale, M.2
  • 45
    • 33745865139 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inattentive producers
    • July
    • Reis, Ricardo. 2006. "Inattentive Producers." Rev. Econ. Studies 73 (July): 793-821.
    • (2006) Rev. Econ. Studies , vol.73 , pp. 793-821
    • Reis, R.1
  • 46
    • 85017141329 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal monetary policy rules in an estimated sticky-information model
    • July
    • Reis, Ricardo. 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model." American Econ. J.: Macroeconomics 1 (July): 1-28.
    • (2009) American Econ. J.: Macroeconomics , vol.1 , pp. 1-28
    • Reis, R.1
  • 47
    • 0031184830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is inflation sticky?
    • January
    • Roberts, John M. 1997. "Is Inflation Sticky?" J. Monetary Econ. 39 (January): 173-96.
    • (1997) J. Monetary Econ , vol.39 , pp. 173-196
    • Roberts, J.M.1
  • 48
    • 0003831291 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Finance and Economics Discussion Paper no. 1998-43, Board Governors Fed. Reserve System, Washington, DC
    • Roberts, John M. 1998. "Inflation Expectations and the Transmission of Monetary Policy." Finance and Economics Discussion Paper no. 1998-43, Board Governors Fed. Reserve System, Washington, DC.
    • (1998) Inflation Expectations and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
    • Roberts, J.M.1
  • 49
    • 33745078887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new measure of monetary shocks: Derivation and implications
    • September
    • Romer, Christina, and David H. Romer. 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications." A.E.R. 94 (September): 1055-84.
    • (2004) A.E.R. , vol.94 , pp. 1055-1084
    • Romer, C.1    Romer, D.H.2
  • 50
    • 44949152501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The FOMC versus the staff: Where can monetary policymakers add value?
    • May
    • Romer, Christina, and David H. Romer. 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?" A.E.R. Papers and Proc. 98 (May): 230-35.
    • (2008) A.E.R. Papers and Proc. , vol.98 , pp. 230-235
    • Romer, C.1    Romer, D.H.2
  • 51
    • 77956101902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks
    • June
    • Romer, Christina, and David H. Romer. 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks." A.E.R. 100 (June): 763-801.
    • (2010) A.E.R. , vol.100 , pp. 763-801
    • Romer, C.1    Romer, D.H.2
  • 53
    • 0038521562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implications of rational inattention
    • April
    • Sims, Christopher A. 2003. "Implications of Rational Inattention." J. Monetary Econ. 50 (April): 665-90.
    • (2003) J. Monetary Econ. , vol.50 , pp. 665-690
    • Sims, C.A.1
  • 54
    • 0000745585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Survey measures of expected U.S. Inflation
    • Fall
    • Taylor, Lloyd B., Jr. 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation." J. Econ. Perspectives 13 (Fall): 125-44.
    • (1999) J. Econ. Perspectives , vol.13 , pp. 125-144
    • Taylor, L.B.1
  • 55
    • 13444277466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Imperfect common knowledge and the effects of monetary policy
    • edited by P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz, and M. Woodford. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
    • Woodford, Michael. 2003a. "Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy." In Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund Phelps, edited by P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz, and M. Woodford. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
    • (2003) Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund Phelps
    • Woodford, M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.