Simulating demography and housing demand in an urban region under scenarios of growth and shrinkage

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design

Volumn 39, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 229-246

  Lauf, Steffen ^a   Haase, Dagmar ^b   Seppelt, Ralf ^b   Schwarz, Nina ^b  

^a TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN   (Germany)

^b HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

Author keywords

Demographic change; Germany; Households; Residential space; Urban simulation

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DEMAND ANALYSIS; DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION; LOW INCOME HOUSING; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION GROWTH; SUBURBANIZATION; URBAN AREA; URBAN GROWTH; URBAN HOUSING; URBAN PLANNING;

GERMANY;

EID: 84859458854     PISSN: 02658135     EISSN: 14723417     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1068/b36046t     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Banzhaf E, Kindler A, Haase D, 2007, "Monitoring, mapping and modelling urban decline: a multi-scale approach for Leipzig" EARSeL eProceedings 6 101-114
2. Batty M, 2001, "Polynucleated urban landscapes" Urban Studies 38 635-655
3. Berling-Wolff S, Wu J, 2004, "Modelling urban landscape dynamics: a review" Ecological Research 19 119-129
4. Börsch-Supan A, Heiss F, Seko M, 2001, "Housing demand in Germany and Japan" Journal of Housing Economics 10 229-252
5. Buzar S, Ogden P, Hall R, 2005, "Households matter: the quiet demography of urban transformation" Progress of Human Geography 29 413-436
6. Buzar S, Ogden P, Hall R, Haase A, Kabisch S, Steinführer A, 2007, "Splintering urban populations: emergent landscapes of reurbanization in four European cities" Urban Studies 44(3) 5-6
7. Champion T, 2001, "Urbanization, suburbanization, counterurbanisation, reurbanisation", in Handbook of Urban Studies Ed. R Paddison (Sage, London) pp 143-161
8. City of Leipzig, 1993-2006 Municipal Statistics Agency for Statistics and Elections, http://www.leipzig.de
9. Couch C, Karecha J, Nuissl H, Rink D, 2005, "Decline and sprawl: an evolving type of urban development-observed in Liverpool and Leipzig" European Planning Studies 1391) 117-136
10. Dhawan R, 2006, "System dynamics and its impact on managerial decision making", School of Business, University of Sydney (Hrsg.), Sydney
11. Engelen G, Lavalle C, Barredo J, van der Meulen M, White R, 2007, "The Moland modelling framework for urban and regional land-use dynamics", in Modelling Land-use Change, Progress and Applications Eds E Koomen, J Stillwell, A Bakema, H J Scholten (Springer, Dordrecht) pp 297-319
12. EPA, 2000 Projecting Land-use Change. A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-use patterns EPA/600/R-00/98, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, http://faculty.washington.edu/pwaddell/Models/REPORTfinal2.pdf
13. Eppink F, van den Bergh J, Rietveld P, 2004, "Modelling biodiversity and land use: urban growth, agriculture and nature in a wetland area" Ecological Economics 51 (3-4) 201-216
14. Eskinasi M, Rouwette E, 2004, "Simulating the urban transformation process in the Haaglanden region, the Netherlands", paper presented at the 2004 International System Dynamics Conference, Oxford, http://www.roag.nl/tekst/HaaglandenFinalPaper.PDF
15. Ettema D, de Jong K, Timmermans H, Bakema A, 2007, "PUMA: multi-agent modelling of urban systems", in Modelling Land-Use Change, Progress and Applications Eds E Koomen, J Stillwell, A Bakema, H J Scholten (Springer, Dordrecht) pp 237-258
16. Favell A, 2008 Eurostars and Eurocities: Free Movement and Mobility in an Integrating Europe (Blackwell, Malden, MD)
17. Forrester J W, 1969 Urban Dynamics (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA)
18. Forrester J W, 1975, "Counterintuitive behavior of social systems", in Collected Papers of JW Forrester (Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA)
19. Gober P, 1990, "The urban demographic landscape: a geographic perspective", in Housing Demography: Linking Demographic Structure and Housing Markets Ed. D Myers (University of Wisconsin Press, Madison,WI) pp 232-248
20. Haase A, 2008, "Reurbanisation-an analysis of the interaction between urban and demographic change: a comparison between European cities" Die Erde 139(4) 1-22
21. Haase A, Kabisch S, Steinführer A, Fritzsche A, 2005, "Reurbanising the inner city: driving forces, target groups and their housing preferences", Final research report, part b sociology, ReUrban Mobil, Leipzig, http://www.reurban-mobil.com
22. Haase D, Haase A, 2007, "Do European social science data serve to feed agent-based simulation models on residential mobility in shrinking cities? ", in Europe and its Regions: The Usage of European Regionalised Social Science Data Eds G Grözinger,W Matiaske, K Spieβ (Cambridge Scholars Publishing, Newcastle upon Tyne) pp 227-250
23. Haase D, Nuissl H, 2007, "Does urban sprawl drive changes in the water balance and policy? The case of Leipzig (Germany) 1870-2003" Landscape and Urban Planning 80 1-13
24. Haase D, Schwarz N, 2009, "Simulation models on human-nature interactions in urban landscapes-a review including system dynamics, cellular automata and agent-based approaches" Living Reviews in Landscape Research 3 2
25. Haase D, Seppelt R, Haase A, 2007, "Land use impacts of demographic change-lessons from eastern German urban regions", in Use of Landscape Sciences for the Assessment of Environmental Security Eds I Petrosillo, FMüller, K B Jones, G Zurlini, K Krauze, S Victorov, B L Li,WG Kepner (Springer, Berlin) pp 329-344
26. Haase D, Haase A, Bischoff P, Kabisch S, 2008, "Guidelines for the 'perfect inner city'discussing the appropriateness of monitoring approaches for reurbanisation" European Planning Studies 16 1075-1100
27. Haghani A, Lee S, Byun J, 2003a, "A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling, part I: methodology" Journal of Advanced Transportation 37(1) 1-41
28. Haghani A, Lee S, Byun J, 2003b, "A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling, part II: application" Journal of Advanced Transportation 37(1) 43-92
29. Jessen J, 2006, "Urban renewal-a look back to the future. The importance of models in renewing urban planning" German Journal of Urban Studies 45(1) 1-17
30. Kabisch N, Haase D, 2011, "Diversifying European agglomerations: evidence of urban population trends for the 21st century" Population, Space and Place 17 236-253
31. Kabisch S, 2005, "Empirical analysis on housing vacancy and urban shrinkage", in Methodologies in Housing Research Eds D U Vestbro,Y Hürol, N Wilkinson (Urban International Press, Gateshead) pp 188-205
32. Kabisch S, Kindler A, Rink D, 1997 Social Atlas of the City of Leipzig (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig)
33. Karsten L, 2003, "Family gentrifiers: challenging the city as a place simultaneously to build a career and to raise children" Urban Studies 40 2573-2585
34. Kasanko M, Barredo J I, Lavalle C, McCormick N, Demicheli L, Sagris V, Brezger A, 2006, "Are European cities becoming dispersed? " Landscape and Urban Planning 77 111-130
35. Kemper F-J, 2001, "Wohnformen, Altersstruktur, Lebenszyklusphasen" Berichte zur deutchen Landeskunde 75(2-3) 137-146
36. Landis J, Zhang M, 1998a, "The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part I: Model logic and theory" Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 25 657-666
37. Landis J, Zhang M, 1998b, "The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part II: Specification and calibration results of the land-use change model" Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 25 795-824
38. Lee G S, Schmidt-Dengler P, Felderer B, Helmenstein C, 2003, "Austrian demography and housing demand: is there a connection? " Empirica 28 259-276
39. Loibl W, Tötzer T, Köstl M, Steinnocher K, 2007, "Simulation of polycentric urban growth dynamics through agents", in Modelling Land-use Change, Progress and Applications Eds E Koomen, J Stillwell, A Bakema, H J Scholten (Springer, Dordrecht) pp 219-235
40. Mankiw N G, Weil D N, 1989, "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market" Regional Science and Urban Economics 19 235-258
41. Muetzelfeldt R, 2002, "Simulation models using the Simile visual modelling environment. Practical session", Simulation European Advanced Study Course MODLUC: Modelling Land Use Change, Louvain
42. Muetzelfeldt R, Massheder J, 2002, "The Simile visual modelling environment" European Journal of Agronomy 18(3-4) 345-358
43. Nijkamp P, van Wissen L, Rima A, 1993, "A household life cycle model for residential relocation behaviour" Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 27(1) 35-53
44. Nuissl H, Rink D, 2005, "The 'production'of urban sprawl in eastern Germany as a phenomenon of post-socialist transformation" Cities 22 123-134
45. Ogden P, Hall R, 2000, "Households, reurbanisation and the rise of living alone in the principal French cities, 1975-90" Urban Studies 37 367-390
46. Onsted J, 2002 SCOPE: AModification and Application of the Forrester Model to the South Coast of Santa Barbara County http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/%7Eonsted/title.html
47. Parker D C, Manson S M, Janssen M A, Hoffman M J, Deadman P, 2003, "Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land use and land cover change: a review"Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93 314-337
48. Priemus H, 2003, "Changing urban housing markets in advanced economies, housing" Theory and Society 21 2-16
49. Raux C, 2003, "A system dynamics model for the urban travel system", paper presented at the European Transport Conference 2003, Strasbourg, 8-10 October, http://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00092186v1.html
50. Ravetz J, 2000 City Region 2020: Integrated Planning for a Sustainable Environment (Earthscan, London)
51. Salvini P, Miller E, 2005, "ILUTE: an operational prototype of a comprehensive microsimulation model of urban systems" Networks and Spatial Economics 5 217-234
52. Sanders P, Sanders F, 2004, "Spatial urban dynamics. Avision on the future of urban dynamics: Forrester revisited", paper presented at the 2004 International System Dynamics Conference, Oxford, http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2004/SDS2004/PAPERS/119SANDE.pdf
53. Schwarz N, Haase D, Seppelt R, 2010, "Omnipresent sprawl? A review of urban simulation models with respect to urban shrinkage" Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 37 265-283
54. Simulistics Ltd, 2007, "Simulistics model life: welcome to simulistics", http://www.simulistics.com
55. Sterman J D, 2000 Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston, MA)
56. Sterman J D, 2002, "All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a system scientist" System Dynamics Review 18 501-531.
57. Storper M, Manville M, 2006, "Behaviour, preferences and cities: urban theory and urban resurgence" Urban Studies 43 1247-1274
58. Strauch D, Moeckel R, Wegener M, Gräfe J, Mühlhans H, Rindsfüser G, Beckmann K-J, 2003, "Linking transport and land use planning: the microscopic dynamic simulation model ILUMASS", papers presented at the 7th International Conference on GeoComputation, University of Southampton, 8-10 September, http://www.geocomputation.org/2003/Papers/StrauchPaper.pdf
59. Turok I, Mykhnenko V, 2006, "Resurgent European cities? " Ga WC Research Bulletin 216(A)
60. van de Kaa D, 1987, "Europe's second demographic transition" Population Bulletin 42 1-57
61. van de Kaa D, 2004, "Is the second demographic transition a useful research concept? " Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 4-10
62. Verburg P, Overmars K, 2007, "Dynamic simulation of land-use change trajectories with the CLUE-s model", in Modelling Land-use Change, Progress and Applications Eds E Koomen, J Stillwell, A Bakema, H J Scholten (Springer, Dordrect) pp 321-335
63. Verburg P, Schot P, Dijst M, Veldkamp A, 2004, "Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities" GeoJournal 61 309-324
64. Waddell P, Borning A, Noth M, Freier N, Becke M, Ulfarsson G, 2003, "Microsimulation of urban development and location choices: design and implementation of UrbanSim" Networks and Spatial Economics 3(1) 43-67
65. Wegener M, Spiekermann G, 1996, "The potential of micro-simulation for urban models Microsimulation for urban and regional policy analysis" European Research in Regional Science 6 149-163