Evaluation of five risk prediction models for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using the UK National Vascular Database

British Journal of Surgery

Volumn 99, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 673-679

  Grant, S W ^a   Grayson, A D ^b   Mitchell, D C ^c   McCollum, C N ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

^b LIVERPOOL HEART AND CHEST HOSPITAL   (United Kingdom)

^c ROYAL COLLEGE OF SURGEONS OF ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ABDOMINAL AORTA ANEURYSM; AGED; ARTICLE; ELECTIVE SURGERY; EVALUATION; FEMALE; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMAN; MALE; METHODOLOGY; MORTALITY; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNITED KINGDOM; VALIDATION STUDY;

AGED; AORTIC ANEURYSM, ABDOMINAL; FEMALE; GREAT BRITAIN; HOSPITAL MORTALITY; HUMANS; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; ROC CURVE; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS INDEX; SURGICAL PROCEDURES, ELECTIVE;

EID: 84859563552     PISSN: 00071323     EISSN: 13652168     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bjs.8731     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Lees T, Stansby G, Baker S, Mitchell D, Holt P, Taylor P, et al., The National Vascular Database Report. Vascular Society of Great Britain and Ireland: London, 2009.
2. Powell JT, Brown LC, Forbes JF, Fowkes FG, Greenhalgh RM, Ruckley CV, et al., Final 12-year follow-up of surgery versus surveillance in the UK small aneurysm trial. Br J Surg 2007; 94: 702-708.
3. Lederle FA, Wilson SE, Johnson GR, Reinke DB, Littooy FN, Acher CW, et al.,; Aneurysm Detection and Management Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study Group. Immediate repair compared with surveillance of small abdominal aortic aneurysms. N Engl J Med 2002; 346: 1437-1444.
4. Cao P, De Rango P, Verzini F, Parlani G, Romano L, Cieri E,. Comparison of surveillance versus aortic endografting for small aneurysm repair (CAESAR): results from a randomised trial. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2011; 41: 13-25.
5. Ouriel K, Clair DG, Kent KC, Zarins CK,; Positive Impact of Endovascular Options for treating Aneurysms Early (PIVOTAL) Investigators. Endovascular repair compared with surveillance for patients with small abdominal aortic aneurysms. J Vasc Surg 2010; 51: 1081-1087.
6. Grant SW, Grayson AD, Jackson M, Au J, Fabri BM, Grotte G, et al., Does the choice of risk-adjustment model influence the outcome of surgeon-specific mortality analysis? A retrospective analysis of 14 637 patients under 31 surgeons. Heart 2008; 94: 1044-1049.
7. Samy AK, Murray G, MacBain G,. Glasgow aneurysm score. Cardiovasc Surg 1994; 2: 41-44.
8. Patterson BO, Holt PJE, Hinchliffe R, Loftus IM, Thompson MM,. Predicting risk in elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a systematic review of current evidence. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2008; 36: 637-645.
9. Giles KA, Schermerhorn ML, O'Malley AJ, Cotterill P, Jhaveri A, Pomposelli FB, et al., Risk prediction for perioperative mortality of endovascular vs open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms using the Medicare population. J Vasc Surg 2009; 50: 256-262.
10. Grant SW, Grayson AD, Purkayastha D, Wilson SD, McCollum C,; participants in the Vascular Governance North West Programme. Logistic risk model for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Br J Surg 2011; 98: 652-658.
11. Tang T, Walsh SR, Prytherch DR, Lees T, Varty K, Boyle JR,; Audit Research Committee of the Vascular Society of Great Britain and Ireland. VBHOM, a data economic model for predicting the outcome after open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery. Br J Surg 2007; 94: 717-721.
12. Prytherch DR, Ridler BMF, Beard JD, Earnshaw JJ,; Audit and Research Committee, The Vascular Surgical Society of Great Britian and Ireland. A model for national outcome audit in vascular surgery. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2001; 21: 477-483.
13. Neary WD, Heather BP, Earnshaw JJ,. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM). Br J Surg 2003; 90: 157-165.
14. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ,. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 1982; 143: 29-36.
15. Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Quality Improvement Programme. [accessed 5 November 2011].
16. Patterson BO, Holt PJ, Hinchliffe R, Nordon IM, Loftus IM, Thompson MM,. Existing risk prediction methods for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair do not predict short-term outcome following endovascular repair. J Vasc Surg 2010; 52: 25-30.
17. Tang TY, Walsh SR, Prytherch DR, Wijewardena C, Gaunt ME, Varty K, et al., POSSUM models in open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2007; 34: 499-504.
18. Tang TY, Walsh SR, Fanshawe TR, Seppi V, Sadat U, Hayes PD, et al., Comparison of risk-scoring methods in predicting the immediate outcome after elective open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2007; 34: 505-513.
19. Biancari F, Leo E, Ylönen K, Vaarala MH, Rainio P, Juvonen T,. Value of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting the immediate and long-term outcome after elective open repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm. Br J Surg 2003; 90: 838-844.
20. Bhatti F, Grayson AD, Grotte G, Fabri BM, Au J, Jones M, et al.,; North West Quality Improvement Programme in Cardiac Interventions. The logistic EuroSCORE in cardiac surgery: how well does it predict operative risk? Heart 2006; 92: 1817-1820.
21. Jin RY, Furnary AP, Fine SC, Blackstone EH, Grunkemeier GL,. Using Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk models for risk-adjusting cardiac surgery results. Ann Thorac Surg 2010; 89: 677-682.
22. Barnes M, Boult M, Maddern G, Fitridge R,. A model to predict outcomes for endovascular aneurysm repair using preoperative variables. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2008; 35: 571-579.